On
The First Day of Christmas – The
Christmas Party (sorry, Holiday Party) circuit has concluded for another year,
here are some debriefing notes:
Best
drink – Red Rooster Punch.
Best
Party Snack – Lamb Meat Balls
Lamest
Holiday Party Song – “We Are Family” by Sister Sledge
Biggest
Rip Off - $12.00 ($15.30 Canadian) for a half shot drink at the Pomona
Fairplex, the Pomona Fairplex, really!
Comings
and Goings Gossip – POTUS Trump is still a weirdo, but wait and see what
happens in the 2018 mid-term elections. Then it will be interesting. Susan Collins will be the next President of
The St. Lawrence University, Mark Morris will not return for the 2018-19 St.
Lawrence University Hockey Season. Ken Holland will retire at the end of the
current National Hockey League season from the Detroit Red Wings. Two members
of the management team at a local University will be gone on July 1, 2018. On
the recommendation of her Doctor, Hilary Clinton will not be seeking the 2020
Democratic Presidential nomination; she and Bill will be getting a divorce in
2018. Thank you Dr. Frankenstein.
Fox
News, CNN, MSNBC, NPR are all hypocrites and pathetic news organizations.
On
the Second Day of Christmas – Mike Francesa (63), The Godfather of sports’
talk radio, had his final broadcast at WFAN in New York. He is stepping down
after thirty years at WFAN. Christopher Russo (58), Sirius Channel 82, is now
the undisputed ruler of daily sports’ talk radio.
On
the Third Day of Christmas – I received a call from my CPA from the
accounting firm Dewey, Cheatum and Howe. He explained the new Republican Tax
bill as follows:
The
child tax credit has been made more refundable than in the Senate bill. It's
now $2,000 per child, with $1,400 of this refundable for families who have no
income tax liability.
The
corporate rate will be 21% beginning in 2018.
The
top individual rate is 37%. There are seven brackets, and the lowest rate is
10%.
Most
of us are getting a tax cut, but not all of us and not forever. And if you're
rich, the tax bill benefits you much more.
According
to the Joint Committee on Taxation, taxes overall would fall by 8 percent in
2019, with every bracket seeing a decline, on average. But while people earning
between $20,000 and $30,000 would see their taxes fall by 13.5 percent, by
2021, people earning that same amount would see their tax bills go up by 8.6
percent.
Separately,
a Tax Policy Center analysis finds that 80 percent of taxpayers would see a tax
cut next year - averaging $2,100 a year. But 5 percent would face a tax
increase averaging $2,800, while the rest would see essentially no change.
On
the Fourth Day of Christmas – Key issues involving Higher Education at this
years’ end -
ANIMAL HOUSE NO MORE: Amid worries
about endemic binge drinking, sexual assault and a startling spate of deaths,
schools are going beyond the old practice of shutting down individual
[fraternity] houses to imposing broad restrictions on all Greek life.
Activities
like fraternity parties and initiations have been suspended or curtailed at
colleges including Ball State, Indiana University, Ohio State and the
University of Michigan, as well as at least five where deaths have occurred
this year: Florida State, Louisiana State, Penn State, Texas State and Iowa.
Why
it matters ... There is definitely this moment in time where society is not
willing to accept behavior that in the past has been acceptable. Sorry Sig Pi
and Beta.
COLLEGE
PRESIDENTS: POLITICAL BACKLASH 'A WAKE-UP CALL': Higher education leaders say
they need to do more to combat charges of elitism that have fueled a public and
political
backlash. There is an attempt to build a narrative of colleges and universities
as out of touch and not politically diverse.
They
fear higher education is becoming a political punching bag. The GOP's tax plan
is the clearest and most recent example. The sweeping changes to the tax code
will likely target universities in a way they've never been targeted before -
including likely taxing the richest private schools' endowments. But charges of
elitism have come from both sides of the political spectrum. Republicans,
including the Trump administration, have complained that free speech is being
stifled on campuses and have questioned the value of a four-year degree for
some students. Republicans and Democrats alike have blasted rapidly rising
tuition costs.
COLLEGE
ENROLLMENT DIPS: Undergraduate college enrollment is down among U.S. adults,
including traditional-age first-year students, according to a new report from
the National Student Clearinghouse Research Center. Enrollment in undergraduate
programs has been falling since the end of the recession, following a boom
during the economic downturn among older adults. The 1.4 percent decline over
last year can largely be attributed to declines in enrollment among adults in
this group - people 24 and older seeking to enroll in undergraduate programs -
and among those not seeking bachelor's degrees.
This
year's dip is notable because the decrease among adults 18-24 who are enrolling
in college for the first time is accelerating. Last year's 0.7 percent decline
is now 1 percent. This suggests further declines to come overall in the years
ahead, which will continue to present planning challenges for institutions and
policymakers seeking to adapt to new economic and demographic realities.
