Tuesday, February 23, 2021

Another Confusing Day

Welcome back to a five-day workweek. Also, apparently you can watch hockey from a boat now.

As we head into the second year of the coronavirus experience, the days still are confusing.

It seems every day the last year has been confusing: Zoom classrooms, empty streets, mask or no mask, stock market records with high unemployment and cheap money, no friend visits, take-out dinners, I could go on and on.

Well, another one occurred this past Saturday. It was a beautiful day in California, 70 degrees and cloudless skies. I did my necessary school and financial work early in the day for a free afternoon of television viewing of my two favorite sports hockey and golf.

The National Hockey League was playing the winter classic series in Lake Tahoe, Nevada in an unbelievably picturesque setting. Additionally, the Los Angeles Open golf tournament was playing the annual event at Rivera Country Club near Malibu, another picturesque venue.

I turn on the television to view these events, with perfect weather (perhaps too perfect in the case of Lake Tahoe), yet to find weather delays, very confusing. Evidently, golf and hockey have more in common than just similar motions in the golf swing and slap shot.

The NHL outdoor game, between Vegas Golden Knights (sorry Clarkson) and Colorado Avalanche, was halted after one period, to resume Saturday night at 9:00 p.m. because the sun was shining too brightly, and the ice quality was suffering.

Meanwhile at Riviera, a breeze developed in the early morning. Winds reached 35 mph at times, blowing hats off and moving balls on the greens, forcing the PGA tour to suspend play for four hours.

Thus, my Saturday afternoon was ruined. I did laundry! Very confusing times indeed.

CYBERBULLING – Speaking of confusing, how about this investing tool, cyberbulling.

Cyberbulling: when people who are "bullish" on a stock stoke massive buying campaigns of that stock on social media (especially: Reddit, Discord, TikTok). One of the earliest cyberbulling episodes happened back in June, when bankruptcy-bound Hertz saw its shares inexplicably soar 900%. But...

Cyberbulling has never been as prominent as it has been these past few weeks: While the broader market plunged, throwback stocks like GameStop, AMC, Nokia, and even Tootsie Roll, soared thanks to cyberbulls.

“Little guy vs. big guy” mentality: Some cyberbulls feel they're shifting the power dynamic by betting against Wall Street — after feeling historically wronged by big shots like banks and hedge funds. Funds that were betting GameStock would fall — like Melvin Capital and Maplelane — lost billions after cyberbulls pumped up the stock.

Cyberbulling is also fueled by a strong sense of (cyber) community. Like: people posting screenshots of gains, thanking the "community" for helping pay off student loans and hospital bills.

There’s a general feeling that the GameStop saga speaks to something larger about the nature of financial markets, and even our culture. To try to make sense of it all, we’ve distilled some of the most popular theories that...try to make sense of it all.

1. The “stick it to the man” theory: This theory suggests that these traders are motivated primarily by their disdain for “suits,” the longtime wardens of Wall Street, who, Redditors argue, exploited the little guy to get filthy rich.

As Bloomberg’s John Authers writes, “The people investing today are driven by righteous anger, about generational injustice, about what they see as the corruption and unfairness of the way banks were bailed out in 2008 without having to pay legal penalties later, and about lacerating poverty and inequality.”

2. The “everyone’s super bored” theory: Without much else to do during the pandemic, people have turned to the stock market as a form of entertainment...and to make a lot of money. Last summer, individual investors accounted for roughly 20% of stock market activity on average, up from 10% in 2019. 

3. The “Robinhood” theory: The rise of the amateur investor can be traced back to Robinhood, the app that pioneered no-fee trading and empowered individuals to influence the stock market like never before.

4. The “memeification of society” theory: Some observers have linked the behavior of Reddit’s trading army to other online communities like 4chan that engage in “astroturfing” campaigns. “If you can create enough hype around something, through memes, conspiracy theories, and harassment campaigns, you can manifest it into reality via capital,” Ryan Broderick writes.

 

MARKET WEEK - Barely five months after unveiling its first 5G phone, Apple is already hiring engineers to work on 6G. Knowing Apple, "10G Plus Max Pro" job postings are probably next.

Stocks fell for the week on rising unemployment claims and inflation worries. The US 10-year Treasury yield crossed 1.3% for the first time since February 2020. Meanwhile: Bitcoin hit a $1T market cap for the first time ever.

Walmart posted record sales of $152B last quarter, as we stocked up on groceries and #selfcare goodies. In 2020, Walmart filled 7X more online orders than in 2019 (curbside pickup FTW). But it's projecting slower growth this year, so the stock dipped after last week's earnings. What didn't dip: wages.

Walmart is raising wages for 425K workers, bumping its employee average to ~$15/hour (up from $14). But it's keeping its starting wage at $11.

Walmart = America's largest private employer. With the raises, about half of its 1.5M US workers will earn at least $15/hour.

The Biden admin is trying to raise the federal minimum wage to $15/hour by 2025 (from $7.25/hour). It's questionable whether that'll get through lawmakers. A Congressional study found that a $15 minimum wage would lift 1.3M Americans out of poverty. The same study found it may also leave 1.3M jobless because of higher labor costs. This month, Walmart CEO Doug McMillon met with Biden: McMillon supports raising the federal minimum wage, but hasn't yet endorsed a $15/hour minimum. Still...

Walmart has to compete with its peers for essential workers, especially in online-order fulfillment roles. That's why the raises are only for frontline associates.

Amazon (aka: Walmart's biggest rival) raised its US starting wage to $15 back in 2018, and has lobbied Congress for a $15 federal minimum. Target made $15 its starting wage for all workers in 2020. Why isn't Walmart doing the same?

