Monday, June 27, 2022

Clear and Present Danger

 Since our last blog (June 13) things have changed.


SCOTUS OVERTURNS ROE v. WADE - The constitutional right to an abortion in the US has been eliminated after nearly 50 years.

Friday, the conservative-majority Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade, a ruling that strikes down federal protections for abortion and punts abortion regulation to the states.

This ruling is unprecedented: The Supreme Court in history has never before granted a widely recognized constitutional right and then taken it back. This is historic in many ways.

We knew it was coming. Last month, a draft of the opinion was leaked to Politico, which caused shockwaves when it was published. The official opinion stayed close to the draft—in it, Justice Samuel Alito, writing for the majority, claimed that, “The Constitution makes no reference to abortion, and no such right is implicitly protected by any constitutional provision.”

Writing in dissent, the three liberal justices bashed the majority opinion. “Women have relied on Roe and Casey in this way for 50 years. Many have never known anything else. When Roe and Casey disappear, the loss of power, control, and dignity will be immense,” they wrote. “Casey” refers to a 1992 case in which the Supreme Court upheld Roe’s protections. That was also overturned yesterday.

The Supreme Court’s scrapping of Roe contrasts with the public’s view. Prior to the ruling, a majority of Americans (ranging between 60%–70% in two recent polls) said they didn’t want Roe v. Wade to be overturned. At the same time, less than 30% of Americans think that abortion should “generally be legal” after the first trimester, according to Gallup.

Abortion advocates say the overturning of Roe amounts to a radical assault on reproductive rights that sends the country backward.

National Nurses United, the country’s largest nurses’ union, said that abortions, a “vital medical necessity,” will still continue post-Roe, but will move underground, where they’ll be “more expensive, harder to access, and in many cases unsafe.”

Following the leaked opinion last month, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen told lawmakers that overturning Roe “would have very damaging effects on the economy and would set women back decades.”

On the political front, many Republicans cheered the move, applauding former President Trump for appointing three conservative justices that pushed the court far to the right. Democrats are vowing to make it a top issue for the upcoming midterm elections. “This fall, Roe is on the ballot,” President Biden said, calling it a “sad day for the court and for the country.”

Here’s what the abortion landscape looks like now:

Abortions were banned in eight states yesterday, including Arkansas, Louisiana, and Missouri, and were already prohibited in Oklahoma.

Several more have similar “trigger laws” in place that will ban all or most abortions within the coming days and weeks.

Altogether, abortion is likely to become totally illegal or severely restricted in at least 20 states and has an uncertain future in an additional nine.

In response to the court’s ruling, abortion clinics closed, and Planned Parenthood locations canceled abortion appointments in Texas, Wisconsin, and other states that have already outlawed or are likely to outlaw abortion.

On the other hand, abortion rights are likely to remain protected in 21 states, 11 of which are actively expanding the scope of access by, for instance, making appointments easier to schedule and more affordable. Several states, including California and New York, aim to become safe havens; NYC Mayor Eric Adams tweeted, “To those seeking abortions around the country: you are welcome here” with a photo of the Statue of Liberty.

People in states with restricted abortion access will still have two legal avenues to receive abortions. US Attorney General Merrick Garland said yesterday that the Justice Department will protect the right to travel out of state for appointments and that the abortion pill mifepristone cannot be banned by states since it’s FDA-approved.

GUN RIGHTS - Within a span of 12 hours this past Thursday, US government institutions located less than .5 miles from each other charted completely different paths on gun rights at a time when the country is reeling from a wave of mass shootings.

Let’s start with the Supreme Court

Thursday morning, it struck down a New York law that requires people to demonstrate a specific need in order to carry a concealed weapon. The decision means that more Americans will have the right to carry weapons in public, particularly in major cities.

It’s the Supreme Court’s first big gun rights opinion in more than a decade. In two decisions in 2008 and 2010, it guaranteed the right of individuals to keep handguns in their homes.

How the vote went down: In a phrase that’s become almost cliche at this point, the case was decided in a 6–3 opinion, with the conservatives in the majority.

Writing for the majority, Justice Clarence Thomas argued that the Second Amendment shouldn’t be held to a different standard than any other in the Bill of Rights.

Writing in dissent, Justice Stephen Breyer noted that 45,222 Americans were killed by firearms in 2020, and this ruling makes it harder for states to keep citizens safer by restricting access to guns for some people.

At least five other states—California, New Jersey, Maryland, Hawaii, and Massachusetts—have laws similar to New York’s. This ruling opens the floodgates for legal challenges to those regulations.

But later that night on Capitol Hill…

The Senate approved gun safety legislation by a count of 65–33, with 15 Republicans voting in support. It’s a huge breakthrough, representing the most significant gun reform action at the federal level in almost three decades.

What’s in the bill? Enhanced background checks for young gun buyers, funding for school safety and mental health, and incentives for states to enact red flag laws.

The bill will head to the House today, where it’s expected to pass easily.

THE THING – He continues to haunt American democracy, he continues to lie, he continues to degrade fellow citizens who do not support his propaganda. The January 6 hearings have proven to all, The Thing presents a clear and present danger to our Republic.

This week’s hearings showed us that The Thing acted as if he thought he was a king, not a president subject to the same rules as the rest of us. The hearings featured extraordinary testimony about the relentless pressure to subvert the 2020 election that the former president and his allies brought against at least 31 state and local officials in states he lost, like Michigan, Arizona, Georgia and Pennsylvania. He or his allies twisted the arm of everyone from top personnel at the U.S. Department of Justice to lower-level election workers.