On
the Fifth Day of Christmas - FINANCIAL CRISIS: on this day marks the
10-year anniversary of the start of the Great Recession. To mark the occasion,
the Cleveland Fed and the FDIC on Monday each released first-hand accounts of
the financial crisis.
From
the Cleveland Fed: "Bank loans were going sour. Bank stock prices were in
free fall. Big-name firms were outright failing or on the brink. As the housing
bubble popped and the most severe financial crisis since the Great Depression
tightened its grip on the US economy, the situation swiftly became an
all-hands-on-deck state of affairs for the Federal Reserve. ... 'Things were
moving at lightning speed,' says Jenni Frazer, who at the time was leading a
team to supervise one of the largest banks in the region."
From
the FDIC: "The nationwide housing expansion of the early 2000s was rooted
in a combination of factors, including an extended period of low interest
rates. By mid-2003, both long-term mortgage rates and the federal funds rate
... had declined to levels not seen in at least a generation. ... Other factors
were in play as well in the years leading up to and during the housing market
expansion. Financial innovation and deregulation contributed to an environment
in which the U.S. and global financial systems became far more concentrated,
more interconnected, and, in retrospect, far less stable than they had been in
previous decades.
On
the Sixth Day of Christmas – We celebrate birthdays of this week; Ramsey
Clark (90) Bethesda, Maryland; Kirk
Douglas (101) St. Lawrence University
’39; Pope Francis (91) Rome, Italy; Peter
Hewitt ….entrepreneur, great husband, great friend, and father of Joey Hewitt. Nancy
Newman …our favorite photographer.
On
the Seventh Day of Christmas – A review of the Markets:
In
the first 11 Months: Dow Jones
Industrial Index - Obama +29.9%
Trump
+25.0%
S&P
500 - Obama
+36.9%
Trump
+20.4%
The
Dow Jones Industrial Average added 140 points Monday to notch its 70th record
close this year. That tops the 69 Dow records set in 1995 and crowns 2017 as
the most record-setting year in the 121-year history of the blue-chip
benchmark.
Stocks
are one good day away from the Dow topping 25000 for the first time; the
technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index is knocking on the door of its
first-ever finish above 7000.
Amid
the breakthroughs, some analysts warn that the tax package lawmakers have
passed could mark a short-term top in the rally. Few are willing to wager that
the nearly nine-year bull market is on its last legs, however.
The
likelihood for profit-boosting corporate tax cuts have been among the key
drivers for U.S. stock gains this year, alongside improving economic conditions
and ultra-low interest rates that leave investors little choice but to buy
risky assets in hopes of meaningful returns.
The
passage of the tax overhaul could mark a pivot in the stock market, the day
President Donald Trump signs a tax bill into law will mark the market top, a
sort of “sell the news” event as investors contemplate the new year.
Even
if the stock market is up next year, it's highly unlikely do as well as it’s
done this year.
That's
because 2017 has been pretty flawless on multiple fronts. Strong returns and
almost no volatility are tough to come by -- and tough to repeat -- but this
year brought both.
The
S&P 500 is up 20% with just seven sessions to go. Including dividends, it's
returned 23%. Meanwhile, the Cboe Volatility Index, one measure of expected
stock swings over the next 30 days, hasn't topped its long-term average of just
over 19 once this year. On Tuesday, it finished at just over 10.
The
S&P 500, already up 1.7% this month on a total return basis, is poised to
have 12 straight months of positive returns in 2017, including dividends. It
would be the first year since at least 1970 that's happened, according to The
Wall Street Journal's Market Data Group.
That
may not sound like much compared to the dramatic rise of bitcoin, which has
multiplied in value many times over. One unit of the crypto-currency, worth
less than $1,000 at the end of last year, was recently trading around $17,000.
But
unlike bitcoin, it's been easy to own the stocks in the S&P 500 this year
without your portfolio keeping you up at night. It’s the kind of smooth returns
that typically come with hefty management fees. Instead, it's been available on
any old index-tracking fund.
One
way to see that is to look at the Sharpe ratio, which measures how much reward
an investor gets for the amount of risk they take. A high ratio means investors
are getting top-notch returns relative to risk. That ratio, at more than 5 this
year for the S&P 500, is better than 99% of readings going back to 1926.
As
it happens, many predict another year of stock market gains. Analysts tracked
by Birinyi Associates forecast, on average, that the S&P 500 will rise 6.3%
from Tuesday's closing level by the end of 2018.
On
the Eighth Day of Christmas – OUT AND ABOUT were some boys from St.
Lawrence University on both coasts sharing bottles of wine, and a pint or two.
Below
L-R; Val Ireland, John Reinman, Jay Ireland, Bob Kirschner, Gene Golden, Hugh
& Vickie Lappe, Teb Barnard (Franklin, Michigan) celebrate in NYC.
