The Year of Living Dangerously

New Years eve in Clareville, California: after four days of rain (for Southern California this is a big deal) cloudless skies and 62 degrees highlight the end of 2021.

2021 was a year of many more lows than highs. The COVID virus claimed 823,000 American lives, 105,000 lives were lost to drug overdoses, the majority from opioid use. Marines from the 2nd Battalion, 1st Marines Regiment were on duty outside the Kabul airport on Aug. 26 when a suicide bomber detonated explosives, killing at 13 U.S. service members and scores of Afghans. Of the 13 American service members — 11 of them Marines — killed in the suicide bombing on Aug. 26, five were 20 years old, and seven more were in their early 20s. One was 31. Finally, On January 6, 2021, a mob of supporters of President Donald Trump attacked the United States Capitol in Washington, D.C. They sought to overturn his defeat in the 2020 presidential election by disrupting the joint session of Congress assembled to count electoral votes that would formalize then President-elect Joe Biden's victory.

Individuals we lost in 2021:

Hank Aaron (86), Michael Collins (90), Bob Dole (98), Olympia Dukakis (89), Lee Elder (87), Larry King (87), Rush Limbaugh (70), John Madden (85), Colin Powell (84), Harry Reid (82), Stephen Sondheim (91), Desmond Tutu (90), Cicely Tyson (96), Betty White (99).

Well it's finally here! The end of one nasty ass year! Congratulations to all of you for getting through it. Now as we are facing the New Year, it's time for New Year's resolutions! I've got mine already, and it is a simple one (with the unknowns ahead in 2022). My resolution is for making a hole-in-one in 2022. I have never had one, it is about time. Stay tuned.

MARKET YEAR - U.S. stocks saw a third consecutive year of big gains, with major indexes closing 2021 near record highs.

Even with the recent turbulence from the Omicron coronavirus variant, the S&P 500 saw a 27% advance for 2021 and has hit 70 highs. It is the third straight year of double-digit gains for the broad index, and the second in the midst of the Covid-19 pandemic. The Dow Jones Industrial Average and Nasdaq Composite have gained 19% and 21%, respectively, this year, helping send the major indexes to their best three-year performance since 1999.

Some traders note that warning signs are flashing: Inflation could turn companies’ and customers’ finances upside down. Many companies that have been market darlings are losing money. Big-name stocks continue to log giant one-day swings. However, individual traders and institutional investors are hungry to take bigger risks and willing to accept bouts of volatility.

The year kicked off with a mind-bending start: Day traders who poked around with stocks early in the pandemic plowed money into meme stocks such as GameStop Corp., disrupting the power dynamic by which professional investors are usually the market king. Money managers say that this year more than ever, they are closely tracking where individual investors park their cash and monitoring their trading activity for clues on the market’s moves.

Cryptocurrencies further entered the mainstream, helped by influencers including Elon Musk and the debut of the first bitcoin exchange-traded fund. Crypto prices soared, then spiraled lower, then soared again. The market for nonfungible tokens exploded.

Many investors, both institutional and individual, into options, a shift that can make the market vulnerable to bigger swings, some traders have said. Trading activity in options, which give traders the right to buy or sell stocks at a specific price by a stated date, hit the highest level in the industry’s history in data going back to 1973.

Initial public offerings and special-purpose acquisition companies, known as SPACs, broke record after record. SPACs as of last week had raised $162 billion in 2021, more than what they raised in the previous decade combined, according to Dealogic. Many of them are unprofitable; around 70% of companies going public through traditional IPOs have been losing money, a greater proportion than even during the tech bubble of the 1990s, according to Bank of America figures as of November.

The heavy speculation left some investors questioning if markets were in a giant bubble, though some of the excitement has started to fizzle. Near-zero interest rates and the central bank’s pandemic interventions have been a key support for stock markets for nearly two years now. The Federal Reserve signaled this month that it is prepared to raise rates next year and pare its bond-buying program at a quicker pace. When rates rise, investors have more options for where to park their money for a gain and can become less willing to take risks.

Investors also had to contend with one big factor that they mostly ignored for the past decade: inflation. U.S. inflation reached nearly a four-decade high last month, raising questions about how many price increases Americans can absorb. The emergence of the Omicron variant has whipsawed U.S. stocks since Thanksgiving.

Our economy was driven by the five key factors:

(1). COVID, (2).  Inflation, (3). Supply Chain¸ (4). Reply All emails, (5). Too many Six Sigma White Belt certifications.

 

DRIVING THE YEAR - Inflation, which is the rate of price increases over time, affects all of us on a personal level. We pay electric bills, go grocery shopping, decorate our houses, buy cars—and this year all of those things got more expensive.

Like, way more expensive. Thanks to a nefarious mix of soaring demand for goods and snarled supply chains, US consumer prices jumped the most in 39 years in November, and the 6.8% inflation rate marked the sixth straight month inflation grew by 5% or more. Producer prices, which can eventually trickle down to individuals, also increased at their fastest pace on record last month.

Of course, some inflation is good for the economy when wages keep up with rising prices (the Fed aims for a 2% inflation rate over time). But, so far in the pandemic, that hasn’t happened. While many Americans have gotten a raise in 2021, wage gains haven’t been sufficient to offset inflation, resulting in the erosion of purchasing power—especially for folks on a more or less fixed income.

Where do we go from here?

After months of claiming inflation was “transitory,” the Fed has dropped that term and adopted a more hawkish monetary policy to tamp down surging prices. The central bank is winding down its bond-buying stimulus program faster than originally planned, and also plans to hike interest rates three times in 2022.

In its inflation-fighting efforts, the Fed isn’t alone on the front lines. The Bank of England became the first major central bank to raise interest rates during the pandemic in order to combat the biggest annual jump in consumer prices in 10 years. Russia has raised rates seven times this year. Mexico, Chile, Costa Rica, Pakistan, and Hungary are among other countries which are tightening monetary policy to combat higher prices.