The evidence and the testimony offered demonstrate why Attorney General Merrick Garland’s Justice Department should convene a grand jury now, if it hasn’t already, to consider indicting The Thing for crimes related to his attempt to overturn the results of the election, before he declares his candidacy for president in 2024, perhaps as early as this summer.

The testimony from the hearings reveals a coordinated and extensive plot to overturn the will of the people and install The Thing as president despite Joe Biden winning the election by 74 Electoral College votes (not to mention a margin of about seven million in the popular vote). There was political pressure, and sometimes threats of violence, across the board. The Thing and his cronies hounded poll workers and election officials to admit to nonexistent fraud or to recount votes and change vote totals.

Wandrea Moss, known as Shaye, a former Georgia election worker, testified Tuesday about the harassment and violent threats she faced after The Thing allies accused her and her mother of election fraud. As The Associated Press reported, one of The Thing’s lawyers, Mr. Giuliani, pointed to surveillance video of the two women working on ballot counting and “said the footage showed the women ‘surreptitiously passing around USB ports as if they are vials of heroin or cocaine.’” The “USB ports” turned out to be ginger mints.

It is no wonder that election workers and election officials are leaving their offices in fear of violence and harassment.

What The Thing did in its totality and in many individual instances was criminal. If Mr. Garland fails to act, it will only embolden The Thing or someone like him to try again if he loses, this time aided by a brainwashed and cowed army of elected and election officials who stand ready to steal the election next time.

The Thing was the 45th president, not the first American king, but if we don’t deter conduct like this, the next head of state may come closer to claiming the kind of absolute power that is antithetical to everything the United States stands for.

 

BAD TEAMS – Major league baseball is becoming non-watchable. There are at least six bad teams in baseball, my Detroit Tigers are one. Cincinnati, Washington, and Chicago in the National league, Oakland, Kansas City and Detroit in the American league, are all unwatchable. I could include Seattle, Baltimore, Los Angeles Angels, Pittsburgh, Colorado, and Arizona as border line but for the sake of the game they have a chance.

Why unwatchable? One word greed. Like the rest of our world, the haves and the have nots and no one to properly control the game.

What has happened to leadership in this country? The state of baseball is another example of clueless, short sighted, no guts leadership. Let us hope our Gen Z (1997 – present) citizens can deal with this. We certainly cannot.

 

ALL IS NOT LOST - It could have been even better, but let's pause and consider the fact that nearly 20 million lives were saved by COVID-19 vaccines during their first year.

+ Congress just passed the first major federal gun safety legislation in decades.

+ "The upcoming iOS 16 will help battle the growing problem of spam text messages. The latest beta includes the ability to report SMS messages as 'junk' to the user's wireless carrier." More than half of my messages are spam. The other half are donation requests from politicians.

+ The World's Fastest Electric Ferries are Coming to Stockholm.

+ Spray-on plant coating could replace wasteful plastic food wrap. And this: Ontario grower is fixing the 'most complained about' produce item: plastic-wrapped cucumbers.

+ The world's lowest parachute jump attempt.

+ Lol, jaja, xaxa, and all the other ways people laugh around the world. (With you, not at you.)

+ An Indian man has gone viral for his creation of a solar-powered car, a solo project 11 years in the making. (Maybe this guy can buy Twitter...)

+ Finally, my golf index has not been this low in fifteen years (11.7).

Well, I tried.

 

BIRTHDAYS THIS WEEK – Birthday wishes and thoughts this week to Paul McCartney (80), Carly Simon (77), Brian Wilson (80).

 

MARKET WEEK - The S&P 500 fell into official bear-market territory, the week of June 13.

Bear markets aren't great predictors of economic downturns. But the plunge is yet another indicator the economy is likely to slow fast over the next year.

Other major reasons to worry about a downturn:

Soaring energy costs: Energy shocks have preceded 10 of the last 11 recessions.

Fed tightening: The Fed has embarked on a project of raising interest rates — pushing the brakes on the economy — in order to rein in inflation.

Strong dollar: A strong dollar can act as a headwind on the economy, by making our exports too expensive for foreign buyers and hurting manufacturing.

We have officially hit a bear market in the S&P 500 Index. As of last week’s close, the S&P 500 total return is down -21.3% from its highs at the start of this year, breaching the down -20% mark.

How’d we get here? Two words, in our view: stimulus and expectations.

Soon after Covid hit and the world stopped, the Fed jumped in to stabilize the foundation of our financial system (the bond market) with $4.5T of security purchases. It was followed by an additional $3.6T of US government money, first to businesses and then to the consumer directly through extra unemployment benefits, child-tax-credit payments, and checks in the mail.

Today, we find ourselves in a place where all that helpful stimulus money is unwinding. Since the start of the year, the market has been trying to find the correct expectations of the future.

So, while the ignition for this drop was Friday’s inflation report (+8.6% year over year for May), the greater driving factor is still a question centered on valuations.

The inflation report was a little higher than officially expected (by 0.3%), and with the benefit of near-term hindsight, it seems that unspoken expectations were for inflation to come in lower. So anything at the same level, or even mildly higher, was going to set off the stock market drop we got last week, following through to Friday.

The greater reference to valuation — the value the market agrees to pay today for a company’s future earnings — is that it’s trying to find what businesses should be worth in the future, knowing that the stimulus is gone, and inflation is here.

In terms of numbers, the 12-month forward price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) for the S&P 500 Index is now about 16.5x, down from a peak of 23x last year. In a historical context, this is in line to above some of the historical averages: 10-year (16.9), 20-year (15.5), and 25-year (16.5).

So far, all of the fall in valuations this year have come from the drop in the “P” (prices), versus a fall in earnings expectations — the “E.” That’s because earnings estimate for this year and next are still at record highs.

