Our RR Super Bowl Edition, very little content on the Super Bowl
though. We feel not too much excitement over Super Bowl 51: Patriots have a
great organization but they cheat, Tom Brady is too perfect, Bill Belichick
needs a personality transplant, Atlanta Falcons who???
Lady Gaga will say something rude about our new President at
her halftime show, the commercials will be cute but not memorable, the game
commentators will talk too much, and as always we will be left saying, “Why did
I waste five hours to watch this nonsense.”
Our prediction is later in the blog.
Super Bowls are known for blowouts, but Vegas and sports
pundits see Sunday's Brady Bowl in Houston as being close:
Sports Illustrated picks New England Patriots over Atlanta
Falcons, 35-30.
ESPN The Magazine says Pats have a 55.6% chance of winning --
and projects a 1.8-point margin.
Nate Silver's FiveThirtyEight gives New England a bigger edge
-- a 61% chance of winning.
In USA Today's special Super Bowl 51 magazine, four of seven
sportswriters go Brady.
SUPER
BOWL INDICATOR - An indicator based on the belief that a Super
Bowl win for a team from the American Football Conference (AFC) foretells a
decline in the stock market for the coming year, and a win for a team from the
National Football Conference (NFC), or the old National Football League (NFL)
before the merger of NFL and American Football League (AFL) in 1966, means the
stock market will be up for the year. The Super Bowl indicator was first
introduced in 1978 by Leonard Koppett, a sportswriter for The New York Times.
Though historically speaking the Super Bowl indicator boasts
an 80% accuracy rate, remember the old maxim: correlation does not imply
causation. In 2008, despite the New York Giants (NFC) winning the Super Bowl
(indicating a Bull Market), the stock market suffered one of the largest downturns
since the Great Depression. Though the indicator is an interesting take on
predicting the stock market, by no means should the correlation dictate an
individual's portfolio construction.
TRUMP'S
INHERITED DEBT LOAD - Via the Committee for a Responsible Federal
Budget: As President Trump enters his first full week in office, new
Congressional Budget Office (CBO) projections show that he faces an
unsustainable fiscal path. President Trump enters office with debt held by the
public as a share of [GDP] higher than at the start of any presidency other
than Truman's.
And according to CBO's Budget and Economic Outlook, debt under
current law is projected to continue to rise unsustainably in future years.
POTUS DAY -
President Trump, who flew across the country on hundreds of nights during the
2016 campaign to sleep in his own bed, has now spent five straight days in the
unfamiliar surroundings of the White House. His aides said privately that he
seemed apprehensive about the move to his new home, but Mr. Trump has
discovered there is a lot he likes. 'These are the most beautiful phones I've
ever used in my life,' Mr. Trump said in a telephone interview Tuesday evening.
'The world's most secure system,' he added, laughing. 'The words just explode
in the air.' What he meant was that no one was listening in and recording his
words. ...
"He rises before 6 a.m., watches television tuned to a
cable channel first in the residence, and later in a small dining room in the
West Wing, and looks through the morning newspapers: The New York Times, The
New York Post and now The Washington Post. ... But his meetings now begin at 9
a.m., earlier than they used to, which significantly curtails his television
time. Still, Mr. Trump, who does not read books, is able to end his evenings
with plenty of television. In between, Mr. Trump signs executive orders in the
Oval Office and has meetings in the West Wing."
NIXON
PART DEUX - On the morning after Donald Trump's inauguration, acting
National Park Service director Michael T. Reynolds received an extraordinary
summons: The new president wanted to talk to him. In a Saturday phone call,
Trump personally ordered Reynolds to produce additional photographs of the
previous day's crowds on the Mall, according to three individuals who have
knowledge of the conversation. The president believed that the photos might
prove that the media had lied in reporting that attendance had been no better
than average. Trump also expressed anger over a retweet sent from the agency's
account, in which side-by-side photographs showed far fewer people at his
swearing-in than had shown up to see Barack Obama's inauguration in 2009.
COLLEGE
CHRONICLES – Big Blue is Big Green:
The University of Michigan is the first public institution ever to pay
three assistant football coaches more than $1 million each in one year.
College
Admissions: The admissions process must evolve, all the
experts said. The big question was: "How?"
