Monday, January 8, 2018

2018 Times Up

We begin 2018 and “The Year of the Dog” should be very interesting.

It will be “Times Up” for many individuals and causes this coming year, here is what Rink Rats thinks will go down in the coming year.

2018 DEPRESSION TOPICS -  U.S. is starting to see notable declines in areas that matter most to regular citizens:

We're dying sooner.

Student debt is piling up.

Homes are out of reach for the youths.

Mass shootings result in a shrug.

The opioid crisis is staggering.

Our education system is middling.

Our infrastructure is falling behind.

The United States is still the only developed country — and just one of a handful overall — that doesn't guarantee paid maternity leave.

We drink too much.

Fewer people want to visit.

2018 RISKS - China loves a vacuum: China is setting international standards [on trade and investment, tech, values, and security] with less resistance than ever before.

Accidents: It's impossible to ignore the risk of a major crisis today, because there are too many places where a misstep or misjudgment could provoke serious international conflict.

Global tech cold war: Achieving dominance in emerging technologies is the world's most important battle for economic power.

Erosion of institutions: Conflict will become more frequent, decision-making degraded, and internal chaos common.

This is a White House that's headed toward massive distraction from a Mueller investigation, over and under for impeachment are now thirteen months.

And maybe the most sobering of all: The decline of U.S. influence in the world will accelerate in 2018.

2018 OPTIMISM - After a dismal run in world politics, it is certainly time to be reminded that there can be good, as well as bad, surprises.

We predict that most of the big risks that currently worry pundits will not happen.

There will not be a war on the Korean peninsula, nor will there be one in the South China Sea or in Eastern Europe. The EU will not fall apart, Brexit negotiations will not break down and markets will not crash. By contrast, there will be big and positive change in the Middle East. And England will win the World Cup.

It may be hard to believe in the United States, but 2017 was again the best year in history, based on the aggregate well-being of humanity. People have never before lived so long, so well or so freely.

Oil prices are projected to be hovering higher this year than in previous years. One big question is whether oil companies will boost their investments and ward off a supply crunch — and subsequently much higher prices — in a few years, as the International Energy Agency has been warning for at least a year.

Saudi Aramco would be the world's biggest initial public offering ever. The state-owned oil giant in Saudi Arabia, the biggest oil-producing company in the world, has said it's sticking with its plans to sell up to 5% of its shares this year.

2018 will be a year when democratic governments can either work together to safeguard electoral processes or face a future where democracy is more fragile.

This needs to include work to protect campaigns from hacking, address social media issues, ensure the integrity of voting results, and protect vital census processes.

While technology companies have a high responsibility to help, there is no substitute for the effective and unified voices of democratic governments themselves.

NEW YEAR RESOLUTIONS (A SAMPLE)

Keep my inbox more organized
With over 10,000 emails in my inbox, I am going to start using rules and folders to stay on top of my messages. It takes time to set up but will for sure lead to a more productive year. I will also schedule time for periodic inbox cleanups.

Put cash to work
Letting cash build up and sit in bank deposits or money market funds might not be the best strategy depending on your goals. You might be missing out on interest that could accrue from bonds and not keep pace with the Federal Reserve’s (Fed’s) interest rate hikes. Consider short-term bond exchange traded funds (ETFs) for the core of your portfolio.

Stick to the long-term plan
2018 is likely to see a number of market disruptions, but don’t panic! Possible catalysts include continued Fed rate hikes, the flattening of the yield curve, the potential resurfacing of inflation, a pickup in equity volatility, and geopolitical events. Don’t be distracted by the latest news and make rushed portfolio changes. Know your long-term portfolio plan and stick to it.

Simplify and streamline my life
We all end up with an accumulation of possessions and responsibilities that individually may make sense but in aggregate are unmanageable.

Home in on costs
Consider replacing the complicated and expensive (such as an active growth mutual fund that’s delivered index-like returns for the last 10 years) with more transparent, consistent and cost effective solutions (like a smart beta momentum ETF). Learn more about the differences between ETFs and mutual funds.

