Monday, October 26, 2020

Trick or Treat

 What a fun weekend of football, baseball, and horror movie marathons.

Now to the serious stuff: In case you live in a cave under a rock inside a volcano five miles under the ocean surface, you know the U.S. election takes place next week.

It's the Great Pumpkin, Charlie Brown won't air on ABC this year, instead it will only be available on Apple TV Plus. I know that's not the biggest news of the day. It's not even the day's biggest news about an oversized, round, orange, pulp-filled head. But it's more troubling than it seems. Yes, the internet divides us. But, increasingly, so does access to TV shows. I've largely given up on us sharing a common reality, but now we're not even sharing a common fiction, as Lucy pulls away the football just as people who can't afford to carve out enough jack for elite television were about to kick it (even though for some, pay TV prices seem like Peanuts). I'm not suggesting we need to call in the National Gourd, but this is just one more way for a nation unable to squash beefs or patch up differences to sow the seeds of division.

Celebrating Halloween and Día de los Muertos will be difficult and more isolated this year, but can still be done while minimizing harm to others:

Avoid children grabbing candy from communal bowls or sanitize their hands afterward. Also consider handing out treat bags instead.

A Halloween mask will not protect you from the virus.

Some health departments are recommending "candy chutes."

Día de los Muertos (Day of the Dead, in Mexican culture) participants should avoid large, indoor celebrations with singing or chanting, said Viviana Martinez-Bianchi, associate professor of family medicine and community health at Duke Family Medical Center.

Families can gather virtually and trade recipes.

HALLOWEEN HORROR - Whether we like it or not, there are two major pandemic trends happening in America right now. First, cases are on the rise, a new wave is here, and for many states (10 of which reported their highest single-day coronavirus case counts last week), the darkest days are yet to come. Second, the administration's unforgivably poor performance around Covid-19 is getting worse as the views of the actual experts are pushed to the sidelines by an unqualified quack named Scott Atlas, who was brought onto the Coronavirus task force after the president saw his appearances on Fox News. Thanks in part to Atlas's influence, we have less testing, we have more people who don't believe in the value of masks and social distancing, we have a president who still seems to believe the pandemic is over even as he travels from hard hit state to hard hit state for crowded rallies, and we have repeated calls for the deadly stupid idea of letting herd immunity send the American body count through the roof.

Just yesterday, Atlas tweeted, "Masks work? NO" — an idiotic lie that was deemed false and harmful enough for Twitter to block it. At this point, the off course Atlas and his monstrous boss should just draw a chalk outline around America because they've turned it into a national crime scene.

TOP FIVE HALLOWEEN SONGS –

1). “Monster Mash”, Bobby “Boris” Pickett (1962)

2). “Thriller”, Michael Jackson (1982)

3). “Halloween Theme”, John Carpenter (1978)

4). “Psycho Killer”, Talking Heads (1977)

5). Tie:            “People are Strange”, The Doors (1967)

                        “Ghostbusters”, Roy Parker, Jr. (1984)

 

DUMB & DUMBER - A few months ago, a 51-year-old woman from Michigan named Wendy Wein sent an email to a man she believed was named Guido Fanelli, the proprietor of a website called Rent-A-Hitman. 'Got A Problem That Needs Resolving? With Over 17,985 U.S. Based Field Operatives, We Can Find A Solution That is Right For You!' the website promised, along with a badge touting the site's HIPPA compliance. Wein, indeed, had a problem that needed resolving: as she recounted in her email to Fanelli, there was a man who had ripped her off for $20,000 (her ex-husband, as authorities later discovered), and she wanted him taken care of. 'I prefer not going jail. Thank you for your time,' the email concluded." You'd think no one would be stupid enough to book a murderer-for-hire on a website called Rent-A-Hitman.  A Rink Rats common theme: People are a lot dumber than you realize.

SCIENCE - A NASA spacecraft descended to an asteroid this past Tuesday and, dodging boulders the size of buildings, momentarily touched the surface to collect a handful of cosmic rubble for return to Earth. It was a first for the United States — only Japan has scored asteroid samples. We generally try to avoid asteroids, but in 2020, anything is preferable to being stuck on Earth.

For most of human history, the only way for scientists to get their hands on an asteroid was to wait for small chunks of one to fall through Earth's atmosphere and smash into the ground. Incoming rocks can break apart and even vaporize during their fiery descent, so the world's inventory of meteorites—the names given to asteroids once they've made it through the atmosphere—consists of only the hardiest samples.

NOVEMBER 3, 2020 – Hard to believe but there are now just 8 days until voting ends in the 2020 election on Nov. 3. We say “ends” given that the 60 million or so votes already cast make the term “Election Day” an anachronism. We’ve been living Election Day for months now.

President Donald Trump clearly trails Democratic nominee Joe Biden in national surveys by an average 8 points. And Biden tops 50 percent in many polls, a key indicator of his strength. At this point in 2016, Hillary Clinton led Trump by around 3 points and was below 50 percent. And Biden is now slightly ahead in Florida and North Carolina and tied in Georgia suggesting at least the possibility of an Electoral College blowout. We are NOT predicting that. But the numbers are leaning that way.