At an annual conference hosted this week in Los Angeles by the
University of Southern California's Center for Enrollment Research, Policy, and
Practice, many conversations concerned the ever-present tension between the
numbers (grades and test scores) that so often define merit in admissions and
the many personal qualities (like leadership and determination) that can't be
quantified easily.
Or can they? Admissions, long described as a mix of art and
science, is tilting ever more toward science, which some insiders said could
help — not hurt — preserve the humanity of the process. Is there a more
systematic way to reveal talent and potential within a pool of increasingly
diverse high-school students? A more efficient yet more thoughtful means of
plucking students from a sea of applicants? Definitely, many speakers said. But
in a realm of tight budgets and relentless competition, innovation is hard.
"There seems to be an interest in change," said
Arlene Wesley Cash, vice president for enrollment management at Guilford
College. "But sometimes we fall back on what's easy and comfortable. We
now have an opportunity to turn ourselves out of our comfort zone."
Moment of
Veritas: Harvard
University plans to outsource management of most of its assets and lay off
about half of Harvard Management Co.’s 230 employees, as new endowment chief
N.P. “Narv” Narvekar radically overhauls the way the school invests its $35.7
billion endowment. Internal hedge funds will be shut down and traders let go by
the middle of the year, with other layoffs by year-end. Harvard’s endowment is
by far the largest in the eight-school Ivy League, but its annualized return
for the 10 years ended last June 30 ranks next-to-last, at 5.7%, and it lost
money in 2016.
Harvard University’s endowment plans to outsource management
of most of its assets and lay off roughly half the staff, in a radical overhaul
of the way the world’s wealthiest school invests its money.
About half the 230 employees at Harvard Management Co. will
leave as part of a sweeping change by the university’s new endowment chief,
N.P. “Narv” Narvekar. The endowment will shut down its internal hedge funds and
let go traders by the middle of the year, with other layoffs occurring by
year-end, Mr. Narvekar said in a Wednesday letter to Harvard endowment
employees, certain alumni and university administrators.
The internal team in charge of direct real-estate investments
is expected to spin out into an independent entity that Harvard is likely to
invest with. Only management of Harvard’s natural resources portfolio and
passively managed investments will remain in house.
The changes are a break with the university’s long-held approach
to managing its wealth. While Yale University and others park nearly all their
money with outside managers, Harvard for decades deployed a “hybrid” approach,
relying in part on its own traders to wager on assets such as stocks and bonds.
It stuck with that model even after incurring deep losses in the 2008-2009
financial crisis, though the amount managed in-house has fluctuated over the
years.
“We can no longer justify the organizational complexity and
resources necessary to support the investing activities of these portfolios,”
Mr. Narvekar said in his letter, referring to the in-house hedge funds.
Harvard’s returns have trailed rivals’ in recent years. The
endowment’s annualized gains of 5.7% over the 10 years ended June 30, 2016 are
second- lowest in the Ivy League and below the comparable 8.1% returns of Yale
University and Columbia University.
The $35.7 billion endowment currently provides more than a
third of Harvard’s operating budget and contributes to the costs of student
financial aid, research and professor salaries.
Mr. Narvekar’s decision to shut Harvard’s internal trading
program reflects the challenges even the most sophisticated institutions face
in actively managing their assets. Some alumni and faculty have criticized
Harvard for paying its traders too much for returns that have lagged Ivy League
peers’. At the same time, others have questioned Harvard’s ability to attract
top talent with pay that is less than what hedge-fund firms can afford.
The moves represent a dramatic start for Mr. Narvekar, 54, who
began in December after 14 years running Columbia University’s endowment.
Harvard’s fourth endowment head in a decade, he arrived with a broad mandate to
boost returns.
BIRTHDAYS THIS WEEK – Birthday wishes and thoughts this week to Christie
Brinkley (63) East Hampton, NY.; Gene
Hackman (87) Santa Barbara, CA.; Eddie
Van Halen (62) Pasadena, CA.; Roxanne
Lewis …famous social scientist; Chief Justice John Roberts (63) Washington, D.C.; Kerry Washington (40) Malibu, CA.