Prepare for volatility
Brace for some ups and downs in markets, but consider positioning your portfolio to pursue income through preferred stocks, total shareholder payout and high yield bond-oriented ETFs.

Strike a balance
Stay balanced with a meaningful focus across all key aspects of life: work, family and health, and learning. For investing, the same approach applies: Consider thoughtfully allocating your portfolios across asset classes, regions, sectors and factors.

Listen more
Stay humble and accept I don’t have all the answers. I want to listen and learn more, and talk less.

Seek out opinions different than your own

Live by design, not by default

Update Your Software
This rule of thumb applies to anything that touches your information security: operating systems, antivirus software, your internet router, your password management app and your web browsers. Keep these important components up to date with the latest security enhancements, and you will be better off than most.

Read Privacy Policies
So make it a habit to read a company’s privacy policy. As boring as it sounds, a bit of reading will go a long way. I recently considered using a free internet service for sending a fax, and upon reading the privacy policy I learned that the company collects sensitive information like Social Security numbers and driver’s license numbers. (I went out and found a traditional fax machine instead.)

Delete Unnecessary Apps
At least once a year, it’s worthwhile to do an audit on your third-party apps. On your smartphone, delete apps that you have not touched in several months. For a clean break, in some cases you will also have to visit the company’s website and request that your account be deleted entirely
Also check your primary online accounts, like Facebook, Twitter or Google, to see which apps are hooked into them. Chances are you have used those accounts to quickly sign up for a web tool or app. The ones you never use may still be leeching off your personal data, so you should disable them.
On Facebook, go to the settings page and click on the Apps tab to see which apps are connected to the account. On your Google account page, you can find a similar apps list labeled “Connected apps & sites.” And on Twitter, go to the Apps page under “Settings and privacy.”
On my neglected Facebook account, for example, I had 82 connected apps. After removing many unused or defunct apps, like LivingSocial, Words With Friends and Draw Something, I had 32 left.

Use a VPN
In April, Congress voted to overturn privacy rules that would have made it more difficult for broadband providers like Comcast and Charter to track and sell information about your browsing history to advertisers. The stronger privacy rules never went into effect, meaning nothing changed. But the privacy repeal underlined the sheer magnitude of data that internet service providers can collect and share about you. Subscribing to a virtual private network, or VPN, is a meaningful safeguard for your online privacy.
When you browse the web, a broadband provider helps route your device’s internet traffic to each destination website. Every device you use has an identifier consisting of a string of numbers, also known as an IP address. When you are on the internet, a service provider can see which devices you use and which sites you visit.

RINK RATS 2018 PORTFOLIO – My portfolio for purchase this 2018, buy was made Friday January 5. We will track throughout 2018, we need your prayers.

General Electric: Shares of General Electric Co. GE  have declined over 42% in the past 12 months to levels not seen since the late 1990s. Chalk it up to a string of disappointing quarters and a dividend cut. But the venerable industrial giant is not down for the count. Buy @ $18.54 10 shares = $185.40

Weatherford International, Ltd.: WFT under prior management, Weatherford branched out into too many businesses, and took on too much debt to do so. That didn’t work out so well. The stock now trades near an eight-year low. Under the new leadership of Haliburton Co. HAL, veteran Mark McCollum, Weatherford is unloading non-core assets and paying down debt. Buy @ $3.87 10 shares = $38.70

Walt Disney: DIS shares have been beaten down too far by investors overly worried about weakness in its ESPN division, and competition from Netflix Inc. NFLX,  and Amazon.com Inc. AMZN. After all, Disney has great content, too. And it’s bulking up with a planned purchase of the entertainment assets of 21st Century Fox Inc. FOX. Buy @ $111.62 10 shares = $1,116.20

