We
are back from our summer hiatus, as our blog title indicates we had a rather
uneventful break. In regard to the “Summer To Do” list you can cross off
leaking faucets, clean windows, fifteen student job recommendations. But still
to do; clean carpets, organize storage, organize my office, golf game rehab,
and what will never happen…the beach body.
Not
very impressive.
As
the temperature here in Clareville hits above 100 degrees for the fourth
consecutive day, it is time to start another academic year. So, another year of
wonderful students, committees, “reply all” emails, the ongoing struggles of
real versus academic worlds, fundraisers, lousy meeting snacks, me, myself and
I, more stories from “The Brain”, and of
course where is “Cersei Lannister” these days???
OUT AND
ABOUT – Well
the St. Lawrence University boys had their annual summer fling this past
weekend at the Ken Brousseau (St. Lawrence ’76) compound in Whitby, Ontario.
Our
first snap shot is the Stanley Cup paid a visit to the St. Lawrence crew:
Jacques Martin, Assistant coach of the Pittsburgh Penguins (St. Lawrence ’75)
brought the cup to Paul “Cape Bretten Island” Gallagher (St. Lawrence ’77),
Jeff Dillon and Murray Cawker (St. Lawrence ’76) and Scotty “Lunar” Graham (St.
Lawrence ’75).
Our
second shutter is taken of the crew at a brewery, minutes before they were
arrested by the Ontario Provincial Police: Scott Graham, Joe O’Rourke (St.
Lawrence ’76), “Caper”, Ken Brousseau, Jeff Dillon, and “The Murph”. Noticeably
absent Scott “Cat” Morrison (St. Lawrence ’76) cruising in Alaska with his
lovely wife Millie.
COLLEGE
CHRONICLES
– Happy 125th birthday to Ithaca College, Ithaca New York as they
begin their school year this past week.
- - Nicholas B. Dirks, a former chancellor at the University of
California at Berkeley, will be paid $434,000 while on leave this coming year.
POTUS, WHAT
WE MISSED
– President Trump's undisciplined and incendiary style has left the most
powerful man in the world with few friends — not one in the United States
Senate, for instance.
Trump
started with a pretty clean slate but has methodically alienated:
The
public: Gallup has his approval at 34%, down from 46% just after the
inauguration.
Republican
congressional leaders — Senate Majority Mitch McConnell in particular are going
their own way on tax reform. Hill sources believe his original targets,
including a 15% corporate rate, are dead.
Every
Democrat who could help him do a deal.
The
media.
CEOs.
World
leaders.
Europe.
Muslims.
Hispanics.
African
Americans.
Military
leaders.
The
intelligence community.
His
own staff.
And who's
happy?
Saudi
Arabia.
Breitbart.
David
Duke.
GOOD READ – “The Liberal
Crackup” By Mark Lilla Wall Street Journal August 12;
Liberals should reject the divisive, zero-sum politics of identity
and find their way back to a unifying vision of the common good.
GOOD READ PART DEUX - "Harvey
Wasn't Just Bad Weather. It Was Bad City Planning ... Houston exulted in
sprawling, free-form growth, but laissez-faire isn't the way to prepare for
natural catastrophes," Peter Coy and Christopher Flagella write in
Bloomberg Businessweek's cover story:
"No city could have with-stood
Harvey without serious harm, but Houston made itself more vulnerable than
necessary."
"Paving over the saw-grass prairie
reduced the ground's capacity to absorb rainfall. Flood-control reservoirs were
too small. Building codes were inadequate. Roads became rivers, so while
hospitals were open, it was almost impossible to reach them by car."
"Sprawling Houston is a can-do city
whose attitude is grow first, ask questions later. It's the only major U.S.
city without a zoning code saying what types of buildings can go where, so
skyscrapers sometimes sprout next to split-levels. Voters have repeatedly
opposed enacting a zoning law."
The big picture: "It's a minor
event for the $19 trillion U.S. economy, since most of the economic activity
that was interrupted will be made up later. It was a light hit for insurers,
because few underwrite flood insurance and the wind damage they do cover was
minimal; insurers' stock prices barely fell. The refining and petrochemical
industries lining the busy Houston Ship Channel also got off fairly lightly
(this time), because they've invested heavily in storm defenses."
"The impact on taxpayers is more
serious, because Harvey is likely to generate tens of billions of dollars in
emergency federal aid and claims on the money-losing National Flood Insurance
Program ... Above all, Harvey is a humanitarian disaster."
HOW HARVEY WILL CHANGE TEXAS: The
storm's most lasting legacy might be the end of the Lone Star State's rugged
individualism: Texans might pride themselves on their rugged individualism, but
this time, they'll have no choice but to accept years of state and federal help
for the recovery. By the time Harvey leaves the city on Wednesday, Greater
Houston will have been drenched with 1 trillion gallons of water and an
estimated 30,000 people will be living in temporary housing. [FEMA] expects to
receive at least 450,000 claims for damage caused by the storm. And early
estimates point to least $150 billion in total economic losses.
LA TIMES CHANGES - Ross Levinsohn
named new publisher and CEO of Los Angeles Times as top editors ousted:
"In a dramatic shakeup at the Los Angeles Times, the Chicago-based parent
company has installed new leadership and plans to invest more resources in the
news organization to move it more quickly into the digital age. Ross Levinsohn,
54, a veteran media executive who worked at Fox and served as interim chief of
Yahoo, was named publisher and chief executive of the 135-year-old news
organization. ...
