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Republicans, all tied up in knots |
WILL
THE FED PULL THE PLUG TOO SOON? - Federal Reserve Open Markets
committee today is expected to starting winding down its "quantitative
easing" asset purchase program with estimates for the taper running from
$5 billion to $20 billion out of the current $85 billion monthly pace. Given
how clearly the Fed has telegraphed its intentions almost no one is expecting
the Fed to keep up the current pace. Economic data isn't great but it's not likely
weak enough to prevent the taper. The big question is whether the Fed takes
away the juice just as the federal government heads for a possible shutdown and
debt-ceiling crisis. The double whammy of the taper and a Hill meltdown could
hit stocks and the economy fairly hard.
The Fed obviously pays attention to the fiscal follies on
the Hill. But are Ben Bernanke and his colleagues betting too hard on another
round of last second deals? At least the prospect of a Fed Chair confirmation
fight appears to be over. Current Fed Vice Chair Janet Yellen appears highly
likely to get the nod, according to White House sources. And she's likely to
get through the Senate fairly easily. And a potentially destabilizing bombing
campaign in Syria also appears to be off the table for now. And expect the Fed
to wrap its taper in all kinds of reassuring language about how it could dial
up purchases right away if needed. Still, today is likely to mark the beginning
of a risky run in the waning months of the Bernanke Fed.
TECH
BLAST: BLACKBERRY TO GO PRIVATE - BlackBerry has agreed to be
bought by a consortium of Canadian investment companies for $4.7bn in cash and
taken private, in a last-ditch move to ensure the survival of one of the
pioneers of the global smartphone ... BlackBerry ... has seen its market value
plummet from a peak of $83bn in 2008 to just $4.2bn ... The bid comes in the
wake of BlackBerry's admission on Friday that its turnround strategy - based on
the launch of a new operating system and handsets - had failed and that it
would abandon the consumer market with the loss of 4,500 jobs and report a $1bn
operating loss in the latest quarter.
The consortium is led by Prem Watsa's Fairfax Financial,
which holds a 10 percent stake in the Ontario-based group. Mr Watsa, an
investor who has been called Canada's Warren Buffett, quit BlackBerry's board
last month when the company announced that it had set up a special committee to
investigate its strategic options. His move was widely interpreted at the time
as indicating that he would try to pull together a consortium including some of
Canada's leading pension funds to buy out the struggling company.
CHRYSLER
(RELUCTANTLY) FILES FOR IPO - Chrysler filed for a public stock offering
last Monday, acting only under pressure from its second-largest shareholder, a
trust set up to provide medical coverage for 115,000 retired autoworkers ...
Ordinarily, Chrysler's plan would be cause to celebrate the automaker's
comeback from its government bailout and bankruptcy in 2009. But it is acting
only after negotiations stalled between Fiat, which controls Chrysler, and the
trust over the purchase of the trust's minority stake in Chrysler. The offering
could be canceled if Fiat and the trust reach a deal. ... Chrysler's offering
arises from an unusual conflict of interests, made possible by the remarkable
turnaround at Chrysler since the federal government shepherded it through
bankruptcy four years ago.
BIRTHDAYS
THIS WEEK – Birthday wishes and thoughts this week to: Lorraine
Bracco (59), President Jimmy Carter (89), Angie Dickinson (82), David Hidalgo
(50), Steve Lesniak …famous wine Sommelier, Steve Miller (70), Eilsabeth Shue
(50).
SPORTS
BLINK - NFL TEAMS THAT HAVEN'T LOST YET (4-0): New England Patriots,
Miami Dolphins (3-0; play at New Orleans Saints on "Monday Night
Football" tonight; 8:30 on ESPN), Denver Broncos, Kansas City Chiefs,
Seattle Seahawks
--NFL TEAMS THAT HAVEN'T WON YET: (0-4): Pittsburgh
Steelers, Jacksonville Jaguars, New York Giants, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
COLLEGE
FOOTBALL - Top 25 "Ballot Breakdown: Arizona State ushers out
Kiffin era at USC ... Notre Dame out of AP Top 25; Arizona State, [Maryland]
in. No. 22 Arizona State moved into the
AP Top 25 -- and helped move Lane Kiffin out of a job as Southern California
coach. ... For the third consecutive week, the top five teams in the AP Top 25
were unchanged. No. 1 Alabama received 55 first-place votes from the media
panel. No. 2 Oregon received the other five. Clemson is No. 3 followed by Ohio
State and Stanford. ... Notre Dame is not ranked for the first time this
season, following a 35-21 loss at home to No. 11 Oklahoma. The Sooners moved up
three spots and are now the highest-ranked Big 12 team. .... Georgia moved up
three spots to No. 6, but don't blame Bulldogs fans if they're feeling their
team is still under appreciated. No team has played a more difficult September
schedule ... No. 25 Maryland (4-0) is ranked for the first time since the final
poll of the 2010 season.