The White House is also making a somewhat odd closing argument that it has given up on controlling Covid-19 despite spiking infections including in the administration itself.

New Hampshire's (Manchester) Union Leader Sunday endorses Joe Biden — the first time in 100 years that the influential paper has backed a Democrat.

Several states that are likely to decide which party controls Washington next year have exceptionally large coronavirus outbreaks or are seeing cases spike.

Most voters have made up their minds. But for the few holdouts, the state of the pandemic could ultimately help their decision as they head to the polls — and that's not likely to help President Trump.

The stats constitute a backdrop for news coverage and conversation in states that matter most to the outcome.

Wisconsin and Montana have the largest outbreaks of all states with close Senate races, or that are competitive in the presidential election.

Time to vote, express your right of citizenship. Time to participate in the census, aid your community in maintaining resources and services.

Now let us move forward to heal our nation.

COVID 19 UPDATE - When daily cases peaked at ~76,000 in July, officials reimposed restrictions on restaurants, public attractions, and gatherings in hard-hit states including California, Florida, Arizona, and Texas.

Airlines reported a drop in already anemic traffic, and Yelp data showed major declines in business reopenings in June and July. (Just one metro area, Buffalo, NY, experienced an increase.)

This third wave, however, is the result of rising infections across a larger swath of the country. Clustered in the Midwest and Mountain West, 15 states added more new cases last week than during any other seven-day period.

Last week, Chicago Mayor Lori Lightfoot ordered non-essential businesses to close from 10pm–6am and put restrictions on bar and restaurant service. If the city's outbreak doesn't improve, she'll consider another shelter-in-place mandate. Yesterday, authorities in El Paso, TX, asked residents to stay home for a couple weeks following a 300% increase in hospitalizations.

Plus, people are worried how well Covid will hit it off with the flu. Shoppers are raiding grocery stores and stockpiling supplies in case of a fall/winter surge.

Around the world…

Governments are hoping to avoid blanket shutdowns as their own second waves spiral.

In Europe, where cases have more than doubled in the last 10 days, Italy is requiring bars and restaurants to close early beginning today—its most intense restrictions since lifting lockdowns this spring. Spain enacted a nightly curfew yesterday and will allow local authorities to restrict regional travel. And lockdowns across Britain are affecting nearly 6 million people. 

Like the U.S., some countries are dealing with protests against new restrictions.

The WHO (World Health Organization) said the Northern Hemisphere is at a "critical juncture" as cases and deaths rise. For the U.S., this third wave will dominate the national conversation heading into next week's election.

MARKET WEEK -

American Express’s Q4 profits fell 39%, which makes sense given the collapse of travel spending.

Intel stock fell 11% following another tough earnings report. Remember, its stock slid 16% after a previous earnings call revealed its next-gen chips would be delayed.

U.S. energy execs responded with concern after Joe Biden called on the U.S. to transition away from oil and gas at the debate Thursday night.

Burger King is rolling out reusable containers starting in 2021.

What's up

Two-wheelers: The pandemic has boosted sales of motorcycles and scooters in cities around the world, Bloomberg reports. 

Restaurants: Nearly 6,500 new restaurants and food businesses opened last month, according to Yelp. New openings are nearing or outpacing levels from the last four years.

Million-dollar homes: Nice flex. Home purchases worth $1+ million have more than doubled since last year. Median home prices hit a record $311,800 in September as home sales rose 20% annually.

Christmas toys: Mattel sales jumped 10% last quarter, the toymaker’s biggest increase in a decade. Sales in its Barbie line rose 29%.

What's down

Airlines: The four biggest U.S. carriers reported $10.8 billion in Q3 losses. While bookings are picking up, air travel volume is still down over 60% and execs are anticipating a subdued holiday season.

Jobless claims: First-time applications for unemployment benefits fell to 787,000 last week—an improvement from two weeks ago, but still more than triple the pre-pandemic levels.

Christmas spirit: Macy's won't bring Santa to its flagship NYC store this year. Mr. Claus typically attracts 250k visitors each year.

CORPORATE PENALTY BOX - Goldman Sachs, of course, is the biggest and the boldest, paying more than $5 billion in fines for the 1MDB scandal, in which billions were stolen from the people of Malaysia.

Wells Fargo paid a $3 billion fine for taking advantage of millions of customers by opening accounts in their names that they weren't aware of.

JPMorgan paid $920 million in fines to settle charges that it manipulated futures markets in Chicago.

Citigroup was fined $400 million for its management's failure to effectively stay on top of its operations.

Morgan Stanley paid a $60 million fine for failing to protect its customers' data.

P.S. Hundreds of bank employees have been fired from Wells Fargo and JPMorgan Chase for abusing the government's coronavirus relief programs.