Below
L-R; Reggie Dunlop and Peter Hewitt celebrate at Heroes in Claremont, CA the #1
nationally ranked D-III men’s basketball Whitman College Missionaries, sorry
Blues, 96 to 67 victory over the University of La Verne Leopards. Joey Hewitt
’19 scored nineteen points for the Blues. Rink Rats also commends Windsor,
California’s Cardinal Newman High School graduate Connor Head ’18 who scored
twenty two points to lead the Leopards. Connor is a Business Administration
Major.
Note: Plenty of lies were abundant on both coasts.
On
the Ninth Day of Christmas – The National Hockey League celebrated the
league’s One Hundredth Anniversary; Hockey looked very different when the
N.H.L. played its first games 100 years ago. Arenas were smaller and darker.
The players were also smaller, averaging about 5-foot-9 and 160 pounds. Even
so, the best of them played close to 60 minutes a game.
Small
rosters and few substitutions meant the game was slower. Equipment was limited
and rather primitive, providing only minimal protection. Players did not hit
nearly as hard as they do today. The rules were different too. Forward passing
was not yet permitted in the N.H.L.; it would begin to be phased in during the
1918-19 season. When play began with two games on Dec. 19, 1917, goalies were
not even allowed to drop to the ice to make a save.
That
night, the Montreal Wanderers beat Toronto, 10-9, while the Montreal Canadiens
beat the Ottawa Senators, 7-4. Joe Malone, who would score 44 goals in just 20
games played in 1917-18, had five goals for the Canadiens. Harry Hyland netted
five for the Wanderers, while Reg Noble notched four for Toronto in a losing
cause. Three nights later, the Canadiens scored an 11-2 victory over the
Wanderers, while Toronto beat Ottawa, 11-4.
On
the Tenth Day of Christmas – POTUS 2017; In fact, it's striking how little
President Trump — and perceptions of President Trump — have changed as 2017
comes to a close:
He
started 2017 with about 40% of the country with him, and ends 2017 with about
40% of the country with him.
He
started 2017 haunted by Russian interference in the election, and ends 2017
haunted by Russian interference in the election.
He
started 2017 with elected Republicans skeptical but compliant, and ends 2017
with elected Republicans skeptical but compliant.
He
started 2017 with virtually every elected Democrat disliking him, and ends 2017
with virtually every elected Democrat disliking him.
He
started 2017 at war with the mainstream media, and ends 2017 at odds with the
mainstream media.
He
started 2017 with accusations that he sexually harassed women, and ends 2017
with accusations that he sexually harassed women.
He
started 2017 talking tough but doing little to China, and ends 2017 talking
tough but doing little to China.
He
started 2017 with a lot of top Republican talent not wanting to work for him,
and ends 2017 with a lot of Republican top talent not wanting to work for him.
He
started 2017 on Twitter, and most certainly will end 2017 on Twitter.
This
is the rerun presidency: Every day feels like the last day. So it's safe to
assume that 2018 will feel a lot like — wait for it — 2017.
On
the Eleventh Day of Christmas – We determined our HOLIDAY READING; “Manias, Panics, and Crashes: A History of
Financial Crises” by Robert Z. Aliber and Charles P. Kindleberger. Thinking
of buying some bitcoin? A reread of this classic on what was behind past
financial crises is a good refresher before you do. It’s the top of my reading
list this holiday season. And after finishing it, I’ll be brushing up on my
bitcoin “mining” skills by reading about the Secure Hash Algorithm-256.
“The Art of
Thinking Clearly” by Rolf Dobelli. This book describes the most common cognitive
biases, or thinking errors, people make, and is essential reading for improving
investing decision making AND managing people.
On
the Twelfth Day of Christmas - THE SWAMI MADE HIS PICKS:
NFL Football
Pick of the Week – Sunday 12/24, 4:25 EDT, Fox: Seattle Seahawks (8-6) vs. Dallas
Cowboys (8-6). The winner of this NFC game is still in the playoff hunt, the
loser is fini. Dallas wins: 24 – 17. (Season
to date 9-6).
College
Football Pick of the Week – Saturday 12/23, 3:30 PM EDT, ESPN: Bowl
Season, Armed Forces Bowl from Ft. Worth Texas: San Diego State Aztecs (10-2)
vs. Army Black Knights (9-3). Most bowl games this season are yawners , this is
a good one; Aztecs win 38 – 30. (Season
to date 9-6)
NHL Pick of
the Week – Saturday 12/23, 8:00 PM PDT, CSHB: Two Division leaders;
Washington Capitals (22-12-1) vs. Vegas Golden Knights (22-9-2). Knights win 5 - 3. Season
to date (7-2).
NBA Pick of
the Week – Monday 12/25 Noon PST, ABC: The annual Christmas Day NBA showcase,
Cleveland Cavaliers (23-9) vs. Golden State Warriors (24-6), Huey says go with
the Warriors, will do, 98 – 92. (season to date 0-0)
Season to Date
(96 - 70)
Next Blog: 2017 Year in
Review.
Until
next time, Feliz Navidad
Claremont,
California
December
21, 2017
#VIII-20-362
CARTOON OF
THE WEEK – Merry
Richness
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