We
begin 2018 and “The Year of the Dog” should be very interesting.
It
will be “Times Up” for many individuals and causes this coming year, here is what
Rink Rats thinks will go down in the coming year.
2018
DEPRESSION TOPICS - U.S. is starting to see
notable declines in areas that matter most to regular citizens:
We're
dying sooner.
Student
debt is piling up.
Homes
are out of reach for the youths.
Mass
shootings result in a shrug.
The
opioid crisis is staggering.
Our
education system is middling.
Our
infrastructure is falling behind.
The
United States is still the only developed country — and just one of a handful
overall — that doesn't guarantee paid maternity leave.
We
drink too much.
Fewer
people want to visit.
2018 RISKS - China
loves a vacuum: China is setting international standards [on trade and
investment, tech, values, and security] with less resistance than ever before.
Accidents:
It's impossible to ignore the risk of a major crisis today, because there are
too many places where a misstep or misjudgment could provoke serious
international conflict.
Global
tech cold war: Achieving dominance in emerging technologies is the world's most
important battle for economic power.
Erosion
of institutions: Conflict will become more frequent, decision-making degraded,
and internal chaos common.
This
is a White House that's headed toward massive distraction from a Mueller
investigation, over and under for impeachment are now thirteen months.
And
maybe the most sobering of all: The decline of U.S. influence in the world will
accelerate in 2018.
2018
OPTIMISM
- After a dismal run in world politics, it is certainly time to be reminded
that there can be good, as well as bad, surprises.
We
predict that most of the big risks that currently worry pundits will not
happen.
There
will not be a war on the Korean peninsula, nor will there be one in the South
China Sea or in Eastern Europe. The EU will not fall apart, Brexit negotiations
will not break down and markets will not crash. By contrast, there will be big
and positive change in the Middle East. And England will win the World Cup.
It
may be hard to believe in the United States, but 2017 was again the best year
in history, based on the aggregate well-being of humanity. People have never
before lived so long, so well or so freely.
Oil
prices are projected to be hovering higher this year than in previous years.
One big question is whether oil companies will boost their investments and ward
off a supply crunch — and subsequently much higher prices — in a few years, as
the International Energy Agency has been warning for at least a year.
Saudi
Aramco would be the world's biggest initial public offering ever. The
state-owned oil giant in Saudi Arabia, the biggest oil-producing company in the
world, has said it's sticking with its plans to sell up to 5% of its shares
this year.
2018
will be a year when democratic governments can either work together to
safeguard electoral processes or face a future where democracy is more fragile.
This
needs to include work to protect campaigns from hacking, address social media
issues, ensure the integrity of voting results, and protect vital census
processes.
While
technology companies have a high responsibility to help, there is no substitute
for the effective and unified voices of democratic governments themselves.
NEW YEAR
RESOLUTIONS (A SAMPLE) –
Keep
my inbox more organized
With
over 10,000 emails in my inbox, I am going to start using rules and folders to
stay on top of my messages. It takes time to set up but will for sure lead to a
more productive year. I will also schedule time for periodic inbox cleanups.
Put
cash to work
Letting
cash build up and sit in bank deposits or money market funds might not be the
best strategy depending on your goals. You might be missing out on interest
that could accrue from bonds and not keep pace with the Federal Reserve’s
(Fed’s) interest rate hikes. Consider short-term bond exchange traded funds
(ETFs) for the core of your portfolio.
Stick
to the long-term plan
2018
is likely to see a number of market disruptions, but don’t panic! Possible
catalysts include continued Fed rate hikes, the flattening of the yield curve,
the potential resurfacing of inflation, a pickup in equity volatility, and
geopolitical events. Don’t be distracted by the latest news and make rushed
portfolio changes. Know your long-term portfolio plan and stick to it.
Simplify
and streamline my life
We
all end up with an accumulation of possessions and responsibilities that
individually may make sense but in aggregate are unmanageable.