Merck & Co.:  MRK stock has been hit by concerns about the prospects for cancer drug Keytruda, and upcoming competition as drugs roll off patent. Those worries have knocked Merck shares down to attractive levels. It trades for around 14 times forward earnings, compared with a 10-year average price-to-earnings multiple of 19. This is one of the highest-quality pharmaceutical companies out there, its strong pipeline of drug candidates and solid financial strength. Buy @ $56.99 10 shares = $569.90

Fluor Corp.: FLR  in engineering and construction. Nobody can do big construction projects like Fluor, always a RR favorite. Buy @ $53.41 10 shares = $534.10

Cummins Inc.: CMI which makes engines used in heavy construction equipment like earth movers. Infrastructure could be a big deal, especially for companies that will benefit. Two of them happen to look relatively cheap right now (FLR and CMI), because their dividend yields are not too far from historical highs. Buy @ $181.46 10 shares = $1,814.60

MRC Global Inc.: MRC a huge distributor of equipment used in energy production and industry, like pipes, valves and fitting products. The company has been cutting costs, paying down debt and repurchasing shares. Meanwhile, its customers are increasing their spending because of strength in energy and the economy. Buy @ $17.59 10 shares = $175.90

Michaels Cos.: MIK a large arts-and-crafts retail chain. Unlike a lot of retailers, Michaels isn’t beaten down by worries about competition from Amazon. But this makes sense because customers like to see and touch crafts products before they buy them, to make sure they are right for the task at hand. Buy $24.55 10 shares = $245.50

Tellurian Inc.: TELL an undiscovered company that will become a big player in liquid natural gas (LNG) exports over the next few years. How do I know this? I don’t, for sure. But it’s a reasonably safe bet given that CEO and founder Charif Souki and his management team are responsible for creating 25% of the LNG export capacity around the globe. Buy @ $11.08 10 shares = $110.80

Lending Club Corp.: LC an online peer-to-peer lending platform. LendingClub recently tightened its lending standards, which hurt loan growth, so the company missed earnings estimates and guided down. But it still expects 15%-20% annual revenue growth over the next few years. This seems plausible given how many people with OK credit would like to refinance their credit card debt with loans. Lending Club estimates $300 billion to $350 billion in credit card debt could potentially be refinanced in this way. Buy @ $4.07 10 shares = $40.70

BIRTHDAYS THIS WEEK – Birthday wishes and thoughts this week to Bob Earhart …famous pin ball wizard; Natalie Gulbis (35) Newport Beach, CA.; Miguel Angel Jimenez (54) Madrid Spain; Henry Kravis (74) New York, NY.; Walter Mondale (90) Edina, MN.; Charles Osgood (85) Whispering Pines, NC.; Sander Vanocur (90) Tucson, AZ.

2018 WEIGHT LOSS TIP, SOUP - Soup is a good choice as an appetizer, or your main meal if you’re trying to lose weight. The water in broth-based soups stretches the flavor of meats, veggies, spices, and other tasty morsels without adding calories. It fills your tank faster and satisfies hunger longer than other heavier foods. Plus, it’s hard to gulp or guzzle soup if it’s hot. Eating slowly gives your body enough time to signal the brain that you’ve had enough.

Want your soup ready when you get home at the end of the day? Try using a slow cooker. They’re great for soups made with meat. Slow-simmering soup boosts flavors, cuts prep time, and does the cooking while you’re away. It can trim your budget, too. The slow, low technique tenderizes tough, lean cuts, which cost less than prime. Always thaw meat before you put it in a slow cooker to be sure it cooks through.

Many veggies lose nutrients when you boil them, but a few get better when the heat is on. Canned tomatoes can be more healthy than vine-ripe because cooking breaks them down, releasing lycopene and chemicals that are good for your heart. Processed corn and spinach have more lutein, an antioxidant that protects your eyes. Have these quick-start items in your pantry for your own homemade soup.

