Fall Equinox

We are back, this early school year pace has my Blog writing a bit behind, no worries, and we begin the autumn season.

In Southern California the fall season means it is fire season, the freeways are more compacted with school back in session, the Dodger baseball bandwagons are hoping for a World Series title, we all wish the Chargers were still in San Diego, and it seems almost daily we are reading and viewing the growing violence and divisions around the world.

As we move forward to the end of the year, I find the fall season a good time to check in with friends and family I have been neglect in keeping up with and in these chaotic times make sure all is well and at peace.

Plenty of sports in this Fall Equinox Blog, all the other news is too depressing. But more important, hockey season is beginning this week: NHL and College seasons are starting up. Major League Baseball begins their tournament. See our Swami picks below.

WORLD SERIES OR BUST – Way back in April The Swami picked four of the six division winners, the problem is he picked the Detroit Tigers to win the World Series over The Cubbies. Ouch!

Let’s try this again: LA LA Land Dodgers vs. Cleveland Indians in the World Series, Cleveland wins their first World Series since 1948. Laing Kennedy rejoice.

COLLEGE CHRONICLES – University of Southern California assistant basketball coach Tony Bland faces serious federal criminal charges for alleged corruption, bribery, and more.

On the bright side, he’s now a leading candidate to become dean of USC’s medical school.

Annual college rankings: U.S. News & World Report released its annual list of "Best Colleges" rankings on last week, and Princeton University topped the list. College rankings can fuel further economic inequality in higher ed, since the top-ranked colleges are often pricey Ivy League institutions. Bob Morse at U.S. News responded to this observation, saying that rankings aren't the problem: Colleges that burden students with debt and don't support them academically are. Meanwhile, the Chronicle of Higher Education’s were flooded with different colleges' statements about their place in the rankings. But why don't families stop looking at commercial rankings and instead go by standards academe sets for itself?

Academic Leadership Awards: The Carnegie Corporation of New York announced on in September that seven college presidents were each the recipient of a $500,000 Academic Leadership Award to support academic initiatives on their campuses.

Carnegie recognized the presidents for their “excellence in undergraduate education, the liberal arts, equal opportunity, the development of major interdisciplinary programs, international engagement, and the promotion of strong ties between their institutions and their local communities,” according to a news release from the corporation.

The presidents and their institutions are as follows:

Joseph E. Aoun: Northeastern University

Mark P. Becker: Georgia State University

John J. DeGioia: Georgetown University

Nariman Farvardin: Stevens Institute of Technology

Maria Klawe: Harvey Mudd College

DeRionne Pollard: Montgomery College

Barbara R. Snyder: Case Western Reserve University

EQUAL PAY? - The female to male earnings ratio reached 80.5%, the highest ever. However, the gap was closed both by women earning more and men earning less. In dollar terms, the typical man earned $51,640 last year; the average woman received $41,554.

MEDIAN INCOME RISES - U.S. median household income rose in 2016 to $59,039, a 3.2 percent increase over 2015, the Census Bureau reported. But median earnings for men and women who worked full-time over the entire year were essentially unchanged after inflation, with men earning $51,640 and women earning $44,544.

The nation's poverty rate fell to 12.7 percent, returning nearly to what it was in 2007.

But, but, but ... The census report also points to the sources of deeper anxieties among American workers.

Inequality remains high, with the top fifth of earners taking home more than half of all overall income, a record.

The median African American household [earns] only $39,490, compared with more than $65,000 for whites and over $81,000 for Asians.

OUR CONTINUED OBSESSION WITH APPLE - Why iPhones cost so much ... The iPhone X (pronounced "10") will sell for $999 beginning Nov. 3.

That's double what the first iPhone cost a decade ago, and more than any other competing device — as Apple positions itself as "a purveyor of pricey, aspirational gadgets,"

Apple is ... continuing to push its prices higher, even though improvements it's bringing to its products are often incremental or derivative. ... That runs contrary to decades in which high-tech device prices have fallen over time, often dramatically, even as the gadgets themselves acquired new features and powers.

Rival phones — many of them from Samsung — already offer similar displays, facial recognition, augmented reality and wireless charging, if often in cruder forms.

Apple also introduced a TV streaming box that will sell for $179, far more than similar devices, and a smartwatch with its own cellular connection that will cost almost $400. In December, Apple will start selling an internet-connected speaker, the HomePod, priced at $349, nearly twice as much as Amazon's ... Echo.