Looking ahead…as if economic policymakers needed another inflation curveball, Omicron has taken the mound. Central banks generally don’t expect the new variant to significantly dent economic growth, but they do think it may prolong inflation by exacerbating the supply–demand imbalance that fueled higher prices in the first place.

 

WAGES - A record number of states and cities will raise their minimum wages in 2022, with many exceeding $15.

Since the start of the pandemic, workers have been quitting in droves, citing low pay as a major culprit.

An analysis by the National Employment Law Project found 25 states and 56 municipalities will raise their minimum wages by the end of 2022.

In California and New York, as well as 47 cities and counties, the wage floor will meet or exceed $15 per hour by the end of 2022.

Reality check: 20 states haven't raised their minimum wages above the federal level, which has remained at $7.25 per hour since 2009.

2021’s MOST IMPORTANT COMPANY - Until recently, Pfizer was perhaps best known as the maker of Viagra. Then the pandemic happened, and the NYC-based pharma giant was taken a lot more seriously thanks to the Covid vaccine it produced in partnership with BioNTech.

That vaccine, which marshals cutting-edge mRNA technology, proved to be highly effective against Covid, saving countless lives and paving the way for a rapid global economic recovery.

Against the Omicron variant, however, a two-shot regiment of Pfizer’s vaccine offers only reduced protection. Adding a third booster shot restores effectiveness, according to a study from Pfizer and BioNTech.

But more shots = more sales, and Pfizer’s had plenty of those. The company expects to bring in $36 billion in revenue from its vaccine this year, which would put it among the top

selling drugs of all time. Thanks to its effectiveness, negligible side effects, and its ability to be produced in mass quantities, Pfizer’s vaccine has beaten out Moderna’s, J&J’s, AstraZeneca’s, and others as the “world’s preferred shot.”.

As Pfizer’s profile has grown, so has the influence of CEO Albert Bourla. During the pandemic, the Greek-born veterinarian and longtime company exec has counseled leaders across the globe, even becoming a “good friend” of the US president, as Joe Biden asserted. Former Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu called Bourla 30 times in the run-up to the country’s election, according to the FT.

Pfizer has plenty of critics, though, who say it has not done nearly enough to send vaccines to lower-income countries, where immunization rates are far lower than in higher-income nations. Leaders in Africa have accused the company of playing “hardball” and making “unreasonable demands” in terms of the legal concessions it required of governments there during contract negotiations.

Pfizer claims vaccine inequity isn’t its fault: “The low- and middle-income countries will be behind in deliveries because they didn’t place their orders,” Bourla said on a November earnings call.

Looking ahead…Pfizer’s top-line revenue could be astonishing next year. While it projects another $29 billion in annual sales from its vaccine, it has also developed a Covid antiviral pill, Paxlovid, which was authorized by the FDA this month. That drug could bring in an estimated $17 billion in revenue in 2022.

Runner up: SpaceX. Elon Musk’s company is the clear leader in the fast-growing private space industry, and it had itself an impressive 2021. It beat out Blue Origin for a lunar lander contract with NASA, launched the first-ever mission of all amateur astronauts, and, since May 2019 it has sent nearly 2,000 satellites into low-Earth orbit to build out its Starlink broadband internet system.

Runner up: Amazon. Founder Jeff Bezos may have stepped down as CEO over the summer, but under new CEO Andy Jassy the company is continuing to expand its reach into areas like advertising, media rights, and logistics. It still has a strained relationship with its warehouse and delivery workers (remember the pee bottles?)—a high-profile union vote at an Alabama facility was defeated in April, but workers there will get a chance at another vote after the National Labor Relations Board found that the company improperly tampered with the first election.

 

2021 INSPIRATION - Simone Biles, the GOAT women’s gymnast, was expected to leave the Tokyo Olympics with a carry-on full of gold medals. Instead, she took a step back to take care of herself.

It all started during the team final. After a rough vault routine, the 4-time Olympic gold medalist left the floor, stunning the American fans watching from home early that morning. Her teammate Jordan Chiles filled in on the uneven bars and helped team USA snag the silver medal.

Biles ultimately dropped out of the all-around final as well as the floor, uneven bars, and vault finals to prioritize her well-being. Biles later posted on Instagram that her “mind & body are simply not in sync,” a phenomenon that could lead to injury in highly technical and dangerous sports like gymnastics.

She did finish her Tokyo campaign with a bronze medal in the balance beam final, securing a tie with Shannon Miller as the most decorated American in the history of Olympic gymnastics.

“I truly do feel like I have the weight of the world on my shoulders at times,” Biles wrote on Instagram after the Olympic prelims.

Biles’s focus on mental health at the Olympics is part of a larger trend this year of athletes opening up about the emotional toll of high-level competition. In a press conference, Biles told reporters she felt inspired to prioritize her health over competing after watching Naomi Osaka withdraw from the French Open for mental health reasons.

Runner up: NASA’s Perseverance rover lands on Mars. There’s just something about a little guy making it to space. Around 4pm ET on February 18, NASA’s most sophisticated rover to date, Perseverance, landed in the giant crater Jezero on Mars. The Rover will spend one full Mars year abroad—687 Earth days or ~4,809 dog days if that is more helpful—searching for signs of ancient life on the planet.

 

2021 JACK ASS OF THE YEAR – Two words: The Thing.

2021 was remembered most vividly by its first month, when a sitting President and his allies attempted a coup by trying to overturn an election. Most notable was the January 6 insurrection of the U.S. Capital.

 

NCAA (NO CLUE AT ALL) - The NCAA board of governors on December 16 unanimously agreed to accept the final recommendations from its constitution committee, moving the organization another step closer to a new constitution to govern college sports.

One of the changes is clarifying language that ensures "to the greatest extent possible" that any imposed penalties do not punish programs or athletes who were not involved or implicated in the infractions -- a modification to the typically lengthy investigative process that sometimes isn't resolved until after the individuals who committed the violations have moved on.