Finally, scientists have proven what grandmas knew all along: Chicken soup is a feel-good food when you’re down with a cold. The steamy, salty broth opens stuffy sinuses and thins mucus so it drains. It warms and soothes sore throats and quiets coughs. The chicken, onions, garlic, and other stuff in it can help fight inflammation. But be careful. Too much salt can cause water retention and contribute to swelling.

Days until the 2018 election: 301

IRS FILING SEASON: Tax-filing season will begin this year on Jan. 29, according to an IRS announcement Thursday. The agency said that it "set the Jan. 29 opening date to ensure the security and readiness of key tax processing systems in advance of the opening and to assess the potential impact of tax legislation on 2017 tax returns." It will run through April 17 rather than the usual April 15 deadline because April 15 falls on a Sunday and the following day is a legal holiday in Washington, D.C. - Emancipation Day. The agency also warned that it won't begin issuing refunds to people claiming the earned income tax credit or the refundable portion of the child credit until mid-February. That's because a 2015 law requires the IRS to hang on to those refunds longer so they can scrutinize them for possible fraud.

TEXTBOOKS, PENCILS AND TAMPONS: School districts in California and Illinois have begun stocking student restrooms with free menstrual hygiene products, as legislation aimed at keeping low-income students in school takes effect this week. In the Golden State, any middle school or high school where at least 40 percent of students meet the federal poverty threshold must now offer tampons and sanitary pads in at least half of the building's restrooms. Illinois' law, IL HB3215 (17R) , is much more expansive, covering any school serving students in grades six through 12.

At least three other states are considering similar proposals, aimed at ensuring that girls who can't afford the products stay in school during their periods and are able to learn comfortably. Proposals pending in Tennessee and Washington state would compel schools to offer the products at no cost regardless of their low-income population, according to the National Conference of State Legislatures, while a proposal pending in New York targets schools serving many low-income students.

TRUMP V. CALIFORNIA, CANNABIS EDITION: Senate President Pro Tem Kevin de León told us late Thursday he is consulting with former Attorney General Eric Holder on possible responses to current Attorney General Jeff Sessions' announcement he was rescinding Obama-era guidelines that had limited marijuana-related prosecutions in states where the drug was legal under state law. Holder was enlisted by the state Senate to help battle Trump on multiple fronts last year.

Recreational marijuana was passed by the voters, so it's constitutional," de León said. "We are researching ways that we can uphold the Constitution and the will of the people of California against an overreaching federal government that is meddling in our state's ability to govern as we see fit."

Meanwhile, state Attorney General Xavier Becerra said in a prepared statement that his department will "vigorously enforce our state's laws and protect our state's interests."

Trump administration targets recreational pot, placing thousands of marijuana businesses in California at risk: Atty. Gen. Jeff Sessions is rescinding an Obama-era federal policy that provided legal shelter for marijuana sales in states that have allowed recreational pot, placing thousands of marijuana businesses in California and other states operating legally under state law at risk of federal raids and seizures.

TRUMP V. CALIFORNIA, OIL EDITION: - President Trump aims to open California, Florida, Atlantic waters for oil drilling: The Trump administration unveiled a plan Thursday to open vast new stretches of federal waters to oil and gas drilling, erasing the policies put in place by previous Democratic and Republican administrations and setting up a conflict with state governments fearful about the risk of spills.

Gov. Jerry Brown joined Oregon Gov. Kate Brown and Washington Gov. Jay Inslee in a joint statement decrying the proposal. "This political decision to open the magnificent and beautiful Pacific Coast waters to oil and gas drilling flies in the face of decades of strong opposition on the part of Oregon, Washington and California - from Republicans and Democrats alike," the governors said ... "For more than 30 years, our shared coastline has been protected from further federal drilling and we'll do whatever it takes to stop this reckless, short-sighted action."

California has ample weapons to fight Trump on drilling: In the decades since a 1969 oil spill near Santa Barbara tarred sea-life and gave rise to the U.S. environmental movement, politicians and environmental activists have built up ample ways to make it difficult but not impossible for the Trump administration to renew drilling off California's coast.

