Presidents

Today is Presidents Day in the USA: Presidents Day also known as Washington's Birthday. A day dedicated to celebrating all U.S. presidents, past and present. The holiday was originally established in 1885 to celebrate President George Washington's birthday after his death.

The Senate this week acquitted President Trump in a second impeachment trial. We can only hope that our criminal and civil justice system will keep The Thing under raps forever.

The Presidency is a great institution of our democracy, it is a shame this office has been involved with two impeachments out of four in U.S. history under President Trump.

What are the qualities of a good President? Be it of the government or any institution.

I can tell you what qualities do not make a good President: bullying, telling lies, narcissism, egomaniac, leadership of a few and not all, micro-managing.

So, on this Presidents Day let us hope our future Presidents will never possess these qualities ever again.

“That’s why he went into polities…He wanted all the voters to love him…All he really wanted out of life was love. That’s Charlie’s story – it’s the story of how he lost it. You see, he just didn’t have any to give.” ---“Citizen Kane” (1941)

“A people that values its privileges above its principles soon loses both.” --- Dwight Eisenhower

ON THIS DATE – St. Valentine’s Day 1884, young Theodore Roosevelt lost his mother and then his wife after childbirth and wrote this: “The light has gone out of my life.”

 

RINK RATS LIVE – We have some interesting plans for RR in 2021, a podcast and some interviews. One interview is this coming Thursday February 18 at Noon (PDT). Interested in finding out how this strange mind of RR works? Check us out via this link:

https://zoom.us/webinar/register/WN_TYHHESvjQyGRk-FIKM0mFQ

 

FORGIVE ME - Not a text from your ex. During his campaign, President Biden suggested he would support $10K of broad student loan forgiveness. Wild stat: about ~42M Americans (1 in 8) hold $1.5T worth of student loans combined. Also: Black and Hispanic borrowers are much more likely than white borrowers to be behind on their loan repayment, exacerbating the racial wealth gap. In his campaign plan, Biden proposed a few ways to ease the big debt burden:

Offer $10K of federal student debt relief for every year of national or community service someone performs (for up to five years). Think: public school teachers, police officers, and Peace Corps.

Give a free pass to people making $25K or less per year (no loan or interest payments required). Also: make public college tuition-free for families making under $125K.

Forgive federal loans after 20 years for everyone else who has responsibly made payments, and significantly reduce the overall payment.

But will it happen?... Biden has already said he's "unlikely" to forgive $50K of student loan debt, which progressive Democrats (like Sen. Elizabeth Warren) are pressuring him to do. $50K sounds fantastic, but nearly 70% of Warren's proposed benefit would go to the top 40% of households (higher earners hold most of the student debt). As for Biden's $10K eraser and the other relief, there are three reasons it doesn't seem likely to happen in the near future:

1. Biden isn't doing this via executive order: Instead, his admin signaled they'll go through Congress, which will be a lengthier, more complex process.

2. It's not in the stimulus proposal: Biden's massive $1.9T proposal covers a lot — but not student debt.

3. Biden just extended student loan payment deferrals: Last year, Congress suspended payments and waived interest from March to September. Then, Trump extended that to January 2021. Now, Biden has extended deferrals to October 2021. But some see it as an either/or situation.

Biden chose the least costly option... to achieve the same effect (for now). The eight-month deferral of student loan payments stimulates the pandemic economy similarly to how lowering/canceling payments would: in both cases, you're not required to pay during the pandemic — which (in theory) means you have more $$ in a tough economy. Meanwhile, this deferral scenario doesn't bloat the (already huge) national debt. If Biden does go for loan forgiveness, he'll likely target households that need it most.

STUDENT DEBT - Student debt is stopping millions of Americans from buying homes, buying cars and starting families — and the crisis is rapidly getting worse.

Student debt — which stands at $1.55 trillion — is the biggest category of debt Americans owe, aside from mortgages.

Black college graduates owe an average of $25,000 more than their white counterparts.