The premium pricing strategy reflects Apple's long-held belief that consumers will pay more for products that are so well designed that they can't fathom living without them."

More than 1,000 people attended the first public event at Apple's "spaceship" campus on Tuesday September 12, the $5 billion (not a typo) Apple Park.

BIRTHDAYS THIS WEEK – Birthday wishes and thoughts this week to President Jimmy Carter (93); Bill Murray (67); Ava Suffredini …famous niece; belated birthdays to our fond readers – Steve Lesniak, Julius Walecki, and Matthew Witt.

MARKET WEEK – I keep telling my students every term that the bull stock market is coming to end soon, NOT.

It is getting tougher to argue that the bull market is near its end.

In September, U.S. stock benchmarks faced numerous rally-threatening obstacles, from the Federal Reserve’s decision to reduce its balance sheet to escalating rhetoric between the leaders of North Korea and the U.S.

Even so, unruffled investors pushed the S&P 500 to its 39th record of the year Friday. For 2017, the index is up 12.5% after rallying 4% in the third quarter.

Resilient as stocks have been, markets hardly look toppy. A strengthening global economy has bolstered corporate earnings. Rather than dump money heedlessly into stock funds, investors are buying investments such as high-grade corporate bonds. Some $23 billion moved out of U.S. equity funds in the third quarter, while $68 billion went into investment-grade corporate bond funds, according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

“I find a surprising lack of optimism about the outlook for equities,” wrote Byron Wien, vice chairman at Blackstone Advisory Partners, a subsidiary of the Blackstone Group. “The usual factors that warn of a bear market or recession are not evident.”

Sure, there are a number of nagging concerns, but few obvious catalysts to derail the bull market in the coming months. Topping the list of worries for most investors is how central banks will normalize monetary policy after years of extraordinary measures.

But even that is unlikely to upend the bull market soon. Central bankers have mostly telegraphed their next moves. Financial conditions have been easing and economic growth in developed economies looks sturdy. That suggests any market impact may not materialize for months. And it will likely take a few more interest rate increases in the U.S. before costlier borrowing affects the economy or challenges the notion that, for investors, there are few alternatives to owning stocks.

Another threat is that inflation perks up and triggers hawkish central bank policy, roiling bond markets. This too seems distant, as the Fed’s preferred consumer price gauge Friday clocked in well below the 2% target.

While the S&P 500’s price-to-earnings ratio has been elevated for years, using valuations to time the market is notoriously fraught.

Michael Hartnett, chief investment strategist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch, has for months called for a final melt-up rally in risky securities before the market rolls over in spectacular fashion. While he still thinks this scenario will play out, he summed up the current state of markets concisely last week, stating that most investors probably want to stand pat until the path becomes more clear:

“The best reason to be bearish is there is no reason to be bearish.”

DRIVING THE WEEK - Hill Republicans will push forward on a budget with tax reform reconciliation instructions. The House seems solid but the Senate, as ever, could be tougher ... President Trump on Monday hosts a "deregulation summit" and heads to Puerto Rico on Tuesday ...

Former Equifax CEO Rick Smith testifies before before House Energy and Commerce on Tuesday at 10:00 a.m. and Senate Banking Wednesday at 10:00 a.m. ... Wells Fargo CEO Tim Sloan testifies before Senate Banking on Tuesday at 10:00 a.m. ... FHFA Director Mel Watt testifies Tuesday at 10:00 a.m. before House Financial Services ...

Equifax's Smith is before House Financial Services Thursday at 9:15 a.m. ... SEC Chairman Jay Clayton testifies before House Financial Services at 10:00 a.m. on Wednesday ... September jobs report at 8:30 a.m. Friday expected to rise just 75K in the wake of the hurricanes with unemployment at 4.4 percent and earnings up 0.3 percent.

THE NEW REALITY – of old age in America:

People are living longer, more expensive lives, often without much of a safety net. As a result, record numbers of Americans older than 65 are working — now nearly 1 in 5.

Today, 9 million senior citizens work, compared with 4 million in 2000.

Why it matters: Polls show that most older people are more worried about running out of money than dying.