A GOOD READ – Two quality books to add to your night table reading:

‘Out of the Shadows”, Etta Joanne (MBA University of La Verne, 2017) an intelligent read. The author makes it relatable to the everyday man and woman by sharing her personal stories. “Out of the Shadows” is about not letting fear or your past hold you back from becoming the person you see yourself to be. It also blends health and fitness as a daily part of obtaining the right mindset that will show in both your entrepreneurial and personal journey.

“The Stand” by Stephen King. It would not be Halloween week without a good Stephen King novel. A deadly influenza has killed most of the world’s population, paving the way for a post-apocalyptic clash between good and evil. An essential novel for Stephen King fans and novices alike.

DRIVING THE WEEK — Senate expected to send Amy Coney Barrett to the Supreme Court on Monday in one of the fastest confirmations in history … Trump is on the trail all week with stops in Pennsylvania on Monday.

On Tuesday, Trump heads to Michigan, Wisconsin and Nebraska (home of potentially important split Electoral College votes) … Vice President Mike Pence will also stay on the trail despite aides testing positive for Covid-19 … Biden is on the trail as well including an event in Warm Springs, Georgia on Tuesday.

YOUTH SPORTS - Youth sports remain in a moment of crisis, as the health and financial situations brought on by the pandemic continue wreaking havoc.

The Aspen Institute's recent survey of 1,103 parents with sport-playing kids aged 6-18 paints a rather bleak picture.

29% of parents said their kids are simply not interested in sports, up from 19% when they were last asked in June.

64% cite fear of their child contracting COVID as a barrier to resuming sports.

28% say they'd spend more money on youth sports now than pre-COVID, but 27% say they'd spend less.

6.4 fewer hours: Kids are spending just 7.2 hours per week playing sports, down from 13.6 before the pandemic.

Solo sports on the rise: Cycling and golf have risen in popularity during the pandemic, as their relative drops in participation are minimal compared to team sports.

"This is a moment of historic crisis," says the Aspen Institute's Tom Farrey. Unfortunately, its roots are also deep enough that it's going to take more than the pandemic ending to right the ship.

BIRTHDAYS THIS WEEK – Birthday wishes and thoughts this week to Kate Jackson (72), Jane Pauley (70), Pele (80), Jaclyn Smith (75), Henry Winkler (75).

MEET THE WORLD SERIES CITIES - Tampa, Florida

Area: 175.83 square miles

Population: 399,700 (metro area: 3.2 million)

Mayor: Jane Castor

Distance from Globe Life Field: 1,270 miles

Best thing to do: Walk around historic Ybor City, nicknamed "Cigar City" for its booming cigar industry from the late-19th century. It's also the proud owner of perhaps the best flag I've ever laid eyes on.

Signature food: The Cuban sandwich was actually invented in Tampa, catering to the Cuban workers in the city's sugar mills and cigar factories.

Championships: Three (Lightning, 2; Bucs, 1)

Tropicana Field

Year opened: 1990

Capacity: 25,000 (least in MLB)

Ballpark food: Their signature items are a short rib grilled cheese and, of course, a Cubano.

 

Los Angeles, California

Area: 502.73 square miles

Population: 3.99 million (metro area: 13.1 million)

Mayor: Eric Garcetti

Distance from Globe Life Field: 1,394 miles

Best thing to do: You can't go wrong with a morning hike at Runyon Canyon (be sure to spot the Hollywood sign in the distance) and an afternoon of arts and culture at The Getty.

Signature food: We have Mexico to thank for the taco, but L.A. is where it first made U.S. landfall when Mexican immigrants — specifically women known as "chili queens" — sold them out of food carts beginning in 1905.

Championships: It's a tricky question, but we're going with 28 based on the city winning, not just its franchises (Lakers, 12; Dodgers, 5; Galaxy, 5; Sparks, 3; Kings, 2; Raiders, 1)

Dodger Stadium

Year opened: 1962

Capacity: 56,000 (most in MLB)

Ballpark food: They've got everything, but it's Dodger Dog or bust. They wanted to keep a taste of home when they moved from Brooklyn in 1962, so the 10-inch Dodger Dog is their take on Coney Island's famous footlongs.

WNBA COVERAGE GAP - Women’s sports notoriously receive a fraction of the coverage men’s sports see, but a tracking of coverage during the entirety of the WNBA Playoffs — which wrapped earlier this month with the Seattle Storm’s win over the Las Vegas Aces — showed just how little. In six major newspapers across the country, the WNBA garnered just over 3% of total sports coverage.

The New York Times had the most women’s basketball reporting of the big six papers in that time frame, with 10.2% of its coverage dedicated to the WNBA — and another 6.4% for other women’s sports. The Chicago Tribune performed the worst, with a paltry 0.8% of its sports coverage dedicated to the WNBA. Newspapers in the home cities of the finalists — the Las Vegas Review-Journal and Seattle Times — performed a bit better than most, with 5.07% and 12.12%, respectively.