According to a new survey by Harris Poll, 64% of Americans support canceling some student debt, and 55% support canceling all of it.

President Biden has proposed immediately cancelling $10,000 of federal student loan debt for every borrower, which would cost around $370 billion.

That would eliminate debt for the 15 million borrowers who owe $10,000 or less — a broad-based approach that would help all 42 million borrowers.

But here's what that alone wouldn't do:

It wouldn't make much of a difference for the nearly 30 million borrowers who owe more than $10,000. Many of them went to graduate school and owe hundreds of thousands.

It wouldn’t target the most vulnerable borrowers. Canceling the same amount of debt for all doesn’t account for the fact that many Americans with student debt are also among the most well-educated and high-earning.

Insurmountable student debt is a recent phenomenon, explains Adam Looney, an economist at the University of Utah.

It's been growing at six times the rate of the U.S. economy, and it's only getting worse.

There are no limits on how much students can borrow and few restrictions on how they spend the money.

On top of that, the cost of college and graduate school is skyrocketing. As a result, young people are borrowing sums of money they can’t possibly repay — and many are using that money to pursue degrees at online or for-profit colleges with higher than average dropout rates.

Among the American public, canceling debt isn't a fringe idea any more.

In the Harris Poll survey, 78% support putting restrictions on the price of a university education. And 59% support no tuition at public universities.

 

COLLEGE CHRONICLES – This past week the University of La Verne named their new Provost, Dr. Kerop Janoyan, presently Dean of the Graduate School at Clarkson University. Yes, fellow St. Lawrence friends, Clarkson University!

Rink Rats has been in contact with Dr. Janoyan and he is a hockey fan and acknowledges his respect for St. Lawrence and his enthusiasm of coming to the La Verne campus this April.

 

PODCASTS - Nearly every major media and entertainment company is pouring lots of cash into launching new podcasts. But few of them are making money.

The top 1% of podcasts get 99% of downloads.

How it works: The podcast ecosystem was built in a decentralized manner via RSS feeds.

As more big companies invest in podcast empires, the question of how to build an advertising market that works ubiquitously across different platforms has yet to be answered.

While podcasting is the fastest-growing advertising medium, it's still tiny:

The industry still only brings in less than $1 billion in ad revenue, even though more than 90 million people listen to podcasts monthly, according to Edison Research.

For the small number of successes, podcasts can be lucrative: The N.Y. Times' podcast division reportedly brought in nearly $30 million in 2020. Vox Media's podcasting business is in eight figures. Spotify reportedly paid Joe Rogan $100 million+ for an exclusive deal.

SPAC - Special purpose acquisition companies (SPACs) were undoubtedly the Silly Bandz of 2020. In total, 242 SPACs were launched last year, accounting for nearly half the money raised via public offerings.

The SPAC club includes billionaire investors like Bill Ackman and Chamath Palihapitiya, former House Speaker Paul Ryan, and even Shaq.

Unlike Silly Bandz, SPACs may have some staying power. So far in 2021, an average of five new SPACs has been launched every business day, attracting nearly $20 billion from investors. That already exceeds 2019’s total.

Let’s SPAC up for a minute

Like the word “erudite,” SPAC might be a term that you hear frequently without fully understanding what it means. A SPAC is a publicly traded shell company whose single purpose in life is to merge with another company, taking them public in the process. Investors buy shares in the “blank-check” company, trusting the people behind the SPAC to identify a promising target to acquire. SPACs typically have two years to secure a deal before they are contractually obligated to return any money raised to investors.

Some notable companies that went public via SPACs are DraftKings, Virgin Galactic, and essentially the entire electric vehicle industry—26 companies tied to mobility and technology went public via SPAC last year, with five more already on the docket for 2021.

So why SPAC? For one, they’re quicker than a traditional IPO process. Hims, a telehealth startup, negotiated with SPAC Oaktree Acquisition Corp. for just four months before agreeing to a deal that would take it public. A traditional IPO would have taken 12 to 18 months, the company’s CEO told the WSJ.

