Monday, September 17, 2012

Quantitative Easing Trois

Dear Rink Rats:
Who are the highest paid on television?

I Feel Like Getting Depressed

Dear I Feel Like Getting Depressed:

Yes this will get you very depressed, especially in today’s economy and the morons who top this list:

Judge Judy Sheindlin - $45 million 
Simon Cowell - $40 million
David Letterman - $28 million                                 
Matt Lauer - $21.5 million
Judge Joe Brown - $20 million                                 
Bill O’Reilly - $20 million
Kelly Ripa - $20 million                                            
Jon Stewart - $16 million
Jay Leno - $15 million                                               
Ryan Seacrest  - $15 million

Impressive and depressing.

Rink Rats

QE3 - "Fed bets big in new push to rescue U.S. economy, The Federal Reserve launched another aggressive stimulus program on Thursday, saying it would pump $40 billion into the U.S. economy each month until it saw a sustained upturn in the weak jobs market. The central bank's decision to tie its controversial bond buying directly to economic conditions was an unprecedented step that marked a big escalation in its efforts to drive U.S. unemployment lower. Stock prices jumped, while gold hit a six-month high as investors braced for faster inflation. Unlike in its two previous bond-buying sprees, the Fed said it would only purchase mortgage-backed securities, hoping in part to unstick a housing sector that Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke called 'a missing piston' in the U.S. recovery.

CHEAT SHEET: WHAT THE FED ANNOUNCED - "The FOMC announced a new purchase program--QE3--of $40 billion per month, all of which will be in agency MBS. It will run side-by-side with the $45B or so per month in long-term Treasuries via Operation Twist scheduled through the end of this year. They hinted they could well come back and add to the QE program after that ... They also extended the forward guidance on low rates to 'at least through mid-2015' ... Here is the key line: 'If the outlook for the labor market does not improve substantially, the Committee will continue its purchases of agency mortgage-backed securities, undertake additional asset purchases, and employ its other policy tools as appropriate until such improvement is achieved in a context of price stability.' The vote was 11 to 1. There was one dissent: Pres. Lacker, who dissented at the last meeting as well."

BOTTOM LINE - Assuming tame inflation, the Fed is not tightening till we get below 7% unemployment, which the central bank now foresees in late 2014 following its latest action (halfway through Obama II or Romney I) ... All this means that if the economy does what the Fed thinks it will over the next four years the next presidential election will take place in a very different climate.

We tend to believe that recovery will not take place until second quarter of 2016. Too many negatives still in the economy: Europe, Fiscal Cliff, Regulations, Deleveraging, Student Debt, too much to overcome.

THE NEXT BATTLE: APPLE VS GOOGLE - "Steven P. Jobs minced no words when talking about Android, Google's mobile operating system, which he saw as too similar to the iPhone's. He told his biographer, Walter Isaacson, that Android was 'a stolen product' and said, 'I'm willing to go thermonuclear war on this.' ... But so far Apple has not gone to war with Google, at least not directly. Instead, Apple has sued the cellphone makers that use Android in their products - like Samsung ... Now, though, the war is drawing closer to Google's doorstep. Google is increasingly making its own hardware, thanks in part to its acquisition of Motorola Mobility, or playing an integral part in designing it, as it did with the Nexus 7 tablet. ...

'Apple's desire is to be able to put Google on that hot seat, but they need a path to actually be able to do that, and so far all they've seen is a way to go after actual hardware makers,;' said Charles S. Golvin, a mobile industry analyst at Forrester. Google could end up more squarely in Apple's sights if it doesn't take precautions, Mr. Golvin said. 'What it means for the Android folks is a very careful review, back to the drawing board, including a close examination of Apple's stable of patents to weed out anything that looks risky in terms of violating the Apple portfolio."

IPO WORST EVER? In Facebook's IPO, it "wasn't just NASDAQ's performance that was 'the worst ever.' With Thursday's stock swoon, Facebook's IPO now ranks as 'the worst performer among all large IPOs on record,' according to data compiled by Bloomberg. That's quite a designation for what was supposed to be the apex of Silicon Valley's high-profile social media debuts."

BIRTHDAYS THIS WEEK – Birthday wishes and thoughts this week to: Faith Hill (45), Cheryl Hines (47), Phil Jackson (67), Stephen King (65), Tommy Lasorda (85), Bill Murray (62), Rick Pitino (60), Ronaldo (36), Bruce Springsteen (63), Ava Suffredini …a princess, Trisha Yearwood (48).