WEATHER
FACT OR FICTION –
Cold weather does not cause colds.
Coffee and alcohol reduce your core temperature.
Sugar drinks help core temperature.
WEDDING
MARCH - It's hard to imagine wedding music without the familiar
strains of Mendelssohn's famous "Wedding March." The tune is so
famous — opening with its regal blast of brass — that it seems like it's been
around forever. But it was 150 years ago that the Wedding March was popularized
for the first time.
The March was first performed in Potsdam in 1842, as a part of
Mendelssohn's incidental music for the Shakespeare play A Midsummer Night's
Dream. It wasn't until Jan. 25, 1858, that the march first appeared in a royal
wedding — as a recessional used by princess Victoria Adelaide Mary Louise, the
oldest child of Queen Victoria, when she married Frederick William IV of
Prussia.
TAX 101 -
IS THAT A SURPLUS? A lot of the attention on state budgets naturally
goes toward those states struggling to make the numbers work. But don't forget
about the states that are on solid ground: California, Georgia, Idaho and Utah
are among the states that have put themselves on a solid fiscal footing by
avoiding deep tax cuts, enacting targeted tax increases, and diverting some
surplus money into 'rainy day' funds to be tapped in leaner times.
FRIEND
REQUEST - Facebook is trying everything to re-enter China—and it’s
not working. Blocked on China’s internet since 2009, the social-media giant has
courted Chinese officials, made Chief Executive Mark Zuckerberg more visible in
China, hired a well-connected China-policy chief and begun developing
technology that could cull content the Communist Party deems unacceptable. It
has made no visible headway. And as time passes, Facebook is watching from the
outside as Chinese companies mop up the market that might have been its own.
Facebook faces a wary central government, which blamed social media for
stirring ethnic unrest in 2009 and remains uneasy with the company’s ability to
be a dissidents’ megaphone. Meanwhile, Facebook is aiming to be more essential
to its 1.79 billion existing users, unveiling new technology to let them reset
passwords for other websites using its platform.
OBAMA v.
CLINTON - The worst-kept secret inside Democratic circle is how
bitter Hillary Clinton's team is at President Obama over her election loss. We
have heard from numerous, anguished people in Clinton-land blaming Obama --
more than Putin, FBI Director James Comey or, um, Hillary herself -- for the
defeat.
The reason: Clintonites feel that if Obama had come out early
and forcefully with evidence of Russian interference in the campaign, and
perhaps quicker sanctions, she might be president today. His caution, they
argue, allowed the public to have a foggy sense of clear, calculated,
consistent Russian meddling in the campaign. We can't stress enough how upset
some Democrats are. It's testing relationships between Clinton and Obama
loyalists. It's making efforts to form a new Trump opposition coalition harder.
GREAT
WEEKEND READS - "The hi-tech war on science fraud,"
by Stephen Buranyi in The Guardian: "The problem of fake data may go far
deeper than scientists admit. Now a team of researchers has a controversial
plan to root out the perpetrators." http://bit.ly/2kBKHja
Bill Plaschke’s column in the Los Angeles Times, Saturday Feb
4:
KICK SAVE
AND A BEAUTY - The NHL’s All-Star Weekend wrapped up quickly last
Sunday night after somewhat entertaining three-on-three tournament filled with
star-studded talent . The Metropolitan Division came away with a 4-3 win over
the Pacific to receive the $1 million prize, while Philadelphia Flyers’ forward
Wayne Simmonds took home MVP honors after notching three goals in the
tournament – including the game-winning goal in the Final round to crown his
team victors.
While the three-on-three tournament boasted highlight reel
material, there were other standout moments from the weekend that ranged from
feel good to disbelief. All in all, however, it was a weekend to remember as
the NHL celebrates its 100-year anniversary.
In addition to all of the competitions that took place this
past weekend, the NHL revealed the final 67 players named to the NHL 100,
joining the previous group of 33 legends that were named before the Centennial
Classic. Included in the list were six current NHL players: Jaromir Jagr
(Florida Panthers), Sidney Crosby (Pittsburgh Penguins), Alex Ovechkin
(Washington Capitals), Patrick Kane (Chicago Blackhawks), Jonathan Toews
(Chicago Blackhawks) and Duncan Keith (Chicago Blackhawks).