Wall Street sees icebergs ahead

Goldman Sachs was the third most active underwriter of SPAC IPOs last year, but CEO David Solomon said in last week’s earnings call that they “need to be pulled back or rebalanced in some way.” His main concern? SPACs have become way overhyped.

One example: The SPAC SoftBank launched last year is currently trading 34% higher than its initial price...but it hasn’t even announced an acquisition target. 

Looking ahead...down the road SPACs may be less popular than they are now, replaced by other creative ways to go public. We're clearly not close to that point yet.

MARCH A LAGO - While pundits ponder the GOP's future -- and traditionalists hope to change course out of the wreckage left by Trump's insurrection -- Washington's power players and state activists have already made their choice. Highlighting the former President's lightning fast rehabilitation, the House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy visited The Thing in Florida last Thursday after repudiating his own criticism of the incitement of the US Capitol riot. In the Republican Party, the post-Trump era lasted a week. (If your outrage over insurrection lasts more than for hours...)

Many observers commented on the jarring mixture of Christian, nationalist and racist symbolism amongst the insurrectionists: there were Christian crosses and Jesus Saves banners, Trump flags and American flags, fascist insignia and a ‘Camp Auschwitz' hoodie. Some saw apples and oranges. But it was really a fruit cocktail: White Christian Nationalism.

 

MARKET WEEK - The U.S. economy grew rapidly in the fourth quarter of 2020 and is forecast to continue recovering this year from the effects of the pandemic.

Yet despite a strong rebound in the second half of last year, the economy contracted 3.5% in 2020, measured year over year, the first decline since the 2008 financial crisis and the largest since 1946. Measured from the fourth quarter to the same quarter a year earlier the economy shrank 2.5%

Fourth-quarter U.S. gross domestic product—the value of all goods and services produced across the economy, adjusted for seasonality and inflation—grew at a 4% annual rate, the Commerce Department said on Thursday. That joined a record 33.4% annual rate of growth in third quarter to further reduce losses from earlier in the pandemic.

The International Monetary Fund expects the U.S. economy to grow 5.1% this year, while economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal projected 4.3% growth, measured from the fourth quarter of the prior year.

2040 - With President Biden in the White House, climate change is back on the agenda. Like the pandemic, the climate crisis affects almost everyone. Unlike the coronavirus, we can’t contain it with social distancing or a vaccine. There isn’t one clear path to fixing the problem. But understanding the humanitarian and economic risks we could face in the next 20 years might make us rethink our priorities.

We confront these potential perils because the emissions that have accumulated in the atmosphere are causing accelerating risks for the climate and the polar ice sheets. The predictions are unsettling. More frequent extreme weather is expected to increase our exposure to climate-related natural disasters. Using data from Four Twenty Seven, an environmental risk assessment firm, we found that by 2040, roughly 90 percent of the global population will live in areas with at least one high-risk climate threat. Those dangers include floods, wildfires, extreme temperatures, water scarcity, hurricanes and rising seas. About 41 percent of the global population and 57 percent of the world economy will be vulnerable to floods, while some 40 percent of people and the economy will be at high risk of water scarcity.

Many countries will be exposed to multiple risks. In the United States, the East Coast may be more affected by hurricanes while the West Coast may suffer from wildfires and drought, and the Midwest from extreme temperatures and floods. One way or another, roughly 80 percent of the U.S. population, economy and agriculture may be exposed. You can select your country here to see what climate hazards you could experience.

Most of the exposed population will live in low- and middle-income countries. In those places, climate disasters will combine with poor infrastructure and a weak economy to produce challenges including crop failure, water shortages, mass migration and disease.

Biden’s presidency marks the beginning of a renewed effort to combat climate change. On his first day, he recommitted the United States to the Paris Agreement and he has pledged to invest in the green economy. But if we don’t act soon, these disturbing projections may become reality.

Bank of New York Mellon Corp., the nation's oldest bank, is making the leap into the market for bitcoin, a sign of broader acceptance of the once fringe digital currency. The custody bank said Thursday it will hold, transfer and issue bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies on behalf of its asset-managment clients.