Home
in on costs
Consider
replacing the complicated and expensive (such as an active growth mutual fund
that’s delivered index-like returns for the last 10 years) with more
transparent, consistent and cost effective solutions (like a smart beta
momentum ETF). Learn more about the differences between ETFs and mutual funds.
Prepare
for volatility
Brace
for some ups and downs in markets, but consider positioning your portfolio to
pursue income through preferred stocks, total shareholder payout and high yield
bond-oriented ETFs.
Strike
a balance
Stay
balanced with a meaningful focus across all key aspects of life: work, family
and health, and learning. For investing, the same approach applies: Consider
thoughtfully allocating your portfolios across asset classes, regions, sectors
and factors.
Listen
more
Stay
humble and accept I don’t have all the answers. I want to listen and learn
more, and talk less.
Seek
out opinions different than your own
Live
by design, not by default
Update
Your Software
This
rule of thumb applies to anything that touches your information security:
operating systems, antivirus software, your internet router, your password
management app and your web browsers. Keep these important components up to
date with the latest security enhancements, and you will be better off than
most.
Read
Privacy Policies
So
make it a habit to read a company’s privacy policy. As boring as it sounds, a
bit of reading will go a long way. I recently considered using a free internet
service for sending a fax, and upon reading the privacy policy I learned that
the company collects sensitive information like Social Security numbers and
driver’s license numbers. (I went out and found a traditional fax machine
instead.)
Delete
Unnecessary Apps
At
least once a year, it’s worthwhile to do an audit on your third-party apps. On
your smartphone, delete apps that you have not touched in several months. For a
clean break, in some cases you will also have to visit the company’s website
and request that your account be deleted entirely
Also
check your primary online accounts, like Facebook, Twitter or Google, to see
which apps are hooked into them. Chances are you have used those accounts to
quickly sign up for a web tool or app. The ones you never use may still be
leeching off your personal data, so you should disable them.
On
Facebook, go to the settings page and click on the Apps tab to see which apps
are connected to the account. On your Google account page, you can find a
similar apps list labeled “Connected apps & sites.” And on Twitter, go to
the Apps page under “Settings and privacy.”
On
my neglected Facebook account, for example, I had 82 connected apps. After
removing many unused or defunct apps, like LivingSocial, Words With Friends and
Draw Something, I had 32 left.
Use
a VPN
In
April, Congress voted to overturn privacy rules that would have made it more
difficult for broadband providers like Comcast and Charter to track and sell
information about your browsing history to advertisers. The stronger privacy
rules never went into effect, meaning nothing changed. But the privacy repeal
underlined the sheer magnitude of data that internet service providers can
collect and share about you. Subscribing to a virtual private network, or VPN,
is a meaningful safeguard for your online privacy.
When
you browse the web, a broadband provider helps route your device’s internet
traffic to each destination website. Every device you use has an identifier
consisting of a string of numbers, also known as an IP address. When you are on
the internet, a service provider can see which devices you use and which sites
you visit.
RINK RATS
2018 PORTFOLIO – My portfolio for purchase this 2018, buy was made Friday
January 5. We will track throughout 2018, we need your prayers.
General Electric: Shares of General Electric Co. GE have declined over 42% in the past 12 months
to levels not seen since the late 1990s. Chalk it up to a string of
disappointing quarters and a dividend cut. But the venerable industrial giant
is not down for the count. Buy @ $18.54 10 shares = $185.40
Weatherford International, Ltd.: WFT under prior management,
Weatherford branched out into too many businesses, and took on too much debt to
do so. That didn’t work out so well. The stock now trades near an eight-year
low. Under the new leadership of Haliburton Co. HAL, veteran Mark McCollum,
Weatherford is unloading non-core assets and paying down debt. Buy @ $3.87 10
shares = $38.70
Walt Disney: DIS shares have been beaten down too far by investors overly
worried about weakness in its ESPN division, and competition from Netflix Inc.
