Friday, October 1, 2021

Fourth Quarter

 

Weekend Edition

Happy October and happy weekend, everyone!

We begin the final quarter of 2021.

The good, the bad and the ugly: We begin October with an economy burdened by supply chain problems, inflation rising, help wanted a popular post on business front doors, stock markets fluctuating, the usual at the U.S. Congress, budget and debt ceiling undecided, lack of compromise and leadership. The Thing still controls 50% of this country

Besides this we begin October with higher education across the country at a loss to figure out changing demographics of their students and throughout the country you have the have and have nots among colleges and universities. University haves had record endowment returns June 30, 2021, federal covid aid funds balance budgets, meanwhile student debt at an all-time high and staff wages are reduced.

The Detroit Lions are 0-3, the best team in baseball is not Los Angeles but San Francisco. The National Hockey League season begins with new television partners (ESPN and TNT), and Clemson and Ohio State have already lost a football game.

An overwhelming majority of Americans who have died in recent months, a period in which the U.S. has offered broad access to shots, were unvaccinated. The latest deaths were concentrated in the South, and there were more young victims than at any other point in the pandemic. Every age group under 55 saw its highest death toll of the pandemic this August.

The new and alarming surge of deaths this summer, when the Delta variant was spreading, means that the coronavirus pandemic has become the deadliest in U.S. history, overtaking the toll from the influenza pandemic of 1918 and 1919, which killed about 675,000 people.

The deaths that followed the wide availability of vaccines, one expert said, were “absolutely needless.”

US coronavirus deaths by month

Feb 2020: 1

Mar: 3,767

Apr: 58,960

May: 42,099

June: 23,416

July: 26,164

Aug: 30,234

Sept: 23,341

Oct: 23,691

Nov: 37,172

Dec: 77,124

 

Jan 2021: 96,377

Feb: 72,880

Mar: 39,393

Apr: 25,413

May: 18,357

June: 9,775

July: 8,541

Aug: 27,194

Sept: 58,062

 

Vaccination rates: 9/15/21

France: 72 percent

Canada: 68.7 percent

Italy: 66.3 percent

UK: 65.9 percent

Germany: 62.2 percent

America: 53.9 percent

 

Extreme Weather - From record-shattering temps in Oregon to Hurricane Ida in the East, weather disasters affected nearly 1 in 3 Americans this summer. These weather events, plus a new UN report that deemed climate change a “code red for humanity,” sparked more conversation around climate mitigation and adaptation efforts.

Will it lead to action? Democrats cited failures of our current system (like the NYC subway flooding) as justification for the bipartisan $1.2 trillion infrastructure bill they’re hoping to pass this week.

Supply Chain Madness - Turns out, the Ever Given being stuck in the Suez Canal was the least of our supply chain worries this year. Factory closures in Asia due to Covid-19 have prolonged bottlenecks, driving inflation higher and delaying your new couch from arriving.

Some stats that illustrate the brokenness of the global supply chain:

The chip shortage will cost $210 billion this year, according to a new estimate.

Nike said 80% of its shoe factories in Vietnam are closed.

This month, the line of container ships waiting to enter Los Angeles’s and Long Beach’s neighboring ports hit an all-time high of 65 vessels.

 

More Stats - There will be more weddings in the US in 2022 than in any year since 1984, according to market research firm The Wedding Report. It estimates that 2.5 million weddings will take place next year, compared to an average of 2.1 million weddings/year pre-pandemic and 1.2 million weddings in 2020.

Average pay at US supermarkets and restaurants hit $15/hour for the first time ever, according to the Washington Post. Nearly 80% of US workers now earn a minimum of $15/hour, compared to 60% in 2014.

More than 45% of young people surveyed across 10 countries said climate change caused them anxiety and affected their daily lives. 56% said they thought humanity was doomed.

Women accounted for a record 59.5% of college students at the end of the 2020–2021 school year, while men made up just 40.5%.

 

BIRTHDAYS THIS WEEK – Birthday wishes and thoughts this week to Hal Assael ….famous educator and mentor, Karen Ball ….famous sister, Jeff Bracken …famous southern California rancher, President Jimmy Carter (97), Angie Dickinson (90),  Devorah Lieberman … POTULV, Karla Suffredini …famous sister.

 

MARKET WEEK - Inflation climbed at the quickest pace in 30 years as supply chain issues continue.

The Personal Consumption Expenditures index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred price gauge, rose by 4.3 percent in the year through August. That beat out the July reading of 4.2 percent, another three-decade high. Officials at the Fed are watching those trends as they consider when to remove the economic support that the central bank has been providing during the pandemic.

The U.S. is not alone: Inflation in the eurozone climbed to 3.4 percent in September from a year earlier, the highest in 13 years.

The S&P closed out a bumpy September in the red, its first monthly loss since 2020 (still, it was positive for the third quarter, which ended yesterday). Bed Bath & Beyond, a meme stock fave, plummeted more than 22% yesterday due to declining store traffic and, what else, supply chain snags.

US mortgage rates topped 3% for the first time since early July, tracking rising bond yields. Higher borrowing costs could potentially slow homebuyers’ roll.