Another change from the second draft of the constitution, which was shared Dec. 7, requires each school to make its name, image and likeness policies publicly available.

The new constitution continues to prohibit pay-for-play but states that athletes "may receive educational and other benefits in accordance with guidelines established by their NCAA division."

The entire NCAA membership will vote Jan. 20 at the 2022 NCAA Convention. If the constitution is formally adopted, as expected, each of the NCAA's three divisions will be tasked with ensuring that its rules fit the new framework. The new constitution would be effective Aug. 1.

The proposed constitution maintains existing revenue allocations and championship opportunities for each division, locking in 4.37% to Division II and 3.18% to Division III -- percentages that have been in place since January 1996. Each league has the oversight of its own budget, expenditures and distribution to its members.

The final version of the constitution also emphasizes athletes' physical and mental well-being, along with prioritizing diversity, inclusion and gender equity.

The push for sweeping change to the NCAA's governance comes after a tumultuous summer in which the organization suffered significant legal and political losses. In June, the Supreme Court of the United States unanimously affirmed a ruling that allowed for an incremental increase in how college athletes could be compensated. In July, a flurry of state laws made it illegal for schools and the NCAA to punish college athletes for making money by selling the rights to their name, image and likeness.

Many throughout college athletics had said they hoped the new constitution would simplify what they considered a complex and outdated rulebook by transferring authority from the NCAA's national offices to the conferences and their schools. The previous 43-page document has been boiled down to 20 and gives each of the three divisions more freedom to govern themselves.

BIRTHDAYS THIS WEEK – Birthday wishes and thoughts this week to Karla Bonoff (70), Sandy Koufax (86), Maggie Smith (87), Denzel Washington (67).

CHRONICLES OF HIGHER EDUCATION – Hurricanes are blowing over American universities — blustery winds of ideological disagreement, political distrust, and lots of anger over racial injustice and the marginalization of subordinated groups, all fueled and fed by social media. Under such intense pressure, senior administrators are making mistakes.

One such storm touched down recently at Yale Law School. Trent Colbert, a second-year law student, sent an invitation to classmates announcing a “trap house” party cosponsored by the Native American Law Students Association and the Federalist Society to celebrate Constitution Day. Some found the email — with its use of the phrase “trap house,” its mention that Popeyes’ chicken would be served, and its reference to the conservative Federalist Society — racist and offensive. Students complained, and administrators responded by privately pressuring Colbert to apologize and publicly condemning his email as racist. The administrators were in turn condemned for their response — their conduct labeled cowardly, incompetent, deplorable.

Administrators are caught in powerful crosswinds that make it likely that even the best ones — perhaps especially the best ones — will make bad decisions.

Yale is not unique. Storms have touched down in recent years at the University of Southern California’s Marshall School of Business, Georgetown Law, University of Illinois at Chicago School of Law, and the University of Michigan at Ann Arbor, to name just a few. The fact patterns are similar. Something happens — in class, on a final exam, or outside of class — that students find racist or otherwise offensive. Students protest — they demand statements of condemnation, swift action and public accountability. Administrators respond — they condemn, they punish, they disavow — and they do so quickly. Administrators are then pilloried — for overreach, for trampling academic freedom, for moving too quickly, for getting the facts wrong.

 

NHL CHRISTMAS BREAK – Rink Rats Power Rankings:

1.            Tampa Bay Lightning (21-7-4)

2.            Carolina Hurricanes (22-7-1)

3.            Florida Panthers (20-7-4)

4.            Toronto Maple Leafs (20-8-2)

5.            Vegas Golden Knights (21-12-0)

 

 

THE SWAMI’S WEEKEND PICKS –

NFL Football Pick of the Week – Sunday 1/2, 4:25 PM (EDT), Fox: Arizona Cardinals (10-5) vs. Dallas Cowboys (11-4). Both teams will make the playoffs and go no further.  Cowboys win 24 - 14.

2021 Season to Date (51-36)

Goodbye 2021. Don’t let the door hit you in the Covid!

Next Blog: 2022 What next???

Until January 10, 2022 Adios.

Claremont, California

December 31, 2021

#XII-6-443

 

3,141  words, eight-minute read

 

CARTOON OF THE WEEKEND –

 

 

RINK RATS POLL – 2021 …

___ forget it.

___ a great year.

___ let’s move on.

___ a horror show.

 

QUOTE OF THE MONTH – “We need to stop just pulling people out of the river. We need to go upstream and find out why they’re falling in..” – Desmond Tutu

Rink Rats is a blog of weekly observations, predictions and commentary. We welcome your comments and questions. Also participate in our monthly poll. Rink Rats is now viewed in Europe, Canada, South America and the United States.

Posted at Rink Rats The Blog: First Published – May 3, 2010

Our Eleventh Year.

www.rhasserinkrats.blogspot.com

Ho Ho Ouch

 

Christmas / Weekend Edition

A belated Hanukkah Sameach, Merry Christmas, to all our readers and supporters.

We close out another year of COVID, economic ups and downs, and debatable leadership in government, business, and education. More on this in next weeks’ year end “Rats” blog.

This week let us center on being with loved ones, stream one more film or TV series, enjoy the outdoors, stay healthy, and wear that mask when required.

2022, like 2021, will again be filled with challenges, good days and bad days. Through it all be positive, smile, tell the truth, have faith, and have a cocktail now and then.

 

THIS COST HOW MUCH! - U.S. inflation reached a nearly four-decade high in November, as strong consumer demand collided with pandemic-related supply constraints.

The Labor Department said Friday the consumer-price index—which measures what consumers pay for goods and services—rose 6.8% in November from the same month a year ago. That was the fastest pace since 1982 and the sixth straight month in which inflation topped 5%.

The so-called core price index, which excludes the often-volatile categories of food and energy, climbed 4.9% in November from a year earlier. That was a sharper increase than October’s 4.6% rise, and the highest rate since 1991.