NFLX, and Amazon.com Inc. AMZN. After
all, Disney has great content, too. And it’s bulking up with a planned purchase
of the entertainment assets of 21st Century Fox Inc. FOX. Buy @ $111.62 10 shares
= $1,116.20
Merck & Co.: MRK stock has been hit
by concerns about the prospects for cancer drug Keytruda, and upcoming
competition as drugs roll off patent. Those worries have knocked Merck shares
down to attractive levels. It trades for around 14 times forward earnings,
compared with a 10-year average price-to-earnings multiple of 19. This is one
of the highest-quality pharmaceutical companies out there, its strong pipeline
of drug candidates and solid financial strength. Buy @ $56.99 10 shares = $569.90
Fluor Corp.: FLR in engineering and
construction. Nobody can do big construction projects like Fluor, always a RR
favorite. Buy @ $53.41 10 shares = $534.10
Cummins Inc.: CMI which makes engines used in heavy construction equipment
like earth movers. Infrastructure could be a big deal, especially for companies
that will benefit. Two of them happen to look relatively cheap right now (FLR
and CMI), because their dividend yields are not too far from historical highs.
Buy @ $181.46 10 shares = $1,814.60
MRC Global Inc.: MRC a huge distributor of equipment used in energy production
and industry, like pipes, valves and fitting products. The company has been
cutting costs, paying down debt and repurchasing shares. Meanwhile, its
customers are increasing their spending because of strength in energy and the
economy. Buy @ $17.59 10 shares = $175.90
Michaels Cos.: MIK a large arts-and-crafts retail chain. Unlike a lot of
retailers, Michaels isn’t beaten down by worries about competition from Amazon.
But this makes sense because customers like to see and touch crafts products
before they buy them, to make sure they are right for the task at hand. Buy
$24.55 10 shares = $245.50
Tellurian Inc.: TELL an undiscovered company that will become a big player in
liquid natural gas (LNG) exports over the next few years. How do I know this? I
don’t, for sure. But it’s a reasonably safe bet given that CEO and founder
Charif Souki and his management team are responsible for creating 25% of the
LNG export capacity around the globe. Buy @ $11.08 10 shares = $110.80
Lending Club Corp.: LC an online peer-to-peer lending
platform. LendingClub recently tightened its lending standards, which hurt loan
growth, so the company missed earnings estimates and guided down. But it still
expects 15%-20% annual revenue growth over the next few years. This seems
plausible given how many people with OK credit would like to refinance their
credit card debt with loans. Lending Club estimates $300 billion to $350
billion in credit card debt could potentially be refinanced in this way. Buy @
$4.07 10 shares = $40.70
BIRTHDAYS
THIS WEEK
– Birthday wishes and thoughts this week to Bob Earhart …famous pin ball
wizard; Natalie Gulbis (35) Newport
Beach, CA.; Miguel Angel Jimenez (54) Madrid
Spain; Henry Kravis (74) New York,
NY.; Walter Mondale (90) Edina, MN.;
Charles Osgood (85) Whispering Pines,
NC.; Sander Vanocur (90) Tucson, AZ.
2018 WEIGHT
LOSS TIP, SOUP - Soup is a good choice as an appetizer, or your main meal if
you’re trying to lose weight. The water in broth-based soups stretches the
flavor of meats, veggies, spices, and other tasty morsels without adding
calories. It fills your tank faster and satisfies hunger longer than other
heavier foods. Plus, it’s hard to gulp or guzzle soup if it’s hot. Eating
slowly gives your body enough time to signal the brain that you’ve had enough.
Want
your soup ready when you get home at the end of the day? Try using a slow
cooker. They’re great for soups made with meat. Slow-simmering soup boosts
flavors, cuts prep time, and does the cooking while you’re away. It can trim
your budget, too. The slow, low technique tenderizes tough, lean cuts, which
cost less than prime. Always thaw meat before you put it in a slow cooker to be
sure it cooks through.
Many
veggies lose nutrients when you boil them, but a few get better when the heat is
on. Canned tomatoes can be more healthy than vine-ripe because cooking breaks
them down, releasing lycopene and chemicals that are good for your heart.
Processed corn and spinach have more lutein, an antioxidant that protects your
eyes. Have these quick-start items in your pantry for your own homemade soup.