Crypto: The US stock market is closed today for Presidents Day, but the bitcoin store is open and it is busy. The cryptocurrency is closing in on $50,000 after hitting more record highs this weekend (bitcoin doesn’t have specific “trading hours” like stocks).

RATINGS - More than 12 million people have watched live television coverage of the second Senate impeachment trial of former President DOnald J. Trump, an audience larger than the one for the first trials a little more than a year ago, according to Nielsen. 

 

BIRTHDAYS THIS WEEK – Birthday wishes and thoughts this week to Jim Brown (85), Matt Groening (67), Kevin Marshall… famous law school Dean, Gretchen Pugliese…famous health advocate, Bill Russell (87), Rene Russo (67), Jane Seymour (70)

 

TOP FIVE - Country Singers Net Worth

# 5. Garth Brooks - $335 Million Net Worth.

# 4. Taylor Swift -$375 Million Net Worth.

# 3. Shania Twain - $420 Million Net Worth.

# 2. Toby Keith - $515 Million Net Worth.

# 1. Dolly Parton - $590 Million Net Worth.

 

JACK ASS OF THE MONTH – There are many contenders for the Jackass of the Month for February. But we have a clear-cut winner: Senator Mitch McConnell of the Commonwealth of Kentucky.

Forty-three Senate Republicans voted to acquit The Thing, but few defended him when they announced their votes. Instead, they cited process arguments and said impeaching an ex-president is unconstitutional, which even many conservative attorneys’ dispute. In short, GOP senators passed up an opportunity to put Trump away for good because their base still loves him — and they fear the base.

Minority Leader MITCH MCCONNELL delivered a blistering rebuke of The Thing — just minutes after voting to acquit him. During his floor speech, the Republican leader said the House managers proved their case that The Thing incited the riot and suggested he could still be charged with a crime. “These criminals were carrying his banners, hanging his flags and screaming their loyalty to him. … He did not do his job. … He watched television happily — happily — as the chaos unfolded,” McConnell said.

But the reality is that had McConnell voted to convict, the base would have demanded his ouster from leadership, just as they did with Rep. LIZ CHENEY (R-Wyo.). His members would have had to choose between their constituents or him. As disgusted as he was with Trump, McConnell would only go so far.

McConnell is clearly looking to steer the party to a post-The Thing future. They include, notably, taking sides in Republican Senate primaries against Trump-backed hopefuls if he thinks they’ll lose.

Because Senator McConnell likes to have it both ways, he is our Jackass of the Month.

OUT AND ABOUT – Good to hear from old Rink Rats friend Terry Zangkas (Country Day ’72). Terry has assured RR that the Detroit Red Wings are rebuilding fine and will be a contender next year. Also take the overs for the Detroit Tigers for the coming season, 63 games.

SUPER BOWL 55 RATINGS - CBS Sports’ telecast of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ 31-9 victory over the Kansas City Chiefs averaged 91.629 million viewers, down 8% from Fox’s telecast of the Super Bowl last year. The CBS number includes out-of-home viewership.

This year marks the lowest TV-only audience for the Big Game since Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Seattle Seahawks averaged 90.75 million viewers on ABC in 2006.

The numbers were better for overall viewing, with CBS recording a total audience delivery of 96.4 million viewers across all platforms — down 6% from last year.

CBS noted Bucs-Chiefs was the most live-streamed NFL game ever, averaging 5.7 million viewers per minute, up 65% from last year’s game. It was the first NFL game in history to total more than 1 billion streaming minutes.

Multiple factors unique to the game may have driven down TV numbers.

The game was a blowout with the Bucs’ 22-point win representing the second-biggest margin of victory over the last 18 Super Bowls. TV viewers don’t stick around for lop-sided contests.

Referees largely controlled the pace and drama, particularly in the first half.

There could have been Tom Brady fatigue for his 10th Super Bowl.

