Monday, July 30, 2018

July Quiet


Here in the City of Trees, PhDs, and poor city management, Claremont, California the days are hot and quiet: Students are off campus (home), Retirees are in San Diego or visiting grand kids back east, Families are at the beach or if they can avoid the fires, in the mountains, those of us who are left just want quiet.

Lite traffic, you can carry on a conversation in a restaurant and hear, and a slower pace, highlight July. A rare event in Southern California, calmness, enjoy it for a very short time, come mid-August, history.

In July birthdays are celebrated with key lime pie, not birthday cake.

In July the Stanley Cup visits lakes not, rinks.

In July tenure faculty are no where to be seen, adjunct faculty rule.

In July you sit on a porch and listen for the birds.

In July the Detroit Tigers and Los Angeles Angels seasons are over.

Cool people born in July are Leos.

In July shorts replace slacks.

In July I wish I was on Nauset Beach not Waikiki Beach.

In July operating budgets in higher education mean nothing, student enrollments mean everything.

In July basements are nice and cool, attics are brutally hot.

What we are Reading in July: “The Dawn of Detroit” Tiya Miles, a chronicle of slavery and freedom in the city of the straits.

“Casey Stengel” Marty Appel, a fine biography of baseball’s greatest character.

“Other People’s Money” John Kay, the real business of finance.

What we are watching in July: “Godless” Netflix, a western epic.

“Sharp Objects” HBO, creepy.

“Breaking Bad” AMC, finally watching every episode, classic.

ROBOCALLS, THE HORROR - Remember when phone calls meant people wanted to talk to you about something other than lowering your interest rates? These days, the phone rings so often with recorded robocall messages—You qualify! You owe! You’ve won!—answering feels like a hazard.

I have hit my own robocall breaking point. Enough is enough! Why can’t anyone stop this madness? When will it end?

First, the bad news: Almost every person I talked to about robocalls used the phrase, “There’s no silver bullet.”

But developments in the works should get the robocall problem more under control. And there are steps to take on your own that actually do reduce calls.

Where did this evil come from?

Back when phone calls were transmitted over copper wires, businesses paid a lot of money for phone systems that allowed 1,000 employees to make calls without needing 1,000 phone lines. These systems inserted caller ID so, for instance, customers all saw the same business number, regardless of which employee made the call.

With the internet, businesses don’t need expensive hardware. Anyone can start a mini call center with software that auto-dials numbers and spoofs caller ID. They also need a provider to “originate” the call, that is, connect the internet call to the phone network.

Some robocalls are legitimate—your pharmacy, your bank—but not the ones that change numbers constantly to appear local and avoid detection. Robocallers even spoof numbers held by ordinary phone customers like you and me (so don’t call them back to yell at them.)

With caller ID basically broken, developers have proposed a call-certifying protocol (known as STIR) and guidelines for implementing it (known as SHAKEN). The names behind these acronyms are long and confusing.

With it, an originating phone carrier could check that a caller has the right to use a number and create a digital fingerprint for the call. The carrier on the receiving end could verify that nothing was messed with in transit.

“They’re actually not saying that the call comes from the phone number. What they’re saying is this user is entitled to use this phone number,” says Jim McEachern, a principal technologist with the Alliance for Telecommunications Industry Solutions, a technical working group that helped develop guidelines for this call-certification protocol.

If a bad guy tries to spoof the caller ID, the call would go through, but it wouldn’t be verified. Eventually, users would see a check mark or other indicator for verified calls.
Mr. McEachern likens the current state of robocalls to the days before email spam filters. “I think something similar will happen with this,” he says. “Suddenly people will say, ‘Remember how bad that used to be?’”

Mr. McEachern estimates that could take two to five years. Verizon plans to start rolling the system out later this year and other carriers are expected to follow.

“We are optimistic it will have an impact but again, this alone is not going to solve the problem,” says Matthew Berry, chief of staff at the Federal Communications Commission, which comes up with rules for the industry, fines people and companies for violations and develops public policy initiatives.

