The Twilight Zone 2020

Weekend Edition

BUENOS DÍAS good Friday morning.

I have been in a twilight zone for how long?

I went to my campus office today to pick up some files for the upcoming remote fall semester/term. My first visit since March, it was an eerie feeling. Nothing had changed; desk was exactly as I left it, files, calendar, post it notes, etc. One good thing the office was very clean, kudos to our staff. But it was like walking into a twilight zone, I thought it was March 10.

I have been in a twilight zone listening to our two political conventions. First the Democrats, preaching doom and gloom, I thought I was back in 1976 listening to Jimmy Carter’s convention, many problems, but few solutions. This week, the Republicans, preaching a fantasy land of accomplishments and successes. While, our planet is warming, our children suffer from lack of leadership in our education institutions, our citizens are still dying by the hundreds daily from a virus that has no central administration of control, they preach the greatest Presidency in American history.

Is The White House available for proms now?

Truly a Twilight Zone.

What next? A sixty-game baseball season, NHL and NBA playoffs into October, The Masters in November, no more wearing of masks (been to Orange County, CA lately), oh I guess all this has already happened.

Truly a Twilight Zone.

COLLEGE CHRONICLES - Colleges need the tuition dollars that come with bringing students back to campus, even if it means risking their health. Some institutions fear that without in-person classes, they will lose students to competitors. If competition for students is preventing many colleges from making choices that would benefit the public, constrained public revenue streams are behind the existential challenge for schools that educate younger students.

The University of Arizona is acquiring Ashford University, a for-profit, online institution, for $1, and will create a new nonprofit entity, University of Arizona Global Campus, as a result.

From Insider Higher Ed: "SimpsonScarborough has released a survey of incoming freshmen who aspired to attend a four-year residential college that finds that 40 percent of them say they are likely or highly likely to not attend any four-year college this fall. Further, 28 percent of returning students who have the option to return to their campus say they are not going back or haven't decided yet. (Some of both groups of students may be interested in attending a community college.)" Lots more stats here, including that 41% of returning students prefer to return to campus for a hybrid model, 31% want to stay home and take classes remotely and only 17% want to return to campus to take classes in person.

Editor’s note: I have spoken this past week with all the thirty nine students enrolled in my two classes beginning August 31, and they are all attending our remote classes this fall. I might add, all with positive attitudes about the upcoming semester (must be the Professor). They did ask about lowering the tuition.

TROLL TIDE - The rise we've seen in recent days is unacceptable, and if unchecked, threatens our ability to complete the rest of the semester on campus,' University of Alabama President Stuart Bell said." Universities sound alarm as coronavirus cases emerge just days into classes — 530 at one campus. (They didn't sound the alarm. They're just finally hearing it.)

COVID-19 UPDATE - Covid-19 deaths, yesterday:

Spain: 25

France: 23

Japan: 11

Canada: 10

UK: 2

Germany: 4

United States: 1,170

Population of countries above: 426 million

Population of United States: 328 million

 

MARKET WEEK – The Dow Jones Industrial Average is getting a makeover next week.

On August 31, shares of Exxon Mobil, Pfizer and Raytheon Technologies will be replaced by Saleforce.com, Amgen and Honeywell International. These changes will mark the first time since 1928 that Exxon Mobil won’t be part of the Dow in any way. The stock was first included in the average nearly 100 years ago, when it was known as Standard Oil.

The shake-up comes on the heels of Apple’s 4-for-1 stock split, which also takes effect om August 31. In a statement, S&P Dow Jones Indices said the moves “help diversify the index by removing overlap between companies of similar scope and adding new types of businesses that better reflect the American economy.”

BIRTHDAYS THIS WEEK – Birthday wishes and thoughts this week to Sean Connery (90), Hoang Dinh …The Man in Vegas, Lindsey Shiomi …needs to work on her golf game.

 

STAT OF THE DAY - Allan Lichtman, a historian at American University, has accurately predicted the outcome of every U.S. presidential election since 1984, including Donald J. Trump's surprising 2016 victory over Hillary Clinton. He's done so by using a set of 13 "keys" to winning the White House. Lichtman has become something of an academic celebrity, surfacing every four years to weigh in on who will be the Oval Office's next occupant. Now, in a New York Times video op-ed, Lichtman predicts Joe Biden will come out on top in November.

68 DAYS – Until the national election on November 3, talking about a Twilight Zone, stay tuned.

Kamala Harris, Joe Biden's running mate, is a graduate of Howard University, making her the first HBCU alum on a major party's presidential ticket. This is the first time since 1984 that the Democratic ticket won't have an Ivy League graduate.