The Super Bowl audience drops are in line with the NFL’s 8% falloff for the 2020 regular season. But the numbers still caught many sports media-watchers by surprise — particularly after the AFC and NFC Championship games drew rating increases.

Side note: The Swami ended the NFL season with a 64.4% winning percentage for all NFL games this season. The Swami was correct with his Super Bowl pick, but his over/under was wrong. See you next season… watch out for those Deeetroit Lions next season, pre-season pick 9-7.

GOLF - Professional golfers are hitting the ball such long distances that courses can't keep up. Now, golf's governing bodies appear ready to act.

Driving the news: The USGA and the R&A (Europe) jointly announced Tuesday that they will explore four potential changes intended to curb distance gains:

Changing the specifications of equipment

Changing how manufacturers test equipment

Limiting the maximum club length to 46 inches

Allowing tournament organizers to implement equipment standards

"Golfers need to understand that this every-generation-hits-the-ball-farther is affecting the game negatively. ... We're just trying to fit the game of golf back on golf courses."

— USGA CEO Mike Davis, via Golfweek

Three key factors in determining hitting distance have undergone significant advancements this century: the swing, the club and the ball.

It's put the game at a crossroads: Should courses expand to keep up with the modern golfer, or should equipment be altered to reduce distance?

A year ago, the USGA and R&A stated that the continuing increase in length was "detrimental" to the game.

By the numbers: In 1990, the average PGA Tour driving distance was 262.8 yards. In 2020, it was 296.4 yards — an increase of nearly 13%.

Bernhard Langer, who plays on the PGA's senior circuit, drives the ball farther at age 63 (273.5 yards) than he did in his prime (269.7 yards in 1985).

If distance-related changes are made at the professional level, it could lead to a bifurcation of rules like we have in baseball.

Just as metal bats are used at every level below the majors and minors, certain golf equipment could be permitted for everyday players, but not pros.

There's no timeline for when the proposed changes, if adopted, would be implemented.

But it likely won't be for at least another year, as the USGA and R&A gather research alongside manufacturers and other stakeholders.

SWAMI’S WEEKEND TOP PICKS –

NBA Pick of the Week – Sunday 2/21, 5:00 PM (PDT), EXPN: Brooklyn Nets (16-12) vs. Los Angeles Clippers (20-8). Clippers have too much depth for the over-rated Nets, Clips win 100 – 90.  (Season to date 1-5)

NHL Pick of the Week – Saturday 2/20, 8:00 PM (EDT), ESPN+: Tampa Bay Lightning (10-2-1) vs. Dallas Stars (5-3-4). A return to the last Cup Final, Lightning still has the Stars number, 4 – 3.   (Season to date 3-1)

NCAA College Hockey Pick of the Week – Friday 2/19, 7:37 PM (CDT), MidCo Sports: #10 Nebraska-Omaha Mavericks (13-6-1) vs. #2 North Dakota Fighting Hawks (15-4-1). It will be a chilly evening in more ways than one for the Mavericks, Hawks win 5 – 2. (Season to Date 4-1)

Season to Date (12-8)

 

Next Blog:  Dear Rink Rats and I miss movie theatres.

 

Until Monday February 22, 2021 Adios.

Claremont, California

February 15, 2021

#XI-26-432

 

3,649 words, six-minute read

 

CARTOON OF THE WEEKEND – Mick Stevens

 

“I really appreciate this, guys. I don’t know how much longer I could have taken being cooped up in my apartment.”

 

RINK RATS WEEKEND POLL – In the last few decades, popular music has gotten…

___ Better

___ Worse

___ Neither

___ I don't know

 

QUOTE OF THE MONTH: “Sometimes it takes a wrong turn to get you to the right place.” -Mandy Hale

 

 

Rink Rats is a blog of weekly observations, predictions and commentary. We welcome your comments and questions. Also participate in our monthly poll. Rink Rats is now viewed in Europe, Canada, South America and the United States.

Posted at Rink Rats The Blog: First Published – May 3, 2010

Our Eleventh Year.

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