What you can do now - When you get a robocall, hang up. Don’t say anything, don’t press buttons and don’t call back. Once scammers know a number works, they can sell it and your call volume could increase.

It can feel like there’s no point in blocking numbers in your phone—I blocked one peddling chronic pain management and got the same recording from another within 48 hours. But do it anyway, because there are plenty of repeat offenders out there. Here’s how to do it on iOS and Android.

Also, add yourself to the Federal Trade Commission’s Do Not Call Registry. Just know that you will still get unwanted calls, because scammers don’t obey rules. Also, keep filing robocall complaints. It helps the FTC spot evildoers.

Service providers have upped their robocall-protection offerings recently so check in with your carrier. They include features to identify possible scam calls—and even gauge the likelihood it is a scam—as well as block them or send them to voice mail.

AT&T call-protection services are also free, and include blocking suspected fraud. It also offers a $4-a-month service that lets you block specific categories of calls and includes reverse phone-number lookup.

Verizon’s recently improved $3-a-month Caller Name ID service for wireless can now send spam numbers to voice mail.

Sprint’s newly updated Premium Caller ID, also $3 a month, lets iOS users automatically reject calls based on the likelihood they are scams. Android users will get this feature later this summer.

Just stop the madness.

SPEAKING OF PRIVACY - Google has a “dirty secret.” The internet giant said a year ago it would stop its computers from scanning Gmail users’ inboxes but continues to let hundreds of outside software developers scan millions of those inboxes.

RACE TO A TRILLON - Track the market cap race to a trillion: Will Apple, Amazon, Microsoft or Alphabet reach the ‘quatro commas’ club first?" Leading tech companies have enjoyed surges in market capitalization, as revenues and profits have powered ahead and investors showed an insatiable appetite for their shares. Apple is closest to becoming the first [public] company to achieve a $1tn valuation, but Amazon, Alphabet and Microsoft are not far behind.

SUMMER TRAVEL - At an average of almost $3 a gallon, pump prices are 60 cents more than last Memorial Day, and the highest in four years. Here are the culprits:

President Trump for his decision to withdraw from the Iran nuclear deal.
OPEC and Russia for cutting oil production in 2016.
The EPA for requiring cleaner and more expensive gasoline blends in summertime.

JULY POLL - A USA Today poll made a clever distinction in its questions and had a more encouraging result (taken online July 5 and 6; 1,004 U.S. adults; ±3.5 margin of error for total):

72% felt proud to be Americans.
42% feel proud of America right now.

Consider:
"The U.S. had more job openings this spring than unemployed Americans." (Wall Street Journal)
We travel freely: Every day, 2.5 million of us board 42,000 flights.

25% of us do volunteer service.

The U.S. government spends close to $50 billion (1% of total federal budget authority) helping the world, plus billions more from U.S.-based philanthropies.

Americans are part of just 39% of the world population judged by Freedom House to be "free."

"Violent crime in the U.S. has fallen sharply over the past quarter century." (Pew Research Center)

"Crime in New York City Plunges to a Level Not Seen Since the 1950s." (N.Y. Times)

"Powered by a booming stock market and a strong economy," charitable giving in the U.S. last year "exceeded $400 billion in a single year for the first time." (Giving USA)

About 1.3 million of us are on active duty in the military, and 20 million of us once served. (But, per the Pentagon: "The number of Americans with firsthand experience with service members or veterans has declined precipitously since the beginning of the all-volunteer military in 1973.")

Labor Market – more Americans are now changing jobs for higher pay.

COLLEGE CHRONICLES – Better off students: The unpaid internship is becoming less common. Thanks to a tight labor market with historic lows in unemployment, more companies are paying for workers they used to get for free, in order to secure a pipeline of young talent. Since 2012, when half of all internships weren’t paid, unpaid internships have steadily declined, hitting 43% in 2017.