TOP THREE – Best and worst baseball broadcasters:

Worst

Alex Rodruguez, ESPN

Drew Goodman, Colorado Rockies

Kirk Gibson, Detroit Tigers

Best

Dan Shulman, Toronto Blue Jays

John Sterling, New York Yankees

Bob Costas, MLB Network

 

THE SWAMI’S WEEKEND PICKS –

Stanley Cup Playoffs: 08/29 Noon (EDT), NBC; Philadelphia Flyers (1-1) vs. New York Islanders (1-1), a critical game 3 in this Eastern Conference semi-final. We like the Islander, 4-2.

NBA Playoffs: 08/29 9:00 PM (EDT), TNT; Dallas Mavericks (2-3) vs. Los Angeles Clippers (3-2), a no brainer, Clips win easy, 125 – 110.

Major League Baseball: 08/29 1:05 PM (EDT), YES: New York Mets (13-16) vs. New York Yankees (16-11), Yanks are beat up, have lost five in a roll – this ends today, Yanks win, 6 – 2.

 

Next Blog: The school year begins…

Until Monday September 7, 2020 Adios.

Claremont, California

August 28, 2020

#XI-8-414

1,155 words, four minute read

 

CARTOON OF THE WEEKEND – Bad Dream

 

 

RINK RATS POLL – If the 2020 Presidential election were to be today, I would vote for President?

___ Joseph Biden

___ Donald Trump

___ Other

 

QUOTE OF THE WEEKEND – "Patriotism means to stand by the country. It does not mean to stand by the President." - Theodore Roosevelt

 

Rink Rats is a blog of weekly observations, predictions and commentary. We welcome your comments and questions. Also participate in our monthly poll. Rink Rats is now viewed in Europe, Canada, South America and the United States.

Posted at Rink Rats The Blog: First Published – May 3, 2010

Our Eleventh Year.

www.rhasserinkrats.blogspot.com

Unknown, Unknowns

We begin August 2020, week twenty-one of the pandemic shutdown, with the continuing unknown, unknowns.

From baseball, hospitalizations, Tik Tok, daily menus, never really knowing what day it is, changing strategies in business daily, there are just too many unknown, unknowns.

Many of us feel like we are living in a twilight zone: afraid to go out, each day our leaders have different excuses and strategies, I have had a constant ill feeling in my stomach.

I even tried to learn Spanish, a disaster. The solution – trust your family and close friends, read anything, and stay off social media (seriously).

GRIM FIRST: California recorded its first coronavirus-related death of someone younger than 18 on Friday. The unnamed teenage victim had underlying health conditions, according to the California Department of Public Health, whose director Dr. Sonia Angell referred to the death as “a tragic and powerful reminder of how serious Covid-19 can be.”

SOMETHING SMELLS – No it is not a hockey road trip bus ride to Troy, New York, but the Claremont Club. The Claremont Club is (was) a 10,000-member athletic club in Claremont, California. Forty plus years in operation with profits in 2019 of more than $14 million.

This writer was a member, honestly, I participated not in the tennis, racquetball, Olympic pool, or weight room. I enjoyed the steam room, jacuzzi, and the bar. 😊

Nevertheless, the club closed it doors this past weekend, the reason, the pandemic and a loss of 1,200 memberships. They had 10,000 members, one of the top clubs in the country, making profits, why close. I get it, times are tough, but based on what I know they could have lasted into the next year.

There is more to this closure, stay tuned.

COLLEGE CHRONICLES - The American four-year college experience has always been more than learning the classics, or surviving organic chemistry, or being versed in existential philosophy, or acquiring job skills. Most students who attend college — whether at a big state school or a small liberal arts college — will meet lifelong friends. Some will find their partner. Others will begin their careers. All of them will create cringe-worthy memories they will later try to scrub from social media.

The pandemic is testing whether any of that will happen this fall.

College administrators are scrambling to figure out how to provide their students not just an education but the experience they’ve marketed for years as worth an exorbitant sticker price. Some students are weighing whether to take a gap year.

We asked four college and university leaders from around the country to learn how they are preparing for the pandemic’s first fall semester. At Colby College, students will return to campus in Waterville, Maine, at the end of August where students, faculty and staff will be tested three times in the opening weeks of the semester and twice a week after that. At Rice University in Houston, Texas, students will be tested as soon as they arrive and throughout the semester. They’ll also have smaller classes: In-person classes will be capped at 25 students.

Students at Texas A&M University in College Station will move into their dorms over 10 days starting Aug. 8. More than 50 percent of the university’s classes will be held in person. College football is also restarting in late September, with the Aggies playing a conference only schedule to a half empty stadium. That’s still 55,000 students and fans. Washington University in St. Louis pushed back its start date by a month and is reducing the overall number of students in dorms — everyone will have a single room.