Will the market continue to fall?

Anything is possible. Looking back to 1945, when bear markets occurred, 70% of the time they related to a recession, and the average return during a recession was -30%.

From here, further drops in the market depend more greatly on the “E,” as expectations for the next 12 months and for 2023 are high and likely need to come down. For context, aggregate earnings for the S&P 500 Index are expected to be +10% higher for each of the next two years. That seems inconsistent with rising costs and the related expectation of slowing growth. As a result, it’s reasonable that earnings may actually be lower than current expectations by 5%. Assuming this is about right, in our analysis, it could mean market levels would look closer to fair value if down further, by mid-single digits. Thus, the S&P 500 would come close to 30% down for the year, and in line with the average for a recession.

Will we have a recession?

It’s very possible — led by reassessment of corporate earnings while they cut their costs from higher expenses and softer demand. If that’s right, we are about two-thirds of the way through the market downturn (closer to the bottom than the top).

Could we be wrong about this? (Yes — and we sort of hope we are, to the upside.)

Evidence of better earnings growing, a quicker cooling of inflation than expected, and even ancillary events such as a true shift in Covid policy from China or a ceasefire in Russia’s war on Ukraine, can quickly shift expectations positively.

What does this mean for investors?

Diversification is often the answer to a lot of investing questions. It’s never a bad time to review your positions and your plan (or make one). When looking through your portfolio, consider the balance of holdings — higher-quality or lower-valued areas such as dividend stocks, and those in energy and healthcare can be attractive to some investors and can serve as a balance for riskier growth companies that may take longer than average to recover. In addition, depending on your personal situation and investing style, keeping funds available for a “dip buy” may also be prudent.

Volatility is higher these days but try not to let it trigger an investment reaction. Staying the course may be the right decision as equity markets have historically provided positive returns over the long term*.

*S&P 500 Total Returns:

10 years ending May 2022 14.37%

20 years ending May 2022 9.13%

30 years ending May 2022 10.10%

Rink Rats portfolio is down 12.51% for the last year.

MARKETS: YEAR-TO-DATE

 

            Nasdaq         11,607.62   -25.81%

            S&P    3,911.74      -17.93%

            Dow   31,500.68   -13.31%

            10-Year Treasury Yield   3.136%   +162.2 bps

            Bitcoin          $21,021.95 -54.60%

            Oil       $108.16       +43.82%

 

CHRONICLES OF HIGHER EDUCATION – The ongoing enrollment crisis at U.S. colleges and universities deepened in spring 2022, raising concerns that a fundamental shift is taking place in attitudes toward the value of a college degree — even as the coronavirus pandemic has disrupted operations for higher education.

The latest college enrollment figures released on Thursday by the National Student Clearinghouse Research Center indicated that 662,000 fewer students enrolled in undergraduate programs in spring 2022 than a year earlier, a decline of 4.7 percent. Graduate and professional student enrollment, which had been a bright spot during the pandemic, also declined 1 percent from last year.

Doug Shapiro, the center’s executive director, noted small gains in first-year, first-time students. However, he suggested that the numbers and the breadth of the declines indicate an underlying change, as students question whether college is the ticket to the middle class and a good-paying job.

Prospective college students may be weighing the relative value of jobs that require or expect a college degree against equally attractive opportunities that do not.

Overall, total undergraduate enrollment has dropped by nearly 1.4 million — or 9.4 percent — during the pandemic. When the pandemic emerged in spring 2020, many colleges moved to online instruction, and some students did not report to campus at all, changes that considerably altered the traditional college experience.

Even before the pandemic, though, college enrollment had been dropping nationally, with institutions of higher learning buffeted by demographic changes, as the number of college-age students leveled off, as well as questions about student debt. A highly polarizing immigration debate also drove away international students.

While elite colleges and universities have continued to attract an overflow of applicants, the pandemic has been devastating for many public universities, particularly community colleges, and tuition driven private universities, which serve many low- and moderate-income students.

Declines occurred generally across the country but were slightly more pronounced in the Midwest and Northeast.

How have universities changed their strategies due to the pandemic? By following the money: federal higher education recovery funds, private grants, more student debt, and cow tying to donors for funding of their agendas.

Here are five of the permanent changes to higher education because of the pandemic:

1). Testing will remain optional - Eliminating standardized testing increases the probability that the student population will be more diverse.

2). Online and hybrid learning will continue - One of the oldest challenges in higher education has been ever-increasing tuition costs. With universities already having been forced into shifting many classes online, there’s a very real possibility of fewer international students absorbing the expense of attending in person in the future. While online classes do not optimize the college experience for students—“Zoom university isn’t proper online learning,” said Sanjay Sarma, MIT’s vice-president for open learning, who emphasizes that learning must be a two-way endeavor—the fact that it had to happen at all and is continuing indicates that it isn’t going away.

3). Mastery of education technology - After the initial shock of being thrown into online learning by students and online instruction by teachers wore off, universal acceptance of technology as a permanent part of higher education became necessary. Over the past year and a half, it has evolved, and it will continue to do so—and mastery of learning management systems (Blackboard, Brightspace, Google Education and others) and distance learning software (Zoom, Adobe Connect, Teams, et al) became mandatory. Professional development going forward will include mastery of new technology by both faculty and students as it is developed and released in order to optimize efficiency and performance.

4). Value will have to be demonstrated - Colleges and universities will have to be more reflective about the value they offer in exchange for ever-rising tuition costs and whether families will be willing to pay for that perceived value, particularly with so much of the experience being online. By extension, going forward, both parents and students will want to know how successful the university is at launching graduates into prosperous careers—in other words, the questions will become harder and the “tires kicked more” before commitments to attend are made.

