As the Commencement season is coming to a close for college
and universities, this writer heard the usual “me, myself, and I” chatter from
Commencement speakers. The patting oneself on the back, speaking only about
their accomplishments and not speaking to the graduates in the audience: when
will many of my generation speak to graduates as intellectual equals and not
social media customers?
“No one is doing College students any favors when they
intellectually isolate them.” To quote Meg Witman, CEO of HP Enterprise in her
Carnegie Mellon University Commencement address of last week. Link is below:
Meg Whitman: Carnegie Mellon University Commencement address
(21 minutes):
There was a common theme sent to graduates across the
country this Commencement season: Truth, Justice and Civility. We must stand
for free speech, do not insulate ourselves from all viewpoints. Learn to listen
and understand others. Civility in society is the etiquette of democracy.
Another common theme was future employment opportunities:
The jobs figures for May disappointed most analysts. But Mark Zuckerberg and
Bill Gates, who built billion-dollar technology companies in two very different
areas, see more seismic shifts ahead.
At his Harvard University commencement speech last week,
Facebook FB, chief executive Zuckerberg,
had some tough words for the Class of 2017. “Our generation will have to deal
with tens of millions of jobs replaced by automation like self-driving cars and
trucks,” he said, adding, “When our parents graduated, purpose reliably came
from your job, your church, your community,. But today, technology and
automation are eliminating many jobs. Membership in communities is declining.
Many people feel disconnected and depressed, and are trying to fill a void.”
Bill Gates, the founder of Microsoft MSFT, last month, sounded the same warning. Gates
said he didn’t want to sound like the guy from “The Graduate,” which celebrates
50 years this year. In that movie, old Benjamin Braddock (Dustin Hoffman) was
given this very famous piece of advice: “I just want to say one word to you.
Just one word …Plastics,” And today? That word would likely be “robots.” Gates
took his 34.8 million Twitter followers by the virtual shoulder and said
“artificial intelligence” would have a huge impact. In other words, why not
join the revolution? After all, that’s exactly what Zuckerberg and Gates did
with social media and computer software.
But that’s not the only response to the robot revolution.
Last February, Gates also said that robots should free up labor “and give
graduates an opportunity to focus on jobs that only let us do a better job of
reaching out to the elderly, having smaller class sizes, helping kids with
special needs. You know, all of those are things where human empathy and
understanding are still very, very unique.” Gates said there is a
counter-intuitive way of approaching the rise of robots. “So if you can take
the labor that used to do the thing automation replaces ...then you’re net
ahead.”
Zuckerberg too spoke about finding meaningful jobs and
purpose in this new automated economy. “Class of 2017, you are graduating into
a world that needs purpose. It’s up to you to create it,” he said, adding,
“Taking on big meaningful projects is the first thing we can do to create a
world where everyone has a sense of purpose. The second is redefining equality
to give everyone the freedom they need to pursue purpose. Many of our parents
had stable jobs throughout their careers.” Today’s graduates, he said, will
need to carve their own path, but have the freedom to fail and to try again.
They’re not wrong: Robots are expected to create 15 million
new jobs in the U.S. over the next 10 years, as a direct result of automation
and artificial intelligence, equivalent to 10% of the workforce, a recent
report by Forrester Research found. The downside: robotics will also kill 25
million jobs over the same period. So in one way Gates is correct. Artificial intelligence
and automation is an area undergoing a seismic shift, just like computers did
in the 1980s and plastics did 30 years before that, and how people around the
world changed how the communicate and share information about themselves (and,
yes, data about themselves) 10 years ago.
And what field will be hot 50 years from now? Some 65% of
Americans expect that within 50 years robots and computers will “definitely” or
“probably” do much of the work currently done by humans, according to a survey
by the Pew Research Center, a nonprofit think tank in Washington, D.C. Some 38%
of jobs in the U.S. are at “high risk” of being replaced by robots and
artificial intelligence over the next 15 years, a separate estimate by
consulting and accounting firm PwC found, which is still lower than Germany
(35%) and the U.K. (30%).
But for those who don’t want to work in artificial
intelligence, there are some “robot-proof” careers, at least for now. They
include composers and artists, nurse practitioners, home health aides, elder
care specialists, child care workers, engineers, teachers and, finally, human
resources executives, a report released earlier this month by careers firm
Challenger, Gray & Christmas concluded. What’s more, many traditionally
blue-collar jobs will be hard to replace, including carpenters, plumbers,
electricians. And, of course, robot engineers will not be replaced by robots.
Low-paying jobs appear most at risk from robots, economists
predict. For those who want to avoid being replaced by robots, a college
education will likely help. There is an 83% chance that automation will replace
a job that pays $20 per hour, according to a White House report released last
year. It found that there’s only a 31% chance that robots will take over a job
that pays between $30 and $40 per hour, and only a 4% chance that automation
will replace jobs with an hourly wage over $40.