Major Outlets’ Sports Coverage During WNBA Playoffs:

NFL — 28.11%

MLB — 20.14%

NBA — 13.41%

College Football — 12.90%

NHL — 6.00%

WNBA — 3.10%

RATINGS – Tucker Carlson, Fox News 8:00 pm ET has consistently had more viewers on the nights of NBA, NHL, and MLB playoffs. Example: New York Yankees vs. Tampa Bay Rays, Thursday October 8 TBS 3.72 million viewers, Carlson 4.63 million viewers. Not that I am a fan but that is impressive.

SWAMI’S WEEK TOP PICKS –

NFL Football Pick of the Week – Sunday 11/1, 1:00 PM (ET), CBS: The battle for the AFC North, Pittsburgh Steelers (6-0) vs. Baltimore Ravens (5-1). The undefeated days of the Steelers are over, Ravens win 24 – 20. (Season to date 6-1)

College Football Pick of the Week – Saturday 10/31, 7:30 PM (ET), ABC: Another prime team Big Ten (14) yawner, #3 Ohio State Buckeyes (1-0) vs. #18 Penn State Paternos (0-1). Hate to say it, but again this year Ohio State is the class of the Big Ten (14). 38 – 20 rout of the Paternos. (Season to Date 3-4).

Soccer (football) Pick of the Week – Saturday 10/31, 10:30 AM (PT), NBCSN: EPL match Liverpool, FC (4-1-1) vs. West Ham United, FC (2-2-2). The Reds will prevail 3 – 2. (Season to Date 2-2)

2020 Season to Date (25 – 18)

 

Next Blog: Is it over?

Until Monday November 9, 2020 Adios.

Claremont, California

October 26, 2020

#XI-14-420

3,102 words, eight-minute read

 

CARTOON OF THE WEEKEND – “Scary”

 


 

RINK RATS POLL – Anyone know what these mean?

CDPSE, PMP, CISM, CRISC, ITILv3F, MCSE, CGEIT

___ Nope

___ Secret Russian code to influence the November 3 election

___ Professional affiliations of an overpaid bureaucrat

___ Houston Astro’s sign stealing logarithms

 

QUOTE OF THE MONTH – " There are two kinds of men in the world ----- those who have a crush on Linda Ronstadt and those who have never heard of her.” ----- Willie Nelson

 

 

Rink Rats is a blog of weekly observations, predictions and commentary. We welcome your comments and questions. Also participate in our monthly poll. Rink Rats is now viewed in Europe, Canada, South America and the United States.

Posted at Rink Rats The Blog: First Published – May 3, 2010

Our Eleventh Year.

www.rhasserinkrats.blogspot.com

 

 

 

 

Monday, October 19, 2020

The Neighborhood

Good Monday morning. President Trump was in Newport Beach raising some California cash this weekend — and Orange County Democrats, always ready to exploit an opportunity, were raising money too, $150 million in the last month.  And congratulations to the Los Angeles Dodgers, who are heading to their third World Series appearance in four years after clawing back from a 3-1 NLCS hole and defeating the Braves last night.

There have been plenty of Pandemic firsts these seven months of organized isolation.

1). I have not worn a pair of pants since the first week of March.

2). Naturally, no socks worn at all in 2020.

3). This writer has lost fifty-five pounds, I have no pants that fit.

4). I have only driven 425 miles on Big Red in these seven months. Big Red is my 1997 Mercury Grand Marquis, aka The Dragnet car.

5). And I now really know the neighborhood.

When you are home all day fighting the Zoom battles and staring out the window you see many interesting events of the neighborhood.

The many people who walk their dogs AND cats the same time daily. The gentlemen who goes for 6:00 am daily bike ride, but he never smiles. In fact, many of my neighbors do not smile.

The family across the street who you never see, seriously, two boys and their parents, you see the Mom and Dad on the rare occasion but never see the kids. Creepy.

Plenty of Claremont College people in my neighborhood, they don’t smile either. The mail delivery never at the same time and with different postman/woman during the week. The constant Uber food, Amazon, UPS, Fed Express, Lyft, Pizza, deliveries during the day. Since this pandemic began, I have purchased stock in most of these companies, and I am doing well. I call it the “Hood” Portfolio.

I have a new member of my family, Bader. One of the nice pandemic firsts.



I have played 42 rounds of golf in these seven months, all teed off before 6:30 am. One of the positives about Zooming from home. My handicap index in fact has gone up, but I do not care, love the game.

We have a neighborhood cat, Burbey, he patrols the entire neighborhood and runs the show. His brother Brando did the same thing, but the coyotes got him about a year ago. A sad day. Burbey is cool.

I know the day the landscape boys are here, the street sweeping day, the twice a week garbage pickup, once a month the “inspector” proceeds to tour around the neighborhood looking for those who are breaking the homeowners association rules. I am a regular troublemaker.

Quite the pandemic in the neighborhood.