5). Elite colleges and universities will no longer be considered the gold standard - Poor records of admitting minorities and poor students and a lack of commitment to growing enrollments in non-traditional ways are expected to cause many universities once considered the crème de la crème of higher learning to be pushed further down the list of most-coveted to attend. Instead, public flagships and up-and-coming private schools that are more innovative, cost-effective, and student- and employer-centric will be more attractive.

 

TITLE IX - It took just 37 words to change the course of education for millions of women and girls in the United States. Yet the succinct language in Title IX, the landmark education law that was signed in 1972, has origins in even fewer characters.

“You come on too strong for a woman.”

That was what Dr. Bernice Sandler was told in 1969 when she applied for a permanent position at the University of Maryland, where she was already an adjunct professor. Three years later — after a class-action lawsuit on behalf of women in higher education and the sly maneuvering of a handful of lawmakers — women were given a means to ensure equal access to education for the first time in American history.

For its sweeping repercussions, Title IX passed with little fanfare, a notable whisper nestled between two other landmark provisions meant to bestow rights to women within a 12-month period: The Equal Rights Amendment and Roe v. Wade. Fifty years later, only one of the three remains standing.

The Equal Rights Amendment, which proposed an explicit guarantee for equal protection for women in the U.S. Constitution, was first proposed in 1923 and approved by the Senate on March 22, 1972. But not enough states ratified it within a 10-year deadline for it to be added.

Title IX was signed by President Richard M. Nixon on June 23, 1972.

Roe v. Wade, the Supreme Court decision that legalized abortion in the United States, was announced on Jan. 22, 1973. But the Supreme Court overturned that on Friday, eliminating the constitutional right to abortion after almost 50 years.

So, what has made Title IX so durable? An act of Congress and broad public support, for starters. But even though Title IX was intended to equalize college admissions, perhaps its most visible achievement has been the inclusion of women in interscholastic sports, leading to an explosion in numerous youth sports for girls.

The Equal Rights Amendment, Roe v. Wade and Title IX are all linked by their attempts to target gendered inequality in American society, but they differ in how they used law and policy to enact change.

The Equal Rights Amendment was an attempt to amend the Constitution, a process that is intended to be very difficult. Yet had it been ratified,  it would have been far more sweeping than any other single policy.

Roe v. Wade, conversely, was an interpretation of constitutional law, as a decision by the Supreme Court. It was overturned Friday with a 6-3 ruling.

DRIVING THE WEEK - All eyes are on the Fed, inflation, and the consumer.

While the Chairman Powell has been consistent in his stance the past several days testifying before the House and Senate Banking Committees, we will continue to hear from Powell and other Fed members the next several days in various forums.

Macro data continues to pour in on housing and consumer sentiment, but on a micro level we get a look at some consumer goods companies and what they are seeing in terms of demand.

An even closer look at supply chains and inflation, Micron Technology, Inc. reporting earnings on Thursday should help clarify the state of semiconductors and chip makers after what has been a volatile year for the sector and those they supply.

Tuesday … Economic Policy Institute virtual discussion on the “The Economics of Abortion” Tuesday … House Financial Services oversight subcommittee hearing on the housing market and private equity Tuesday …

Final first-quarter GDP data released Wednesday … Fed Chair Jerome Powell participates in a discussion with global central bankers at the European Central Bank Forum in Sintra, Portugal, Wednesday … House Financial Services hearing on long-term impacts of the hot housing market Wednesday. Personal consumption and inflation date released Thursday. California increases gas tax from 51.1 to 53.9 cents per gallon Friday.

Airlines scramble ahead of July Fourth: With the upcoming weekend expected to be the busiest for airports since the Covid pandemic began, airlines are working to limit the flight delays and cancellations that have clogged their customer services lines so far this summer. Simply nixing flights has become a popular strategy: US airlines have slashed their June–August schedules by 15% compared to their OG plans, according to Airlines for America.

Economy: Several retailers (Nike, Bed Bath & Beyond) will report earnings, and an inflation measure closely watched by the Fed drops on Thursday.

Wimbledon starts, with geopolitical undertones: The fancy-pants tennis tournament kicks off today on the London grass. Serena Williams will return to singles competition after a yearlong absence, but no players from Russia or Belarus (including men’s No. 1 Daniil Medvedev) will be playing—they were barred from competition over the war in Ukraine.

 

Everything else:

Ghislaine Maxwell is scheduled to be sentenced tomorrow after being convicted of a sex-trafficking scheme with former BF Jeffrey Epstein.

Canada Day is July 1 (Friday).

The Tour de France also starts on Friday.

 

Most Americans — anyone who wasn't an adult by the '70s — are getting a first taste of living with high inflation.

Prices are up for most of our favorite summer things:

Flying on a plane.

Sending kids to camp.

Booking a hotel room.

Lighting fireworks.

Renting a car.

Buying food for backyard barbecues.

The Consumer Price Index shows average prices rose 8.6% over the past year — a level last seen in the 1970s, an era known for such mood-dulling terms as stagflation and malaise.

Reality check: The unemployment rate is a low 3.6%. And Americans are doing substantially better than people in many corners of the world.

 

🕶️ The bright side: People who are already frugal (because of the pandemic) are certainly having a moment.

And you could spend your summer sipping AriZona iced tea and eating Costco rotisserie chicken and hot-dog combos — products with famously stable prices.

 

ASK RINK RATS – some questions from our readers.

 

What’s the best advice you ever received?

“Never forget that the toes you step on today may be connected to the ass you have to kiss tomorrow.”