A ceremonial puck drop for the ages took place at center ice
before the 3-on-3 tournament, that included all of the participating players in
the tournament and a number of the legends named to the NHL 100. While the puck
drop didn’t go smoothly thanks to synchronization issues amongst the players,
it made for a legendary moment and connected the players of the past to the
players of today who have all worked so hard to be part of the game of hockey
as we know it. It was a moment for the history books, no doubt about it.
SUPER
BOWL QUIZ – Answers at the end of this Blog.
Who is
the only Canadian born player to win a Super Bowl MVP?
Name the
current NFL teams that have never been in a Super Bowl?
NFL GAME
OF THE WEEK – Sunday 2/5, 3:30 PM ET, Fox: New England
Patriots (16-2) vs. Atlanta Falcons (13-5). Super Bowl 51 we like the Pats to win
in a high scoring but mistake filled contest, 38 – 34. Season to date (17-3)
COLLEGE
HOCKEY PICK OF THE WEEK – Saturday 2/4. 7:00 PM ET, HGTV: #14 St.
Lawrence University Saints (15-7-6) vs. Clarkson Golden Knights (11-12-4). ECAC
first place St. Lawrence travel down Route 11 to Cheel Arena to play the tough
Clarkson Accountants, of course we like the Saints to win 5 – 4. Season to date (7-6)
THE
SWAMI’S WEEK TOP PICKS –
(NHL, Feb. 4) Washington Capitals (34-11-6) at Montreal
Canadiens (30-15-7). The Habs win in a big “Hockey Night In Canada” game, 3 – 2.
(NBA, Feb. 4) Detroit Pistons (23-27) at Indiana Pacers
(27-22), huge game for the Pistons if they want to be playoff contenders,
Pistons win in Indy, 92 – 88.
Season to
Date (17 – 6)
SUPER
BOWL QUIZ ANSWERS:
Mark
Rypien, Calgary Alberta, Super Bowl 26 Washington Redskins
Cleveland
Brownies, Detroit Lionhearted, Jacksonville Jokes, Houston Enrons
YOU CAN’T
MAKE THIS UP - A 26-year-old who created disappearing messages
for kids filed for an IPO that could top $20 BILLION , despite losing $500
million last year. This was days after Snapchat CEO Evan Spiegel agreed to
invest $2 billion in Google's "cloud," which until a few years ago was
something that blocked the sun, but now houses our digital secrets and creates
vast riches for tech titans.
Thanks in part to this money cloud, Google knocked off Apple
as the world's most valuable brand. Elon Musk, who builds private rocket ships
and mass-consumer electric cars for the rich, agreed to keep his meeting with
Donald Trump this morning, so he can push for, among other things, making
"humanity a multi-planet civilization."
Oh, and CNBC says Bill Gates may become the world's first
trillionaire.
Meanwhile, the sector where all of the companies reside seemed
ready for war with Trump over restricting the foreign-born talent that helped
bring them to life and property.
On the other coast, President Trump, at the National Prayer
Breakfast, literally prayed for a former action movie hero who now stars in
"The Apprentice," the reality show our president created AND still
technically produces.
Trump's remarks took on separation of church and state:
"I will get rid of and totally destroy the Johnson Amendment [banning
political endorsements by churches] and allow our representatives of faith to
speak freely and without fear of retribution. I will do that -- remember."
Perhaps Trump's quote of the week: "The world is in
trouble, but we're going to straighten it out. OK? That's what I do. I fix
things. We're going to straighten it out."
Soon after, Nancy Pelosi, the voice of House Democrats, called
Trump's top strategist, Steve Bannon (on the cover of the new TIME as possibly
"the second most powerful man in the world"), a "white
supremacist." And Trump, two weeks after threatening NATO and China, one
week after threatening foreign visitors from select Muslim-majority nations,
and one day after threatening Mexico and Australia, prepared a new threat to
Iran in the form of renewed sanctions.
Happy Weekend ....
Next
Blog: Chill out.
Until Next Time, Adios
Claremont, California
February 4, 2017
#VII-33-335
CARTOON
OF THE WEEK –Paul
Roth, The New Yorker
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