FALL CALENDAR:

10.31 ………………Halloween

11.1 …………………Day of the Dead

11.1 …………………Set your clocks back

11.3 …………………Take your country back



 PANDEMIC 101 — In the early months of Covid-19, Sweden was Exhibit A on what happens when a country doesn’t issue stay-at-home orders. Early results weren’t promising: Lots of deaths, no real economic gains — though some advocates of herd immunity say the country has at least seen a lower infection rate this summer. It will probably take years to learn whether there were any benefits, and whether they outweighed the costs.

Now there’s a new Sweden to study: American college campuses. Watching thousands of students gather in classes, in dorms, and in social settings is providing another laboratory for epidemiologists.

Here is what they’re learning:

Herd immunity won’t save us anytime soon. More than 88,000 people have been infected across about 1,200 college campuses. That’s a fraction of the country’s total student population of 20 million. About 60 people have died, mostly college employees.

Experts believe that herd immunity will kick in when about 70 percent of the population is infected — assuming an initial infection provides lasting immunity, which scientists still aren’t sure about.

“It is almost impossible to imagine a college campus will get to herd immunity,” said Howard Forman, a health policy professor at the Yale School of Management, who is leading a team that rates college Covid dashboards.

Asymptomatic exposure is a real problem. College students are carrying Covid without symptoms and then spreading it to the general population, who are then getting sick at much higher rates than the students are.

“When I talk to a lot of colleges and universities, the biggest concern is fear of downstream health in the general population,” said Ramesh Raskar, an associate professor at MIT Media Lab, which has been developing contact tracing apps and other technology to contain Covid. “We always suspected asymptomatic transfers but now see they are real. It is frightening.”

Social distancing has been more clearly defined. There’s still been a lack of clarity about what counts as close physical contact. Colleges are showing how the calculation is more involved than just remaining six feet apart and staying outdoors.

“Before colleges opened, close contact meant going to a barber or people in a meat factory together or going to a senior care center,” Raskar said. “Now it’s more complex.” Cases are spreading at outdoor events if people spend prolonged periods in proximity, without masks. NYU suspended 20 students for throwing a party in Washington Square Park.

Telling people what to do isn’t enough . Trying to force students to follow rules by issuing strict guidelines and handing out punishments isn’t keeping them from spreading Covid. Education, awareness and clear public health messaging about the importance of wearing masks, downstream risks to vulnerable populations and the contagiousness of the disease has proven to be far more effective at containing Covid, Raskar said.

The campuses that are doing well are in areas without much community spread, Forman said. They also have the money to conduct widespread testing and have students who are highly compliant with guidelines. Just a handful of non-compliant students threaten an entire college reopening plan. The University of Illinois had a comprehensive Covid plan and even accounted for parties, but a dozen students who failed to isolate after testing positive for Covid sparked an outbreak.

TECH TROUBLES - Tech stumbling blocks continue to bedevil remote learning:

1. The needs of IT departments and students can be at odds: A university's chief information officer or a school's IT administrator judge software on how secure it is, while students and parents just want a simple interface.

Ed tech has become a tough area for startups and capital investment because risk-averse school tech administrators tend to stick with software they're already using.

2. Existing tech can't just be grafted onto remote learning:

That means Zoom or Slack or Microsoft Teams, which have been vital for keeping offices going during the pandemic, may be ill-suited for young students, who may struggle with usability.

3. The digital divide looms over everything: Low-income students have less access to devices and the internet itself. This has been a concern since early in the pandemic, but there's little evidence it's improving in any real way.

 

A survey last month found that 75% of Black and Latino families with children in under-resourced schools in L.A. don't use computers regularly.

47% of parents surveyed had never visited the ed tech platforms used by their kids' schools.

COLLEGE CHRONICLES - Occidental College will discontinue its D-III football program after three years of deliberations. College President Harry Elam: "Only after very careful consideration and a thorough review of past planning efforts, as well as with the deepest regard for the context and history of football at Occidental, do we make this decision. ... We want to offer the best possible experience for our student-athletes, and the College has determined that to do so for football would require a level of investment that is not sustainable, especially relative to other priorities and following the impact of the pandemic." Elam also noted that the competitive gap between Oxy and other SCIAC programs remains. "We are often at a disadvantage competing against teams that draw upon larger pools of prospective student-athletes, or in some cases, have larger endowments and greater resources on which they can draw. As a result, despite the best efforts of our dedicated coaching staff, we have found it increasingly difficult to consistently recruit at the level we would need to be competitive."

A sad day for the SCIAC conference, who is next?

 

MARKET WEEK

MARKETS YTD PERFORMANCE

 

NASDAQ

11,671.56

+ 30.08%

S&P

3,483.81

+ 7.83%

DJIA

28,606.31

+ 0.24%

GOLD

1,902.90

+ 25.19%

10-YR

0.746%

- 117.40 bps

OIL

40.78

- 33.38%

 

*As of market close

 

Markets: Just a reminder that today we publish year-to-date markets info rather than the day-to-day changes. So the prices and gains/losses you’re seeing above reflect how the S&P, Dow, etc. are performing since Jan. 1 2020.