Jim Kirk, 52, a veteran Chicago news
executive, who was publisher and editor of the Chicago Sun-Times until last
week, was named interim editor of the storied newspaper. The two men replace
Davan Maharaj, who has served as both editor and publisher since March 2016.
Maharaj was terminated Monday morning, along with a handful of other senior
editors, including Managing Editor Marc Duvoisin, Deputy Managing Editor for
Digital Megan Garvey and Assistant Managing Editor of Investigations Matt Doig.
BIRTHDAYS
THIS WEEK
– Birthday wishes and thoughts this week to Sean Connery (87) Glaskow, Scotland; Alexis Schiff …famous
Leo
BANK PROFITS
HIT RECORD
- Banks are earning more money than ever, raking in $48.3 billion in profits
the second quarter of this year, according to the FDIC. That's roughly 6
percent higher than the previous record high of $45.6 billion, reached in the
third quarter of last year.
Banks' net income, released by the FDIC as
part of its quarterly banking profile, was also up 10.7 percent from the same
quarter a year earlier. The increase in profits was due largely to higher
income from interest earned on loans, the FDIC said, in the wake of multiple
rate hikes by the Federal Reserve.
DOLLAR BACK - A growing
investor consensus that the dollar will keep weakening is rippling around the
world, fueling rallies in assets from U.S. stocks to commodities. The dollar
has been suffering through one of its worst stretches in years, weighed down by
scant inflation and doubts whether the Federal Reserve will raise rates soon.
Mr. Trump’s election sparked a brief dollar rally, as the market counted on the
implementation of his policy agenda, which includes tax cuts and infrastructure
spending, to buoy the economy and the currency with it. However, with gridlock
in Washington putting those policies in doubt—or at least on hold—many believe
the dollar stands to fall further. Investors last week held roughly $7.9
billion in bets on a weaker dollar, the biggest bearish position since early
2013, according to data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.
MARKET WEEK
- Where we are
investing the second half of 2017:
Stocks
over bonds; the latest earnings season has affirmed our positive view on equity
fundamentals, and we see solid equity returns ahead in the second half. At the
same time, global economic expansion and monetary policy normalization point to
a gradual rise in bond yields over the next five years. Long-term rates are
being held down by structural factors including plentiful global savings,
providing a favorable backdrop for equities. The earnings yield (earnings per
share divided by the share price, or the inverse of the price-to-earnings
ratio) still looks attractive versus real (after inflation) bond yields,
meaning stocks may be cheaper than they look in a low-rate world.
Non-U.S.
equities over U.S. peers: We like the U.S. market, but we think higher returns
can be found in emerging markets (EM), Japan and Europe. We see opportunities
in EM equities, assuming no sharp changes in currency, trade or other policies.
Economic reforms, improving corporate fundamentals and reasonable valuations
provide support. Elsewhere, we see a number of positives supporting the
Japanese market, including more shareholder-friendly corporate behavior,
ongoing ultra-easy monetary policy, low valuations and solid earnings. That
said, a stronger yen is a risk.
European
equities have done well this year, but they are still trading at a valuation
discount to U.S. peers. We believe there’s further scope for this valuation gap
to close, given the European economy’s strong fundamentals and a decline in
populism. But a stronger euro could slow the pace of earnings growth among
European companies, and other risks include politicians not delivering on
reforms, the European Central Bank (ECB) winding back its stimulus too soon and
renewed political instability in Italy.
SWAMI’S WEEK
TOP PICKS
–
NCAA
Football Preseason Rink Rats Top Ten:
1).
Ohio State Buckeyes 2).
Florida State Criminals
3).
Alabama Crimson Tide 4). USC
Trojans
5).
Oklahoma Sooners 6).
Clemson Tigers
7).
Penn State Nittany Lions 8).
Washington Huskies
9).
Stanford Cardinal 10).
Michigan Wolverines
SCIAC
Football Preseason Top Five:
1).
Redland Bulldogs 2). California Lutheran Kingsmen
3).
La Verne Leopards 4).
Claremont-Mudd Republicans
5).
Chapman Panthers
College
Football Pick of the Week – Saturday 9/2, 8:00 PM ET, ABC: #3 Florida
State Criminals vs. #1 Alabama Crimson Tide, we like Alabama in this early
season slug fest, 31 – 27.
D-III
Football Pick of the Week – Saturday 9/2, 1:00 PM ET: #21 Alfred
University Saxons vs. Ithaca College Bombers, big E-8 matchup on South Hill. IC
in an upset, 24 -21.
SCIAC Game
of the Week – Saturday 9/2, 7:00 PM PT: Trinity (Texas) Tigers vs. #25 Redlands
Bulldogs, Redlands is the team to beat in SCIAC this season, they win this out
of conference tilt, 35 – 24.
MLB Game of
the Week – Boston Red Sox (73-57) at New York Yankees (70-59), Yanks are
hanging in there, they win this one in the Bronx, 4 – 3.
Season to Date
(46 - 25)
ON THIS DATE – Today in
1981: IBM announces they will sell a desk top personal computer.
ON THIS DATE
PART DEUX
- Today marks a big anniversary for the U.S. automotive industry - it was on
this day 115 years ago that Cadillac was founded and that then-President
Theodore Roosevelt became the first president to make a public appearance in an
automobile.
Next Blog: Jack Ass of
the Month and The Swami’s preseason NFL football picks.
Until
September 6, Adios
Claremont,
California
August
31, 2017
#VIII-12-354
CARTOON OF
THE WEEK – Charles
Schulz
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