It is that time of year where Rink Rats has a summer break: the
next two weeks we will have two guest bloggers. Enjoy, we will see you on
August 31 with our regular Rats.
The Republican Party is in total chaos. Democrats aren’t
there yet but may be approaching the neighborhood. It’s time to acknowledge
that our political system simply isn’t doing its job.
Once again, following the first debate and its messy
aftermath, the GOP establishment confidently predicts that the Donald Trump
phenomenon is over, done with, finished, kaput. Why, he picked a fight with
popular Fox News anchor Megyn Kelly! He bluffed his way through the debate with
rhetoric and showmanship rather than policy positions! His campaign
organization is in turmoil! He wouldn’t even pledge to support the eventual
Republican nominee!
By any traditional measure, Trump is not a viable candidate.
Yet he continues to dominate news coverage of the campaign, and thus far there
is no indication that his transgressions have caused the plunge in his poll
numbers that party pooh-bahs so eagerly anticipate.
As Buffalo Springfield once sang, “There’s something
happening here. What it is ain’t exactly clear.” (Ask your parents, kids.)
By one early measure — an online poll for NBC News conducted
by the SurveyMonkey firm — Trump maintained his big lead following the debate,
with Sen. Ted Cruz (Tex.) and retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson vaulting into
second and third place; businesswoman Carly Fiorina, who dominated the
undercard debate, reportedly leapt into the middle of the pack. The numbers in
the SurveyMonkey poll are less important than the trend lines: So-called
“protest candidates” are capturing voters’ imaginations in a way that
establishment candidates are not.
Trump, Fiorina and Carson have never held elective office;
the basis of their appeal is that they are not professional politicians. Cruz
has spent his time in Washington ostentatiously declining to play politics as
usual, recently going so far as to call his own majority leader a liar.
At this point, it is fair to say that a significant portion
of the party has lost faith in the GOP establishment. It’s also fair to say
that this has little or nothing to do with where candidates stand on the
issues.
Trump made his initial mark in this campaign with
demagoguery about illegal immigration. But with the exception of Jeb Bush, the
other GOP contenders have basically the same position: Seal off the border with
Mexico, if necessary by erecting a physical barrier.
Carson has compared the Affordable Care Act to slavery. No
other Republican in the race uses such over-the-top language, but they all
pledge to repeal Obamacare. Cruz vehemently opposes the Iran nuclear agreement.
All the Republican candidates feel the same way. Fiorina wants to shrink
bloated government. Everybody else does, too.
The irony is that the Republican field includes several
candidates who, in theory, could be formidable in the general election. Bush
and Sen. Marco Rubio are both from Florida, a state the GOP basically must win
to have any chance in the Electoral College. Ohio Gov. John Kasich or Wisconsin
Gov. Scott Walker theoretically might be able to pry one or more of the
Midwestern industrial states out of Democratic hands.
But the process of quelling the Trump-led insurgency is
already boxing the whole field into absolutist positions that will be difficult
for the eventual nominee to soften. The longer chaos reigns, I believe, the
less room the GOP candidate will have to maneuver.
All of this should make Hillary Clinton very happy. But the
Democratic Party and its likely nominee have problems of their own.
To be sure, I’d much rather be playing Clinton’s hand than
anybody else’s in either party. In the RealClearPolitics polling averages, she
leads her closest opponent for the nomination, Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont,
by 35 points — and beats every one of her potential GOP opponents in
hypothetical head-to-head matchups.
One problem, however, is that her favorability has been
going down, according to polls. Another is that while Sanders has made few
discernible inroads with key parts of the Democratic Party coalition —
especially African Americans and Latinos — he is within striking distance of
Clinton in the first two caucus and primary states, Iowa and New Hampshire.
Sanders is drawing big, passionate crowds, and I believe one
reason is that he, too, is kind of an anti-politician — a man who unabashedly
labels himself a socialist and refuses to tailor his views to please a given
audience.
Significant numbers of voters seem to be demanding
authenticity, passion and rough edges from a nominating process designed to
produce none of the above. To state the obvious, this could be a wild and
unpredictable ride.
Eugene
Robinson, Op-Ed writer, The Washington Post
BIRTHDAYS
THIS WEEK – Birthday wishes and thoughts this weekend to: Russell Baker (90) Washington, D.C., Halle Berry (49) Beverly Hills, CA., David Crosby (74) Monterey, CA., Tim Hutton (55), Studio City, CA., Mark Knopfler (66) London, England
THE
SWAMI’S WEEK TOP PICKS –
Preseason NCAA College Football Top Ten – 1). Ohio State
Buckeyes, 2). Auburn Tigers, 3). TCU Horned Frogs, 4). Michigan State Spartans, 5). Oregon Ducks, 6). Georgia Bulldogs, 7). Notre Dame Fighting
Irish, 8). Ole Miss Rebels, 9). Arizona Wildcats, 10). USC Criminals. All teams began training camp last week.
Preseason SCIAC Football Top Four – 1). Chapman Panthers, 2). Redlands Bulldogs, 3). La Verne Leopards, 4). Cal Lutheran Kingsmen – Teams report at
the end of the week to their preseason camps.
Season
to date (64-34)
Next
week: Guest Blog the next week, Rink Rats is on vacation. We will
be back on August 31.
Until Next Monday, Adios.
Claremont, CA
August 17, 2015
#VI-11-273
CARTOON
OF THE WEEKEND – P.
Aboudante
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