Energy: OPEC and allies will meet today to chat about an oil market that’s in the dumps. To keep prices from collapsing, producers drastically cut output in the spring when the coronavirus gutted demand for fuel.

BIRTHDAYS THIS WEEK – Birthday wishes and thoughts this week to Judge Judy Sheindlin (80), Kim Kardashian (40), Bobby Knight (80), John Lithgow (75), Willie O’Ree (85), Bill Wyman (84).

DRIVING THE WEEK — Biggest event comes Thursday night in Nashville, Tenn. with the final debate between Trump and Democratic nominee Joe Biden. Trump needs a game changer. Biden needs to just be OK … Fed Chair Jerome Powell speaks Monday morning at 8:00 a.m. at the virtual IMF/World Bank meeting on crypto currencies and cross-border payments …

Commercial real estate is in trouble, and turbulence in the $15 trillion market is threatening to bleed over into the broader financial system just as the U.S. struggles to emerge from a recession.

The longer the pandemic paralyzes hotels, retailers and office buildings, the more difficult it is for property owners to meet their mortgage payments — raising the specter of widespread downgrades, defaults and eventual foreclosures. As companies like J.C. Penney, Neiman Marcus and Pier 1 file for bankruptcy, retail properties are losing major tenants with no clear plan to replace them, while hotels are running below 50 percent occupancy.


WEEKEND NOTABLE QUOTES -

“I can’t believe how fast the second wave has hit...another recession is absolutely possible.”—Katharina Utermöhl, a senior economist at Allianz, warned the FT of further economic pain as Covid-19 cases continue to rise across Europe.

 

“Additional differences...must be addressed in a comprehensive manner in the next 48 hours.”—A top aide to House Speaker Nancy Pelosi announced a two-day deadline for any stimulus agreement before the election (the deadline is today).

 

“Maybe I’ll have to leave the country.”—President Trump pondered his future plans if he lost to Joe Biden during a campaign rally in Georgia.

 

"Elections aren't always great at bringing people together."—New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern stated the obvious after her Labour Party dominated the country’s general election. Arden has earned international praise for her handling of the coronavirus.

 

“Have you seen Nurse Ratched?”—Your coworker trying to make small talk this morning. Netflix tweeted that 48 million people have watched the show in the first 28 days of its release, making it Netflix’s most popular original Season 1 of the year.

 

FALL CLASSIC - After being pushed to the limit in the league championship series, the top seed in each league has advanced to the World Series, which will be played at a neutral site for the first time since 1944.

The Dodgers are back in the World Series for the third time in the past five years, determined to do what they couldn't do the last two times: end a 32-year championship drought.

The Rays are back in the World Series for the first time since 2008, which was the franchise's 11th year in existence. They're one of six teams without a title (Rockies, Mariners, Brewers, Padres, Rangers).

The Dodgers paid nearly as much in signing bonuses this season ($25.3 million) as the Rays paid in payroll.

Dodgers 2020 payroll: $107.9 million (2nd in MLB)

Rays 2020 payroll: $28.3 million (28th in MLB)

 

SWAMI’S WEEK TOP PICKS

NFL Football Pick of the Week – Sunday 10/25, 5:20 PM (PT), NBC: Tamp Bay Buccaneers (4--) vs. Las Vegas Raiders (3-2). Brady in Vegas, it will not be pleasant, The Raiders win 27 – 24. (Season to Date 4-0)

College Football Pick of the Week – Saturday 10/24, 4:30 PM (PT), ABC: The Big Ten (14) begin their season, #18 Michigan Wolverines (0-0) vs. #21 Minnesota Gophers (0-0). Who knows, family genes tell me Michigan wins 32 – 28. (Season to Date 2-4)

MLB Pick of the Week – Saturday 10/24, 5:08 PM (PT) Fox:  It is still the October Classic, Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Tampa Bay Rays in Game 4 of the World Series. We like the Dodger to win the series, they take game 4, 6 – 4. (Season to Date (3-2)

2020 Season to Date (23 - 17)

ON THIS DATE - Today marks the anniversary of one of the most infamous days in Wall Street history. On October 19, 1987, the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 22.6%, the biggest single-session drop in history. It’s called...drumroll please...Black Monday.

What happened?

The Dow gained 44% in seven months by late August, stoking fears of a bubble.

Then, a “perfect storm” of conditions, including a falling dollar and the recent introduction of computerized trading, accelerated a global selloff.

On Black Monday, risk arbitrage traders, individual investors, and portfolio insurance holders sold stocks like Girl Scout cookies.

Unlike other financial crises, Black Monday didn’t trigger a recession or a banking collapse. The Dow clawed back 57% of Black Monday losses in two sessions. And by September 1989, stocks were at pre-Black Monday levels.