TRUMP V. CALIFORNIA, TAX EDITION: In an effort to blunt the effects of the federal tax overhaul, California Democrats on Thursday introduced legislation that would give California taxpayers an end-run around limits on state income tax deductions. The measure, dubbed the "Protect California Taxpayers Act," would let California taxpayers make charitable donations to a state government fund in exchange for a dollar-for-dollar tax credit. The contributions taxpayers make to the state could be deducted on their federal tax returns.

The GOP tax scam offers corporations and hedge fund managers massive tax breaks and expects California taxpayers and other blue states to pick up the costs of that windfall from the super rich," Senate President Pro Tem Kevin de León said. "California is already a huge donor state, meaning we send far more money to Washington than we get in return. So we don't plan on bankrolling this trillion dollar tax giveaway as well."

Democrats are moving the legislation as a majority-vote bill. If enacted, it would take effect immediately. New California bill could serve as national boilerplate for skirting Trump's tax law: A California Senate leader introduced legislation Thursday aimed at circumventing a central plank in the new Republican tax law, introducing a model that - if successful - could be replicated across the country.

WAGE WATCH 2018 - Friday's reading on job creation in the final month of last year will be a sideshow to what economists and investors both say is the most important question for the markets and the U.S. economy in the new year: Is the pace of hourly earnings for Americans kicking into a higher gear?

Higher wages would be welcome news for Federal Reserve officials, who have long predicted that a tightening labor market will eventually nudge inflation higher. Faster inflation readings could alter central bankers' calculus for stimulus efforts and, more importantly, tip the apple cart in terms of what investors make when they own risk-free assets such as government bonds.

Average hourly earnings have increased at a consistently middling rate of about 2.5% from a year earlier since 2015. That bites at the classical economic tenet that broad-based demand for employees should eventually reward workers with higher hourly earnings.

Stagnant wage gains and muted consumer price increases could hinder U.S. central bankers from boosting short-term interest rates as quickly as they would like. Fed officials have penciled in three quarter-point rate increases for this year.

The U.S. economy added 2 million jobs in 2017, another solid year of gains.

In December, the economy added 148,000 jobs, according to Labor Department figures released Friday. That was below what economists expected, but still the 87th straight month of gains -- the longest streak on record.

Unemployment remained at 4.1%, matching the lowest level in 17 years.

MARKET WEEK - New Year, New Milestone: The Nasdaq Composite closed above 7000 for the first time, picking up from a strong 2017—when its 28% gain beat the Dow Jones Industrial Average’s 25% and S&P 500’s 19%—as investors continued to bet on the large technology companies that are the index heavyweights. The latest 1,000-point milestone was reached in just over eight months, a pace unseen since the heights of the technology boom. Though investors and analysts say there are few signs of a stock bubble today, the recent rapid appreciation in assets from techs to industrials to bitcoin does have some concerned about the nearly nine-year bull market. The Nasdaq’s biggest winner in the latest 1,000-point charge was Riot Blockchain, formerly Bioptix, whose stock surged more than 640%. Once a maker of diagnostic machinery, the company re-christened itself in October and shifted to investing in blockchain technology, which underpins virtual currencies like bitcoin.

GOOD READ - "There Is No Case for the Humanities," by Justin Stover in American Affairs Journal: "In 1773 Samuel Johnson visited the ancient University of St Andrews ... [which is] one of the twenty or so oldest universities in the world, formally established by a bull of Pope Benedict XIII in 1413. Three hundred and fifty years in, it had evidently fallen on hard times. Fewer than one hundred students remained, and one of its old colleges had been dissolved. ... Yet St Andrews survived. Today it has more than ten thousand students, and is highly regarded, particularly in the humanities." http://bit.ly/2DwWRQm

GOOD READ PART DEUX -  N.Y. Times Magazine Sunday January 7 ... "The Case for the Subway: It built the city. Now, no matter the cost — at least $100 billion — the city must rebuild it to survive," by Jonathan Mahler:

"For all the changes in transportation technology since the first tunnels were dug ... the subway remains the only way to move large numbers of people around the city."