INSIDE POTUS' HEAD - Michael Lewis, in the Oct. issue of Vanity Fair, "Obama's Way ": "From the time his wife goes to bed, around 10 at night, until he finally retires, at 1, Barack Obama enjoys the closest thing he experiences to privacy: no one but him really knows exactly where he is or what he's up to. He can't leave his house, of course, but he can watch ESPN, surf his iPad, read books, dial up foreign leaders in different time zones, and any number of other activities that feel almost normal. He can also wrestle his mind back into the state it would need to be if, say, he wanted to write. And so, in a funny way, the president's day actually starts the night before.

"When he awakens at seven , he already has a jump on things. He arrives at the gym on the third floor of the residence, above his bedroom, at 7:30. He works out until 8:30 (cardio one day, weights the next), then showers and dresses in either a blue or gray suit. 'My wife makes fun of how routinized I've become ... It's not my natural state ... Naturally, I'm just a kid from Hawaii. But at some point in my life I overcompensated.' After a quick breakfast and a glance at the newspapers-most of which he's already read on his iPad-he reviews his daily security briefing. When he first became president he often was surprised by the secret news; now he seldom is. 'Maybe once a month. 

--HOW IT HAPPENED -- Reuters/Benghazi, Libya: Ambassador Stevens "and three other embassy staff were killed in a rocket attack on their car ... as they were rushed from a consular building stormed by militants denouncing a U.S.-made [video] insulting the Prophet Mohammad. Gunmen had attacked and burned the U.S. consulate in the eastern city of Benghazi ... Stevens was being driven from the consulate building to a safer location when gunmen opened fire."

"According to the State Department Office of the Historian, five U.S. ambassadors have been killed by terrorists: Adolph Dubs, in Afghanistan, 1979 ... Francis E. Meloy Jr., in Lebanon, 1976 ... Rodger P. Davies, in Cyprus, 1974 ... Cleo A. Noel Jr., in Sudan, 1973 ... John Gordon Mein, in Guatemala, 1968. Two other U.S. ambassadors have died in plane crashes: Arnold L. Raphel, in Pakistan, 1988 ... Laurence A. Steinhardt , in Canada, 1950."

ANNIVERSARY – Congrats to Newman’s Own for thirty years of raising funds for a variety of charities and producing great products.

COLLEGE FOOTBALL PICK OF THE WEEK – Saturday 9/22, 8:00 PM ET, ABC: #10 Clemson Tigers (3-0) visit Tallahassee, Florida and the #4 Florida State Seminoles (3-0).  This HUGE early ACC tilt has Florida  State’s #1 ranked defense and #2 ranked offense at home, too much for the Tigers – FSU 42 Clemson 28.    Season to date (1-2).

SMALL COLLEGE FOOTBALL PICK OF THE WEEK – Saturday 9/22, 1:00 PM ET, the SciFi Channel: It is a battle of the engineers in beautiful Troy, New York. Worcester Polytechnic Institute Engineers (1-2) visit Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute Engineers (2-1). To the optimist, the glass is half full. To the pessimist, the glass is half empty. To the engineer, the glass is twice as big as it needs to be. RPI 24 WPI 10.     Season to date (3-0).

NFL FOOTBALL PICK OF THE WEEK – Sunday 9/23, 4:05 PM ET, Fox: Undefeateds’ clash in the desert – Philadelphia Eagles (2-0) visit Arizona Cardinals (2-0). Andy Reid has the Eagles playing good and lucky football in the early going; Eagles 24 Cardinals 14.  Season to Date (2-0).

THE SWAMI’S TOP PICKS – FSU 42 Clemson 28, RPI 24 WPI 10, Eagles 24 Cardinals 14, Montreal Alouettes 30 Toronto Argonauts 24.   Season to Date (7-4).

DO YOU KNOW - University of Southern California (USC) official mascot is?

(a).  A Trojan warrior.                      (b).  A Greek God
©.  A Trojan horse                            (d).  A Trojan condom

Answer in @SLU25 twitter.

DRIVING THE WEEK - Obama campaigns in Ohio today and announces the trade case ... The president is in Manassas, Va. on Friday and Milwaukee, Wisc. on Saturday ... Romney speaks in L.A. at 12:15 PDT today ... Paul Ryan campaigns in Iowa today and New Hampshire and Virginia on Tuesday ... House Small Business Committee has a hearing Thursday at 1:00 p.m. on the impact of the sequester spending cuts on small businesses ... Senate Finance and House Ways and Means have a joint hearing on Thursday on the tax treatment of capital gains.
Among the pile of economic data, Philly Fed on Thursday at 10:00 a.m. may give us some clues about the next jobs report ... OWS plans a one-year anniversary set of protests in NYC today beginning at 7:00 a.m. and focused on the NYSE, Zuccotti park and Foley Square. So plan some extra time if you need to get around downtown.

Next week, movie and Jack Ass of the month.

Until Next Monday, Adios.

Claremont, CA
September 17, 2012

#III-21, 126

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