Out and About

We have been busy the last two weeks, traveling, visiting, eating, drinking, you know, Out and About.

A trip via Delta Airlines to the Ann Arbor / Jackson Michigan area to visit family prompted added visits to the Big House to witness Michigan State Spartans whack the University of Michigan, a visit to Dexter, Michigan and the boys who press the apples for wonderful apple cider, and a memorable Michigan fall sunset.

Prior to our trip a wonderful day of friends and terrible golf at the University of La Verne annual golf tournament for student programs at the University. Of course Rink Rats was there in spirit.

Finally, and certainly not least a lovely afternoon at The Raymond 1886 in Pasadena, California with two very famous alumni of St. Lawrence University. These women have won more alumni citations from St. Lawrence than you can count: Pris Schroeder ’56 and Lennie McKinnon ’58. We exchanged hockey and soccer stories, and more importantly caught up with our families and all the news from Canton, N.Y. Simply the best.

SUDDENLY SUSAN – Another discussion item regarding St. Lawrence is the announcement this week of Republican Senator Susan Collins (64) (St. Lawrence ’75) choosing not to run for Governor in her home state of Maine. She has decided to finish her Senate term to 2020.

Though Collins holds sway as one of the chamber's few swing votes, she also faces the frustration of watching her party constantly doing the opposite of what she'd like. ... In the latest Obamacare repeal effort, even after party leaders had written her off as an automatic 'no,' she came under unyielding pressure from the White House.

The discussion at our table at The Raymond was the timing fits perfectly into President Bill Fox’s contract at St. Lawrence ending in the 2020 time frame. Bill Fox has been a great leader, but we could see a possible Susan Collins presidency at St. Lawrence. Stay tuned.

COLLEGE CHRONICLES – On the outskirts of the University of Michigan campus, there's a sight that gives an instantaneous snapshot of how much the area has changed — a sensor-connected car steered by an Xbox controller roams the streets of "M-City" to test self-driving and other connected-car technologies.

Michigan is known for its auto industry expertise but experienced a steep decline a decade ago when Detroit — its biggest city — lost half its population as manufacturing jobs left in droves. Detroit is fighting its way back to build a burgeoning tech scene. Ann Arbor, only 40 minutes away, is taking a complementary path: It's harnessing the university's high-tech talent factory and the state's auto factory history to be at the forefront of next-generation vehicle development.

Self-driving car city: M-City is a public-private partnership in Ann Arbor funded by 70 members including major car manufacturers, chip makers, wireless and insurance companies. Every year, it receives about $1.2 million to research things like how humans will interact with self-driving cars and how cities will need to be designed for them.

Ann Arbor is also wirelessly connected using vehicle-to-vehicle communications technology called DSRC so that intersections and vehicle can communicate with each other.

2,000 privately owned vehicles are "driving" around Ann Arbor broadcasting messages back and forth 10 times a second.

McGuire said a few cars will be deployed on campus next month to research how students, bicycles and other cars interact with them.

TOMMY TROJAN - David Carrera, the University of Southern California's vice president for fund raising, left his position after an internal investigation raised questions about alleged sexual misconduct. This is the latest USC departure related to possible sexual harassment. Last week the medical-school dean, Rohit Varma, was removed over alleged harassment. And in July, Carmen A. Puliafito, Dr. Varma's predecessor as dean, was fired as a faculty member after the Los Angeles Times revealed details of his drug-fueled partying habits. But years before Dr. Puliafito became a dean, warning signs of his behavior and violent episodes were ignored. Read our Jack Stripling's report on what happens when those signs are missed.

I bet it has been fun times in the Human Resources office at USC.

BIRTHDAYS THIS WEEK – Birthday wishes and thoughts this week to Eminem (45) Detroit, MI.; Mike Keenan (68) St. Lawrence ’72; Lindsay Vonn (33), Vail, CO.;  Michelle Wie (28) Orlando, FL.