TIRED OF BAD NEWS – here is some good news:

We're wealthier than ever before. Despite growing income inequality and the persistent gender and race gaps in our society, Americans overall are wealthier than they ever have been, including African Americans and Hispanics. There are more rich people and fewer poor people.

We're beating cancer. Researchers have reported a continued decline in overall cancer death rates due to screening, prevention and new treatments.

Teen pregnancies are down 51% from 10 years ago, an extraordinarily fast social change compared to adult smoking, which took 40 years to cut by half. Experts attribute the phenomenon to better use of birth control.

Oil independence: U.S. dependence on foreign oil continues to decrease, with 2016 setting a 30-year low.

The hole in the earth's ozone layer is on the mend with the help of the 1987 Montreal Protocol, which helped phase out ozone-destroying chemicals.

In galaxies far, far away, astronomers say we are entering a new era where we can both see with optical telescopes and hear events occurring deep in space.

Women in Saudi Arabia will be allowed to drive cars for the first time, in June 2018.

In Houston, we witnessed citizens taking boats and jet skis to rescue those stuck in floods after Hurricane Harvey.

The five living presidents, Barack Obama, George W. Bush, Bill Clinton, George H. W. Bush and Jimmy Carter banded together to raise money to aid Hurricane relief efforts in Texas, Florida, Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands.

RINK RATS PRESEASON Ligue Nationale de Hockey PICKS –

WEST-            Pacific: 1. San Jose, 2. Edmonton, 3). Anaheim

                        Central: 1. Chicago, 2. Nashville, 3. Winnipeg

                        Wild Card: 1. Los Angeles, 2. Dallas

                        Conference Champs: San Jose Sharks

EAST -             Atlantic: 1. Tampa Bay, 2. CBOT Ottawa, 3. Montreal

                        Metropolitan: 1. Pittsburgh, 2. Washington, 3. Philadelphia

                        Wild Card: 1. New York Rangers, 2. New York Islanders

                        Conference Champs: Tampa Bay Lightning

                        Stanley Cup Champs: Tampa Bay Lightning

Note: Detroit Red Wings will miss the playoffs for the second straight year, sorry Little Caesars.

SWAMI’S WEEK TOP PICKS –

NFL Football Pick of the Week – Sunday 10/8, 1:05 PM PT, CBS: Seattle Seahawks (2-2) vs. Los Angeles Rams (3-1). The early season battle to see if the LA Rams are for real, they are: Rams 24 – 21 over the Seahawks . (Season to date 3-1).

College Football Pick of the Week – Saturday 10/7, 7:30 PM ET, ABC: Not too many quality college games this weekend, we like (because we will be there) Michigan State Spartans (3-1) vs. #7 University of Michigan Wolverines (4-0). Wolverines have more depth than Sparty, 30 – 20.   (Season to date 3-2)

D-III Football Pick of the Week – Saturday 10/7, 2:00 PM MT: #1 Mary Hardin-Baylor Crusaders (4-0) vs. #6 Hardin-Simmons Cowboys (4-0). The American Southwest Conference, the best D-III football conference in the country has a beauty this Saturday. The Cowboys in an upset 35 – 31.   (Season to date 4-1)

SCIAC Game of the Week (Men’s Football) – Saturday 10/7, 7:00 PM PT: University of La Verne Leopards (2-1) vs. University of Redlands Bulldogs (2-1). Two seasons ago the Leos upset Redlands at Ted Runner Stadium on their way to a SCIAC Championship. Can they do it again, no, Redlands 38 – 28.  (Season to date 5-0)

MLB Game of the Week (10/7) – Game 2 of the National League Divisional Series, Chicago Cubs (92-70) vs. Washington Nationals (97-63). Cubs win, Cubs Win, 5 – 3.

COLLEGE HOCKEY PICK OF THE WEEK – Saturday 10/7, 7:00 PM ET: University of Michigan Wolverines (0-0) vs. St. Lawrence University Saints (0-0). A huge non-conference match up at Appleton Arena, the live stream better be working. Saints win 4-3.  Season to date (0-0)

Season to Date (67 - 37)

ON THIS DATE - in 1938, the iconic Michigan winged helmet saw the gridiron for the first time - (Michigan 14, Michigan State College 0).

Next Blog: What student’s ask.

Until next time, Adios

Claremont, California

October 3, 2017

#VIII-15-357

CARTOON OF THE WEEK – Robert Leighton, The New Yorker