Profit margin could be a factor... explaining Amazon's and Walmart's different stances on wages. Amazon's biz is mainly online, making it more cost-friendly than Walmart's (which includes 11K+ physical stores). Also: groceries make up more than half of Walmart's sales, and they're harder to profit from than tech. While broccoli has a slim profit margin, Amazon's AWS cloud is its biggest profit puppy. Walmart did more sales in 2020 than Amazon, but its profit was much smaller than Amazon's: on $520B in sales, Walmart made $15.2B in profit — on $386B in sales, Amazon made $21B in profit. Walmart's biz is more sensitive to wage increases, but it needs them to compete with the 'Zon.

US jobless claims hit a four-week high of 861K for the week ended February 13th, rising for the second week straight. Despite a steady drop in Covid cases as vaccines roll out, ~10M Americans are still unemployed. And the pace of recovery is slowing: in January, the US economy added just 49K jobs. Investors are looking forward to more help from Uncle Sam. Dems are on track to (narrowly) pass President Biden’s $1.9T stimulus package, which includes boosted unemployment aid and $1.4K payments to most Americans.

 

COVID-19 UPDATE - More people have now died from COVID-19 in the U.S. — 500,000 — than American troops were killed in action for WWI, WWII and Vietnam combined.

Many of our co-workers, friends and family have just experienced the worst year of their lives.

"Each death has left an empty space in communities across America: a bar stool where a regular used to sit, one side of a bed unslept in, a home kitchen without its cook," the New York Times' Julie Bosman writes.

Case counts are falling as the weather warms.

The FDA meets Friday to evaluate the single-dose Johnson & Johnson vaccine, and an emergency use authorization could help accelerate the vaccination pace.

Hospitals are getting a crucial respite, and many hospital staffers are now fully vaccinated.

Flags will be lowered to half-staff on federal properties for five days, White House press secretary Jen Psaki told reporters today.

The United States has more COVID-19 deaths than any other country in the world.

One word: Leadership

 

MARCH A LAGO - The Thing has said he will be emerging from his Mar-a-Lago shell next weekend to attend the Conservative Political Action Conference in Orlando, Fla. Maybe it is the start of something bigger… or maybe not.

In his first post-presidential appearance, Donald Trump plans to send the message next weekend that he is Republicans' "presumptive 2024 nominee" with a vise grip on the party's base.

A longtime adviser called Trump's speech a "show of force," and said the message will be: "I may not have Twitter or the Oval Office, but I'm still in charge." Payback is his chief obsession.

The few Republicans who have spoken ill of Trump since the election — including House members who voted to impeach him, and senators who voted to convict — have found themselves censured, challenged and vilified by the parties in their home states.

Many Trump confidants think he'll pretend to run but ultimately pass. He knows the possibility — or threat — gives him leverage and attention.

Trump's leadership PAC, Save America, has $75 million on hand, and he has a database of tens of millions of names.

FEBRUARY 16, 2021 - JOE BIDEN has been president for 26 days, but today is the unofficial start of his presidency.

It’s the first day of the post-Trump era.

Biden’s November and December transition period was dominated by DONALD TRUMP, who refused to concede the election, delayed the formal transition process and instructed non-cooperation from his aides.

Biden’s pre-inaugural January was dominated by Trump, who incited a mob of supporters to sack the Capitol and was impeached by the House.

Biden’s first weeks in office in late January and February were dominated by Trump, who at the White House was the target of dozens of Biden executive actions meant to reverse his policies on immigration, climate, health care and several other areas, and in Congress was the subject of the Senate trial.

Trump was kicked off social media but continued to drive an attention-hogging debate within the Republican Party that dragged on for weeks.

Even the general election, a referendum on Trump’s failed response to the pandemic, was also dominated by Trump rather than the more low-key Biden.

Fittingly, on Presidents Day, Biden, who returns to the White House from Camp David this afternoon, finally gets to be president. On Tuesday he’ll be in Wisconsin for a CNN town hall, where he will no doubt make the case for his Covid relief bill. On Thursday he’ll do the same in Michigan while touring one of Pfizer’s vaccine manufacturing plants. On Friday, Biden will Zoom into a virtual meeting of the G-7 and the Munich Security Conference, where he has been a regular guest for years. (The conference is to Biden what Burning Man is to tech moguls.)

There are three dynamics to watch as they navigate this new political-media era:

The GOP: Does the party become less defined by its divisions over Trump and unify around opposition to Biden’s agenda? (The political dynamics of Biden’s Covid bill, which has no Republican support in Congress, suggest the answer is yes.)

The media: Does the Biden White House encounter a much more aggressive press corps than it was accustomed to during the Trump-dominated campaign that catches them off-guard? (The TJ Ducklo episode suggests the answer is yes.)

Biden: Does a solo-act Biden retain his relatively high approval rating (54%) and leverage it to pass his agenda now that the deeply unpopular Trump is off center stage? (Only time will tell!)

 

DRIVING THE WEEK - On Tuesday President Biden will virtually meet with Canadian PM Justin Trudeau. … He has another economy executive order planned for Wednesday … Index of leading indicators on Monday at 10:00 a.m. expected to rise 0.4 percent.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell testifies on Tuesday at 10 a.m. before Senate Banking and Wednesday at 10 a.m. before House Financial Services on the state of the economy and monetary policy. Powell is likely to stand firmly behind the Biden push for big new stimulus soon and reject any idea that the central bank can pump the brakes any time soon.

As it stands, the Democrats’ de facto deadline for getting a package passed — the March 14 expiration of expanded unemployment benefits — is now less than three weeks away, and Senate Democrats say they’re ready to run with the baton once it’s passed on by the House.