Government shutdown: It was avoided with hours to spare. Biden signed a stopgap spending bill that extends government spending through Dec. 3, when Congress will have to figure out another short- or long-term solution. This bill also includes billions of dollars for Afghan refugee resettlement and aid for communities hit by recent hurricanes.

Debt ceiling: Congress has until Oct. 18 to suspend or raise the debt ceiling before the US begins defaulting on its loans, an outcome that would likely be catastrophic for the economy. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer is planning a vote on the debt ceiling as soon as next week (lots of luck with that).

Pandemic discount, we hardly knew ye—rental prices in the US are skyrocketing. The median national rent for a one-bedroom apartment is up 10.7% from March 2020, while two-bedrooms are up 13%, according to the Zumper National Rent Report.

Double digit increases are…not common. For context, 2020 rents increased 1% from the previous year, and 2019 rents were stagnant compared to 2018. It’s a “shocking level of growth, especially considering the vast majority of it has come in the last nine months,” wrote Jeff Andrews, the author of the report.

Why the surge? To put it simply, demand is back. Gen Z renters are moving out of their childhood homes after a long pandemic, remote-working millennials are picking apartments in more affordable cities, and baby boomers are offloading their homes in a seller’s market, opting for rentals instead.

Phoenix, where the one-bedroom median rent increased 24.8% between January and September.

New York City, where some rents have increased 70% since the dog days of the pandemic.

MLB FINAL WEEKEND - There's a lot on the line in MLB's final regular-season weekend, though a couple things wrapped up Thursday in Atlanta and Houston.

NL East: The Braves swept — and eliminated — the Phillies to win their fourth straight title. Atlanta spent 126 days without a winning record, the most for a division winner since the 1989 Blue Jays.

AL Wild Card: The Yankees (91-68) lead the pack, the Red Sox and Mariners (89-70) are tied for the second spot, and the Blue Jays (88-71) are still very much alive. Prepare for some beautiful chaos.

NL West: The Giants (105-54) and Dodgers (103-56) remain separated by two games. Just how good has San Francisco been? L.A. is 41-13 since adding Trea Turner and Max Scherzer ... and they've gained just one game in that stretch.

AL West: The Astros beat the Rays to clinch their fourth AL West title in five years.

ON THIS DATE - Fifty years ago today, the world got a little smaller when the Magic Kingdom first opened at Disney World in Florida. Stats to ponder:

Admission in 1971 was $3.50 for adults and $1 for children. It's $109 now.

The FAA has designated Disney World a “no-fly zone,” a level of security typically afforded to places like the White House and NASA’s Kennedy Space Center.

Disney’s bus fleet is the third largest fleet of any Florida transportation system. (I wish I had bought Disney stock 50 years ago and never sold.)

TOP FIVE – Five decades after the first James Bond movie, the wildly popular British spy film franchise releases its much-anticipated 25th canonical installment Friday with “No Time to Die,” marking star Daniel Craig’s final turn as the suave superspy.

Rink Rats top five James Bond movies:

1.         Goldfinger (1964)

2.         Spectre (2015)

3.         Golden Eye (1995)

4.         Skyfall (2012)

5.         Dr. No (1962)

 

THE SWAMI’S WEEKEND PICKS –

NFL Football Pick of the Week – Monday 10/4, 5:15 PM (PT), ESPN: Las Vegas Raiders (3-0) at Los Angeles Chargers (2-1). One word: Raiders! 30 – 27. (Season to Date 1-2)

College Football Pick of the Week – Saturday 10/2, 12:00 PM (PT), #8 Arkansas Razorbacks (4-0) at #2 Georgia Bulldogs (4-0). SEC at it’s best, Razorbacks in an upset, 35 – 32. (Season to Date 3-1)

D-III College Football Pick of the Week – Saturday 10/2, 1:00 PM (ET) ESPN+: #21 Hobart Statesmen (4-0) at #17 Ithaca College Bombers (3-0). A key Empire 8 contest, there will 6,000 strong at Butterfield Stadium for this one. Bombers in an upset, 24 – 17.  (Season to Date 2-2)

MLB Pick of the Week – Saturday 10/2, 1:00 PM (ET) TBS: Tampa Bay Rays (98-61) at New York Yankees (91-68). Final Saturday of the season, Yanks have to win to clinch a wild-card game on Tuesday. Yanks 5 – 4. (Season to Date (8-7)

2021 Season to Date (46-33)

 

Next Blog: Jackass of the Month, College Hockey Preview, Third Quarter Numbers

Until Monday October 11, 2021 Adios.

Claremont, California

October 1, 2021

#XII-3-440

 

1,787 words, five-minute read

 

CARTOON OF THE WEEKEND – Amy Hwang, Time to be a Cat All Day

 


 

RINK RATS POLL – Are you Covid vaccinated?

___ Yes

___ No

___ None of your business

 

QUOTE OF THE MONTH"Unexpected kindness is the most powerful, least costly, and most underrated agent of human change."Bob Kerry

 

Rink Rats is a blog of weekly observations, predictions and commentary. We welcome your comments and questions. Also participate in our monthly poll. Rink Rats is now viewed in Europe, Canada, South America and the United States.

Posted at Rink Rats The Blog: First Published – May 3, 2010

Our Eleventh Year.

www.rhasserinkrats.blogspot.com

No comments:

Post a Comment