The November prices trend came before the emergence of the Omicron variant of Covid-19, which poses a new threat from a pandemic that is well into its second year.

On a monthly basis, the CPI increased a seasonally adjusted 0.8% in November from the prior month, about the same as October’s 0.9% increase.

Prices for vehicles, rent, furniture and airline fares rose last month. Some energy prices showed signs of easing, but gasoline rose by 6.1% for the second straight month. Prices for recreation and communication declined in November.

The current bout of inflation has several identified causes, many of them linked to the pandemic. For one, consumers are flush with savings from government stimulus programs and depressed services spending from restrictions on businesses, leading them to open the spigot for goods that are in scarce supply.

There also are fewer workers in the labor market, encouraging those who are working to demand raises and crimping overall productivity. These factors and many others are driving up costs.

Energy prices, including gasoline, have gone up as oil-and-gas production lags behind a return of consumer demand coming out of the pandemic. This return of demand has also led to supply-chain disruptions. Truck drivers, seaport slots and warehouse spaces are all in short supply, leading to costly delays and rising shipping rates for goods.

These added costs, at every step from production to sale, lead to price increases for consumers, with some companies seizing on a rare opportunity to raise prices.

How is Inflation measured? There are different ways of measuring inflation, even among government agencies. The shorthand version comes from the already mentioned CPI, measured by the Labor Department. It is calculated using a survey of households and only covers spending on goods and services. It excludes expenditures that aren’t paid for directly, such as medical care paid for by a person’s health insurance. Its limited set of expenditures can make CPI more volatile.

The personal-consumption-expenditures price index, or PCE, takes into account a broader range of expenditures—and feedback from businesses—to provide a more expansive picture of price changes. This inflation reading is the Fed’s preferred measurement. The Commerce Department releases its PCE estimate monthly as part of its income and spending report.

What goods or services are driving the increase in prices?

Prices are going up throughout the economy, but not uniformly. Gasoline prices in October went up nearly 50% from the same month a year ago, putting them at levels last seen in 2014. Grocery prices climbed 5.4%, with pork prices up 14.1% from a year ago, the biggest increase since 1990.

Prices for new vehicles jumped 9.8% in October, the largest rise since 1975, while prices for furniture and bedding leapt by the most since 1951. Prices for tires and sports equipment rose by the most since the early 1980s. Not every single good is affected by inflation: Prices fell for airline fares and alcohol last month.

In this tight labor market, workers are getting raises. But in real-dollar terms, their money isn’t going as far as it used to. Average hourly earnings went up in October by 0.4% from the month before, but inflation went up by 0.9% over the same period, resulting in a 0.5% decline in real wage growth. On an annualized basis, average hourly wages are up 4.9%, less than the 6.2% rise in inflation.

Another factor affecting inflation is expectations about rising prices. If businesses believe there are widespread consumer expectations that prices are going up across the board, they may feel more inclined to raise their prices without fear that customers won’t spend or decide to shop at a competitor. This can also lead employees to ask for higher wages from employers because their cost of living has gone up, which can lead to an inflationary cycle of wage-price increases.

Housing prices have risen during the pandemic because of a combination of low mortgage-interest rates, strong demand and supply crunches for building materials and construction workers. Mortgage rates have stayed low as the Fed has kept interest rates near zero as part of its effort to support the economy. Economists expect mortgage rates to rise some as the Fed increases interest rates, likely starting that process by the middle of next year. Still, interest cost for purchasing a house is expected to remain low for the foreseeable future, in part because the Fed isn’t expected to raise interest rates by a lot.

In the short term, inflation can boost the stock market. Companies may report higher profits based on inflationary price increases. Nearly two out of three of the biggest U.S. publicly traded companies have reported fatter profit margins so far this year than they did over the same stretch of 2019, before the Covid-19 outbreak, data from FactSet show.

But that honeymoon only ends well if inflation is transitory, or temporary. Entrenched inflation would lead to the Fed raising interest rates more, which in turn raises borrowing costs and crimps growth to tame price pressures. Many investors expect a market correction if there are continued reports of high inflation over the next several months, because that could cause the Fed to act more aggressively.

The original Consumer Price Index

Began publication of separate indexes for 32 cities (1919): Collected prices in central cities periodically

Developed weights reflecting the relative importance of goods and services purchased by consumers, from a study that BLS conducted in 1917–1919 of family expenditures in 92 industrial centers

Collected prices for major groups: Food, clothing, rent, fuels, house furnishings, and miscellaneous

Began regular publication of a national index, the U.S. city average, in 1921: Based index on an un-weighted average of the city indexes.

 

HELP WANTED – Notice how many help wanted signs are in store fronts these days.

A strong economic recovery and persistent labor shortage pushed jobless claims to their lowest level in more than half a century last week, just 18 months after the pandemic prompted six million workers to file for unemployment in one week.

First-time claims for unemployment benefits, a proxy for layoffs, fell to 184,000 in the week ended Dec. 4, the lowest level since September 1969, the Labor Department said Thursday. The previous pre-pandemic low of 194,000 was recorded late last month.

Unemployment claims have been steadily falling all year as the labor market has tightened amid a shortage of available workers. While the Omicron variant of Covid-19 represents another threat from the pandemic, economists expect labor market conditions to remain tight.

Claims have now fallen below where they were in the year before the pandemic, when they averaged 218,000.

The steady decline in filings is an indication that employers are reluctant to lay off workers as jobs are plentiful, consumer demand is high and the pool of prospective workers remains lower than before the pandemic.

The labor market is unusually tight, with workers in high demand and jobs going unfilled. In October, there were two unemployed workers for every three job openings.

The unemployment rate last month fell to 4.2% from 4.6% in October, the Labor Department said last week, but hiring slowed. While almost 600,000 joined the workforce, there are still 2.4 million fewer people in the labor force than before the pandemic hit.