SHARK TANK - At a few minutes after 5 p.m. on Sunday, Oct. 1, 12-year-old Carson Kropfl logged onto his website, lockerboard.net.

He could hardly believe his eyes. “The website started blowing up,” he said. “It was super cool.”

The reason his website, his Facebook and his Instagram were lighting:  the season premier of ABC-TV’s Shark Tank was under way on the East Coast.

Carson and his mother, Carrie Kropfl, were the first guests on the two-hour show that would air in California three hours later.

Within minutes after 5 p.m., international magnate Richard Branson made Carson an investment offer he couldn’t refuse: $65,000 for 20 percent of Carson’s skateboard company.

“I see a young Richard Branson in you,” Branson said. “You’ve got a wonderful story. You are very articulate. Your product itself is great. We’d love you to give it a shot with us.”

Carson and his mother told prospective investors about the Locker Board, a mini skateboard that Carson designed a year ago. On his first day of middle school, entering the sixth grade, he had learned he had a school locker for the first time but his skateboard wouldn’t fit in it.

By trial and error in his back yard, he shaved down a succession of used skateboard decks until he settled on a design he could slip easily into his backpack and locker. The trick was finding just the right shape to make the mini board capable of kick flips and solid performance.

On Shark Tank, Carson rode up on a Locker Board with his skater friend Sierra Downer to make his pitch to celebrity investors. Branson outbid sports magnate Mark Cuban for a deal with the Shorecliffs Middle School student from San Clemente.

U.S. STILL SHORT ON TEACHERS - America is still short hundreds of thousands of teachers years after the Great Recession created a gap that has only widened since, according to a recent report by the Economic Policy Institute. Per the report, the number of teachers and education staff has failed to get anywhere near its pre-recession level and isn't keeping pace with a growing student population. Public education jobs are down by 128,000 compared to nine years ago, and with growing enrollment added on, the report estimates the country is short some 327,000 teachers.

JAPAN STOCKS HIT 21-YEAR HIGH - Japan still faces deep structural problems. Its population is aging and dwindling. China has stepped up its manufacturing game. Corporate stalwarts like Toshiba and Kobe Steel have stumbled. Investors appear to be looking at the bright side.

Japan's main stock index rose to its highest level in almost 21 years on Wednesday, buoyed by a broad rally in global markets as well as growing optimism about the Japanese economy. The surge came despite the continuing problems at Kobe Steel, a Japanese stock market stalwart. Its shares sank sharply for a second day after revelations that it had falsified data about the quality of aluminum and copper.

MARKET WEEK – The bond market is still playing a central role in the stock market's rise.

Corporate credit downgrades have dropped 42% so far this year, according to S&P Global Ratings. Meantime, the ratings firm says upgrades have climbed 10% versus last year.

This year’s decline is a sign that credit conditions are improving in corporate America even as the Federal Reserve lifts rates. If financial markets continue to be this tame in the face of steadily rising interest rates, cheap borrowing costs could add further fuel to the stock market.

Easy credit has defined the post-crisis recovery. The S&P 500 is up 14% this year, continuing to notch fresh record highs at a rapid clip.

Part of that support for the bull market comes from continued low rates in the Treasury market. Despite repeated calls for the yield on the benchmark 10-year note to rise, it's fallen 0.08 percentage points this year to 2.370% on Friday. The yield premium that investors demand to own corporate bonds over Treasurys has increased a bit in recent weeks but has remained historically low.

Some investors have worried that weakness in the oil and gas sector, which stalled the stock rally in 2015 and early 2016, could continue to impede the market's run if it further eroded those companies' credit. Instead, energy prices have largely stabilized this year, alleviating the stress in many parts of the oil and gas industry. That's helped lower the default rate among companies with speculative grades, many of which are energy firms. That rate dropped to 3.3% in August from 3.5% in July, S&P said in its report.