Grand Canyon Education Inc. won approval on Monday to spin off Grand Canyon University into a nonprofit institution. The $875-million deal positions the university to expand its enrollment, and the company to become a major vendor on the higher-education scene. As part of its agreement with the university, the company will manage services including financial aid and admissions. Once Grand Canyon Education starts to offer those services to outside institutions — which it expects to do for a couple of institutions within six months — there’s no reason it couldn’t handle that work for students at other colleges, too.

Since at least 1975, the humanities have been in a downward spiral. In 2008 enrollments and jobs started to vanish, with no recovery in sight. At Penn State, for example, the number of humanities majors fell by about 40 percent across all disciplines from 2010 to 2015.

This general decline in undergraduate humanities enrollments does not correspond to a decline in undergraduate enrollments overall or in the liberal arts more generally. It has taken place in a relatively short period of time — not since 2008, but since 2010 or 2011, which is what makes it hard to see, given that much of the data we have for historical enrollments are at this point a year or two (or more) behind the times. At many institutions, the decline in humanities majors since 2010 is over 50 percent.

But it doesn’t have to end, even if it does have to change. No one ever said you would get to do the job in the same way for all 40 years of your career. No one ever said that large-scale social changes wouldn’t change your working conditions. And now they have. It is time to be creative, time to look for new ways to connect with our students and help them love what the humanities can do for them.

MERGER MANIA - More than $2.5 trillion in deals were announced during the first half of the year, putting M.&.A. in 2018 on pace to surpass $5 trillion. That would be the largest yearly total on record.

• Many of the biggest deals, particularly those in the media business, are bids to fend off competition from tech companies.
• Cross-border deals totaled $1 trillion, despite trade tensions — though it could be too early for that rancor to have an effect.
• The largest portion of deals are takeovers of American companies.

There’s also a warning: Other recent peaks in merger activity have been followed by a recession. Potential trade wars, regulatory uncertainty and rising interest rates could mean this boom will end the same way.

GDP - The economy did fine in the second quarter. The question for investors is how it will do for the rest of the year.

Gross domestic product grew at a 4.1% annual rate in the second quarter, up from 2.2% in the first, the Commerce Department said Friday. The reality isn’t quite so good, but even though the economy might not be off to the races, it is growing solidly and set to retain that momentum throughout 2018.

BIRTHDAYS THIS WEEK – Birthday wishes and thoughts this week to Tony Bennett (92) New York, NY; Ted Lindsay (93) Birmingham, MI; Tom McGuire …I should have roomed with him at St. Lawrence.

THE WAY WE WERE – A new segment to Rink Rats, some photos of years gone by, submitted to us by some sick individuals desiring to make us look like fools.

Seriously, wonderful memories and special friends.

Peter Blair, while touring with Kool and the Gang.

Left to right: Jeff Dillon, Ron Harris, Bill Reid.

Left to right: Two Words: Road Trip

A thank you to Tom McGuire for unearthing these photos.

MARKET WEEK – It's another big week in corporate earnings.

Apple will report numbers Tuesday. The tech behemoth may face unforeseen hurdles with the ongoing U.S.-China trade war. It has been exploring more ad sales, which could help offset slowing iPhone growth, but such an effort would face stiff competition from Google and Facebook.

Tesla will release earnings Wednesday afternoon. As the electric-car company seeks to ramp up production of the Model 3, Tesla recently asked some suppliers to return cash to help turn a profit.

CBS will have to address allegations against Leslie Moonves and its culture when it reports earnings Thursday. The company is investigating accusations against its CEO after the New Yorker published an article reporting sexual-harrassment claims from six women. These issues come as the company is locked in a legal battle with Shari Redstone over a potential merger with Viacom.

The Labor Department releases the July jobs report Friday. Wall Street will watch to see whether average monthly job gains this year continue to outpace the last two years. Economists surveyed by WSJ forecast employers added 188,000 to nonfarm payrolls, while the unemployment rate ticked down to 3.9%.