Finally,
scientists have proven what grandmas knew all along: Chicken soup is a
feel-good food when you’re down with a cold. The steamy, salty broth opens
stuffy sinuses and thins mucus so it drains. It warms and soothes sore throats
and quiets coughs. The chicken, onions, garlic, and other stuff in it can help
fight inflammation. But be careful. Too much salt can cause water retention and
contribute to swelling.
Days
until the 2018 election: 301
IRS FILING
SEASON:
Tax-filing season will begin this year on Jan. 29, according to an IRS
announcement Thursday. The agency said that it "set the Jan. 29 opening
date to ensure the security and readiness of key tax processing systems in
advance of the opening and to assess the potential impact of tax legislation on
2017 tax returns." It will run through April 17 rather than the usual
April 15 deadline because April 15 falls on a Sunday and the following day is a
legal holiday in Washington, D.C. - Emancipation Day. The agency also warned
that it won't begin issuing refunds to people claiming the earned income tax
credit or the refundable portion of the child credit until mid-February. That's
because a 2015 law requires the IRS to hang on to those refunds longer so they
can scrutinize them for possible fraud.
TEXTBOOKS,
PENCILS AND TAMPONS: School districts in California and Illinois have begun stocking
student restrooms with free menstrual hygiene products, as legislation aimed at
keeping low-income students in school takes effect this week. In the Golden
State, any middle school or high school where at least 40 percent of students
meet the federal poverty threshold must now offer tampons and sanitary pads in
at least half of the building's restrooms. Illinois' law, IL HB3215 (17R) , is
much more expansive, covering any school serving students in grades six through
12.
At
least three other states are considering similar proposals, aimed at ensuring
that girls who can't afford the products stay in school during their periods
and are able to learn comfortably. Proposals pending in Tennessee and
Washington state would compel schools to offer the products at no cost
regardless of their low-income population, according to the National Conference
of State Legislatures, while a proposal pending in New York targets schools
serving many low-income students.
TRUMP V.
CALIFORNIA, CANNABIS EDITION: Senate President Pro Tem Kevin de León told
us late Thursday he is consulting with former Attorney General Eric Holder on
possible responses to current Attorney General Jeff Sessions' announcement he
was rescinding Obama-era guidelines that had limited marijuana-related
prosecutions in states where the drug was legal under state law. Holder was
enlisted by the state Senate to help battle Trump on multiple fronts last year.
Recreational
marijuana was passed by the voters, so it's constitutional," de León said.
"We are researching ways that we can uphold the Constitution and the will
of the people of California against an overreaching federal government that is
meddling in our state's ability to govern as we see fit."
Meanwhile,
state Attorney General Xavier Becerra said in a prepared statement that his
department will "vigorously enforce our state's laws and protect our
state's interests."
Trump
administration targets recreational pot, placing thousands of marijuana
businesses in California at risk: Atty. Gen. Jeff Sessions is rescinding an
Obama-era federal policy that provided legal shelter for marijuana sales in
states that have allowed recreational pot, placing thousands of marijuana
businesses in California and other states operating legally under state law at
risk of federal raids and seizures.
TRUMP V.
CALIFORNIA, OIL EDITION: - President Trump aims to open California, Florida, Atlantic
waters for oil drilling: The Trump administration unveiled a plan Thursday to
open vast new stretches of federal waters to oil and gas drilling, erasing the
policies put in place by previous Democratic and Republican administrations and
setting up a conflict with state governments fearful about the risk of spills.
Gov.
Jerry Brown joined Oregon Gov. Kate Brown and Washington Gov. Jay Inslee in a
joint statement decrying the proposal. "This political decision to open
the magnificent and beautiful Pacific Coast waters to oil and gas drilling
flies in the face of decades of strong opposition on the part of Oregon,
Washington and California - from Republicans and Democrats alike," the
governors said ... "For more than 30 years, our shared coastline has been
protected from further federal drilling and we'll do whatever it takes to stop
this reckless, short-sighted action."
