Weekend Edition
Happy October and happy weekend,
everyone!
We begin the final quarter of 2021.
The good, the bad and the ugly: We begin October
with an economy burdened by supply chain problems, inflation rising, help
wanted a popular post on business front doors, stock markets fluctuating, the
usual at the U.S. Congress, budget and debt ceiling undecided, lack of
compromise and leadership. The Thing still controls 50% of this country
Besides this we begin October with higher education
across the country at a loss to figure out changing demographics of their
students and throughout the country you have the have and have nots among colleges
and universities. University haves had record endowment returns June 30, 2021,
federal covid aid funds balance budgets, meanwhile student debt at an all-time
high and staff wages are reduced.
The Detroit Lions are 0-3, the best team in
baseball is not Los Angeles but San Francisco. The National Hockey League
season begins with new television partners (ESPN and TNT), and Clemson and Ohio
State have already lost a football game.
An overwhelming majority of Americans who have
died in recent months, a period in which the U.S. has offered broad access to
shots, were unvaccinated. The latest deaths were concentrated in the South, and
there were more young victims than at any other point in the pandemic. Every
age group under 55 saw its highest death toll of the pandemic this August.
The new and alarming surge of deaths this
summer, when the Delta variant was spreading, means that the coronavirus
pandemic has become the deadliest in U.S. history, overtaking the toll from the
influenza pandemic of 1918 and 1919, which killed about 675,000 people.
The deaths that followed the wide availability
of vaccines, one expert said, were “absolutely needless.”
US coronavirus deaths by month
Feb 2020: 1
Mar: 3,767
Apr: 58,960
May: 42,099
June: 23,416
July: 26,164
Aug: 30,234
Sept: 23,341
Oct: 23,691
Nov: 37,172
Dec: 77,124
Jan 2021: 96,377
Feb: 72,880
Mar: 39,393
Apr: 25,413
May: 18,357
June: 9,775
July: 8,541
Aug: 27,194
Sept: 58,062
Vaccination rates: 9/15/21
France: 72 percent
Canada: 68.7 percent
Italy: 66.3 percent
UK: 65.9 percent
Germany: 62.2 percent
America: 53.9 percent
Extreme Weather - From
record-shattering temps in Oregon to Hurricane Ida in the East, weather
disasters affected nearly 1 in 3 Americans this summer. These weather events,
plus a new UN report that deemed climate change a “code red for humanity,”
sparked more conversation around climate mitigation and adaptation efforts.
Will it lead to action? Democrats cited failures
of our current system (like the NYC subway flooding) as justification for the
bipartisan $1.2 trillion infrastructure bill they’re hoping to pass this week.
Supply Chain Madness - Turns out, the Ever
Given being stuck in the Suez Canal was the least of our supply chain worries
this year. Factory closures in Asia due to Covid-19 have prolonged bottlenecks,
driving inflation higher and delaying your new couch from arriving.
Some stats that illustrate the brokenness of the
global supply chain:
The chip shortage will cost $210 billion this
year, according to a new estimate.
Nike said 80% of its shoe factories in Vietnam
are closed.
This month, the line of container ships waiting
to enter Los Angeles’s and Long Beach’s neighboring ports hit an all-time high
of 65 vessels.
More Stats - There will be more
weddings in the US in 2022 than in any year since 1984, according to market
research firm The Wedding Report. It estimates that 2.5 million weddings will
take place next year, compared to an average of 2.1 million weddings/year
pre-pandemic and 1.2 million weddings in 2020.
Average pay at US supermarkets and restaurants
hit $15/hour for the first time ever, according to the Washington Post. Nearly
80% of US workers now earn a minimum of $15/hour, compared to 60% in 2014.
More than 45% of young people surveyed across 10
countries said climate change caused them anxiety and affected their daily
lives. 56% said they thought humanity was doomed.
Women accounted for a record 59.5% of college
students at the end of the 2020–2021 school year, while men made up just 40.5%.
BIRTHDAYS
THIS WEEK – Birthday wishes and thoughts this week to Hal Assael ….famous educator
and mentor, Karen Ball ….famous sister, Jeff Bracken …famous southern
California rancher, President Jimmy Carter (97), Angie Dickinson (90), Devorah Lieberman … POTULV, Karla Suffredini
…famous sister.
MARKET WEEK - Inflation climbed at the quickest pace in 30
years as supply chain issues continue.
The Personal Consumption Expenditures index, the Federal Reserve’s
preferred price gauge, rose by 4.3 percent in the year through August. That
beat out the July reading of 4.2 percent, another three-decade high. Officials
at the Fed are watching those trends as they consider when to remove the
economic support that the central bank has been providing during the pandemic.
The U.S. is not alone: Inflation in the eurozone climbed to 3.4
percent in September from a year earlier, the highest in 13 years.
The S&P closed out a bumpy September in the red, its first
monthly loss since 2020 (still, it was positive for the third quarter, which
ended yesterday). Bed Bath & Beyond, a meme stock fave, plummeted more than
22% yesterday due to declining store traffic and, what else, supply chain
snags.
US mortgage rates topped 3% for the first time since early July,
tracking rising bond yields. Higher borrowing costs could potentially slow
homebuyers’ roll.