The Federal Reserve meets Tuesday and Wednesday. The Fed is widely expected to leave its benchmark interest rate unchanged and then increase in September. The market will be watching to see if there are any clues on whether there still will be a third rate hike in December.

ANOTHER MASTERS NO – For fifteenth straight year, another no from The Masters:

“We have completed the random selection process for 2019 Practice Rounds and Daily Tournament tickets and regret your application was not selected for tickets. Be sure and visit masters.com for up to the date Masters Tournament information.”

“As a reminder, you will be notified next May when the ticket application process begins for the 2020 Masters.”

“Thank you for your continued interest in the Masters.”

Sincerely,
Credentials Committee
Masters Tournament

SWAMI’S WEEK TOP PICKS

MLB Game of the Week – Saturday August 4; Houston Astros (67-40) visit Los Angeles Dodgers (59-47), both teams have narrow division leads but are expected to perhaps meet again in the World Series. Dodgers win this one 4 - 3.

Season to Date (30 -20)


ON THIS DATEJuly 29, 1958; Today marks 60 years since The National Aeronautics and Space Administration was created and NASA have achieved some truly incredible feats in that time.

In 1951 Alan Shepard became the first American in space, Neil Armstrong became the first man on the moon in 1969 (something Shepard did in 1971) and in 1983 Sally Rider became the first woman in space. In 2001, the first crew of three took up residence in the International Space Station and there are currently six crew members on board - three Americans (Andrew Feustel, Richard Arnold and Serena Auñón-Chancellor), two Russians (Oleg Artemyev and Sergey Prokopyev) and a German (Alexander Gerst) on expedition 56/57.

NASA has always been the gateway to the unknown and the unexplored. They are America's link to all that surrounds us, and their missions and research is fundamental to how much we know about space today.

DRIVING THE WEEK - Monday: National Cheesecake Day; Earnings (Stifel, Caterpillar, AthenaHealth, Chegg)

Tuesday: FOMC meeting begins; Bank of Japan meets; Earnings (Apple, Shopify, Nintendo, P&G, Pfizer, Pandora, Honda, Baidu)

Wednesday: World Wide Web Day; Earnings (Tesla, FitBit, Humana, Square, Volkswagen, Sprint, TripAdvisor, U.S. Steel Corp.)

Thursday: Bank of England meets; Earnings (Wayfair, Blue Apron, Cigna, GoPro, Aetna, CBS, Kellogg, Yum! Brands)

Friday: Jobs data for July; International Beer Day; Earnings (Kraft Heinz)

Next Blog: Preseason Football Picks.

Until next time, Adios

Claremont, California

July 30, 2018
#IX-7-375

CARTOON OF THE WEEK – The New Yorker, Vacation





Monday, July 2, 2018

Downtime


Canada Day, Independence Day, the week ahead is a downtime week. Monday off for Canada Day, Wednesday off for Independence Day, why work this week? Let’s read Rink Rats, get up to date, and spend some downtime.

Easier said than done these days.

Traveling this week for the holiday? Way to be original. According to AAA, a record 46.9 million people will be hauling 50 miles or more—up more than 5% since last year.

More numbers you need to know:

$171: The average cost of a round-trip flight (along the top 40 domestic routes). If that sounds cheap...it is. It's the lowest July 4th-week airfare in five years.

2x: If you plan on hitting the road in D.C., NYC, or Los Angeles Tuesday afternoon, expect your travel time to at least double.

11%: The increase in mid-tier hotel prices from last year.

362,000: The number of stranded motorists AAA expects to help. Issues include dead batteries, flat tires, and lockouts.

#1: The top domestic destination? Orlando, FL. And the top spot goes to Rome for international travel.

