This
writer has just begun his thirty sixth year of teaching. It began with Business
Mathematics at Tompkins-Cortland Community College and continues today at the
University of La Verne as a cherished vocation.
Changes,
many: naturally in technology, this past summer I taught students from São
Paulo Brazil, Shenzhen China, London England, Portland Oregon, Santiago Chile,
Glendora California. It is amazing how the world has shrunk. My teaching
platforms include online via Blackboard, WebEx and Skype, “on ground”
face-to-face, and hybrid, a combination of online and face-to-face. Changes in administration of higher
education: funding by debt (both student and institution), for profit
competition, and government entitlements.
But
through all these changes the students have remained the same: challenging,
driven for success, nervous about the future, eager to learn. I maintain a
database of every student I have taught (thank you Dan Bricklin and Bob
Frankston's development of VisiCalc). The number totals 4,976 students. To this
day I hear from many in that data base, filling me in on their lives and asking
for feedback and information.
All
the hassles, egos, lack of accountability and common sense in higher education
does not begin to change my thanks and respect to all those 4,976 students and
their making teaching the most rewarding occupation I have had.
NOW, your
Case Study is due at Midnight tonight!!
THE CRISIS,
A DECADE LATER - This coming Saturday, Sept. 15th, marks exactly ten years since
Lehman Brothers filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection, further plunging
the financial industry and the American economy into the worst crisis since the
Great Depression. The economy is now remarkably stronger with joblessness at
just 3.9 percent after spiking above 10 percent in 2009. Economic growth is now
around a 3 percent pace. Politics aside, President Barack Obama and President
Trump both deserve credit some here.
The failure of Lehman Brothers exposed how
cavalier the world had been towards risk. Since then the world has retreated
from risk, reshaping institutions, attitudes and the economy. But risk-taking
never disappears, it just changes shape, to slip past the institutional and psychological
defenses erected after the last crisis. That is already happening.
Banks
are no longer the power brokers on Wall Street. Profits, assets and influence
have moved from investment banks such as Goldman Sachs to money-management
giants such as BlackRock and Vanguard. These firms were once sleepy clients of
Wall Street. Today they direct huge flows of capital and capture the lion’s
share of the finance industry’s fees.
Countless
investors lost faith in financial markets—and never got it back. On Sept. 1,
Barry Popik received a check for $35.98. That legal settlement is all that’s
left of the $25,000 he invested in Lehman Brothers. But money is not all that
Mr. Popik and an untold number of others lost. Their faith in the fairness of
financial markets is also broken.
The
financial crisis changed home buying forever. It was easy—too easy—to buy a
house during the boom years. Not today. Lenders have tightened their standards,
and many banks now view mortgages as a side service to offer to a small group
of wealthier customers rather than a big-volume revenue generator.
The
new mortgage kings are companies you've probably never heard of. The
home-lending business has shifted to specialized mortgage lenders that fall
outside the banking sector. Such nonbanks now have 52% of U.S. mortgage
originations, up from 9% in 2009. They symbolize both the healthy reinvention
of the mortgage market—and how the growth in that market almost exclusively has
been in its less-regulated corner.
What
will trigger the next crisis? The person who predicts the next financial
crisis, and there will be at least one, should get credit for luck rather than
forecasting skill. A decade of extraordinarily low interest rates has created
multiple distortions in the global economy and financial system. Any of those
can unwind painfully but predicting what factors would trigger a global
downturn is near impossible. Potential threats include bad student loans, a
euro exodus, China’s debt levels, Tom Brady retiring, and earthquakes.
COLLEGE
CHRONICLES
– Purdue University Global will no longer require its faculty members to sign a
nondisclosure agreement. The university drew scrutiny after reports that
professors had to sign a four-page document prohibiting them from discussing
such things as "course materials" and "methods of
instruction." The contract also included a one-year non-compete clause.
Administrators say the requirement was a legacy of Kaplan University, the
for-profit institution that Purdue University acquired this year to create
Purdue Global. Before the NDA was dropped, our Goldie Blumenstyk wrote some
smart observations on what its presence signaled about corporate influence in
higher education.
SO WHAT ELSE
IS NEW?
- Harvard University topped The Wall Street Journal/Times Higher Education
College Rankings for the second straight year, followed by its Cambridge
neighbor, the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.
Yale
University, Columbia University and the California Institute of Technology
round out the top five.
The
WSJ/THE rankings emphasize how well a college will prepare students for life
after graduation.