GOP lawmakers are prepared to make their case against several elements of the coronavirus measure, including the further aid for state and local governments. But Democrats don’t seem too afraid, noting that the measure is polling quite well these days.

The House of Representatives plans to hold its first floor vote on the Biden administration’s $1.9 trillion pandemic rescue package this coming Friday. Democrats hope to pass the measure before March 14, when additional federal unemployment benefits ($300 a week, provided on top of existing state unemployment benefits) are set to expire. Through a legislative loophole, the stimulus bill could be approved with a simple Congressional majority and no Republican support. What happened to the working together spin?

Retail sales jumped 5.3 percent in January, indicating that Americans spent the stimulus checks they received at the end of the year instead of saving them. Parler, the social network that was forced offline after it drew millions of Trump supporters calling for violence around the time of the Capitol riot, is back up and running. And New York’s attorney general has sued Amazon, accusing the company of providing inadequate safety protection for workers in New York City during the pandemic and retaliating against employees who raised concerns.

I know what you did last summer. Nothing. I'm less sure about what you're gonna be doing next summer. But it's looking increasingly likely that 'something' is a distinct possibility. Rather than an abrupt end to the pandemic, the coming months will be more like the beginning of an extended and still-volatile tail of the outbreak globally. What that will look like, and how long it will last, depends on how nations cooperate and coordinate—or fail to. Regardless of how quickly the immediate threat of viral illness subsides in the U.S., America's choices in the coming weeks and months could mean the difference between a pandemic that ends this year and one that haunts everyone indefinitely. The one thing I've enjoyed during the pandemic is being able to avoid so many social events. Five years from now when someone invites me somewhere, I'll respond that I still don't feel quite safe.

BIRTHDAYS THIS WEEK – Birthday wishes and thoughts this week to Drew Barrymore (46), Cindy Crawford (55), Michelle Graves ….famous gymnast and financial manager, Maria Suffredini … famous niece Purdue University bound, George Thorogood (71).

 

WHITEOUT – As of this weekend 73% of the continental United States was covered in snow, the highest since 2003.

 

LIFETIME - Deaths from COVID-19 are the main factor in the overall drop in U.S. life expectancy by one year between January and June 2020, the CDC says. But it's not the only one: A surge in drug overdose deaths is a part of the decline, too.

COLLEGE CHRONICLES - The spring semester is well underway at America’s universities and sure enough, college town Covid-19 scares are generating fresh headlines. Now, some experts are suggesting new strategies to protect students and the communities they live in.

— Dorm residents at the University of California-Berkeley just emerged from a two-week lockdown, after a surge of cases in residence halls and off-campus housing that had suspected links to small off-campus gatherings. The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill is urging students not to travel during two scheduled days off this week. Campus leaders already had to adjust UNC's plans for limited face-to-face classes after crowds flooded a city bar district following a dramatic basketball game.

— Students at the University of Massachusetts Amherst also have orders to largely stay indoors and refrain from travel to tamp down outbreaks. “To many of you these may seem like drastic measures,” Chancellor Kumble Subbaswamy wrote to campus . “But faced with the surge in cases we are experiencing in our campus community, we have no choice but to take these steps.”

— The higher education industry has learned an abundance of lessons on how to press through a plague year. That includes constant virus testing and an unrelenting approach to masking and social distancing. But the latest spate of infections is enough to raise an intriguing and thorny question: Should college students get higher priority to receive vaccines?

Stanford athletes have raised $40 million to save the university’s athletics department after the school decided to discontinue 11 varsity sports programs last summer.

What's the Difference Between U-Minnesota and Harvard?

The first has a top-20 global MBA program, the second is unranked.

A handful of business schools, including Stanford, Harvard, Penn, and Columbia, skipped the 2020 rankings by the Economist and Financial Times. And Bloomberg Businessweek is taking the year off from publishing its MBA program rankings.

Don't worry, the Ivies will be fine

Imperfect measurements though they may be, rankings are an influential factor for student and employer interest, alumni donations, and faculty recruitment. To get ranked, schools submit data including recent grads' salaries and student and faculty diversity.

Some programs said the pandemic made it difficult to compile that info, especially as they were transitioning to ZooMBA.

The Graduate Management Admissions Council, the leading MBA association, called for all rankings to be postponed because Covid could skew stats like job placement.

Even with some programs holding out, the Financial Times found that MBA demand for the current academic year remained strong across the globe (that's typical during a recession). Average tuition fees rose 3%.

Looking ahead...applications for the upcoming academic year are booming. MBA programs at MIT, Columbia, and Penn have reported double-digit growth in applications. More in the next RR Blog.

 

BITCOIN - Twelve years ago, bitcoin was just an idea. Now, it’s worth as much as a tiny house.

On February 16, the world’s largest cryptocurrency briefly surpassed $50,000 for the first time ever, extending a run that’s mesmerized the business world and frustrated your friend who sold all their bitcoin in 2019.

How we got here ---

A brief timeline of bitcoin’s rise, fall, and even bigger rise.

2008: Satoshi Nakamoto published the bitcoin white paper that laid out the principles of a "new electronic cash system that's fully peer-to-peer, with no trusted third party." To this day, one knows who (or what group of people) Satoshi is.

2010: A programmer bought two pizzas for 10,000 bitcoin in what will go down as the most expensive pizza transaction ever. Let's just assume there were 16 slices between the two pies and you take 15 bites per slice—at today's bitcoin price, that's about $2 million per bite.

2017: JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon called bitcoin a "fraud" (a comment he later walked back).