 

What fictional person do you wish were real?

Atticus Finch.

 

What real person do you wish were fictional?

The Thing

 

If you were given a billboard in Times Square, what would you put on it?

“Keep calm and carry on.”

 

STANLEY CUP CHAMPS – The Tampa Bay Lightning’s reign at the top of the National Hockey League is over and a new one may well be starting, as the Colorado Avalanche became the 2022 Stanley Cup champions.

The Avalanche dispatched the two-time defending champions 2-1 on the road to win the series in six games.

Note: The Swami did predict the Avs to win at the beginning of the playoff season. Though their opponent was to be the Florida Panthers.

The Avs won 72 games this season, tying the 1976-77 Canadiens, 1983-84 Oilers and 1995-96 Red Wings for the most in NHL history. They are, quite simply, one of the best teams ever.

Season: 56-19-7

Playoffs: 16-4

Colorado dominated at times during these playoffs but also notched 10 come-from-behind wins, tying the 2009 Penguins for the most in a single postseason.

They're the fourth team in NHL history to post all four series-clinching wins on the road.

Now, they'll make up for those missed celebrations with the biggest party Denver can muster.

Cale Makar is the first player to ever win the Hobey Baker Award (best college player), Calder Trophy (Rookie of the Year), Norris Trophy (top defenseman), Conn Smythe Trophy (MVP of the playoffs) and a Stanley Cup. And he's only 23 years old.

One thing negative from the NHL playoffs, the performance of ESPN broadcasting the games. Time to steal a quality announcer from Canada, a football announcer does not cut it. Mark Messier and Chris Chelios do not cut it as well. ESPN has a quality off ice announcer in Leah Hextall in their employ, use her. The reporter they have now is weak. In the U.S. TNT has a better broadcast.

Clean this up over the summer ESPN.

The Swami Season to Date (14 - 9)

 

Next Blog: Summer holiday edition.

Until July 1, 2022, Adios.

Claremont, California

June 27, 2022

#XIII-4-450

 

4,980 words, eight-minute read

 

CARTOON OF THE WEEK – Drabble by Kevin Fagan

 


RINK RATS POLL - Do you think pineapple belongs on a pizza?

____ Yes

____ No

 

QUOTE OF THE WEEK“I ask no favor for my sex. All I ask of our brethren is that they take their feet off our necks.”Ruth Bader Ginsburg


Rink Rats is a blog of weekly observations, predictions and commentary. We welcome your comments and questions. Also participate in our monthly poll. Rink Rats is now viewed in Europe, Canada, South America and the United States.

Posted at Rink Rats The Blog: First Published – May 3, 2010

Our Thirteenth Year.

www.rhasserinkrats.blogspot.com

Monday, June 13, 2022

If

 

BY RUDYARD KIPLING

 

If you can keep your head when all about you  

    Are losing theirs and blaming it on you,  

If you can trust yourself when all men doubt you,

    But make allowance for their doubting too;  

If you can wait and not be tired by waiting,

    Or being lied about, don’t deal in lies,

Or being hated, don’t give way to hating,

    And yet don’t look too good, nor talk too wise:

 

If you can dream—and not make dreams your master;  

    If you can think—and not make thoughts your aim;  

If you can meet with Triumph and Disaster

    And treat those two impostors just the same;  

If you can bear to hear the truth you’ve spoken

    Twisted by knaves to make a trap for fools,

Or watch the things you gave your life to, broken,

    And stoop and build ’em up with worn-out tools:

 

If you can make one heap of all your winnings

    And risk it on one turn of pitch-and-toss,

And lose, and start again at your beginnings

    And never breathe a word about your loss;

If you can force your heart and nerve and sinew

    To serve your turn long after they are gone,  

And so hold on when there is nothing in you

    Except the Will which says to them: ‘Hold on!’

 

If you can talk with crowds and keep your virtue,  

    Or walk with Kings—nor lose the common touch,

If neither foes nor loving friends can hurt you,

    If all men count with you, but none too much;

If you can fill the unforgiving minute

    With sixty seconds’ worth of distance run,  

Yours is the Earth and everything that’s in it,  

    And—which is more—you’ll be a Man, my son!

 

One of my favorite poems. Happy Father’s Day to all.

 

WELCOME BACK KOTTER - Teaching has become one of the most draining jobs in America.

Today's teachers are navigating school shootings, a pandemic and intensifying political interference in their lesson plans — all while their wages remain stagnant.

Teachers are asking whether the burdens are worth it. Experts warn of a coming staffing shortage.

Teaching has long been an underpaid profession. But in the last two years, America's demands on its educators have mounted.

When the pandemic hit, teachers were asked to take on virtual instruction overnight — a task many felt unprepared for, both in their own skills, and the technology available to them and their students.

When schools reopened, teachers became essential workers who risked infection — and their lives — to come into classrooms.

They feel unsafe in a country that has already seen 27 school shootings this year.

And their classrooms have become political minefields, as lawmakers dictate what they can teach, what students read and what programs are offered to help kids with their social and emotional needs.

In the 1970s, the U.S. minted roughly 200,000 new teachers a year. That has fallen to below 90,000.

An NEA survey found 55% of educators are considering leaving the profession earlier than they planned.

😎 Schools are still filled with passionate teachers who care deeply for their students.

Sari Beth Rosenberg, who teaches high school history in New York City, said: "Classrooms might be our last great hope in helping this generation come up with solutions to fix these crises."