POLITICS 101 - Days
until the 2018 election: 57.
Upcoming
election dates — Sept. 11: New Hampshire primaries. — Sept. 12: Rhode Island
primaries. — Sept. 13: New York (state-level) primaries.
3-2-1 RULE -
When it
comes to keeping your digital files safe, you should follow the 3-2-1 Rule.
Two
of those three are pretty easy. Buy a big honkin’ hard drive and back your
stuff up every once in a while and keep your laptop out of the bathtub. Your
third place should be a cloud-storage service.
In
general, cloud storage works in two ways. One is the everything-everywhere
method: You download an app, which adds a folder to your computer that connects
to your cloud storage. Anything you add to or change in that folder
automatically uploads, then can be downloaded to your other devices. (Some apps
let you choose which folders or files download to a given device.)
The
other approach is to upload everything once, then manage it all through web and
mobile apps instead of keeping it synced to your local machine. I mostly use
the second method, since I don’t want the same photo potentially taking up
space on five devices.
I
like four of the biggest services: Dropbox , Google Drive, Microsoft ’s
OneDrive and Apple’s iCloud. Each offers some storage free, and lots more for a
few bucks a month. Using any of them is better than using none, but they have
important differences. Not all will be for you.
iCloud (5GB free,
2TB for $10/month): If you have an iPhone and/or Mac, you’re likely already
using iCloud to sync contacts, calendars, notes and messages across your Apple
devices. There’s also a good chance you’ve gotten those nagging messages about
how you’re almost out of storage.
If
you upgrade, starting at $1 a month for 50GB of space, iCloud becomes a full-on
backup and sync tool for every file on every Apple device you own, which you
can access in Finder on your Mac or the Files app on iOS. Problem is, you have
to download files every time you want to access them, which will fill your hard
drive fast.
iCloud
shows little love for non-Apple devices, too. The iCloud web app stinks, and
iCloud for Windows is far more complicated to use than other services.
OneDrive
(5GB free,
1TB for $7/month): OneDrive checks all the cloud-storage boxes—works on lots of
devices, easy enough to use, stores all your files—but doesn’t offer much in
the way of uniquely great features. I like On Demand, which can show you synced
files as if they’re local but won’t download them until you open them. On the
other hand, I dread using its slow web interface. You can’t beat the price: $7
a month gets you a terabyte of storage plus a full Microsoft Office 365
subscription with Word, Excel and the rest.
OneDrive
is designed primarily for people who use Microsoft and Windows products every
day. Still, it’s friendlier to other platforms than iCloud is.
Google
Drive (15GB free, 2TB for $10/month): Drive’s best features are Google’s
best features. You can search for the text of handwritten notes or find a
picture just by describing it. The new Quick Access bar guesses, surprisingly
accurately, what you might be looking for every time you open the app.
There’s
also no better place to put your random files if you already work in Google
Docs and store your pictures in Google Photos. It doesn’t have tags or labels
for organizing your stuff, though—Google would rather you just search.
Dropbox (2GB free, 1TB for $10/month): Dropbox is the
only one of these services not owned by a tech giant—that neutrality offers
some advantages. It has a huge number of integrations that allow you to edit
Microsoft Office and AutoCAD files, send huge attachments in Gmail or quickly
share things in Slack.
Dropbox is particularly good at managing multiple devices by only
downloading the files you need on each one and not cluttering your hard drive
with the rest. Dropbox’s version history even keeps past iterations of your
files, too, to save you from a bad edit or accidental delete. I don’t care for
Dropbox’s super-sparse interface, but it’s an impressively robust tool.
Your best choice will be the one that meshes with the products you
already use. You may end up paying for a couple of different services. Most of
my data is in Google Drive, for instance, but I have a free Dropbox account
because its sharing and preview tools are so good. When I need to quickly send
someone a folder full of photos, that’s what I use. I also pay a buck a month
to keep my iPhone backed up through iCloud.
Whichever you choose, put as much of your digital life in there as
possible. All four services offer up to a terabyte or two of space—more than
enough for all your old documents and low-res photos from yesteryear.
Don’t even worry about organizing at first. Step one is just
getting everything off your laptop. All four services make that easy. Google
Drive and iCloud can even monitor your entire computer, uploading everything
they find. Just note, the initial run might take a day or two.
Do the same with your phone, too. For iPhones, iCloud can move all
your photos to the cloud and free up space automatically. Dropbox and Google
Drive also offer camera backup, sucking up all your photos into the cloud.