2018: The NYT ran an article with the headline, "Everyone is getting hilariously rich and you're not" after bitcoin jumped from $830 to $19,300 in the span of one year. Things stopped being quite so hilarious later in 2018, when bitcoin crashed to $3,200.

2020–2021: After hovering below $10,000 for months, bitcoin refueled its rocket ship. It's already up about 200% this year alone, closing Monday at $50,376.42 per coin. Really?

What's next? Next week dogecoin, huh?

Initially conceived as a way of sidestepping traditional financial institutions, bitcoin is now being smothered by them. BNY Mellon, the oldest bank in the US, said it would handle bitcoin for its clients. Mastercard pledged to support cryptos later this year. And a vaunted Morgan Stanley investing unit is reportedly considering placing bets on bitcoin.

Plus, Tesla poured $1.5 billion of its cash into bitcoin and said it would accept payment for its products in bitcoin on a limited basis.

Bitcoin has been increasingly legitimized by the business community, but it still faces existential questions, including 1) how should it be regulated? 2) what is it actually useful for? and 3) when will Rink Rats invest in bitcoin? 

 

STOCKX - Business is booming at the Detroit-based retail site, which has a potential IPO on the horizon.

StockX is known for sneaker and apparel resales, but the marketplace has leveled up through the popularity of gaming consoles. StockX brought in over $400 million in revenue last year, with PlayStation and Xbox hardware emerging as the site’s top grossing products.

The figure is likely to please investors, who bought in on a $275 million Series E funding round in December at a $2.8 billion valuation.

At the time, the company — which was co-founded by Cleveland Cavaliers owner Dan Gilbert — predicted $141 million in profit on $350 million in revenue, expectations that now look modest. StockX previously had $239 million in revenue in 2019.

Competitor Goat Group raised $100 million in September on a Series E round at a $1.75 billion valuation.

Around 7% of PS5s sold in the U.S. have been resold on eBay and StockX, often for double the retail price.

Scalpers have taken advantage of resale markets, buying an estimated 10-15% of all Xbox Series X|S consoles and PS5s since the products launched.

StockX is rumored to be considering going public this year. E-commerce sites Poshmark, Mytheresa and Wish have all gone public or filed to do so in recent months.

Rink Rats investors keep an eye on this one.

PETROBRAS TROUBLES - Brazil's oil reserves are tiny in comparison to Venezuela, which sits on the largest reserves in the world.

But Brazil is producing far more oil, about 3 million barrels per day.

Brazil's state oil company Petrobras lost 19% of its value Monday after President Jair Bolsonaro announced he was firing the company's CEO and replacing him with a former general.

Bolsonaro pledged to "put a finger on electricity" — to keep prices at artificially low levels, worrying investors who had previously been counting on him to have more of a laissez-faire approach to industry.

 

TEXAS COLD ‘EM - If you haven't been at the South Pole you've heard that it got quite chilly this week in Texas. In fact, Dallas briefly had a lower temperature than McMurdo, the main U.S. base in Antarctica. The upshot of all this has been some unpleasant and even dangerous conditions for millions of residents of the state.

Texas is recovering from a freakish cold snap that left millions without power and running water for days, but its economy remains stricken. Its agriculture industry has been literally frozen, and livestock are dying. Several semiconductor companies had to idle production, compounding a global shortage of computer chips that has already slowed car manufacturing at plants worldwide. But devastating incidents like this one may become the new normal. Economists — including one top Federal Reserve official — are warning that banks need to be better prepared for more climate-change-related disruptions to manufacturing, power, and other industries.

 

PLAY BALL – Major League Baseball Season schedule:

Feb. 26: Mandatory reporting spring training

Feb. 28: Exhibition games begin

Apr. 1: Opening Day

July 13: All-Star Game (Atlanta)

Oct. 3: Regular season end

Oct. 26: World Series, Game 1

MLB's health and safety protocols will give spring training a slightly different look.

Mandatory, five-day quarantine for all players prior to reporting.

Altered schedules in Florida's Grapefruit League to cut down on travel.

Camps are capped at 75 players to limit crowding, and most minor leaguers won't report until the big leaguers have decamped.

Attendance will be limited to about 25% capacity in the municipalities where laws allow for even that many fans.

What they're saying: Spring training will still have some magical elements, but the experience will be far from normal — something players and coaches are acutely aware of, and familiar with, following last season's fanless campaign.

MINOR LEAGUES - When Minor League Baseball begins its 2021 season, there will be 25% fewer teams than there were at this time last year.

The realignment removes a net of 40 teams from 2020, for a total of 120 teams across 39 states.

43 teams lost MLB affiliation. Two were Double-A clubs, while the other 41 were Single-A or lower.

Three independent teams — the Somerset Patriots, St. Paul Saints and Sugar Land Skeeters — gained MLB affiliation.

The reshaping of the minors is a push towards modernizing MLB's development pipeline, but the changes will leave pockets of the country without access to high level baseball.

In a letter sent to Congress in 2019, MLB cited poor facilities, geographic inefficiency, and "too many players" among the minor league system's key problems. So that's what this restructuring plan addresses.

Due in part to fewer roster spots, player salaries will increase between 38 and 72%.

Big league teams will be an average of 200 miles closer to their Triple-A affiliates, and most will be within driving distance.

Under the new structure, MLB will modernize facility standards and improve amenities and working conditions.

Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) has vocally opposed MLB's plan since 2019, suggesting that it has "nothing to do with what is good for baseball" and "everything to do with greed."

Sanders' local team, the Vermont Lake Monsters, were eliminated, leaving them without a big league club after 27 seasons with the Athletics (2011–2020), Nationals (2005–2010) and Expos (1994–2004).