 

BABY BUMMER – U.S. population growth hit a record low this year, crawling up 0.1% in the 12 months ending July 1, per the Census Bureau. The country added just 393,000 people on net, or about one Cleveland’s worth. It’s the first time since 1937 that the US population grew by less than 1 million people.

This is an extreme instance of what has been a long-running trend. For years, U.S. population growth has been slowing due to 1) a declining birth rate as would-be parents delay or put off having babies 2) lower immigration levels to the US and 3) higher mortality rates due to an aging population.

What made last year so “extreme,” of course, is the Covid pandemic, which has only amplified the three headwinds just described.

The US population’s anemic growth will result in fewer Americans to fill jobs and to pay the taxes that keep programs like Social Security financially healthy. Countries like Japan, where the population has been shrinking since 2007, have already been forced to confront these issues

SHOUT OUT – Rink Rats received a lovely note from reader Al Karnas (St. Lawrence ’76). Al (aka Frank Piskor) is doing well, he has had a tough couple of years losing his wife Susan. But he reports his son Adam is winning the tech wars here in California with Google and daughter Sophie is a Captain sailing boats around the world.

SHOUT OUT PART DEUX – A Happy holidays wish to our “Zoom SLU boys”. One of the best things to come out of the pandemic was to meet often via Zoom with classmates and “old” friends. Forty-five years of memories, bad jokes, good and bad times, still we are here enjoying life and each other.

SHOUT OUT PART TROIS - Valeria Maria Ayos Bossa is a Colombian model, presenter, beauty queen and environmental activist. Her father is Spanish while her mother is of Trinidadian descent.

She received a diploma in marketing and strategy from the Executive Management Program at the University of La Verne in La Verne, Los Angeles County, California.

She was 27 years old when she was crowned Miss Universe Colombia 2021. On December 12, 2021, she represented Colombia at Miss Universe 2021 and competed against 79 other candidates in Eilat, Israel. She finished in the Top 5.

 

SNAP, CRACKLE, POP - One of 2021’s longest-running strikes came to an end on Tuesday, when 1,400 union workers at Kellogg factories in Michigan, Nebraska, Pennsylvania, and Tennessee approved a new 5-year contract.

Workers at the four plants walked off the job 11 weeks ago, after their existing contract expired without a new one in place.

The backstory: Amid soaring pandemic demand for Kellogg’s products, workers said, they regularly logged 72- to 84-hour weeks (a claim Kellogg has disputed). Due to Kellogg’s two-tiered benefits system, workers hired after 2015 typically earned lower wages than more veteran employees for similar work.

The collective bargaining agreement reached Tuesday ended the two-tiered system and also includes:

A pledge of no plant closings through fall 2026

A “clear path to regular full-time employment”

Across-the-board wage increases and cost-of-living adjustments

The deal follows a bitter battle between striking workers and Kellogg management that included a Dec. 8 threat by the company to permanently replace all 1,400 workers with new employees. In response, users in the Antiwork subreddit mass-applied to the open positions, overwhelming the application portal. And President Biden was “deeply troubled” by the plan to replace the workers.

 

BIRTHDAYS THIS WEEK – Birthday wishes and thoughts this week to Chris Evert (67), Jane Fonda (84), Nancy Newman …famous photographer, Rick Nielson (73), Jan Stephenson (70), Dick Wolf (75).

 

GOOD READ -To our readers missing Claremont, here is a fun piece:

https://www.latimes.com/travel/story/2021-03-17/claremont-driving-tour-craftsman-victorian-architecture

 

 

COVID IN SPORTS - Crazy to think that one month ago none of us had ever heard of Omicron. Now, it's the most dominant Covid strain in the US, accounting for 73% of all infections last week, the CDC said yesterday.

Throughout the pandemic, sports have often been at the forefront of America's response. That remains true as 2022 approaches — though health experts are split on how leagues are handling Omicron's spread.

The NFL responded to a recent surge in cases by limiting, rather than expanding, testing protocols. Moving forward, fully vaccinated players will only be tested if they show symptoms.

The cynical view: Tests mean cases, cases mean postponements, and postponements are bad for the bottom line. So, the league opted for less testing.

Another way to look at it: The NFL's approach hints at how most of society will come to view the pandemic and the risks facing vaccinated people, particularly if the early data is right and Omicron causes less severe disease.

What they're saying: While the NBA has different rules than the NFL, it has sent a similar message with its handling of the Omicron wave, which has seen 100 players enter protocols this month.

"This virus will not be eradicated, and we're going to have to learn to live with it," NBA commissioner Adam Silver told ESPN on Tuesday, adding that there are "no plans" to pause the season.

In fact, with Omicron constituting 90% of cases, Silver said the league is considering shortening the number of days a player can be out in protocols before returning to the court.

Silver said he hopes the NBA — which is 97% vaccinated and 65% boosted — can show the rest of the world a way forward "as this virus becomes part of our lives."

The other side: The NFL may be fine knowing that vaccinated players with asymptomatic cases are walking the halls of team facilities and playing in games. But its protocols ignore the reality that those players go out into the world, where people are more at risk.

"There's going to be a time where we want the NFL to demonstrate ... that we can start taking a different road," epidemiologist Michael Mina told WashPost. "But I don't think, in the face of Omicron, that now is the time to do that."

Of note: The NHL has taken the most cautious approach, pausing its season two days earlier than planned, fifty season games have been cancelled. Teams will break for the holidays today and return on Sunday, with first games on Monday December 27.

The big picture: The Biden administration is weighing a potentially "stark shift in messaging" that would — much like the NFL and NBA — focus on living with the virus, rather than beating it, CNN reports.

"We're getting to the point now where ... it's about severity," Xavier Becerra, the secretary of the Department of Health and Human Services, told reporters last week. "It's not about cases."

"Sports leagues have made it as clear as possible that in an Omicron age, their future depends on making peace with the virus," writes NY Mag's Will Leitch. "That future looks increasingly like our own."