Government shutdown: It was avoided with hours
to spare. Biden signed a stopgap spending bill that extends government spending
through Dec. 3, when Congress will have to figure out another short- or
long-term solution. This bill also includes billions of dollars for Afghan
refugee resettlement and aid for communities hit by recent hurricanes.
Debt ceiling: Congress has until Oct. 18 to suspend or raise
the debt ceiling before the US begins defaulting on its loans, an outcome that
would likely be catastrophic for the economy. Senate Majority Leader Chuck
Schumer is planning a vote on the debt ceiling as soon as next week (lots of
luck with that).
Pandemic discount, we hardly knew ye—rental prices in the US are
skyrocketing. The median national rent for a one-bedroom apartment is up 10.7%
from March 2020, while two-bedrooms are up 13%, according to the Zumper
National Rent Report.
Double digit increases are…not common. For context, 2020 rents
increased 1% from the previous year, and 2019 rents were stagnant compared to
2018. It’s a “shocking level of growth, especially considering the vast
majority of it has come in the last nine months,” wrote Jeff Andrews, the
author of the report.
Why the surge? To put it simply, demand is back. Gen Z renters are
moving out of their childhood homes after a long pandemic, remote-working
millennials are picking apartments in more affordable cities, and baby boomers
are offloading their homes in a seller’s market, opting for rentals instead.
Phoenix, where the one-bedroom median rent increased 24.8% between
January and September.
New York City, where some rents have increased 70% since the dog
days of the pandemic.
MLB FINAL WEEKEND - There's a lot on the line
in MLB's final regular-season weekend, though a couple things wrapped up
Thursday in Atlanta and Houston.
NL East: The Braves swept — and eliminated — the Phillies to win
their fourth straight title. Atlanta spent 126 days without a winning record,
the most for a division winner since the 1989 Blue Jays.
AL Wild Card: The Yankees (91-68) lead the pack, the Red Sox and
Mariners (89-70) are tied for the second spot, and the Blue Jays (88-71) are
still very much alive. Prepare for some beautiful chaos.
NL West: The Giants (105-54) and Dodgers (103-56) remain separated
by two games. Just how good has San Francisco been? L.A. is 41-13 since adding
Trea Turner and Max Scherzer ... and they've gained just one game in that
stretch.
AL West: The Astros beat the Rays to clinch their fourth AL West
title in five years.
ON THIS DATE - Fifty years ago today, the
world got a little smaller when the Magic Kingdom first opened at Disney World
in Florida. Stats to ponder:
Admission in 1971 was $3.50 for adults and $1 for children. It's
$109 now.
The FAA has designated Disney World a “no-fly zone,” a level of
security typically afforded to places like the White House and NASA’s Kennedy Space
Center.
Disney’s bus fleet is the third largest fleet of any Florida
transportation system. (I wish I had bought Disney stock 50 years ago and
never sold.)
TOP FIVE – Five decades after the first James Bond movie,
the wildly popular British spy film franchise releases its much-anticipated
25th canonical installment Friday with “No Time to Die,” marking star Daniel
Craig’s final turn as the suave superspy.
Rink Rats top five James Bond movies:
1. Goldfinger (1964)
2. Spectre (2015)
3. Golden Eye (1995)
4. Skyfall (2012)
5. Dr. No (1962)
THE SWAMI’S
WEEKEND PICKS –
NFL Football Pick of the Week – Monday
10/4, 5:15 PM (PT), ESPN: Las Vegas Raiders (3-0) at Los Angeles Chargers (2-1).
One word: Raiders! 30 – 27. (Season to Date 1-2)
College Football Pick of the Week –
Saturday 10/2, 12:00 PM (PT), #8 Arkansas Razorbacks (4-0) at #2 Georgia Bulldogs
(4-0). SEC at it’s best, Razorbacks in an upset, 35 – 32. (Season to
Date 3-1)
D-III College Football Pick of the
Week – Saturday 10/2, 1:00 PM (ET) ESPN+: #21 Hobart
Statesmen (4-0) at #17 Ithaca College Bombers (3-0). A key Empire 8 contest,
there will 6,000 strong at Butterfield Stadium for this one. Bombers in an upset,
24 – 17. (Season to
Date 2-2)
MLB Pick of the Week – Saturday 10/2, 1:00 PM (ET) TBS: Tampa Bay Rays
(98-61) at New York Yankees (91-68). Final Saturday of the season, Yanks have
to win to clinch a wild-card game on Tuesday. Yanks 5 – 4. (Season to Date (8-7)
2021
Season to Date (46-33)
Next Blog: Jackass of
the Month, College Hockey Preview, Third Quarter Numbers
Until
Monday October 11, 2021 Adios.
Claremont,
California
October
1, 2021
#XII-3-440
1,787 words, five-minute read
CARTOON OF THE WEEKEND – Amy Hwang, Time to be a Cat All Day
RINK RATS POLL – Are you Covid
vaccinated?
___ Yes
___ No
___ None of your business
QUOTE OF THE MONTH – "Unexpected kindness is the
most powerful, least costly, and most underrated agent of human change."
– Bob Kerry
Rink Rats is a blog
of weekly observations, predictions and commentary. We welcome your comments
and questions. Also participate in our monthly poll. Rink Rats is now viewed in
Europe, Canada, South America and the United States.
Posted at Rink Rats The Blog: First Published – May 3, 2010
Our Eleventh Year.