"Closing down Minor League teams ... is a disaster for baseball fans, workers, and communities across the country. I will do all I can to fight it," Sanders tweeted last week.

The 40 eliminated teams aren't all going away. Some will join independent leagues, while others will join the newly formed MLB Draft League, which focuses on draft-eligible prospects.

 

LENT LINEUP – Here is what we have on hiatus during the Lent season:

-           Soft drinks out

-           Fast food out

-           Double bogeys out

-           Reply all email out (I hope)

See you on Holy Thursday April 1.

 

SWAMI’S WEEK TOP PICKS

NBA Pick of the Week – Sunday 2/28, 3:30 PM (EDT), ABC:  Los Angeles Clippers (22-10) vs. Milwaukee Bucks (18-13). Two top teams fighting the COVID quarantine, Bucks win this one 105 – 100. (Season to date 1-6)

NHL Pick of the Week – Saturday 2/27, 7:00 PM (EDT), CBC:  Toronto Maple Leafs (14-3-2) vs. Edmonton Oilers (12-8-0). One of the positives of this 2020-2021 NHL season is the North “All Canadian” Division, fun to watch. Leafs win a high-scoring affair, 6 - 5.   (Season to date 4-1)

NCAA College Hockey Pick of the Week – Friday 2/26, 7:00 PM (EDT), ESPN+: #12 Quinnipiac Bobcats (13-4-4) vs. St. Lawrence Saints (4-6-3). Could be a possible preview of the ECAC semi-finals, big game for the Saints. Also, time for St. Lawrence to get a new play-by-play announcer, this guy is clueless. Saints win 4 – 3. (Season to Date 5-1)

Season to Date (14-9)

 

Next Blog:  Dear Rink Rats, I miss movie theatres, earnings season.

 

Until Thursday March 4, 2021 Adios.

Claremont, California

February 23, 2021

#XI-27-433

 

4,661 words, ten-minute read

 

CARTOON OF THE WEEKEND – Another example of my confusing pandemic times

 


 

 

 

RINK RATS POLLHave you exercised more or less over the last 3 months?

___ More

___ Less

___ Same

 

QUOTE OF THE MONTH: “Sometimes it takes a wrong turn to get you to the right place.” -Mandy Hale

 

 

Rink Rats is a blog of weekly observations, predictions and commentary. We welcome your comments and questions. Also participate in our monthly poll. Rink Rats is now viewed in Europe, Canada, South America and the United States.

Posted at Rink Rats The Blog: First Published – May 3, 2010

Our Eleventh Year.

www.rhasserinkrats.blogspot.com

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Monday, February 15, 2021

Presidents

Today is Presidents Day in the USA: Presidents Day also known as Washington's Birthday. A day dedicated to celebrating all U.S. presidents, past and present. The holiday was originally established in 1885 to celebrate President George Washington's birthday after his death.

The Senate this week acquitted President Trump in a second impeachment trial. We can only hope that our criminal and civil justice system will keep The Thing under raps forever.

The Presidency is a great institution of our democracy, it is a shame this office has been involved with two impeachments out of four in U.S. history under President Trump.

What are the qualities of a good President? Be it of the government or any institution.

I can tell you what qualities do not make a good President: bullying, telling lies, narcissism, egomaniac, leadership of a few and not all, micro-managing.

So, on this Presidents Day let us hope our future Presidents will never possess these qualities ever again.

“That’s why he went into polities…He wanted all the voters to love him…All he really wanted out of life was love. That’s Charlie’s story – it’s the story of how he lost it. You see, he just didn’t have any to give.” ---“Citizen Kane” (1941)

“A people that values its privileges above its principles soon loses both.” --- Dwight Eisenhower

ON THIS DATE – St. Valentine’s Day 1884, young Theodore Roosevelt lost his mother and then his wife after childbirth and wrote this: “The light has gone out of my life.”

 

RINK RATS LIVE – We have some interesting plans for RR in 2021, a podcast and some interviews. One interview is this coming Thursday February 18 at Noon (PDT). Interested in finding out how this strange mind of RR works? Check us out via this link:

https://zoom.us/webinar/register/WN_TYHHESvjQyGRk-FIKM0mFQ

 

FORGIVE ME - Not a text from your ex. During his campaign, President Biden suggested he would support $10K of broad student loan forgiveness. Wild stat: about ~42M Americans (1 in 8) hold $1.5T worth of student loans combined. Also: Black and Hispanic borrowers are much more likely than white borrowers to be behind on their loan repayment, exacerbating the racial wealth gap. In his campaign plan, Biden proposed a few ways to ease the big debt burden:

Offer $10K of federal student debt relief for every year of national or community service someone performs (for up to five years). Think: public school teachers, police officers, and Peace Corps.

Give a free pass to people making $25K or less per year (no loan or interest payments required). Also: make public college tuition-free for families making under $125K.

Forgive federal loans after 20 years for everyone else who has responsibly made payments, and significantly reduce the overall payment.

But will it happen?... Biden has already said he's "unlikely" to forgive $50K of student loan debt, which progressive Democrats (like Sen. Elizabeth Warren) are pressuring him to do. $50K sounds fantastic, but nearly 70% of Warren's proposed benefit would go to the top 40% of households (higher earners hold most of the student debt). As for Biden's $10K eraser and the other relief, there are three reasons it doesn't seem likely to happen in the near future:

1. Biden isn't doing this via executive order: Instead, his admin signaled they'll go through Congress, which will be a lengthier, more complex process.