The environment has remained hospitable to issuers of junk bonds, which have sold 19% more debt this year than last year. Many companies have used the loose conditions to extend out the maturities of their bonds. The amount of debt maturing by the end of 2020 is down by more than a third, while debt maturing in 2021 and 2022 is up 10%, helping companies maintain strong balance sheets.

The lack of market volatility this year could all change, of course. Investors have taken in stride the Fed's plans to trim the size of its balance sheet and keep raising rates, but the market could turn more volatile at any moment. In 2013, for example, yields jumped sharply after the Fed signaled that it planned to curb its bond-buying program. The S&P analysts cited the Fed as one of the "risks on the horizon."

Plus, the political situation in Washington could upend markets as politicians seek to deal with geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and North Korea, as well as an ambitious plan to overhaul the tax code.

But investors and analysts have called for rising rates and tighter financial conditions for years, only to watch them continue to ease. Equity investors hoping for further gains should savor this hallmark of the post-crisis recovery for as long as it lasts.

DRIVING THE WEEK - The House is out. The Senate needs to pass a budget to set the parameters for tax reform. Gonna be close ... President Trump holds a Cabinet meeting on Monday and will lunch with Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell and VP Pence ... On Tuesday, Trump meets with Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras of Greece and speaks on taxes at the Heritage Foundation's President's Club meeting .. Senate Finance members visit the White House on Wednesday ...

Senate Banking has a consumer data security and credit bureau hearing at 10:00 a.m. on Tuesday ... Industrial Production Tuesday at 9:15 a.m. expected to rise 0.3 percent ... Index of Leading Indicators at 10:00 a.m. Thursday expected to rise 0.1 percent.

SWAMI’S WEEK TOP PICKS –

NFL Football Pick of the Week – Sunday 10/22, 5:25 PM PT, NBC: Atlanta Falcons (3-2) visit New England Patriots (4-2), Falcons will cover the spread but Pats still win, 30 – 28. (Season to date 3-3).

College Football Pick of the Week – Saturday 10/21, 7:30 PM ET, ABC: #11 University of Southern California Trojans (6-1) visit #13 University of Notre Dame Fighting Irish (5-1). Huge game for The Irish, they win a close one, 32 – 30.   (Season to date 4-3)

D-III Football Pick of the Week – Saturday 10/21, 1:30 PM PT: The game of the year at Maxwell Field, #21 George Fox (5-1) vs. #7 Linfield Wildcats (4-1), Linfield has too much fire power on offense, 40 – 28.   (Season to date 5-2)

SCIAC Game of the Week (Women Soccer) – Saturday 10/21, 7:00 PM PT: First place is on the line in this one, California Lutheran SATs (10-2-2) vs. University of La Verne Leopards (9-2-3). The Leos are for real this year, 2 – 1.   (Season to date 6-1)

College Hockey Pick of the Week – Saturday 10/21, 7:30 PM ET: #9 Providence College Friars (2-1-0) vs. #15 Clarkson University Golden Knights (3-0-1). They will be 3,000 strong at Cheel Arena for this inter-conference puck drop, though I hate to say it, Golden Knights win 4 – 3.  Season to date (0-2)

NHL Pick of the Week – Saturday 10/21, 7:00 PM ET: Pittsburgh Penguins (3-2-1) vs. Tampa Bay Lightning (4-1-0), Lightning playing good hockey in the early going, 4 – 3. Season to date (1-0).

Season to Date (71 - 44)

ON THIS DATE – September 28, 1972, THE GOAL. What more can be said about Paul Henderson's heroics that has not been said time and time again? In the Summit Series against the Soviet Union.

He scored the game winning goals in game 6, game 7 and of course game 8. And he will be forever immortalized in hockey history as he scored on what is arguably the greatest hockey moment ever.

Next Blog: What student’s ask. Reminder Finder.

Until next time, Adios

Claremont, California

October 16, 2017

#VIII-16-358

CARTOON OF THE WEEK – Trevor Spaulding, The New Yorker