 

2024 WATCH, GOP EDITIONThe Thing may be teasing a comeback bid, but he hasn’t scared others off: No fewer than 15 Republicans are testing the waters for a 2024 presidential campaign. Mike Pence is eyeing South Carolina and the DEVOS family. Florida Gov. RON DESANTIS will use his reelection margin as a metric. MIKE POMPEO contacted CHARLIE KIRK. Some donors and activists are urging the party to move on from The Thing. Yet he still remains the frontrunner for now.

Sen. LINDSEY GRAHAM (R-S.C.), an erstwhile Thing competitor and current Thing ally, doesn’t sound worried: “The day that The Thing makes it clear he’s going to run — it would be a mountain to climb to beat him … If it’s a policy election, he’s in good shape. It’s his primary to lose.”

 

POTUS ABROAD — A controversial trip by President JOE BIDEN to Saudi Arabia will be announced as soon as Monday, as one leg on a Middle East expedition that will also include Israel. The much-ballyhooed meeting with authoritarian Crown Prince MOHAMMED BIN SALMAN is currently on the agenda. Biden told reporters earlier Saturday that he hadn’t made a decision yet about Saudi Arabia, but that any trip there would encompass more than just energy discussions. (The pressure to lower gas prices via more Saudi oil output is, of course, a major piece of the relationship.)

 


JACKASS OF THE MONTH – Speaking of the Saudis, this leads us to our Jackass of the Month.

After months of speculation, LIV (LIV stands for fifty-four the number of holes played in each event) Golf finally teed off this past week in London. We may be witnessing the dawn of a new era, or maybe just the early days of a well-funded startup doomed to fail. Either way, men's professional golf has changed forever, and there's no going back.

LIV is highly controversial, partly due to conflicts with the PGA Tour and partly because of where the money is coming from: the Saudi Arabian government.

LIV is funded by Saudi Arabia's sovereign wealth fund, and critics allege the country is using golf to boost its global image (aka "sportswashing").

A huge part of LIV's appeal is money. The Saudis have pledged $400 million for this season, with $225 million going toward prize money. They're also giving top players guaranteed money just to join.

Each LIV golf event has a $25 million purse, and the winner gets $4 million. There are no cuts, so even last place earns $120,000. The season finale has a $50 million purse.

By comparison, the 2022 Masters had a record $15 million purse, and winner Scottie Scheffler pocketed $2.7 million. The 39 players who missed the cut went home with nothing.

LIV Golf, fronted by Hall of Famer Greg Norman, Rink Rats Jack of the Month, can play favorites, and is promising life-changing money. Norman tried something similar in 1994 with the World Golf Tour, but the PGA Tour shot it down (then basically stole the idea). How will it play out this time?

LIV is here, and it will likely be here for a while. The question is what it ultimately becomes: A PGA Tour competitor that demands attention, or a glitzy sideshow that never truly breaks through?

Greg Norman is another fine example of an egocentric narcissist who bullies and intimidates those whom he does business with. BTW he is friends with The Thing.

As professional golf spins towards chaos, we thank Greg Norman for leading the way. Rink Rats Jack Ass of the Month.

 

PAST PERFORMANCE / REAL ESTATERon Herrera (RR reader) this is for you.

If you invest in a stock fund, you will be told something along the lines of: “Past performance is not indicative of future results.” The Securities and Exchange Commission actually requires this type of disclosure.

The words are a cliche at this point, but they’re useful in investing and real estate, too. Just because a home sells for 20% more than it was worth a year ago does not mean its value will soar another 20% during the next 12 months. In fact, it might mean quite the opposite.

On the other hand, looking back at historical price trajectories can actually be a useful clue that a market is overvalued. But beyond a gut feeling that things are heating up too fast, how is a homebuyer or seller supposed to know the trends in their market?

I really like this tool from Florida Atlantic University and Florida International University. It compares the current average home price in the 100 largest U.S. markets to what the price would be if historical trends continued.

 Prices are currently above trend in every market analyzed. The biggest gap is in Boise, Idaho. Buyers there paid $516,548 on average in April. The expected price? Just $299,202 — or 73% less.

“If we’re not at the peak of the current housing cycle, we’re awfully close,” Ken H. Johnson, an economist in FAU’s College of Business, said in a news release. “Recent buyers in many of these cities may have to endure stagnant or falling home values while the market settles — and that’s not what they want to hear if they had planned to resell anytime soon.”

 

MARKET WEEK – We've seen this stag film before... "The global economy may be headed for years of weak growth and rising prices, a toxic combination that will test the stability of dozens of countries still struggling to rebound from the pandemic, the World Bank warned Tuesday. Not since the 1970s — when twin oil shocks sapped growth and lifted prices, giving rise to the malady known as 'stagflation' — has the global economy faced such a challenge." WaPo (Gift Article): World Bank warns global economy may suffer 1970s-style stagflation. (Can we at least also have the 1970s quality of music and movies to go with it?)

INFLATION NATION — With less than five months to go before the midterms, Americans still haven’t gotten relief from high prices at the pump and the supermarket — just the opposite. The new inflation report out Friday morning shot past expectations: Consumer prices in May leaped 8.6% year over year, the highest jump since December 1981. They increased a full 1% from April. More details from the NYT

Everything from food to energy to cars to rent saw continued price increases last month. The “core” measure of inflation, which sets aside food and energy, leapt 6% year over year and 0.6% month to month. U.S. stocks plummeted on the news.

It is particularly dispiriting news for struggling Americans and policymakers because some indicators in the past few weeks had suggested that the U.S. might have passed the inflation peak. Economists and Biden administration officials had been hoping for a decrease. “We are looking to inflation moderating in the months ahead,” a White House official told reporters Thursday, per Eleanor Mueller.