Do you think that some colleges won't survive the pandemic? How do you avoid becoming one of those?

Colby College president David Greene: Colby is very strong and is not struggling. In a normal year, we would have 2,000 students on campus. We have 2,100 students now who have indicated that they’re going to be here this fall. We’re putting $10 million into a combination of testing and other mitigating strategies to protect the community.

 

Are you planning on having some classes outside?

Rice University president David Leebron: We’re constructing a number of tents and special facilities. In the end, those may be more used for gatherings other than classes. My own thing now is if somebody does want to meet with me in person, then let’s go sit eight feet apart outside on a bench or something.

 

Why was it important to resume college football?

Texas A&M University president Michael K. Young: It’s part of the university experience for some of our students. It’s a very critical part of their educational opportunity and experience. Sports presents opportunities for students to develop camaraderie and learn how to support each other.

 

What do you think students will miss out on most this fall?

Washington University in St. Louis provost Beverly Wendland and interim vice chancellor for student affairs Rob Wild.

Rob Wild: We are a high-touch undergraduate residential experience. Most of our students live in university-owned housing. We have a great Division III athletic tradition. We have many signature events throughout the semester. We’re really good at doing things together and in person. They are going to miss, like we are, the ability to do that.

 

How are you rethinking the admissions process?

Beverly Wendland: Our admissions office, starting in the spring, took on some very creative and effective mechanisms for virtual visits for students: small group sessions with our dean of the College of Arts and Sciences and other people involved with admissions and academics to help students meet one another, meet our leadership. We’re further honing and refining some of that programming. Because of the difficulty in being able to sit for some of these exams, we have gone test optional for this coming year, but we haven’t determined yet what it will be for the following years.

 

If more students decide to gap year this year, what does that mean for the high school graduating class of 2021?

Rob Wild: I have one of those class of 2021 high school graduates living in my home, so I’ve been thinking about that on a personal level. We’re heavily recruiting already the class that would enroll next fall, and we will continue to do that.

 

STAT OF THE DAY - 2 times a week

That is how often Yale University plans to test students who return to campus this fall.

 

BACK-TO-SCHOOL:  is the second-biggest shopping season, after the holidays. At a time when stores are already struggling, traditional sprees are expected to be smaller with students learning at home.

Laptops are closing the gap for some merchants: The National Retail Federation forecasts a record-breaking back-to-school season because of more being spent on electronics for at-home learning.

Any uptick in demand for electronics will "be offset by those households with one or more parents laid off or unemployed because of the pandemic."

Amazon, Walmart, Target, Best Buy and Apple are positioned to benefit from the online learning shift.

Traditional clothing stores will struggle.

Carter's, the kid apparel company, cut its back-to-school inventory.

The retail apocalypse is being accelerated by new realities caused by the pandemic, like virtual schooling. The result could be more dominance by the already biggest players that can quickly pivot.

Macy’s, which is struggling like other department stores, is using a new slogan: "No matter how we school, let’s be ready."

🛍️ More retail woes ... Lord & Taylor, the oldest U.S. department store, known for its upscale fashions and extravagant holiday window displays, sought bankruptcy protection in Richmond yesterday.

The company was founded in Manhattan by two English immigrants in 1826.

 

BIRTHDAYS THIS WEEK – Birthday wishes and thoughts this week to Tony Bennett (94), Reggie Dunlop …famous for wasting time,  Issam Ghazzawi, …famous faculty member, Corlan Harrison ….famous community leader, Dustin Hoffman (83), David Letterman (67),  Alessandro Suffredini …famous nephew.

SPACE - NASA astronauts Doug Hurley and Bob Behnken splashed down in the Gulf of Mexico after a historic flight to and from the International Space Station, powered by SpaceX.

The landing, the first splashdown by U.S. astronauts in 45 years, begins a new NASA phase tied to partnerships with private companies.

GOOD READ - Before he died, the civil-rights icon John Lewis wrote this final essay, to be published on the day of his funeral. (The New York Times)

 

MARKET WEEK -

MARKETS YTD PERFORMANCE

 

NASDAQ 10,745.27 + 19.76%

S&P 3,271.12 + 1.25%

DJIA 26,428.32 - 7.39%

GOLD 1,994.00 + 31.18%

10-YR 0.535% - 138.50 bps

OIL 40.43 - 33.95%

*As of market close

We summited the earnings mountain last week with dozens of big names and are now on the way back down, which should give stocks a bit of a breather. So far, reporting S&P 500 companies performed better than expected in Q2 (though "expected" was a profit drop of more than 40%).