WHAT’S ON THE iPHONE? – five songs we are listening to this July holiday week:

1). “The Stars and Stripes Forever”, 1896 – John Philip Sousa
2). “Peaceful, Easy Feeling”, 1972 - Eagles
3). “Return to Sender”, 1962 – Elvis Presley
4). “Wild Wild Life”, 1986 – Talking Heads
5). “Theme from Shaft”, 1972 – Isaac Hayes

JULY HOLIDAY DESSERTS - Boozy Bomb Pops

How to improve on a childhood classic? First, use real fruit. Second, spike those stripes. In her Boozy Bomb Pops, Hildie Haviland of the Detroit Pop Shop (a fixture at metro-area farmers markets) layers tangy yogurt with vanilla vodka-laced strawberry and blueberry purees.

Makes: 10 to 12 servings
Yield: 10 to 12 ice pops

Hands On 45 mins
Total Time 9 hrs

ingredients
1 cup sugar
2 cups strawberries
2 cups blueberries
4 tablespoons vanilla-flavor vodka or vanilla cream liqueur (optional) Editors Note: forget the 4 tablespoons of vanilla-flavor vodka, 6 shots will do…we recommend Absolut Vanilla Vodka.
2 teaspoons lemon juice, divided
2/3 cup vanilla-flavor yogurt
1 teaspoon vanilla

directions
In a small saucepan, bring 1 cup water and the sugar to boiling, stirring until mixture is clear and surface is covered with bubbles. Let syrup cool completely. Meanwhile, if spiking pops, place berries in separate bowls and drizzle each with 2 tablespoons vodka.

For red layer: Puree strawberries (and vodka, if using) in a food processor or blender. Transfer to a small pitcher; stir in 1/2 cup of the chilled syrup and 1 teaspoon lemon juice. Pour into ten to twelve 3- to 4-ounce pop molds or paper cups to fill molds one-third. (You may have excess mixture.) Do not put in sticks. Freeze 3 to 4 hours or until firm.

For white layer: Stir together yogurt and vanilla in a small pitcher. Pour over frozen red layer to fill molds about two-thirds. Insert sticks; hold in place with clothespins laid across the rim. Freeze for 3 to 4 hours or until firm.

For blue layer: Follow Step 2 using blueberries. Pour into molds, leaving 1/4 inch at top for expansion. Freeze 3 to 4 hours or until firm.

Take mold out of freezer and place in a room temperature bath that comes all the way to the top lid. Hold there for 5 to 10 seconds. Remove lid and pull the popsicles straight up to release from the mold.

tip

If frozen pop molds are unavailable, use 3-ounce wax-lined paper cups instead. Pour the strawberry layer into each cup, about 1/3 of the way up. Freeze 2 to 3 hours or until frozen. Pour the second layer (white layer) about 2/3 of the way up. Cover each cup with a piece of foil. Using a small sharp knife, make a slit in each piece of foil. Insert wooden pop sticks into slits. Freeze 2 to 3 hours until frozen. Remove foil and carefully pour in blueberry layer to fill cups. Cover with foil and freeze 2 to 3 hours or until frozen.

tip two

As a backup we suggest Jello Vodka shots, a sound replacement for July holiday desserts.

COLLEGE CHRONICLES – Median revenue growth among public universities has fallen for the second consecutive year, according to a report from Moody's Investors Service. In the 2017 fiscal year, growth was 2.9 percent. Meanwhile, the median growth of expenses is on the rise, too — at a rate of 4.8 percent. The good news? Total public-university enrollment is up.

The Trump administration has proposed merging the U.S. Departments of Education and Labor, but higher-education experts are skeptical that Congress would sign off on such a change. Why? While some Republican lawmakers love to criticize the Education Department, they do like the federal money it brings to their districts.

THE RICH GET RICHER - The advent of conference networks and new television rights deals have led to skyrocketing revenues for athletic programs and universities this decade. And those revenue distributions coming to power conference schools keep rising with seemingly no end in sight.

The University of Michigan released their athletic budget this week and within it was the revelation of just how much the school received from their most recent Big Ten conference revenue distribution.

After receiving $36 million in 2017, Michigan received a $51.1 million payout in 2018 from the conference largely thanks to a huge rights deal with ESPN and Fox and the success of the Big Ten Network. The number will increase to $52.1 million for the 2019 fiscal year.