In its never-ending race to stay ahead of COVID, the Biden administration keeps falling behind.

Why it matters: The U.S. faces an overwhelming surge of cases driven by the Omicron variant less than six months after President Biden celebrated "Independence from COVID-⁠19," and experts say the administration could have done more to better prepare the country.

A common theme is that the Biden administration has been reactive (sound familiar), chasing the latest COVID crises rather than getting ahead of them.

There's widespread agreement that the administration should have made cheap, at-home rapid tests widely available months ago.

The reality: Only 30% of vaccinated Americans have received a booster shot after a messy rollout ... COVID tests are in short supply right when Americans need them for the holidays ... and hospitals are already stretched thin by Delta caseloads and worker burnout.

Most ominously, only 62% of Americans are fully vaccinated. And while most experts think that the high rates of lingering vaccination resistance aren't the administration's fault, they were foreseeable.

Here we are on the eve of Christmas with Omicron spreading, tests scarce even if you can afford them, and a large portion of vulnerable Americans who are not boosted or not vaccinated at all — all too late to matter for so many.

 

NFL WEEK 16 - Green Bay, the NFL's lone 11-win team, remains atop Rink Rats power rankings with three weeks left.

1.         Packers ((11-3)

2.         Chiefs (10-4)

3.         Buccaneers (10-4)

4.         Rams (10-4)

5.         Cowboys (10-4)

21 teams have between seven and 10 wins, so the gap between the Packers and the field is minuscule.

The big picture: 27 teams are still alive with three weeks left, tied for the most such teams since the playoffs expanded in 1990.

AFC playoff picture: 1. Chiefs (10-4); 2. Patriots (9-5); 3. Titans (9-5); 4. Bengals (8-6); 5. Colts (8-6); 6. Chargers (8-6); 7. Bills (8-6)

In the hunt: Ravens (8-6); Steelers (7-6-1); Raiders (7-7); Dolphins (7-7); Browns (7-7); Broncos (7-7)

NFC playoff picture: 1. Packers (11-3); 2. Cowboys (10-4); 3. Buccaneers (10-4); 4. Cardinals (10-4); 5. Rams (10-4); 6. 49ers (8-6); 7. Vikings (7-7)

In the hunt: Eagles (7-7); Saints (7-7); Washington (6-8); Falcons (6-8); Panthers (5-9); Seahawks (5-9); Giants (4-10)

📆 Coming up: The Chiefs, Buccaneers, Titans and Cowboys can all clinch their division this week.

Thursday: 49ers (-3.5) at Titans

Saturday: Browns at Packers (-7); Colts at Cardinals (-1)

Sunday’s best: Ravens at Bengals (-2.5); Rams (-3) at Vikings; Bills at Patriots (-2.5); Steelers at Chiefs (-8.5)

Sunday night: Washington at Dallas (-10.5)

Monday night: Dolphins at Saints (-3)

 

NHL 不 Bù -  NHL players won't participate in the Beijing Olympics, marking two straight Winter Games without them after they played in five straight.

Question: Which countries won men's hockey gold in the five Olympics with NHL players (1998, 2002, 2006, 2010, 2014)?

Answer: Czech Republic (1998); Canada (2002, 2010, 2014); Sweden (2006)

MANNINGCAST - However, rumors of Manning’s true interest in NFL franchise ownership have long persisted. That interest appears to be mile-high, according to CBS Sports’s Jason La Canfora, who reported Sunday that new potential ownership groups for the Denver Broncos have been lining up and Manning “has already had discussions with several of the groups expected to be favorites to land the team.”

Furthermore, plans for Pat Bowlen’s heirs to sell the franchise appear to be in motion, and, barring some unforeseen circumstances, a new ownership group “would be fully on board by the October ownership meetings next year.”

That means, assuming Manning aligns himself with the winning ownership group, he would be a part-owner and potentially an executive within the Broncos organization by the time the 2022 NFL season rolled around. And that almost certainly means he would not be able to continue the ManningCast broadcast for ESPN2.

Logistically, it just wouldn’t make sense. It would be extremely hard to be an executive for an NFL franchise and then split those duties with preparing to broadcast games about other teams each week. It’s true that Eli is employed by the New York Giants and still works on the broadcast, but his role is way different from that of a team owner and potential executive.

 

THE SWAMI’S WEEKEND PICKS –

NFL Football Pick of the Week – Sunday 12/26, 4:25 PM (EDT), CBS: Pittsburgh Steelers (7-6-1) vs. Kansas City Chiefs (10-4-0). Big Ben’s last chance at glory, Chiefs can cinch AFC best record. Chiefs win 24 - 17.

College Football Pick of the Week – Monday 12/27, 11:00 AM (EDT)), Quick Lane Bowl, Ford Field, Detroit Michigan:  Nevada Wolfpack (8-4) vs. Western Michigan Broncos (7-5). The wolfpack from Reno will prevail over the Broncos (famous alumni Tim “The Tool Man” Allen, 40 – 28.

2021 Season to Date (49-36)

 

Next Blog: 2021 Review

Until December 29, 2021 Adios.

Claremont, California

December 22, 2021

#XII-5-442

 

3,495  words, ten-minute read

 

CARTOON OF THE WEEKEND – The Holidays

 

 

RINK RATS POLL – How much are you spending on holiday gifts this season?

___ $0 Bah Humbug

___ $0 - $100

___ $100 - $500

___ $500 - $1,000

___ $1,000+ (Don’t forget me!)

 

QUOTE OF THE MONTH – “Right is right even if no one is doing it. Wrong is wrong even if everyone is doing it.” – Saint Augustine

 

 

Rink Rats is a blog of weekly observations, predictions and commentary. We welcome your comments and questions. Also participate in our monthly poll. Rink Rats is now viewed in Europe, Canada, South America and the United States.