Crypto: Bitcoin had itself an eventful weekend, rising above $12,000 before dipping slightly. It’s significantly outpaced gold and the major equities indexes this year.

TROUBLE AHEAD - Real gross domestic product (GDP) decreased at an annual rate of 32.9 percent in the second quarter of 2020, according to the "advance" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. ... The "second" estimate for the second quarter, based on more complete data, will be released on August 27, 2020.

Neither the Great Depression (1929-1933) nor the Great Recession (2007-2009) nor any other slump over the past two centuries have ever caused such a sharp drain on the economy.

 

VEEPSTAKES - On Sunday, a Biden aide maintained that 11 women remain in the mix, despite most of the attention in recent weeks swirling around five women: Harris, Warren, Rep. Karen Bass, Sen. Tammy Duckworth and former National Security Adviser Susan Rice.

The Swami likes California Senator Kamala Harris, but I would place a side bet on California Congresswoman Karen Bass.

DRIVING THE WEEK – Continued talks on another stimulus package will remain the key factor for markets and the economy … Senate Banking on Wednesday at 2:00 p.m. holds a markup hearing to vote on the nominations of Hester Peirce and Caroline Crenshaw for the SEC and Kyle Hauptman to be a member of the National Credit Union Administration Board.

ISM manufacturing index at 10:00 a.m. Monday expected to rise to 53.5 from 52.6 … ISM non-manufacturing index on Thursday at 10:00 a.m. expected to dip to 55.0 from 57.1 … Initial jobless claims on Thursday at 8:30 a.m. expected to be relatively flat at 1.42M from 1.43M … July jobs report on Friday at 8:30 a.m. expected to show a gain of 1.5 million with unemployment dropping to 10.5 percent and wages down 0.5 percent.

 

WORD OF THE MONTH - kaput

[ kah-poot, -poot, kuh- ]

Adjective - ruined; done for; demolished.

The adjective kaput “ruined, done for; out of order,” is used only in predicate position, not in attributive position; that is, you can only say “My car is kaput,” but not “I’ve got a kaput car.” Kaput comes from the German colloquial adjective kaputt “broken, done for, out of order, (of food) spoiled,” which was taken from the German idiom capot machen, a partial translation of the French idioms faire capot and être capot, “to win (or lose) all the tricks (in the card game piquet).” Faire capot literally means “to make a bonnet or hood,” and its usage in piquet may be from an image of throwing a hood over, or hoodwinking one’s opponent. Unsurprisingly, kaput became widely used in English early in World War I.

“Is it as bad as that?” He shook his head. “It’s worse. If we get caught, all this is kaput. Kaput, you hear? Gone. Lost. Forever.”

ON THIS DATE – On August 3, 1958, the U.S. nuclear submarine Nautilus accomplishes the first undersea voyage to the geographic North Pole. The world’s first nuclear submarine, the Nautilus dived at Point Barrow, Alaska, and traveled nearly 1,000 miles under the Arctic ice cap to reach the top of the world. It then steamed on to Iceland, pioneering a new and shorter route from the Pacific to the Atlantic and Europe.

TUNE IN - Twenty One. Games. That's what our three major sports leagues have generously offered up today (Monday August 3) — at least until the next MLB game gets postponed.

SWAMI’S WEEK TOP PICKS –

Our three major sports winners in the months ahead:

Stanley Cup Champs – We like the Washington Capitals over the St. Louis Blues.

NBA Champs – Los Angeles Clippers over the Toronto Raptors.

World Series Champs – New York Yankees over the Los Angeles Dodgers. BUT, over and unders on the MLB season to be completed are 55/45 to not complete.

2020 Season to Date (9-6)

Finally – To my St. Lawrence University friends, reunion weekend July 15-18, 2021. The reservation has been made at the University Inn, hope to see you all then: Golf Friday and Saturday mornings, cocktails Friday and Saturday afternoons, St. Lawrence County jail Friday and Saturday nights.

Next Blog: Dear Rink Rats and baseball’s best and worst broadcasters. Hint: A Rod sucks.

Until Friday August 14, 2020 Adios.

Claremont, California

August 3, 2020

#XI-7-413

2,313 words, six minute read

 

CARTOON OF THE WEEK – The Spreaders

 

 

RINK RATS POLL – Joe Biden’s Vice President nominee will be…

_____ Representative Karen Bass

_____ Senator Kamala Harris

_____ Michelle Obama

_____ Susan Rice

_____ Senator Elizabeth Warren

_____ Other

_____ Who cares

 

QUOTE OF THE WEEK – "Patriotism means to stand by the country. It does not mean to stand by the President." - Theodore Roosevelt