To show you how far these conferences have come in such a short period of time and how these numbers are increasing at an astronomical rate, consider that Big Ten teams received just $25 million per school in the 2013 fiscal year. The Big Ten has incredibly been able to double their revenue distribution for schools in just five short years. Yes, double. It’s astounding. And it shows that maybe Jim Delany wasn’t all that crazy in making sure he got BTN on cable systems on the east coast to expand the league’s footprint. Even though Rutgers and Maryland haven’t exactly fit in seamlessly with the likes of Michigan and Ohio State on the field, expansion and realignment has certainly paid off for the conference.

To put that number in further perspective, it far surpasses anything that we’ve seen so far in the conference revenue race to this point. The Big Ten is in a league of their own with the SEC, which managed to lead all conferences in distributing $40 million to schools in 2017. The other power five conferences are further behind and while the coming ACC Network should make that conference a little more competitive on the revenue front, it’ll likely still be far behind the Big Ten.

Just remember though, these same schools receiving tens of millions of dollars just can’t find a way to afford to pay their players. I don’t know of too many Division III programs that are raking in $50 million per year.

JUST GRADUATED, THINK LAST PAYCHECK NOT FIRST - As I sat watching the most recent Commencement at The University of La Verne, I looked out at the sea of caps and gowns and wondered, how many of them are thinking about their final paycheck?  They were almost certainly thinking about their first.

But I am an OG, retirement is my middle name, so thinking about how people will pay for life in retirement is one of the great mysteries in my life. The reality is that we have only an educated guess for what is in store for today’s graduates when it comes time for them to retire. One thing we can say with confidence: the sooner they start to save and invest, the more prepared they will be and the greater flexibility they will have along the way.

What graduates and those just starting their first job need now are a few painless ways to get started. Share these tips with a grad you know:

1. Invest your graduation gifts

When family and friends splash the cash to congratulate you on your hard work, they expect you to treat yourself or hope to help smooth out some bumps as you get started. Investing that money may help you maximize their generosity. Of course, many grads may need to meet immediate expenses. If you cannot invest all of it, find a percentage you are comfortable investing.

2. Round up your student loan payments

Repaying student loans may seem like a daunting task. It may feel like paying for your past is getting in the way of building your future. But you may be able to use that habit of making your regular payment to do both. When you budget your payments, round up and invest the extra. For example, if you are paying $250 a month, budget $300 and invest the extra $50. (You may also look into refinancing your student loans and investing the savings.)

3. Explore technology that helps you save as you spend

A new generation of investment tools are designed to fit in with your lifestyle. For example, Acorns (The micro-investing app in the United States. Acorns aims to help America’s next generation of up-and-coming investors improve the way they engage with, save, and ultimately invest their money) rounds up the cost of simple every day purchases, like the salad you just bought for lunch, and invests the difference. It’s the digital-age equivalent of sweeping up your change every night and dropping it into a jar. It may seem small, but it adds up quickly.

4. Take advantage of your 401(k)

With all your future wages ahead of you, now’s the time to form good habits and expectations around how you invest. That’s part of the value of being defaulted into your company’s 401(k). It’s like auto-pay for retirement saving–you don’t have to think about it. But don’t just accept the default rate. Make sure you are contributing enough to get the full company match and understand how long you need to stay in the job to be fully vested. Opt in to auto-escalation as well, so that each year–presumably when you get a raise–you can save and accrue a bit more.

5. Make your future even brighter

Here’s the thing–any start, no matter how small, can make a significant impact over time. And time is one thing all new grads have a lot of. So take advantage of it. Getting started doesn’t have to be difficult. There are many low-cost options available that may be an appropriate place to begin building your balance. Because it’s true what they tell you at commencement: Your future is bright. And now is the time to start investing in it.

