In the Chinese calendar, 2017 marks the Year of the Rooster.
According to the Chinese calendar, 2017 is the Year of the
Rooster. To be more accurate, it is the Year of the Fire Rooster as fire is the
governing element of the two year-period corresponding to the year 4715 within
the chronology of the Chinese calendar. The last Year of the Fire Rooster
occurred in 1957.
Within the Chinese Zodiac, the Rooster occupies the 10th
position and symbolizes a confident, motivated and, at times, pompous
character. Those born under the Zodiac sign of the Rooster are confident,
courageous and active individuals. Despite being rather blunt when offering an
opinion, people with the Zodiac sign of the Rooster are loyal, proud and
trustworthy, expecting the same benevolent honesty from friends. According to
the Chinese calendar, the Rooster is very sociable and likes to be the center
of attention in a social environment. In their continual search for attention
from others, they sometimes run the risk of being considered annoying.
Can someone say, “Paul Gallagher”.
The Year of the Fire Rooster will begin on 28th January 2017
and finish on 15th February 2018, marking the beginning of the Year of the Dog.
It is a particularly special year as it has one month more
(13 months in total) than the rest of the years. This month (闰月,
rùnyuè) was added to the Chinese calendar to balance the lunar months with the
annual solar calendar.
LOOKING
AHEAD TO 2017 – Rink Rats predictions for the year ahead what
to expect in 2017: If left only to domestic drivers, the US economy would
likely experience a pickup in both growth and inflation in 2017, together with
further job creation and broader and higher wage growth. In the process, the
policy stance would pivot from excessive reliance on monetary policy to include
greater use of fiscal measures and structural reforms.
But for these domestic developments to prevail and also lead
to genuine financial stability, it also matters what other countries do -
particularly, China, Germany and Japan. Absent concurrent pro-growth policy
adjustments there, the prospects for better US economic performance and higher
Fed interest rates would lead to further dollar strengthening, and this from a
level that is already at 2003 highs. Such excessive dollar appreciation would
risk undermining growth while increasing the risk of protectionism.
The United States Presidency, though I am sorry to say this,
will become a joke in 2017, leading to an impeachment trial in late 2018.
The business model of higher education will continue to
collapse, with rising costs, strategies that are twenty years old, and debt
limits of consumers reaching their limits.
The Detroit Red Wings will not make the playoffs, the
Toronto Maple Leafs will make the playoffs, and the Pittsburgh Penguins will
repeat as Stanley Cup Champs.
IT'S A
NEW YEAR, STATES EDITION: For Pennsylvanians and Michiganders, 2017
means a higher gas tax. (Floridians now face a very slight gas tax increase,
stemming from an automatic cost-of-living adjustment.) New Jersey's gas tax
hike last year will mean a larger tax exemption for retirement income for
Garden State seniors, a more robust Earned Income Tax Credit, a lower sales tax
and a phasing out of the estate tax, starting this year. And while California's
reputation might be for high taxes, Golden State residents actually got
themselves a tax cut for 2017: a 0.25 percent decrease in the sales tax.
Finally, don't forget this: That Philadelphia soda tax,
which even became an issue in last year's Democratic presidential primary, went
live on Sunday, too.
NEW
YEAR'S RESOLUTIONS: Pet more dogs ... To help promote a renewed
respect for evidence and facts - and accept those that might not be in sync
with my own world view. ... Find time for more recreational reading and travel
to a new state and/or country ... Allocate a limited amount of time per day to
social media so it does not demand too much time…Change all my passwords... A
healthy and happy family. Finally, to do what I can to rid the world of two
things: reply all email and me, myself, and I social media hype.
BIRTHDAYS
THIS WEEK – Birthday wishes and thoughts this week to Jimmy Buffett
(70) Key Largo, FL.; Robert Duvall
(86) Austin, TX.; January Jones (39) Malibu, CA.; Nigella Lawson (57) London, England; Nancy Lopez (60) Orlando, FL.; Walter Mondale (89) Scottsdale, AZ.; Charlie Rose (75) New York, NY.
WHAT TO
FREAK OUT ABOUT IN 2017 - Geopolitics tops the list including the
rise of Donald Trump and a weakened German Chancellor Angela Merkel: This year
marks the most volatile political risk environment in the postwar period, at
least as important to global markets as the economic recession of 2008.
The world's sole superpower was once the international trump
card, imposing order to force compromise and head off conflict. Now it's a
wildcard. Instead of creating policies designed to bolster global stability,
President-elect Donald Trump will use US power overwhelmingly to advance US
interests, with little concern for the broader impact ... Rivals like Russia
and China will test. US-led institutions will lose more of their international
clout.