COLLEGE
FOOTBALL PICK OF THE WEEK – Saturday 10/5, 10:30 PM ET,
ESPN; #15 Washington Huskies (4-0) vs. #5 Stanford Cardinal (4-0). Pac 12 play
begins with a big one in Palo Alto, Stanford 32 Washington 30. Season
to date (5-0)
SMALL
COLLEGE FOOTBALL PICK OF THE WEEK – Saturday 10/5, 4:30 PM ET,
BRAVO; #10 Pacific Luthern Lutes (3-0) visit #2 Linfield Wildcats (3-0) in a
HUGE Northwest Conference match-up. Linfield 45 Pacific Lutheran 40 in a shoot
out. Season
to date (3-1)
NFL
PICK OF THE WEEK – Sunday 10/6, 1:00 PM ET, Fox; Seattle Seahawks
(4-0) vs. Indianapolis Colts (3-1). Back to back weeks on the road for Pete
Carroll's crew will be too much – Colts 24 Seahawks 17. Season
to date (4-0)
THE SWAMI’S
WEEK TOP PICKS –
(NCAA, Oct. 5) #4 Ohio State Buckeyes (5-0) 34 #16
Northwestern Wildcats (4-0) 28
(SCIAC game of the week, Oct. 5) Redlands Bulldogs (0-2) 42 Occidental Tigers (1-1) 21
(NHL, Oct. 5) Boston Bruins (0-0) 5 Detroit Red Wings (0-0) 2
(MLB, Oct. 5) Oakland Athletics (96-66) 6 Detroit Tigers
(93-69) 3
(NFL, Oct. 6) Denver Broncos (4-0) 35 Dallas Cowboys (2-2) 20
Season
to date (26-20)
96th
NATIONAL HOCKEY LEAGUE SEASON – The NHL begins this week here
are Rink Rats preseason picks:
Pacific Division – Los Angeles Kings
Central Division – St. Louis Blues
Metropolitan Division – Pittsburgh Penguins
Atlantic Division – Boston Bruins
Stanley Cup Finalists – Los Angeles Kings vs. Boston Bruins
2014
Stanley Cup Champions – Los Angeles Kings
MARKET
WEEK - The threat of an imminent government shutdown is foremost on
the minds of investors this morning, as currently reflected in U.S. stock index
futures. Both the Dow and the S&P 500 are coming off their first weekly
losses in four weeks, although the Nasdaq did manage to eke out a small gain to
run its weekly winning streak to four. With one trading day left in the month,
the major averages are all on track to register solid September gains in what's
historically been the weakest month of the year for U.S. stocks.
DRIVING
THE WEEK - All about the shutdown with the Senate coming back this
afternoon to dispense with the House CR passed over the weekend including the
one-year Obamacare delay and other provisions Democrats won't accept. Senate
could ping-pong the CR back the House with just hours left before a shutdown.
House Republicans could then either force a shutdown or pass a temporary
measure of a few days to allow more time to reach an agreement. That's likely
only to happen if some talks toward an agreement actually exist. ... President
Obama meets with this morning with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
Also expect Obama to use the power of his bully pulpit to
again slam Republicans for threatening a shutdown over health care reform ...
ISM manufacturing at 10 a.m. on Tuesday should be little changed from August's
55.7 ... ISM non-manufacturing at 10 a.m. Thursday expected to dip to 56 from
57 ... September jobs report at 8:30 a.m. Friday, assuming its not stopped by a
shutdown, expected to show a gain of 180K with no change to the 7.3 percent
jobless rate.
Next
week: Jack Ass of the Month.
Until Next Monday, “Adios.”
Claremont, CA
September 30, 2013
#IV-24, 181
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