 


Meanwhile, average gas prices sit at $4.99 as of today — just a tick away from a $5 threshold that will surely unleash a wave of bad headlines. To state the obvious, President JOE BIDEN’s foremost economic challenge doesn’t look like it’s fading anytime soon. Biden acknowledged in a statement today, “we must do more—and quickly—to get prices down here in the United States.”

The bad inflation news will likely embolden the Fed to continue on its pathway of raising interest rates, even as the central bank tries to walk a tightrope of not cooling down the economy too much. The report raises the odds that the Fed will push through yet another half-percentage-point increase in September, following expected raises this month and in July, WSJ’s Nick Timiraos reports.

An American household now has to pay an additional $460 every month to buy the same things they did a year ago.

 


 

BIRTHDAYS THIS WEEK – Birthday wishes and thoughts this week to Marv Albert (81), Elizabeth Hurley (57), Joe Montana (66), Dick Vitale (83).

 

SUMMER MOVIES - Here are the top movies — a mix of franchise films and new concepts — premiering this summer:

"Top Gun: Maverick" (May 27)

"Jurassic World: Dominion" (June 10)

Pixar's "Lightyear" (June 17)

"Elvis" (June 24)

"Minions: The Rise of Gru" (July 1)

"Thor: Love and Thunder" (July 8)

Jordan Peele's "Nope" (July 22)

 

CHRONICLES OF HIGHER EDUCATION – Piedmont University (Demorest, Ga.) provost Daniel Silber resigned abruptly on Tuesday in protest of proposed budget cuts and faculty layoffs, which the Board of Trustees was set to vote on this week.

In a highly critical email to colleagues announcing his departure, Silber wrote that the proposed budget cuts—which would be the second round this year—were “morally wrong" and that the budget process “failed to be properly inclusive.” He also argued that notifying faculty that they were being let go after the end of the academic year didn’t give them enough time to find new employment for next semester.

“I refuse to be a party to terminations that are carried out in such an unethical manner,” wrote Silber, who also served as senior vice president for academic affairs. “Now that this draconian measure is being implemented, I have no moral choice but to leave the institution.”

Steve Nimmo, dean of the school of arts and sciences, will take over as vice president for academic affairs on an interim basis. Piedmont has yet to name an acting provost.

Silber’s resignation comes just a month after the Piedmont Faculty Senate issued a vote of no confidence in university president James Mellichamp, in part over “mismanagement” of the school’s finances and a lack of budgetary transparency, according to the faculty resolution. The Board of Trustees dismissed the faculty call for Mellichamp’s resignation, expressing “complete confidence” in the president.

Piedmont cut 8 percent of its faculty in February and has yet to give any of its current faculty contracts for next academic year.

After a meeting to discuss the initial round of budget cuts in February, administrators promised there would be no more faculty reductions. But in April, the Board of Trustees rejected the budget that Mellichamp submitted for the coming academic year. Mellichamp announced that further cuts would have to be made—including 15 additional faculty positions.

“We are approximately two months away from the fall semester,” he said. “Telling a longtime faculty member, ‘You don’t have a job’ and leaving them with no hope of finding one for next year because everybody has already filled their positions, I think that is not morally defensible.”

In an email to faculty and staff on June 8, Mellichamp pushed back on the picture Silber painted in his resignation email, pinning the university’s budget shortfall on external circumstances.

“Our budget has been impacted by the pandemic, declines in graduate enrollment, volatility in the stock market, and overall economic uncertainty weighing on prospective students and their families,” he wrote. “Under these conditions, we have had to make difficult decisions as we chart the institution’s path through the pandemic and beyond.”

President Mellichamp’s justifications are only a small part of the story behind Piedmont’s financial troubles, which he said stem from mismanagement by administrators and the board.

“This is not because of the pandemic. The finances of the school have not been handled properly for the past three years. Because of that, we find ourselves in a difficult financial situation, and the administration wants to balance that budget by eliminating faculty positions.”

In their no-confidence resolution, the Piedmont faculty cite unforced budgetary errors and expanded “real estate ventures” as reasons for the budget shortfall.

According to the resolution, Mellichamp and other senior administration knew about the university’s “dire financial situation” for many months before faculty were made aware. This lack of communication is part of the problem that led to both the no-confidence vote and Silber’s resignation, and that the continued uncertainty has led remaining faculty members to consider looking for other work pre-emptively.

“I’ve got a number of faculty members who tell me they are actively searching, because they don’t want to be left in the lurch. “It is not good news for the university that we’re in this situation … Every day that this drags on there’s the potential we lose good faculty members.”

The saga at Piedmont—from the initial budget cuts to the vote of no confidence to Silber’s resignation—points to a failure of communication among the Board of Trustees, the senior administration and the faculty.

“The real story here is about shared governance. “For a college or university to succeed, there has to be a synergy among the three groups, there has to be transparency and there has to be a willingness to engage in a dialogue that doesn’t turn public and ugly. And it looks like Piedmont failed on all those counts.”

Barbara Gitenstein, senior vice president of the Association of Governing Boards and a former president of the College of New Jersey, said that as the liaison between the Board of Trustees and the university’s internal constituents, senior administrators are responsible for informing stakeholders about financial issues early and having conversations with those whom budget cuts would affect.

“In any situation where you have to share unhappy news, earlier and more open conversations are always better and lead to healthier results,” she said.

 

DRIVING THE WEEK

             At least 20 million people watched the first televised hearing held by the House committee investigating the Capitol attack Thursday night—about on par with a major Sunday Night Football game.

             Tesla filed for a 3:1 stock split.

             US luxury home sales plunged in the three months through April for their largest drop since the pandemic began.