Emails: on average an American office worker sends and
receives roughly 120 emails per day, a number that grows each passing year. The
ubiquity and utility of email has turned it into a fine-grained record of our
day-to-day lives, rich with mundane and potentially embarrassing details,
stored in a perpetual archive, accessible from anywhere on earth and protected,
in some cases, by nothing more than a single password. Just ask the Democrats.
TRUMP
CORRECTION AHEAD? - Some market watchers are getting worried that
the post-election market rally may be coming to a close. The Dow's failure to
break the 20,000 mark to close the year at first sparked the concern. Stocks
opened 2017 on a positive note but the Dow once again closed well short of 20K.
A late 2016 increase in volatility - may presage a
significant market decline of seven to 10 percent early this year. The last
three years all saw tough starts followed by recoveries later as U.S. growth
improved.
The uncertainty in the market on the opening day of this
year is higher than it was in either 2015 or 2016 especially given the
geopolitical risks with a Trump presidency. We haven't seen an incoming
president this detached from political experience before particularly on the
global stage. ... There is also the prospect of the politicization of monetary
policy. And the domestic political impact of Trump's policy is yet to be seen,
how it's really going to work. ... So we have a pause here based on those
things. ...
Why I am concerned is because I've looked at how we've
historically closed out and began recent years ... And this is sort of a
similar situation with fear jumping into market at the last minute after the Trump
rally. ... And we have more uncertainty now than last year or the year before.
3 ways
to prime a portfolio with ETFs for 2017
Building a portfolio can be a daunting task, especially at an economic and political
turning point like now. Here are three things that investors can consider doing
to start the new year.
The swirl around the U.S. election pulled the markets
sharply into its vortex. The surprise came in the intensity, scope and
direction of the trading activity. Most notably, the weeks following the
election saw the birth of the “Trump put,” in which economic optimism buoyed
U.S. stocks to record highs, while taking down once-loved sectors like bonds
and emerging markets.
As we’ve seen in previous periods of intense trading,
exchange traded funds (ETFs) once again stepped in to provide investors with
orderly, efficient portfolio repositioning. On November 9, the day following
the election, ETF trading volume doubled, to 3.2 billion shares, according to
Bloomberg; that week, U.S. stock ETFs absorbed flows of $27 billion, a record.
Given this past year’s tumult, what should investors look
for in the months ahead? The recent market frenzies, while dramatic, have
simply brought to the surface investment themes that have been percolating for
some time—around global growth, interest rates, corporate earnings and
ultimately how much return you should expect for your risk.
We can’t know exactly how and when these themes will play
out, but there are steps you can consider to potentially position yourself for
success. Here are three investment ideas and ways to consider when executing
with ETFs:
1. Welcome back, inflation
The ongoing trend toward reflation—rising wages, higher core
inflation, a strengthening dollar and stabilizing oil prices—may be accelerated
by Trump’s win.
Investment Idea: Think about hedging across asset classes,
including Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS), real estate and
cyclical stock sectors that may benefit from potential economic growth and a
steeper yield curve. Consider iShares TIPS Bond ETF (TIP), iShares Core U.S.
REIT ETF (USRT), and iShares Mortgage Real Estate Capped ETF (REM).
2. Get granular with your emerging markets
Despite the post-election volatility in emerging markets
(EMs), a strategic weighting to the overall asset class may make sense both as
a diversifier and a potential return enhancer. However, there’s increasing
divergence among emerging economies, which can get lost in the China-heavy
broad EM index.
Investment Idea: Single country ETFs can complement a
broader allocation by helping to pinpoint specific opportunities; we currently
favor EM Asia, for example. You might also look at Saudi Arabia, which is
implementing market reforms and targeting inclusion in the MSCI EM Index in
2017. Consider iShares MSCI India ETF (INDA), iShares MSCI Indonesia ETF (EIDO)
and iShares MSCI Saudi Arabia Capped ETF (KSA).
3. Reduce “bad” taxes as close to zero as possible
We believe stock markets are in for an extended period of
subpar returns, even with the recent rally. That means minimizing costs is more
important than ever. Make this the year to be tax-smart by aiming to reduce
capital gain distributions that are triggered when fund managers realize a
profit on the sale of a security. Regardless of your fund’s return, you can owe
taxes on it.
Investment Idea: ETFs in general are structurally
tax-efficient and have lower turnover than actively managed mutual funds.
(iShares is especially tax-conscious: just 3% of our ETFs distributed cap gains
over the past five years, according to Morningstar data as of 11/12/2015. Past
distributions are not indicative of future distributions.) Accentuate “good”
taxes instead, namely those with a cash benefit to you. Think potentially
higher-yielding ETFs such as dividend growth and preferred stocks. Consider
iShares U.S. Preferred Stock ETF (PFF) and iShares Core Dividend Growth ETF
(DGRO).