Posted at Rink Rats The Blog: First Published – May 3, 2010

Our Eleventh Year.

www.rhasserinkrats.blogspot.com

 

Turkey Trot

 

Thanksgiving / Weekend Edition

It has been a while Rink Rats readers, almost two months, why so long you ask? Two words: writers block. It happens.

So, we move on, I have had my two Covid shots, a flu shot, my shingles shots, my Covid booster shot, so I am considered an Eternal.

The best time of the year is upon us, sports, eating, drinking, no classes, no politics (sort of).

To our Canadian readers who celebrated their Thanksgiving on October 11, please indulge me in acknowledging the American Thanksgiving weekend.

More specifically, the Turkey Trot. The time-honored celebration of running in freezing weather. The first Turkey Trot was in Buffalo, New York in 1896. Six participants ran eight kilometers (almost five miles). These days we run 5k or 10k or in my case a 0k.

It’s a classic Thanksgiving tradition: Go around the table and say what you’re grateful for. That’s not exactly a common practice on corporate earnings calls, we thought we’d highlight some of the things that business leaders said they were grateful for this month during presentations to analysts.

Most often, executives say they are thankful for investors and employees, the corporate equivalent of “friends and family” around the table. But some are grateful for other things, and if you can’t come up with something tomorrow when it’s your turn to express thanks, try one of these alternatives:

I, an executive officer of this company, am thankful …

“for the mortgage boom.” (Chris Cartwright of TransUnion)

“to the F.D.A.” (Stephen Hoge of Moderna)

“that our customers continue to wait for our products.” (Brittany Bagley of Sonos)

“to operate in a large and growing market.” (Neil Blumenthal of Warby Parker)

“for your interest in our company.” (Alexandre Bompard of Carrefour)

Thanksgiving weekend recs: 1) This new book on the history of HBO 2) 24 hours with Squid Game’s HoYeon Jung 3) King Richard

THANKSGIVING TRAVEL - U.S. travel has nearly rebounded from the pandemic, but a global return could take years.

Pumpkin pie in the sky... The TSA is prepping for what it expects to be the busiest travel day of the year (FYI: this Sunday). Just a year ago, the vaccine rollout hadn't even begun in the US. Now, 80% of Americans over age 12 have been vaccinated thanks to early vax access, and 18% of adults have received a booster. Last Friday, the FDA and CDC cleared Pfizer and Moderna boosters for all adults, making them widely available in time for the holidays.

Bags packed; potatoes mashed... The vax rollout has benefited travel companies, as Americans make up for lost vacays. US travelers are splurging 46% more on trips this year compared to pre-pandemic.

By air... Domestic air travel has almost completely recovered from its pandemic plunge, and Thanksgiving flyers are expected to hit pre-corona levels. Delta and American have returned to profitability. But they still expect revenue to be down by about 20% from pre-pandemic to end the year.

By road... T-giving trips are coming up for over 48M Americans. Too bad car-rental prices are up 75% from 2019. Not bad for companies like Hertz, whose sales soared 62% last quarter from the start of this year. With US gas prices at seven-year highs, oil giants like Exxon and Chevron could also benefit from holiday mileage.

By stay... Only about 22% of Americans plan to stay in hotels this season. Room prices have jumped as demand recovers, but sales at Hilton and Marriott are still down from pre-pandemic. Marriott’s international bookings plunged a whopping 40% from 2019, as overseas travel continues to lag US leisure. On the flip side, Airbnb just had its best quarter ever, as travelers embraced longer-term stays in rural cabins and yurts.

PSYCHOLOGY 101 - Reset your alarm: Waking up just an hour earlier than usual could reduce your risk of depression by 23%, according to a new study.⁠

And each hour earlier that you wake up, the better the benefit, according to the study. Past research has shown that there’s a link between chronotype, or a person’s physiologic preference for mornings or nights, and mood. Night owls, for example, are two times as likely to develop depression compared to morning people.⁠

COVID SURGE? - The seasonal pulse of this pandemic has public health officials bracing for a spike in cases and hospitalizations. Colder weather and holiday gatherings are poised to bring more people together inside, mingling households and broadening people’s exposure to unvaccinated (or at least un-boosted) loved ones. We’ve been here before. Elected officials and health officers are working to avoid a repeat.

The number of U.S. Covid-19 deaths recorded in 2021 has surpassed the toll in 2020, according to federal data and Johns Hopkins University, demonstrating the virus’s persistent menace.

The total number of reported deaths linked to the disease topped 770,800 on November 20, Johns Hopkins data show. This puts the pandemic-long total at more than twice the 385,343 Covid-19 deaths recorded last year, according to the most recent death-certificate data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

The spread of the highly contagious Delta variant and low vaccination rates in some communities were important factors, infectious-disease experts said. The milestone comes as Covid-19 cases and hospitalizations move higher again in places such as New England and the upper Midwest, with the seven-day average for new cases recently closer to 90,000 a day after it neared 70,000 last month.

Covid-19 has proven to be an enduring threat even in some of the most vaccinated places, many of which are confronting outbreaks again now, as the world prepares to live with and manage the disease for the long term. In Europe, parts of Austria, Germany and the Netherlands have imposed new restrictions in recent days after Covid-19 cases rose and hospitals came under strain.

 

POTUS - President Joe Biden will be spending his 45th Thanksgiving on Nantucket this year — a tradition broken only by the pandemic and the death of his son Beau Biden.

The family has been spending Thanksgiving there since 1975, when Biden was a first-term senator and a single dad to two boys. It was there, Biden wrote in the first chapter of his 2017 memoir “Promise Me, Dad,” that he and Jill Jacobs, soon to be Jill Biden, “started to talk seriously about a future together.”

It’s very clear that Biden loves the tradition, which he described as “splendid and enforced isolation” (probably a lot less true now that a Secret Service detail, comms staffers, and nosy reporters have joined them on the island). It’s also where Biden said Beau in November 2014 urged him to run for president.

With its quaint New England charm, pristine beaches, and Hallmark-like settings, the small island off of Cape Cod has a reputation as a ritzy getaway.