California
has ample weapons to fight Trump on drilling: In the decades since a 1969 oil
spill near Santa Barbara tarred sea-life and gave rise to the U.S.
environmental movement, politicians and environmental activists have built up
ample ways to make it difficult but not impossible for the Trump administration
to renew drilling off California's coast.
TRUMP V.
CALIFORNIA, TAX EDITION: In an effort to blunt the effects of the federal tax overhaul,
California Democrats on Thursday introduced legislation that would give
California taxpayers an end-run around limits on state income tax deductions.
The measure, dubbed the "Protect California Taxpayers Act," would let
California taxpayers make charitable donations to a state government fund in
exchange for a dollar-for-dollar tax credit. The contributions taxpayers make
to the state could be deducted on their federal tax returns.
The
GOP tax scam offers corporations and hedge fund managers massive tax breaks and
expects California taxpayers and other blue states to pick up the costs of that
windfall from the super rich," Senate President Pro Tem Kevin de León
said. "California is already a huge donor state, meaning we send far more
money to Washington than we get in return. So we don't plan on bankrolling this
trillion dollar tax giveaway as well."
Democrats
are moving the legislation as a majority-vote bill. If enacted, it would take
effect immediately. New California bill could serve as national boilerplate for
skirting Trump's tax law: A California Senate leader introduced legislation
Thursday aimed at circumventing a central plank in the new Republican tax law,
introducing a model that - if successful - could be replicated across the
country.
WAGE WATCH
2018 - Friday's
reading on job creation in the final month of last year will be a sideshow to
what economists and investors both say is the most important question for the
markets and the U.S. economy in the new year: Is the pace of hourly earnings
for Americans kicking into a higher gear?
Higher
wages would be welcome news for Federal Reserve officials, who have long
predicted that a tightening labor market will eventually nudge inflation higher.
Faster inflation readings could alter central bankers' calculus for stimulus
efforts and, more importantly, tip the apple cart in terms of what investors
make when they own risk-free assets such as government bonds.
Average
hourly earnings have increased at a consistently middling rate of about 2.5%
from a year earlier since 2015. That bites at the classical economic tenet that
broad-based demand for employees should eventually reward workers with higher
hourly earnings.
Stagnant
wage gains and muted consumer price increases could hinder U.S. central bankers
from boosting short-term interest rates as quickly as they would like. Fed
officials have penciled in three quarter-point rate increases for this year.
The
U.S. economy added 2 million jobs in 2017, another solid year of gains.
In
December, the economy added 148,000 jobs, according to Labor Department figures
released Friday. That was below what economists expected, but still the 87th
straight month of gains -- the longest streak on record.
Unemployment
remained at 4.1%, matching the lowest level in 17 years.
MARKET WEEK
- New Year,
New Milestone: The Nasdaq Composite closed above 7000 for the first time,
picking up from a strong 2017—when its 28% gain beat the Dow Jones Industrial
Average’s 25% and S&P 500’s 19%—as investors continued to bet on the large
technology companies that are the index heavyweights. The latest 1,000-point
milestone was reached in just over eight months, a pace unseen since the
heights of the technology boom. Though investors and analysts say there are few
signs of a stock bubble today, the recent rapid appreciation in assets from
techs to industrials to bitcoin does have some concerned about the nearly
nine-year bull market. The Nasdaq’s biggest winner in the latest 1,000-point charge
was Riot Blockchain, formerly Bioptix, whose stock surged more than 640%. Once
a maker of diagnostic machinery, the company re-christened itself in October
and shifted to investing in blockchain technology, which underpins virtual
currencies like bitcoin.
GOOD
READ
- "There Is No Case for the Humanities," by Justin Stover in American
Affairs Journal: "In 1773 Samuel Johnson visited the ancient University of
St Andrews ... [which is] one of the twenty or so oldest universities in the
world, formally established by a bull of Pope Benedict XIII in 1413. Three
hundred and fifty years in, it had evidently fallen on hard times. Fewer than
one hundred students remained, and one of its old colleges had been dissolved.