BIRTHDAYS THIS WEEK – Birthday wishes and thoughts this week to Bryan Best …famous father and technology guru; Larry David (71) Beverly Hills, CA.; Huey Lewis (68) Pebble Beach, CA.; Lisa Looney …. famous volleyball Mom and outstanding teacher; Ringo Starr (78) London, England.

THE WAY WE WERE – A new segment to Rink Rats, some photos of years gone by, submitted to us by some sick individuals desiring to make us look like fools.

Seriously, wonderful memories and special friends.

Left to right: Bill Reid, Bill Dillabough, Ron Harris. Bill Dillabough and Ron Harris are no longer with us, but not a day goes by when they still make us laugh.

Left to right: Ken Brousseau, Murray Cawker, Joe O’Rourke, Dan dePinquertaine, Scott Graham

Left to right: Tom McGuire, Les Bethea, Reggie Dunlop, Scott Morrison, Jim Shatford, Hugh Lappe, Peter Blair, Stephen Whitter, Joe O’Rourke, Bob Gang, Jeff Dillon

These photos were taken from The St. Lawrence University police files.

EXTREME MAKEOVER – General Electric Edition

Well...that's a wrap, folks. GE's  plan to spin-off or offload $20 billion worth of company assets is reaching its conclusion.

The final chapter? Spinning its healthcare business into a separate entity and selling ownership of its oil company, Baker Hughes.

But for those who haven't been reading the beginning chapters, here are the sparknotes:

GE: A once-massive, now-struggling company with a depressed stock price (down 50% last twelve months).

CEO John Flannery: He joined last August, cut dividends, and weaved together the plan to streamline GE's operations.

Businesses that didn't make the cut: Lighting ($2 billion in revenue), Transportation ($4.2 billion), Oil & Gas ($17.2 billion), Healthcare ($19.1 billion).

What GE is left with: Power ($36 billion in revenue), Aviation ($27.4 billion), Renewable Energy ($10.3 billion), Capital ($9.1 billion).

Bottom line: Up until last Tuesday—when it was replaced by Walgreens—GE was the last remaining member of the original Dow Jones. Now, like a phoenix rising from the ashes, GE has been reborn (but as a much, much smaller phoenix).

MARKET WEEK – The first half of the year was full of surprises on Wall Street. Even experts and investors who expected more volatility after a historically calm 2017 were caught off guard by many of the developments inside and outside the markets this year, including the rapid gains stocks made in January, their abrupt descent into a 'correction,' and the ongoing trade tensions that threatened to undo the benefits of the GOP tax overhaul and strong corporate profits.

Still, consumer-focused companies like retailers had a strong start to the year and technology companies continued to rally, while high-dividend stocks, especially phone companies and household goods makers, lagged behind. The Federal Reserve continued to push up short-term interest rates and the dollar rallied, contributing to a sell-off in emerging markets.

U.S. markets: Well, the first half of the year for the markets is over. And? The S&P finished up 1.7%, the Dow dropped 1.8%, the Nasdaq jumped 8.8%, and the Russell 2000 increased 7.1%. With the tax cuts, things could've been better, but with the trade war...things definitely could've been worse.

Inflation: The core inflation rate finally hit a bullseye for the Fed: 2%—the first time in six years.

The IPO market has roared back to life. Companies are raising public capital this year at a pace rarely seen in the past two decades. So far this year, 120 companies have used initial public offerings to raise $35.2 billion on U.S. exchanges. Meanwhile, the M&A market is zooming into record territory.

Dell is nearing a deal that would once again make it a public company. The PC and data-storage giant could make an announcement as early as today that it intends to acquire via share swap the DVMT tracking stock.

Stocks to Watch

General Motors—Down 0.5%: The auto maker warned the Trump administration late in Friday’s session that tariffs on vehicle imports would hurt its competitiveness, cost U.S. jobs and result in “a smaller GM.”

Ford—Down 0.5%: Ford and other car manufacturers are bracing as China prepares to slap an additional 25% tariff on U.S. auto imports Friday.