"Today, New York's subway carries close to six million people every day, more than twice the entire population of Chicago. The subway may no longer be a technological marvel, but it continues to perform a daily magic trick: It brings people together, but it also spreads people out."

"It is this paradox — these constant expansions and contractions, like a beating heart — that keep the human capital flowing and the city growing.

Why it matters: "New York's subway has no zones and no hours of operation. It connects rich and poor neighborhoods alike. The subway has never been segregated. It is always open, and the fare is always the same no matter how far you need to go.

OUT AND ABOUT – The St. Lawrence University Women ice hockey team visited Southern California this past week, yes Southern California. While the temperatures were well below zero back in Canton, New York, the Skating Saints played a two game series versus Lindenwood University at the Honda Center in Anaheim, California.

The team lost game #1 5-4, but won game #2 in overtime 2-1. Justine Reyes (’19) of Chino Hills, California scored the game winner for the Lady Saints in game #2. Congrats to Coach Chris Wells (’92) for bringing St. Lawrence hockey across the country.

Many alumni came out for the games, including Rink Rat friends Tricia (’74) and Chuck Gomer, and of course Reggie Dunlop. At this game we remembered Bernie McKinnon ('57) who in 1978 after coaching the St. Lawrence Men's hockey team from 1971 - 1976 was the first coach of the Women's hockey team from 1978 - 1996. A true St. Lawrence treasure.


SWAMI’S WEEK TOP PICKS

NFL Football Pick of the Week – Saturday 1/13, 4:35 PM EDT, NBC: Divisional Playoff – Atlanta Falcons (11-6) vs. Philadelphia Eagles (13-3). No QB the Eagles are ripe for an upset, Falcons win 21 – 15. (Season to date 10-8).

College Football Pick of the Week – Monday 1/8, 8:00 PM EDT, ESPN: National Championship – Alabama Crimson Tide (13-1) vs. Georgia Bulldogs (14-1). Roll Tide 38 – 28.   (Season to date 10-7)

College Hockey Pick of the Week – Monday 1/13, 7:05 PM EDT FoxOhio: #8 Ohip State Buckeyes (14-4-4) vs. #14 Penn State Nitany Lions (12-7-3). A Big Ten matchup, Buckeyes win 6 – 4.  Season to date (6-5)

NHL Pick of the Week – Saturday 1/12, 7:00 PM EDT, CBC: Boston Bruins (23-10-7) visit The Bell Centre Montreal Canadiens (18-20-4). Les Habs win a good one 4 – 3.  Season to date (9-2).

NBA Pick of the Week – Saturday 1/12 8:00 PM EDT, FSDetroit: Detroit Pistons (21-17) vs. Chicago Bulls (14-26), Pistons are playing good basketball, they win in Chicago 97 – 88. (season to date 2-0)

Final 2017 Season to Date (102 – 73, .583)

DRIVING THE WEEK - President Trump speaks Monday afternoon at the American Farm Bureau Federation's Annual Convention in Nashville and will then attends the college football championship game in Georgia ... Trump meets with a bipartisan group of Senators on Tuesday to talk about immigration ...

House Financial Services has a hearing at 10:00 a.m. on Tuesday on CFIUS ... Senate Banking has a money laundering hearing at 10:00 a.m. Tuesday ... House Financial Services has a hearing at 2:00 p.m. on Tuesday on federal financial regulations.

The University of La Verne begins what might be their most important Winter Term in many years: one word; management.

Get ready it will start, Oprah Winfrey for President….

Next Blog: Dear Rink Rats

Until next time, Adios

Claremont, California

January 8, 2018
#VIII-22-364


CARTOON OF THE WEEK – Barbara Smaller, The New Yorker

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