2. It's not in the stimulus proposal: Biden's massive $1.9T proposal covers a lot — but not student debt.

3. Biden just extended student loan payment deferrals: Last year, Congress suspended payments and waived interest from March to September. Then, Trump extended that to January 2021. Now, Biden has extended deferrals to October 2021. But some see it as an either/or situation.

Biden chose the least costly option... to achieve the same effect (for now). The eight-month deferral of student loan payments stimulates the pandemic economy similarly to how lowering/canceling payments would: in both cases, you're not required to pay during the pandemic — which (in theory) means you have more $$ in a tough economy. Meanwhile, this deferral scenario doesn't bloat the (already huge) national debt. If Biden does go for loan forgiveness, he'll likely target households that need it most.

STUDENT DEBT - Student debt is stopping millions of Americans from buying homes, buying cars and starting families — and the crisis is rapidly getting worse.

Student debt — which stands at $1.55 trillion — is the biggest category of debt Americans owe, aside from mortgages.

Black college graduates owe an average of $25,000 more than their white counterparts.

According to a new survey by Harris Poll, 64% of Americans support canceling some student debt, and 55% support canceling all of it.

President Biden has proposed immediately cancelling $10,000 of federal student loan debt for every borrower, which would cost around $370 billion.

That would eliminate debt for the 15 million borrowers who owe $10,000 or less — a broad-based approach that would help all 42 million borrowers.

But here's what that alone wouldn't do:

It wouldn't make much of a difference for the nearly 30 million borrowers who owe more than $10,000. Many of them went to graduate school and owe hundreds of thousands.

It wouldn’t target the most vulnerable borrowers. Canceling the same amount of debt for all doesn’t account for the fact that many Americans with student debt are also among the most well-educated and high-earning.

Insurmountable student debt is a recent phenomenon, explains Adam Looney, an economist at the University of Utah.

It's been growing at six times the rate of the U.S. economy, and it's only getting worse.

There are no limits on how much students can borrow and few restrictions on how they spend the money.

On top of that, the cost of college and graduate school is skyrocketing. As a result, young people are borrowing sums of money they can’t possibly repay — and many are using that money to pursue degrees at online or for-profit colleges with higher than average dropout rates.

Among the American public, canceling debt isn't a fringe idea any more.

In the Harris Poll survey, 78% support putting restrictions on the price of a university education. And 59% support no tuition at public universities.

 

COLLEGE CHRONICLES – This past week the University of La Verne named their new Provost, Dr. Kerop Janoyan, presently Dean of the Graduate School at Clarkson University. Yes, fellow St. Lawrence friends, Clarkson University!

Rink Rats has been in contact with Dr. Janoyan and he is a hockey fan and acknowledges his respect for St. Lawrence and his enthusiasm of coming to the La Verne campus this April.

 

PODCASTS - Nearly every major media and entertainment company is pouring lots of cash into launching new podcasts. But few of them are making money.

The top 1% of podcasts get 99% of downloads.

How it works: The podcast ecosystem was built in a decentralized manner via RSS feeds.

As more big companies invest in podcast empires, the question of how to build an advertising market that works ubiquitously across different platforms has yet to be answered.

While podcasting is the fastest-growing advertising medium, it's still tiny:

The industry still only brings in less than $1 billion in ad revenue, even though more than 90 million people listen to podcasts monthly, according to Edison Research.

For the small number of successes, podcasts can be lucrative: The N.Y. Times' podcast division reportedly brought in nearly $30 million in 2020. Vox Media's podcasting business is in eight figures. Spotify reportedly paid Joe Rogan $100 million+ for an exclusive deal.

SPAC - Special purpose acquisition companies (SPACs) were undoubtedly the Silly Bandz of 2020. In total, 242 SPACs were launched last year, accounting for nearly half the money raised via public offerings.

The SPAC club includes billionaire investors like Bill Ackman and Chamath Palihapitiya, former House Speaker Paul Ryan, and even Shaq.

Unlike Silly Bandz, SPACs may have some staying power. So far in 2021, an average of five new SPACs has been launched every business day, attracting nearly $20 billion from investors. That already exceeds 2019’s total.

Let’s SPAC up for a minute

Like the word “erudite,” SPAC might be a term that you hear frequently without fully understanding what it means. A SPAC is a publicly traded shell company whose single purpose in life is to merge with another company, taking them public in the process. Investors buy shares in the “blank-check” company, trusting the people behind the SPAC to identify a promising target to acquire. SPACs typically have two years to secure a deal before they are contractually obligated to return any money raised to investors.

Some notable companies that went public via SPACs are DraftKings, Virgin Galactic, and essentially the entire electric vehicle industry—26 companies tied to mobility and technology went public via SPAC last year, with five more already on the docket for 2021.

So why SPAC? For one, they’re quicker than a traditional IPO process. Hims, a telehealth startup, negotiated with SPAC Oaktree Acquisition Corp. for just four months before agreeing to a deal that would take it public. A traditional IPO would have taken 12 to 18 months, the company’s CEO told the WSJ.

Wall Street sees icebergs ahead

Goldman Sachs was the third most active underwriter of SPAC IPOs last year, but CEO David Solomon said in last week’s earnings call that they “need to be pulled back or rebalanced in some way.” His main concern? SPACs have become way overhyped.

One example: The SPAC SoftBank launched last year is currently trading 34% higher than its initial price...but it hasn’t even announced an acquisition target. 

Looking ahead...down the road SPACs may be less popular than they are now, replaced by other creative ways to go public. We're clearly not close to that point yet.