Gates also cited biosciences and energy as a good bet for
the Class of 2017. Traditional energy and energy efficiency sectors employ
around 6.4 million Americans, according to the 2017 U.S. Energy and Employment
Report. These sectors increased in 2016 by around 5% on the previous year and
account for roughly 14% of all those created in the country. Jobs in
biosciences are increasing at a rate of 10% per year, the latest report on the
industry by the Biotechnology Innovation Organization estimated, and employs
nearly 1.7 million people in the U.S.
And Zuckerberg also had some words of wisdom for tomorrow’s
entrepreneurs. “Let me tell you a secret: no one does when they begin. Ideas
don’t come out fully formed. They only become clear as you work on them. You
just have to get started,” he said. “If I had to understand everything about
connecting people before I began, I never would have started Facebook. Movies
and pop culture get this all wrong. The idea of a single eureka moment is a
dangerous lie. It makes us feel inadequate since we haven’t had ours. It
prevents people with seeds of good ideas from getting started.”
A NEW
ORDER - The opioid epidemic. Stagnating wages. The
anti-establishment political wave. All are linked to the start of a new
industrial age in which robotics, automation and artificial intelligence are
changing the nature of work.
Why it matters: Deaths from opioid use have more than quadrupled
since 1999, and addiction costs almost $100 billion annually — all linked,
among other social trends, to stagnating income and the loss of jobs.
Economists also connect unemployment and low wages with a breakdown of
families, including a rise in children born to unmarried mothers and living in
single-parent households. This is the beginning of a social, political and
economic transformation.
COMMENCEMNT
THEY SAID IT - Robert De Niro, at Brown University’s
commencement in Providence, R.I.:
'"When you started school, the country was an
inspiring, uplifting drama. ... You are graduating into a tragic, dumbass
comedy."
COMMENCEMENT
OUT AND ABOUT – Jamie Baker, St. Lawrence ’89, celebrates his
daughter Bridget’s graduation from University of Vermont along with his wife
Reilly. Jamie was a member of the Skating Saints, and is now a broadcaster for
the San Jose Sharks. Daughter Bridget played hockey for the Lady Catamounts.
BIRTHDAYS
THIS WEEK – Birthday wishes and thoughts this week to Gary Bettman
(65) Scarsdale, N.Y.; Clint Eastwood
(87) Carmel, CA.; Morgan Freeman (80)
New Orleans, LA.; David Yoshida ….the
pride of Dryden, Ontario.
LET’S
DO LUNCH - The U.S. restaurant industry is in a funk. Blame it on
lunch. Americans made 433 million fewer trips to restaurants at lunchtime last
year than in 2015, resulting in roughly $3.2 billion in lost business for
restaurants. It was the lowest level of lunch traffic in at least four decades.
Many U.S. workers now see stealing away for an hour in the middle of the day as
a luxury. And while restaurants have raised their tabs over the past few years
to cope with rising labor costs, the price of food at supermarkets has
continued to drop, widening the cost gap between bringing in lunch and eating
out. If we’re going to eat lunch at our desks and get rid of open offices,
columnist Jason Gay has some retro suggestions for the workplace—namely,
cocktails.
LBJ
VOLUME V - Robert Caro Nears End Of Research on L.B.J: Those
waiting for the fifth and final planned installment of Robert A. Caro's
award-winning life of Lyndon B. Johnson might be both heartened and frustrated
by the [81-year-old] historian's most recent update on his progress. In an
interview ... with C-Span's Brian Lamb, ... Caro said he had most of the
research and 400 typed pages of the manuscript for the next book done. But 'one
more big thing' remains, he said: A trip to Vietnam. ... The author estimated that
less than 5 percent of the material in his research files has made it into the
finished books."
AUTO
SALES CONTINUE TO SLIDE - U.S. auto sales fell for the fifth
straight month in May, bolstering expectations for the first annual sales
decline since 2009. Some industry analysts lowered predictions for the year as
General Motors, Fiat Chrysler, Hyundai and Toyota all reported May decreases
compared with a year ago. Ford, Honda, Nissan and Volkswagen said their sales
were up. The figures added up to just over 1.5 million vehicles sold and a 0.5
percent decrease.
And GM is still scrambling: General Motors Co. is limping
into the highly anticipated summer selling season, beaten by Ford Motor Co. as
the market's top seller in May and on course for more job cuts at its American
factories.
GM, among the world's most profitable auto makers, has been
scrambling to adjust production as the U.S. market plateaus. The adjustment
reflects a discipline installed by chief executive Mary Barra after decades of
stocking dealer lots with more cars and trucks than customer demand warranted.
PHOTO
DU JOUR: The Supreme Court justices gather for their first official
group portrait to include new Associate Justice Neil Gorsuch, top row, far
right, on June 1 at the Supreme Court Building in Washington, D.C.