... Yet St Andrews survived. Today it has more than ten thousand students, and
is highly regarded, particularly in the humanities." http://bit.ly/2DwWRQm
GOOD READ
PART DEUX
- N.Y. Times Magazine Sunday January 7
... "The Case for the Subway: It built the city. Now, no matter the cost —
at least $100 billion — the city must rebuild it to survive," by Jonathan
Mahler:
"For
all the changes in transportation technology since the first tunnels were dug
... the subway remains the only way to move large numbers of people around the
city."
"Today,
New York's subway carries close to six million people every day, more than
twice the entire population of Chicago. The subway may no longer be a
technological marvel, but it continues to perform a daily magic trick: It brings
people together, but it also spreads people out."
"It
is this paradox — these constant expansions and contractions, like a beating
heart — that keep the human capital flowing and the city growing.
Why
it matters: "New York's subway has no zones and no hours of operation. It
connects rich and poor neighborhoods alike. The subway has never been
segregated. It is always open, and the fare is always the same no matter how
far you need to go.
OUT AND
ABOUT – The
St. Lawrence University Women ice hockey team visited Southern California this
past week, yes Southern California. While the temperatures were well below zero
back in Canton, New York, the Skating Saints played a two game series versus
Lindenwood University at the Honda Center in Anaheim, California.
The
team lost game #1 5-4, but won game #2 in overtime 2-1. Justine Reyes (’19) of
Chino Hills, California scored the game winner for the Lady Saints in game #2.
Congrats to Coach Chris Wells (’92) for bringing St. Lawrence hockey across the
country.
Many
alumni came out for the games, including Rink Rat friends Tricia (’74) and
Chuck Gomer, and of course Reggie Dunlop.
SWAMI’S WEEK
TOP PICKS
–
NFL Football
Pick of the Week – Saturday 1/13, 4:35 PM EDT, NBC: Divisional Playoff – Atlanta
Falcons (11-6) vs. Philadelphia Eagles (13-3). No QB the Eagles are ripe for an
upset, Falcons win 21 – 15. (Season to date 10-8).
College
Football Pick of the Week – Monday 1/8, 8:00 PM EDT, ESPN: National
Championship – Alabama Crimson Tide (13-1) vs. Georgia Bulldogs (14-1). Roll
Tide 38 – 28. (Season
to date 10-7)
College
Hockey Pick of the Week – Monday 1/13, 7:05 PM EDT FoxOhio: #8 Ohip State Buckeyes (14-4-4)
vs. #14 Penn State Nitany Lions (12-7-3). A Big Ten matchup, Buckeyes win 6 – 4.
Season to date (6-5)
NHL Pick of
the Week – Saturday 1/12, 7:00 PM EDT, CBC: Boston Bruins (23-10-7) visit The
Bell Centre Montreal Canadiens (18-20-4). Les Habs win a good one 4 – 3. Season
to date (9-2).
NBA Pick of
the Week – Saturday 1/12 8:00 PM EDT, FSDetroit: Detroit Pistons (21-17) vs.
Chicago Bulls (14-26), Pistons are playing good basketball, they win in Chicago
97 – 88. (season to date 2-0)
Final 2017 Season
to Date (102 – 73, .583)
DRIVING THE
WEEK - President
Trump speaks Monday afternoon at the American Farm Bureau Federation's Annual
Convention in Nashville and will then attends the college football championship
game in Georgia ... Trump meets with a bipartisan group of Senators on Tuesday
to talk about immigration ...
House
Financial Services has a hearing at 10:00 a.m. on Tuesday on CFIUS ... Senate
Banking has a money laundering hearing at 10:00 a.m. Tuesday ... House
Financial Services has a hearing at 2:00 p.m. on Tuesday on federal financial
regulations.
The
University of La Verne begins what might be their most important Winter Term in
many years: one word; management.
Get
ready it will start, Oprah Winfrey for President….
Next Blog: Dear Rink
Rats
Until
next time, Adios
Claremont,
California
January
8, 2018
#VIII-22-364
CARTOON OF
THE WEEK – Barbara
Smaller, The New Yorker
No comments:
Post a Comment