The legacy of Black Monday: Among other market reforms, the U.S. installed circuit breakers that pause trading if stocks fall too much too quickly. If you remember this past March, those circuit breakers were triggered three times in just over a week when the market plummeted at the onset of the pandemic.

 

Next Blog: Trick or Treat

Until Monday October 26, 2020 Adios.

Claremont, California

October 19, 2020

#XI-13-419

2,453 words, eight-minute read

 

CARTOON OF THE WEEKEND – I Voted

 


 

RINK RATS POLL – Dodgers or Rays?

___ Dodgers

___ Rays

___ Who????

 

QUOTE OF THE MONTH" There are two kinds of men in the world ----- those who have a crush on Linda Ronstadt and those who have never heard of her.” ----- Willie Nelson

 

Rink Rats is a blog of weekly observations, predictions and commentary. We welcome your comments and questions. Also participate in our monthly poll. Rink Rats is now viewed in Europe, Canada, South America and the United States.

Posted at Rink Rats The Blog: First Published – May 3, 2010

Our Eleventh Year.

www.rhasserinkrats.blogspot.com

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Saturday, October 3, 2020

Wake Up Call

 Weekend Edition

BUENOS DÍAS good Saturday morning.

Covid-19 is a wake-up call for the West, especially for its elite. This year could mark a reverse in history. Five hundred years ago, Europe was a bloody backwater while China was the most advanced country in the world, with the world’s most sophisticated civil service, selected by rigorous examination from across the whole country. The West overtook the East because its leaders mastered the art of government, producing a succession of powerful innovations—the nation-state, the liberal state, the welfare state—while the Chinese state ossified, its Mandarin elite unaware that it was even in competition with anyone else. By the 1960s, America was putting a man on the moon while millions of Chinese were dying of starvation.

Since the 1960s, however, this process has been reversed. Led by Singapore, Asia has been improving its state machinery while the West has ossified. Covid-19 shows just how far this change in the balance of competence has gone. Countries like South Korea, Singapore and even China have done far better at protecting their citizens than either the U.S. or Britain, where governments have conspicuously failed to work. Been to a Supreme Court nomination announcement lately?

But the biggest change that is needed is a change of mind-set. Unlike the dead aristocrats in the churchyards, the geeks who run Google and Facebook have no sense of guilt to give them pause and few ties of blood and soil to connect them to a particular patch of land. They believe that their fortunes are the product of nothing but their own innate genius. They owe the rest of us nothing.

This needs to change. Over the past decade both the Democratic Party and the Republican Party have been shaken by the forces of populism. The shaking will only get worse if the elites don’t play a more active role in politics. Since the Covid-19 outbreak, we have been reminded that good government can make the difference between life and death. Look at the two cities where the Western elite feel most at home: New York has lost more than 20,000 people, London 6,000 (at times the mortality rate was higher than the Blitz). By contrast, in Seoul, a bigger city with subways, nightclubs and everything else, only around 30 have died.

We live in a knowledge economy. For elites, exercising social responsibility should mean more than giving away money, though that is an admirable thing. It should mean sharing your brain—serving, not just giving. Michael Bloomberg did that as mayor of New York during the difficult decade after 9/11, and Bill Gates is the greatest philanthropist of his time not just because of the amount of money he has spent but because he devotes so much time to designing and driving his philanthropic work.

 

DEAR RINK RATS:

In response to the pandemic, the U.S. government gave employers the option to defer their employees’ Social Security contributions. I just got a notification from my employer that they will not be deferring my contributions, even though I could certainly use the extra money. Why did my employer choose not to defer my payroll tax?

Regards,

Paul A.

Badwater, California

 

DEAR PAUL,

Though deferring your Social Security contribution gives you extra income now, it is not free money. It’s more like a loan from the government, and at some point in the not too distant future, you will have to make up the payments you skip. The risk of payroll tax deferral is that employees will feel richer and increase their spending, leaving them unable to pay their taxes when they come due. For this reason, I think the program will leave most people worse off in the long term, so while your employer may be depriving you of a benefit now, it is actually helping you avoid financial hardship in the future.

Sincerely,

Rink Rats

 

JACK ASS OF THE MONTH – Plenty of candidates for this month, ranging from political, sports, entertainment, and higher education. Speaking of higher education, in May, John Jenkins, the president of Notre Dame wrote an op-ed in The New York Times titled, “We’re Reopening Notre Dame. It’s Worth the Risk.” In the piece, Jenkins also wrote about the challenges that athletics present in the wake of the pandemic but said that, “We believe we can, with aggressive testing, hygiene and careful monitoring, keep student-athletes safe.”

The president of Notre Dame has tested positive for Covid-19 nearly a week after he attended a White House event where he was spotted without a mask.

Fr. John Jenkins tested positive and is now isolated with mild symptoms, according to a message from the school sent to members of the Campus Community Friday afternoon. This comes nearly a week after Jenkins attended the announcement for the White House Supreme Court of the United States nominee Judge Amy Coney Barrett.