Facebook—Down 0.8%: The social-media giant late Friday disclosed it gave dozens of companies special access to user data, detailing for the first time a spate of deals that contrasted with the social network’s previous public statements that it restricted personal information to outsiders in 2015.

Target—Unchanged: Target plans to add automatic cash-counting machines to its nearly 2,000 stores starting this summer, following other retailers who are automating more store jobs as labor costs rise.

AMLO - For the first time since 2000, a left-wing candidate from a non-traditional party won the country's presidential election.

His name? Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador. Or as he's better known, AMLO.

AMLO's not your average Mexican politician. He rose to popularity through his nationalist agenda, inflammatory rhetoric, and less-than-friendly approach to trade and foreign investment.

That type of populist mentality is what most Mexicans feel the country needs right now.

44% of Mexico's population live below the poverty line.

Corruption and greed have become all-too-common among elected officials.

While the focus has been on free trade and investment, crime has skyrocketed: 1) Crime is at a 20-year high and 2) 120 local politicians have been killed since elections started in September. Don't mess with the cartel...

So basically, a little more attention on the people could go a long way. And that's exactly what AMLO has in mind.

THANK LA BRON - Lakers-Warriors tickets are about to cost one million dollars for nosebleeds.

SWAMI’S WEEK TOP PICKS

MLB Game of the Week – Saturday July 7; Atlanta Braves (48-34) vs. Milwaukee Brewers (48-35), both teams begin the week in first place in their divisions. We like the Brew Crew to win this one, 8 – 7.

World Cup Soccer (Football)World Cup Soccer (Football) – Group Winners: A - Uruguay | B - Spain | C - France | D - Croatia | E - Brazil | F - Germany | G - Belgium | H - Colombia

Group Runners-Up: A - Egypt | B - Portugal | C - Peru | D - Argentina | E - Costa Rica | F - Mexico | G - England | H – Senegal

Belgium to win over Spain in the Final on July 15 in Moscow.

Season to Date (29 - 17)

ON THIS DATE – On this day July 2, 1962, a struggling retailer from Kingfisher, Okla., opened an 18,000-sq.-ft. discount store in Rogers, Ark. His name was Sam Walton, and he called his store Wal-Mart.

DRIVING THE WEEK - A weird holiday week this year with July 4 falling inconveniently on a Wednesday. When do I work, when do I play? Fourth week of the summer term, we still teach.
Congress is gone for the holiday ... President Trump on Monday meets with the Prime Minister of the Netherlands ... He'll travel to West Virginia on Tuesday and Montana on Thursday ... ISM manufacturing at 10:00 a.m. Monday expected to tick down to 58.5 from 58.7 ... ISM non-manufacturing at 10:00 a.m. Thursday expected to dip to 58.2 from 58.6 ... June jobs report on Friday at 8:30 a.m. expected to show a gain of 195K, unemployment at 3.8 percent and wages up 0.3 percent.

Monday (July 2): The first legal pot store in Massachusetts could be granted a license; Today is known as the most bullish trading day of the year

Tuesday (July 3): NYSE closes early for the holiday

Wednesday (July 4): U.S. Independence Day #242

Thursday (July 5): Anyone got Advil?

Friday (July 6): U.S. and Chinese tariffs go into effect; June jobs numbers

Next Blog: Summer reading and summer travel.

Until next time, Adios

Claremont, California

July 2, 2018
#IX-6-374

CARTOON OF THE WEEK – The New Yorker, Downtime


RINK RATS POLL –
My downtime is?

____ Reading
____ Sleeping
____ Television
____ Alcohol
____ All of the above.

QUOTE OF THE MONTH – " If you obey all the rules, you’ll miss all the fun." – Katherine Hepburn

Rink Rats is a blog of weekly observations, predictions and commentary. We welcome your comments and questions. Also participate in our monthly poll. Rink Rats is now viewed in Europe, Canada, South America and the United States.

Posted at Rink Rats The Blog: First Published – May 3, 2010