MARCH A LAGO - While pundits ponder the GOP's future -- and traditionalists hope to change course out of the wreckage left by Trump's insurrection -- Washington's power players and state activists have already made their choice. Highlighting the former President's lightning fast rehabilitation, the House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy visited The Thing in Florida last Thursday after repudiating his own criticism of the incitement of the US Capitol riot. In the Republican Party, the post-Trump era lasted a week. (If your outrage over insurrection lasts more than for hours...)

Many observers commented on the jarring mixture of Christian, nationalist and racist symbolism amongst the insurrectionists: there were Christian crosses and Jesus Saves banners, Trump flags and American flags, fascist insignia and a ‘Camp Auschwitz' hoodie. Some saw apples and oranges. But it was really a fruit cocktail: White Christian Nationalism.

 

MARKET WEEK - The U.S. economy grew rapidly in the fourth quarter of 2020 and is forecast to continue recovering this year from the effects of the pandemic.

Yet despite a strong rebound in the second half of last year, the economy contracted 3.5% in 2020, measured year over year, the first decline since the 2008 financial crisis and the largest since 1946. Measured from the fourth quarter to the same quarter a year earlier the economy shrank 2.5%

Fourth-quarter U.S. gross domestic product—the value of all goods and services produced across the economy, adjusted for seasonality and inflation—grew at a 4% annual rate, the Commerce Department said on Thursday. That joined a record 33.4% annual rate of growth in third quarter to further reduce losses from earlier in the pandemic.

The International Monetary Fund expects the U.S. economy to grow 5.1% this year, while economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal projected 4.3% growth, measured from the fourth quarter of the prior year.

2040 - With President Biden in the White House, climate change is back on the agenda. Like the pandemic, the climate crisis affects almost everyone. Unlike the coronavirus, we can’t contain it with social distancing or a vaccine. There isn’t one clear path to fixing the problem. But understanding the humanitarian and economic risks we could face in the next 20 years might make us rethink our priorities.

We confront these potential perils because the emissions that have accumulated in the atmosphere are causing accelerating risks for the climate and the polar ice sheets. The predictions are unsettling. More frequent extreme weather is expected to increase our exposure to climate-related natural disasters. Using data from Four Twenty Seven, an environmental risk assessment firm, we found that by 2040, roughly 90 percent of the global population will live in areas with at least one high-risk climate threat. Those dangers include floods, wildfires, extreme temperatures, water scarcity, hurricanes and rising seas. About 41 percent of the global population and 57 percent of the world economy will be vulnerable to floods, while some 40 percent of people and the economy will be at high risk of water scarcity.

Many countries will be exposed to multiple risks. In the United States, the East Coast may be more affected by hurricanes while the West Coast may suffer from wildfires and drought, and the Midwest from extreme temperatures and floods. One way or another, roughly 80 percent of the U.S. population, economy and agriculture may be exposed. You can select your country here to see what climate hazards you could experience.

Most of the exposed population will live in low- and middle-income countries. In those places, climate disasters will combine with poor infrastructure and a weak economy to produce challenges including crop failure, water shortages, mass migration and disease.

Biden’s presidency marks the beginning of a renewed effort to combat climate change. On his first day, he recommitted the United States to the Paris Agreement and he has pledged to invest in the green economy. But if we don’t act soon, these disturbing projections may become reality.

Bank of New York Mellon Corp., the nation's oldest bank, is making the leap into the market for bitcoin, a sign of broader acceptance of the once fringe digital currency. The custody bank said Thursday it will hold, transfer and issue bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies on behalf of its asset-managment clients.

Crypto: The US stock market is closed today for Presidents Day, but the bitcoin store is open and it is busy. The cryptocurrency is closing in on $50,000 after hitting more record highs this weekend (bitcoin doesn’t have specific “trading hours” like stocks).

RATINGS - More than 12 million people have watched live television coverage of the second Senate impeachment trial of former President DOnald J. Trump, an audience larger than the one for the first trials a little more than a year ago, according to Nielsen. 

 

BIRTHDAYS THIS WEEK – Birthday wishes and thoughts this week to Jim Brown (85), Matt Groening (67), Kevin Marshall… famous law school Dean, Gretchen Pugliese…famous health advocate, Bill Russell (87), Rene Russo (67), Jane Seymour (70)

 

TOP FIVE - Country Singers Net Worth

# 5. Garth Brooks - $335 Million Net Worth.

# 4. Taylor Swift -$375 Million Net Worth.

# 3. Shania Twain - $420 Million Net Worth.

# 2. Toby Keith - $515 Million Net Worth.

# 1. Dolly Parton - $590 Million Net Worth.

 


JACK ASS OF THE MONTH – There are many contenders for the Jackass of the Month for February. But we have a clear-cut winner: Senator Mitch McConnell of the Commonwealth of Kentucky.

Forty-three Senate Republicans voted to acquit The Thing, but few defended him when they announced their votes. Instead, they cited process arguments and said impeaching an ex-president is unconstitutional, which even many conservative attorneys’ dispute. In short, GOP senators passed up an opportunity to put Trump away for good because their base still loves him — and they fear the base.

Minority Leader MITCH MCCONNELL delivered a blistering rebuke of The Thing — just minutes after voting to acquit him. During his floor speech, the Republican leader said the House managers proved their case that The Thing incited the riot and suggested he could still be charged with a crime. “These criminals were carrying his banners, hanging his flags and screaming their loyalty to him. … He did not do his job. … He watched television happily — happily — as the chaos unfolded,” McConnell said.

But the reality is that had McConnell voted to convict, the base would have demanded his ouster from leadership, just as they did with Rep. LIZ CHENEY (R-Wyo.). His members would have had to choose between their constituents or him. As disgusted as he was with Trump, McConnell would only go so far.