He was seen at the announcement shaking hands and not wearing a mask.

On Monday, Jenkins wrote a letter to his students titled "I regret my error of judgment in not wearing a mask," in which he apologized and said he would quarantine out of an abundance of caution in accordance with university protocols.

"I know many of you have read about the White House ceremony I recently attended. I write to express my regret for certain choices I made that day and for failing to lead as I should have," Jenkins said in the letter.

Fr. John Jenkins tested positive and is now isolated with mild symptoms, according to a message from the school sent to members of the Campus Community Friday afternoon.

"My symptoms are mild, and I will continue work from home," Jenkins said in the press release. "The positive test is a good reminder for me and perhaps for all of how vigilant we need to be.”

Americans have been living a grim reality for seven months -- a sheltered and lonely existence tainted by disease, layoffs and general malaise.

But the political class in Washington has been chugging along as if little has changed. Congress comes into session nearly every week without an institutional testing mandate -- thank the bipartisan leadership for that. President Trump holds mostly maskless rallies -- and, for good measure, this week his out-of-town event was matched with a Trump Victory watch party at the Trump Hotel on Pennsylvania Avenue, where lawmakers mingled with one another. And Congress and the administration have been unable to notch a Covid relief agreement for months.

Reality has suddenly intruded on the capital city.

We certainly wish Fr. Jenkins good health and recovery. But his irresponsible personal handling of COVID-19 is one of the main reasons the virus is still haunting America. As an example of our leader’s poor management of this virus Fr. Jenkins is this month’s JACK ASS.

 

BIRTHDAYS THIS WEEK – Birthday wishes and thoughts this week to Karen Ball ….famous sister, Jeff Bracken …famous southern California rancher, Devorah Lieberman … POTULV, Karla Suffredini …famous sister.

 

MARKET WEEK - The U.S. economy added 661,000 jobs last month, and the unemployment rate dipped to 7.9% from 8.4% in August.

The rate of the recovery in the labor market is slowing down. This was the first jobs report since April that showed net hiring below 1 million new jobs.

The slowdown is not exactly a surprise. Economists know the unemployment rate is a lot like your gym routine—easily knocked off track and sluggish to return to full strength. Take these stats, for example:

More than half of the jobs lost in March-April have now been recovered, but that means there are still 10.7 million fewer people with jobs than before the pandemic.

At the current rate, it would take 16 months to recoup all those jobs...but as we just mentioned, the hiring pace is slowing down.

This jobs report capped off a week in which big corporate names announced drastic reductions to their workforces:

Disney cut 28,000 workers at its slumping resorts.

United and American Airlines began to furlough 32,000 employees after stimulus discussions stalled.

Other blue-chip companies, including Allstate and Goldman Sachs, also announced layoffs.

These moves show that the coronavirus is still crimping growth nearly seven months after initial shutdowns. With most of the emergency aid from March spent by now, businesses will increasingly look to the government to ensure the recovery doesn’t completely stall out.


TOP THREE – Rock Bands of all time:

1). The Beatles

2). The Rolling Stones

3). Led Zeppelin

 

THE SWAMI’S WEEKEND PICKS –

NFL Football Pick of the Week – Sunday 10/4, 1:25 PM (PT), CBS: Kansas City Chiefs (3-0) vs. New England Patriots (2-1), Two words – Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs win 38 - 21 . (Season to Date 3-0)

College Football Pick of the Week – Saturday 10/3, 12:30 PM (PT), CBS: South Carolina Gamecocks vs. #3 Florida Gators, it has been awhile but the Gators are legit, 40 - 20. (Season to Date 2-1)

MLB Pick of the Week – Saturday 10/3, 5:07 PM (PT) TBS: Game one of the American League Division Series (Best of Five), New York Yankees vs. Tampa Bay Rays, we like the Yanks in this series (3-2) and in this game,  7 - 4. (Season to Date (3-1)

English Premier League Pick of the Week – Saturday 10/3, 9:30 AM (PT) NBCSN: Leeds United (2-0-1) v. Manchester City (1-0-1), Man City wins 3 - 2.  (Season to Date 1-2)

2020 Season to Date (21 - 15)

 

Next Blog: “Time”

Until Monday October 12, 2020 Adios.

Claremont, California

October 3, 2020

#XI-12-418

1,689 words, five-minute read

 

CARTOON OF THE WEEKEND – Cat Calendar

 


 

RINK RATS POLL – Mail or in-person vote this election?

___ Mail

___ In Person

___ I am not voting

 

QUOTE OF THE MONTH"Forget it’s five o’clock somewhere. It’s 2020 everywhere, drink when you want."Danica Patrick

 

Rink Rats is a blog of weekly observations, predictions and commentary. We welcome your comments and questions. Also participate in our monthly poll. Rink Rats is now viewed in Europe, Canada, South America and the United States.

Posted at Rink Rats The Blog: First Published – May 3, 2010

Our Eleventh Year.

www.rhasserinkrats.blogspot.com