GOOD
READ
- Legendary tech journalist Walt Mossberg on May 25 published his final column,
on where tech was (intrusive) and where it's heading (invisible). Here it
is.
DIGITAL
DIVIDE - While Americans in rural areas have made significant
strides in tech adoption over the past decade, they are still less likely to
have access to broadband or own a smartphone than urban or suburban adults,
according to Pew's latest survey on the digital divide. Rural Americans are
also about twice as likely to say they never go online as suburban and urban Americans.
Expanding rural access to broadband has long been a
challenge in the U.S. — since internet providers worry they'll never recoup the
investment they make in building those networks. That's why it's something to
watch if Congress gets around to an infrastructure package that includes
incentives for expanded rural broadcast access.
JACK
ASS OF THE MONTH - Did Bill Maher just try to take the heat off of
Kathy Griffin? His out-of-nowhere use of the N-word on Friday’s “Real Time”
brought instant rebukes and calls for him to be fired.
The former “Politically Incorrect” host proved he’s still
politically incorrect when Republican Nebraska Sen. Ben Sasse jokingly invited
him to “work in the fields.”
“Senator, I’m a house n—-a,” Maher said, immediately adding:
“It’s a joke.”
Griffin, who was forced to apologize this week after
widespread outrage over images of her with a fake decapitated head of President
Trump, has been a real-time guest before.
Maher was notably silent on her situation — but his
egregious N-word helped her as nothing else could have. At least for a night,
it drew national outrage toward him, instead of her. HBO issued a comment,
saying, “Bill Maher‘s comment last night was completely inexcusable and
tasteless. We are removing his deeply offensive comment from any subsequent
airings of the show.”
Maher said Saturday through a spokesperson, “Friday nights
are always my worst night of sleep because I’m up reflecting on the things I
should or shouldn’t have said on my live show. Last night was a particularly
long night as I regret the word I used in the banter of a live moment. The word
was offensive and I regret saying it and am very sorry.”
Welcome to the Jack Ass of the Month Club.
HOUSE OF CARDS, SEASON FIVE - This
season focuses on many of Frank's sins coming back to haunt him.
Netflix's flagship drama is back, and Frank Underwood is
more corrupt and less subtle than ever before.
If CNN/Fox News/MSNBC haven't sated your appetite for
stories of voter fraud, media distortion, a fragmented electorate, an initialed
terrorist group out of the Middle East [ICO] and the potential for Russian
interference in our democratic process, House of Cards has you covered.
A GREAT
AMERICAN WRITER, FRANK DEFORD - Literary Storyteller of Sport, who
wrote a shelf of books, and whose long profiles were a mainstay of Sports
Illustrated in its heyday — dies in Key West at 78.
It was just 25 days after he delivered the last of his
weekly "Sweetness and Light" commentaries for NPR's "Morning
Edition.”
AP sports columnist Jim Litke: "He dressed up every
event he attended."
"He also dressed up in a more literal way, always
sharply attired and cutting a debonair figure at 6-foot-4."
N.Y. Times obit for Benjamin Franklin Deford III: "At
Sports Illustrated, he became a leader in a form of literary sports
journalism."
On NPR, "he spoke to an audience less obsessed with box
scores, statistics and injury updates and more interested in the cultural
impact of sports and the people behind the games."
NPR's Colin Dwyer: "The Hall of Fame sportswriter was
public radio's scholar of sports for some 37 years ... He leaves behind an
astonishing 1,656 commentaries for NPR."
Classic Deford quote: "I believe that professional
wrestling is clean and everything else in the world is fixed."
SWAMI’S
WEEK TOP PICKS –
The Belmont Stakes; (1)
Tapwrit, (2) Epicharis, (3) Irish War Cry
MLB Game of the Week (June 10) – Baltimore
Orioles (29-26) vs. New York Yankees (32-22), Yanks are taking control of the
American League East, they win 4 – 2.
Season
to Date (40 - 17)
DRIVING
THE WEEK - Former FBI director James Comey testifies Thursday before
the Senate Intelligence Committee. Get the popcorn ready ... Congress returns
with 31 days in session before the August recess. Lot on deck including the
need to lift the debt ceiling ... House expected to vote Thursday on the CHOICE
ACT 2.0 which should pass now that it doesn't include Durbin amendment repeal.
But it's not going to pass the Senate in its current form ... Trump expected to
travel to the Midwest during the week to talk infrastructure and may visit
London at the end of the week ... Treasury may release at least some of its
recommendations to alter financial regulations ... Trump kicks off his
infrastructure week Monday at 11:30 a.m. with an effort to privatize air
traffic control ... Productivity on Monday at 8:30 a.m. expected to decline 0.2
percent ... ISM Non-manufacturing Monday at 10:00 a.m. expected to dip to 57.0
from 57.5.
Next
Blog: Words of the Month and Dear Rink Rats.
See you on June 12, Adios.
Claremont, California
June 5, 2017
#VIII-3-345
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