McConnell is clearly looking to steer the party to a post-The Thing future. They include, notably, taking sides in Republican Senate primaries against Trump-backed hopefuls if he thinks they’ll lose.

Because Senator McConnell likes to have it both ways, he is our Jackass of the Month.

OUT AND ABOUT – Good to hear from old Rink Rats friend Terry Zangkas (Country Day ’72). Terry has assured RR that the Detroit Red Wings are rebuilding fine and will be a contender next year. Also take the overs for the Detroit Tigers for the coming season, 63 games.

SUPER BOWL 55 RATINGS - CBS Sports’ telecast of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ 31-9 victory over the Kansas City Chiefs averaged 91.629 million viewers, down 8% from Fox’s telecast of the Super Bowl last year. The CBS number includes out-of-home viewership.

This year marks the lowest TV-only audience for the Big Game since Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Seattle Seahawks averaged 90.75 million viewers on ABC in 2006.

The numbers were better for overall viewing, with CBS recording a total audience delivery of 96.4 million viewers across all platforms — down 6% from last year.

CBS noted Bucs-Chiefs was the most live-streamed NFL game ever, averaging 5.7 million viewers per minute, up 65% from last year’s game. It was the first NFL game in history to total more than 1 billion streaming minutes.

Multiple factors unique to the game may have driven down TV numbers.

The game was a blowout with the Bucs’ 22-point win representing the second-biggest margin of victory over the last 18 Super Bowls. TV viewers don’t stick around for lop-sided contests.

Referees largely controlled the pace and drama, particularly in the first half.

There could have been Tom Brady fatigue for his 10th Super Bowl.

The Super Bowl audience drops are in line with the NFL’s 8% falloff for the 2020 regular season. But the numbers still caught many sports media-watchers by surprise — particularly after the AFC and NFC Championship games drew rating increases.

Side note: The Swami ended the NFL season with a 64.4% winning percentage for all NFL games this season. The Swami was correct with his Super Bowl pick, but his over/under was wrong. See you next season… watch out for those Deeetroit Lions next season, pre-season pick 9-7.

GOLF - Professional golfers are hitting the ball such long distances that courses can't keep up. Now, golf's governing bodies appear ready to act.

Driving the news: The USGA and the R&A (Europe) jointly announced Tuesday that they will explore four potential changes intended to curb distance gains:

Changing the specifications of equipment

Changing how manufacturers test equipment

Limiting the maximum club length to 46 inches

Allowing tournament organizers to implement equipment standards

"Golfers need to understand that this every-generation-hits-the-ball-farther is affecting the game negatively. ... We're just trying to fit the game of golf back on golf courses."

— USGA CEO Mike Davis, via Golfweek

Three key factors in determining hitting distance have undergone significant advancements this century: the swing, the club and the ball.

It's put the game at a crossroads: Should courses expand to keep up with the modern golfer, or should equipment be altered to reduce distance?

A year ago, the USGA and R&A stated that the continuing increase in length was "detrimental" to the game.

By the numbers: In 1990, the average PGA Tour driving distance was 262.8 yards. In 2020, it was 296.4 yards — an increase of nearly 13%.

Bernhard Langer, who plays on the PGA's senior circuit, drives the ball farther at age 63 (273.5 yards) than he did in his prime (269.7 yards in 1985).

If distance-related changes are made at the professional level, it could lead to a bifurcation of rules like we have in baseball.

Just as metal bats are used at every level below the majors and minors, certain golf equipment could be permitted for everyday players, but not pros.

There's no timeline for when the proposed changes, if adopted, would be implemented.

But it likely won't be for at least another year, as the USGA and R&A gather research alongside manufacturers and other stakeholders.

SWAMI’S WEEKEND TOP PICKS –

NBA Pick of the Week – Sunday 2/21, 5:00 PM (PDT), EXPN: Brooklyn Nets (16-12) vs. Los Angeles Clippers (20-8). Clippers have too much depth for the over-rated Nets, Clips win 100 – 90.  (Season to date 1-5)

NHL Pick of the Week – Saturday 2/20, 8:00 PM (EDT), ESPN+: Tampa Bay Lightning (10-2-1) vs. Dallas Stars (5-3-4). A return to the last Cup Final, Lightning still has the Stars number, 4 – 3.   (Season to date 3-1)

NCAA College Hockey Pick of the Week – Friday 2/19, 7:37 PM (CDT), MidCo Sports: #10 Nebraska-Omaha Mavericks (13-6-1) vs. #2 North Dakota Fighting Hawks (15-4-1). It will be a chilly evening in more ways than one for the Mavericks, Hawks win 5 – 2. (Season to Date 4-1)

Season to Date (12-8)

 

Next Blog:  Dear Rink Rats and I miss movie theatres.

 

Until Monday February 22, 2021 Adios.

Claremont, California

February 15, 2021

#XI-26-432

 

3,649 words, six-minute read

 

CARTOON OF THE WEEKEND – Mick Stevens

 


“I really appreciate this, guys. I don’t know how much longer I could have taken being cooped up in my apartment.”

 

RINK RATS WEEKEND POLL – In the last few decades, popular music has gotten…

___ Better

___ Worse

___ Neither

___ I don't know

 

QUOTE OF THE MONTH: “Sometimes it takes a wrong turn to get you to the right place.” -Mandy Hale

 

 

Rink Rats is a blog of weekly observations, predictions and commentary. We welcome your comments and questions. Also participate in our monthly poll. Rink Rats is now viewed in Europe, Canada, South America and the United States.

Posted at Rink Rats The Blog: First Published – May 3, 2010

Our Eleventh Year.

www.rhasserinkrats.blogspot.com