             Microsoft’s Xbox TV app will go live later this month, which will allow 2022 Samsung smart TV and monitor owners to play games without a console.

House Financial Services Chair Maxine Waters (D-Calif.) speaks at the NCRC conference Tuesday … House Financial Services marks up legislation Tuesday … Senate Banking hearing on index fund voting process Tuesday … SEC Chair Gary Gensler speaks at a Wall Street Journal event about new climate disclosures Tuesday …

Federal Open Market Committee meeting Tuesday and Wednesday … Powell press conference on Wednesday … House Ways and Means hearing on working women and a stronger economy Wednesday … Senate Finance hearing on supply chain backlogs Wednesday … New York Fed conference on the international roles of the U.S. dollar Thursday and Friday.

Just before 2:30 a.m. on Nov. 4, 2020, then-President DONALD TRUMP went before a group of supporters at the White House and prematurely declared victory over JOE BIDEN in an election he ultimately lost.

Today at 10 a.m., that moment — and the avalanche of lies about the election that followed — will be front and center as the House committee investigating the Jan. 6 attack (1) highlights the origins of the “Big Lie” about the 2020 election, (2) shows how it spread and (3) attempts to prove that in the weeks and months following Election Day, even as Trump continued to falsely claim that he’d actually won, he privately knew he’d lost — and that his public insistence otherwise led to the insurrection.

 

DAMN YANKEES - The Yankees are off to one of MLB's best starts in decades, sitting at 44-16 exactly one-third of the way through the season.

They are just the fifth team since 1985 to win 44 of their first 60 games and are just three games off the pace of the 2001 Mariners, who won an MLB record-tying 116 games.

Two of the previous four teams won the World Series (1998 Yankees, 2016 Cubs). The 2001 Mariners lost in the ALCS, while the 1998 Braves lost in the NLCS.

The red-hot Yanks are 9-1 in their last ten games,  38-10 in their last 48 games.

The Yankees' success has been driven by their MLB-best rotation, which has gone atomic during their current four-game win streak (four total earned runs). On the season, all five rank in the top 14 among the AL's ERA leaders.

 

LOS ANGELES DODGERS WHO IS BROADCASTING TODAY? – Many fans in Southern California are not happy these days about the revolving door in the Dodgers broadcast booth.

The days of Vin Scully doing a solo broadcast are gone. Joe Davis, Charley Steiner, Rick Monday and untold others is bush league. Baseball teams need chemistry to succeed. The same applies to the broadcast booth. Ernie Harwell I miss you!

 

LIGHTNING STRICKES THRICE – The Tampa Bay Lightning are four wins away from hoisting their third straight Stanley Cup, a feat that hasn't been accomplished since Ronald Reagan was in the White House.

Three-peats aren't just rare in the NHL. Only eight franchises have gone back-to-back-to-back in the history of the four major North American sports leagues, and it hasn't happened in 20 years.

 

🏒 NHL: Three teams on five occasions — Maple Leafs (1947-49, 1962-64); Canadiens (1956-60, 1976-79); Islanders (1980-83).

🏀 NBA: Three teams on five occasions — Lakers (1952-54, 2000-02); Bulls (1991-93, 1996-98); Celtics (1959-66).

⚾️ MLB: Two teams on four occasions — Yankees (1936-39, 1949-53, 1998-2000); Athletics (1972-74).

🏈 NFL: There have been no three-peats in the Super Bowl era. (The Packers did it twice in the earlier years: 1929-31 and 1956-67.)

The Stanley Cup Final (Lightning vs. Avalanche) begins Wednesday in Denver. We'll break down the matchup in the days ahead. The Swami likes Colorado in six games.

 

THE SWAMI’S WEEKEND PICKS

MLB Game of the Week – Saturday 6/18, 4:10 PM (EDT), FS1: Chicago White Sox (27-31) vs. Houston Astros (37-23). Could be Chicago Manager Tony LaRussa’s last weekend managing. As he has been under fire recently for a number of bad in-game decisions. Astros win 5 – 3.

U.S.G.A. Open Golf Championship – Thursday 6/16 – Sunday 6/19, NBC Sports: Our top three picks for the U.S. Open:

1). Justin Thomas

2). Sam Burns

3). Rory McIlroy

Season to Date (10 - 6)

 

OLD GLORY – Tuesday June 14 is Flag Day, commemorating the adoption by Congress of the red, white, and blue flag with 13 stars on June 14, 1777. President Harry S. Truman designated the day as National Flag Day in 1949.

The American Legion, founded in 1919 after the conclusion of World War I asks people to remember the following:

             When hoisting or lowering the flag, salute or placer a hand over your heart.

             The flag should not be displayed on rainy days, unless it is an all-purpose flag.

             When lowered, the flag should never toucvh anything beneath it.

 

Next Blog: How the pandemic has change colleges

Until June 27, 2022, Adios.

Claremont, California

June 13, 2022

#XIII-3-449

 

3,768 words, six-minute read

 

CARTOON OF THE WEEKBlondie, Dean Young & John Marshall

 


RINK RATS POLL - Do you plan on moving into a new home or apartment in the next six months?

____ Yes

____ No

 

QUOTE OF THE WEEK“Now that we have learned to fly in the air like birds and dive in the sea like fish. Only one thing remains – To learn to live on earth like humans.” George Bernard Shaw


Rink Rats is a blog of weekly observations, predictions and commentary. We welcome your comments and questions. Also participate in our monthly poll. Rink Rats is now viewed in Europe, Canada, South America and the United States.

Posted at Rink Rats The Blog: First Published – May 3, 2010

Our Eleventh Year.

www.rhasserinkrats.blogspot.com