MARKET WEEK - The number of Americans seeking unemployment benefits fell to a historic low this week. Jobless claims dropped by 71,000 to 199,000, the lowest since mid-November 1969. But seasonal adjustments around the Thanksgiving holiday contributed significantly to the bigger-than-expected drop. Unadjusted, claims actually ticked up by more than 18,000 to nearly 259,000. The four-week average of claims, which smooths out weekly ups and downs, also dropped — by 21,000 to just over 252,000, the lowest since mid-March 2020, when the pandemic slammed the economy.

Even while these numbers are good, don’t expect them to immediately change Americans’ negative perceptions of the economy. There’s still a major disconnect between these sorts of positive statistics and how everyday voters feel about their own finances. At the moment, it all comes back to fears about inflation — and growing concerns that Democrats aren’t doing enough to address it.

For 35 years, the discount chain Dollar Tree committed to selling almost everything for $1. Time has come to pass the buck: Prices for most items will increase to $1.25.

TARGET BREAKS FOR TURKEY - Target employees can finally spend their Thanksgiving like the rest of us: having a meltdown over forgetting to brine the turkey. The “come on, you need more travel mugs” retailer said yesterday that it will permanently shift to closing its doors on Thanksgiving, a change it made temporarily last year to limit crowds during the pandemic.

Some background: In the last 20 years, large retail chains started merging Black Friday into Thanksgiving to compete with online retailers like Amazon. But last year, Covid forced stores to rethink inviting hordes of people to climb over each other for a PS5.

Other large retailers like Macy’s, Kohl’s, and Walmart will also close for Thanksgiving this year, but haven’t decided if they’ll go full “spirit of the holiday season” and make it permanent, like Target has.

Big picture: Just because stores are closed on Thanksgiving doesn't mean people won't shop. For the past two years the holiday was the third-largest online shopping day on the calendar, behind Cyber Monday and Black Friday.

TOP FIVE THANKSGIVING MOVIES –

•          “Planes, Trains and Automobiles” (1987)

•          “A Charlie Brown Thanksgiving” (1973)

•          “The Big Chill” (1983)

•          “Home for the Holidays” (1995)

•          “What’s Cooking” (2000)

BIRTHDAYS THIS WEEK – Birthday wishes and thoughts this week to Traci Attman, Jamie Lee Curtis (63), Billie Jean King (78), Jack Meek …we hope enjoying retirement, Sarah Prosenko … an unsung hero of the University of La Verne, Senator Chuck Schumer (71).

 

O CANNABIS - If you live in Canada, love weed, and hate lines, then boy-oh-boy do we have the story for you. Uber is partnering with a Canadian cannabis retailer to allow customers in Ontario to order cannabis products through Uber Eats.

You can’t order special gummies as a side with your chicken parm just yet, though: It’s pickup only for now, with orders ready to be retrieved within the hour they’re placed in the Uber Eats app. Toronto-based Tokyo Smoke, which operates more than 50 dispensaries in Ontario, is handling the sales.

The move marks Uber’s first entry into the marijuana business. In October, the company closed its acquisition of alcohol delivery app Drizly for $1.1 billion, though Drizly’s cannabis delivery service, Lantern, wasn’t part of the deal.

In the States when? Rest assured; Uber wants to eventually send you a vape with that breakfast burrito. In April, CEO Dara Khosrowshahi said “when the road is clear” the company will absolutely look into cannabis delivery in the US. Blocking the road, of course, are rules prohibiting the purchase of federally illegal products with a credit card and the fact that only 18 states currently allow for recreational cannabis use.

 

ROLLING STONES SET LIST DETROIT CONCERT NOVEMBER 15 –

"Street Fighting Man"

"You Got Me Rocking"

"19th Nervous Breakdown"

"Tumbling Dice"

"Ain't Too Proud to Beg"

"Wild Horses"

"You Can't Always Get What You Want"

"Living in a Ghost Town"

"Start Me Up"

"Honky Tonk Women"

"Connection"

"Before They Make Me Run"

"Miss You"

"Midnight Rambler"

"Paint It Black"

"Sympathy for the Devil"

"Jumpin' Jack Flash"

Encore:

"Gimme Shelter"

"(I Can't Get No) Satisfaction"

 

THE SWAMI’S WEEKEND PICKS –

NFL Football Pick of the Week – Thursday 11/25, 9:30 AM (PDT), Fox: Chicago Bears (3-7-0) vs. Detroit Lions (0-9-1). Two words: “Who cares!” Lions! 24 - 20.

College Football Pick of the Week – Saturday 11/27, 12:00 PM (EDT)), #2 Ohio State Buckeyes (10-1) vs. #5 Michigan Wolverines (10-1). The Bo's and the Woody's get together Saturday for their annual Big Ten (14) grudge match and it will be the 24th time both are ranked in the top 10 of the AP poll at kickoff. That's seven more than the next closest rivalries (Notre dame-USC and Nebraska-Oklahoma). This could be a classic, but also a classic dud: Blue wins 38 – 35.

2021 Season to Date (48-35)

 

Next Blog: Jackass of the Month and College hockey

Until November 30, 2021 Adios.

Claremont, California

November 25, 2021

#XII-4-4401

 

2,016  words, six-minute read

 

CARTOON OF THE WEEKEND – Peanuts, Charles Schulz

 

 

RINK RATS POLL – Does a baked ham belong as part of the Thanksgiving dinner?

___ Yes

___ No

 

QUOTE OF THE MONTH – “Too much of anything is bad, but too much good whiskey is barely enough.” – Mark Twain

 

Rink Rats is a blog of weekly observations, predictions and commentary. We welcome your comments and questions. Also participate in our monthly poll. Rink Rats is now viewed in Europe, Canada, South America and the United States.

Posted at Rink Rats The Blog: First Published – May 3, 2010

Our Eleventh Year.

www.rhasserinkrats.blogspot.com