If one thing is certain right now, it’s that we’re truly at
an economic and political turning point. In the face of such major change,
building a portfolio may feel daunting—like dressing in the dark and hoping you
come out reasonably put together. Fortunately, there are things investors can
do to shed some light on the markets and start the year buttoned-up.
5 most
important things for stocks in 2017:
1. Earnings
2. Guidance
3. Trump / GOP Plans (taxes, etc)
4. Oil
5. Fed
NYT's
"52 Places to Go in 2017: 1. Canada ... 2. Atacama
Desert, Chile ... 3. Agra, India ... 4. Zermatt, Switzerland ... 5.
Botswana." http://nyti.ms/2iLrdrL
GOOD
READS - "1999 Was The Last Time Everything Was Fine,"
by BuzzFeed's Doree Shafrir: "When I moved to New York City after college
in 1999, it felt like anything was possible. But things were about to change
more quickly than anyone knew." http://bzfd.it/2hYJceH
"How to Sleep," by James Hamblin in the Jan/Feb
issue of The Atlantic: "Should you drink more coffee? Should you take
melatonin? Can you train yourself to need less sleep? A physician's guide to
sleep in a stressful age." http://theatln.tc/2hLfRns
POTUS WEEK AHEAD -- On Monday, the President
will attend meetings at the White House. On Tuesday, the President will travel
to Chicago, Illinois to deliver his farewell address to the American people,
where he will thank his supporters, celebrate the ways we have changed this
country for the better these past eight years, and offer some thoughts on where
we all go from here. The First Lady, the Vice President and Dr. Biden will also
attend. On Wednesday, Thursday and Friday, the President will attend meetings
at the White House.
ALUMNI
- Martha
MacCallum (St. Lawrence ’86) will succeed Tucker Carlson at 7 p.m., per Fox.
MacCallum will anchor a program called "The First 100 Days,"
chronicling the first 100 days of the Trump administration. She will also
co-anchor inauguration coverage for Fox. Shannon Bream will succeed MacCallum
as co-anchor of "Happening Now," alongside Bill Hemmer.
NFL
GAME OF THE WEEK – Sunday 1/15, 4:40 PM ET, Fox: Green Bay Packers
(10-6) vs. Dallas Cowboys (13-3),
upset of the weekend, maybe not but we think Packers will win in Dallas, 32 – 24. Season to date (14-3)
COLLEGE
FOOTBALL BOWL PICK OF THE WEEK – Monday 1/9, 8:00 PM ET, ESPN;
National Championship Game - #2
Clemson Tigers (13-1) vs. #1 Alabama Crimson Tide (14-0). Tide rule again, a
true dynasty, 34 – 22. Season to date (12-5)
THE
SWAMI’S WEEK TOP PICKS –
(NFL, Jan. 14) Seattle Seahawks (11-5-1) at Atlanta Falcons
(11-5), Falcons win this divisional playoff game, 24 – 21.
(NFL, Jan. 14) Houston Texans (10-7) at New England Patriots
(14-2), not much to say, Pats win 30 –
10.
(NFL, Jan. 15) Pittsburgh Steelers (12-5) at Kansas City
Chiefs (12-4), Steelers in an upset, 27
– 21.
Season
to Date (7 – 1)
DRIVING
THE WEEK - Confirmation festivities kick off Tuesday with
Jeff Sessions for Attorney General and Gen. John F. Kelly for Homeland
Security. Wednesday will feature as many as five including Elaine Chao
(Transportation), Rex Tillerson (State), Betsy DeVos (Education) and Rep. Mike
Pompeo (CIA). Carson (HUD), Wilbur Ross (Commerce) and Andrew Puzder (Labor)
are scheduled for Thursday.
House Rules Committee on Monday at 5:00 p.m. is scheduled to
make a rule on H.R.5, the "Regulatory Accountability Act of 2017" and
H.R.79, the "Helping Angels Lead Our Startups Act." ... JOLTS Report
on Tuesday at 10:00 a.m. expected to show dip to 5,500K from 5,534K ... Retail
Sales at 8:30 a.m. Friday expected to rise 0.6 percent headline and 0.5 percent
ex-autos ... Univ. Michigan Consumer Sentiment at 10:00 a.m. Friday expected to
dip to 98.0 from 98.5.
Next
Blog: Ten Questions.
Until Next Time, Adios.
Claremont, California
January 9, 2017
#VII-30-332
CARTOON
OF THE WEEK –The New
Yorker, Paul Noth
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