(Once they’re up there, you can delete all the space-hogging stuff from your
phone.) Dropbox, Google Drive and OneDrive all have built-in document scanners,
so you can file things away just by taking pictures with your phone. You should
also use iCloud or Google Drive to back up your phone in case it ends up in the
toilet.
Eventually, you might come to think of your cloud storage, not
your ever-messy Downloads folder, as a sort of digital home base. When you take
a picture of a bill or scan a business card, stick it in cloud storage. All
your stuff will be easier to search for and more useful when you find it.
BIRTHDAYS
THIS WEEK
– Birthday wishes and thoughts this week to Warren Buffett (88) Omaha, NB;
Tommy Lee Jones (72) Austin,
TX; Claudio Muñoz…famous Accounting Professor; Scott Winterburn ….famous athletic director.
MODERN LOVE - In
America more than a third of marriages now start with an online match-up.
Research
has found that marriages in America between people who meet online are likely
to last longer; such couples profess to be happier than those who met offline.
Negative
emotions about body image existed before the internet, but they are amplified
when strangers can issue snap judgments on attractiveness. Digital dating has
been linked to depression. ... 10% of all newly created dating profiles do not
belong to real people.
The
internet is the second-most-popular way for Americans to meet people of the
opposite sex and is fast catching up with real-world 'friend of a friend' introductions.
BUFFETTOLOGY
- These 10
skills require ZERO talent:
- Being on time
- Work ethic
- Putting in effort
- Being optimistic
- Being passionate
- Being teachable
- Being prepared
- Doing extra
- Being encouraging
- Taking responsibility of one’s own life and
everything in it.
MARKET WEEK – The decade
that followed the financial crisis brought huge amounts of easy money that
propelled markets sharply higher. In the decade to come, investors will have to
reckon with a potentially rockier wind-down of those policies.
Monetary
policy makers are at a crossroads as the 10th anniversary of the Lehman
Brothers collapse approaches this month. Central banks in the U.S., Europe,
Japan and China still have balance sheets totaling more than $20 trillion and
that, in aggregate, continue to grow. But HSBC estimates that these balance
sheets are stabilizing relative to gross domestic product and are set to start
shrinking by that measure later in the year.
The
move to pull away that support for global markets would come at a time when
many assets are already trading at high prices relative to history and
investors are wondering how much longer the bull market can last.
“If
QE was designed to encourage risk-seeking behavior in investors then its
reverse is showing signs of an increase in risk aversion,” said HSBC
researchers, led by Steven Major, in a research report.
After
stemming the biggest fallout from the crisis, policy makers sought to help the
global economy rebound by keeping rates at record lows and buying up large
swaths of the financial markets through quantitative easing programs meant to
boost the economy.
That
has been a key factor behind the robust stock market gains during the longest
U.S. bull market on record because it fueled risk-taking behavior among
investors, many analysts believe. The size of the bond market also exploded
during this period, as low rates fueled a borrowing frenzy.
Now,
the Federal Reserve has already begun to shrink its balance sheet. The Bank of
England has been raising interest rates. The European Central Bank has signaled
that it may stop buying up assets by the end of the year.
The
unprecedented nature of central banks’ post-crisis actions means no one knows
exactly how their reversal will impact markets. But it’s clear that what
central banks gave to investors during the first 10 years after the crisis,
they are set to starting taking back during the next 10 years.
The
tightening job market in August delivered workers the largest single-month wage
boost in nearly a decade as the economy added 201,000 jobs, the government
reported Friday.
"Average
hourly earnings rose 2.9 percent over the previous year — up from July's 2.7
percent and the biggest jump since June 2009. The unemployment rate was 3.9
percent, unchanged from July. The numbers paint an improving portrait of the
economy two months ahead of the midterm elections.
COAL - Despite
heightened concerns about climate change and a slowdown in financing, coal
remains king in power generation, accounting for as much of the world’s
electricity as it did two decades ago.
U.S.
exports of coal more than doubled in 2017 and are set to grow this year,
according to the Energy Information Administration. With their economies
growing, countries across Asia and Africa are expected to increase their use of
coal for expanding power generation through 2040.
Government
officials in developing countries, many of whom say they want to curb the use
of coal to combat climate change, often face the challenge of doing so without
slowing economic growth.
NBA SCHEDULE - Christmas
Day schedule: Celtics vs. Sixers (mouth-watering), Bucks vs. Knicks (hopefully
Giannis jumps over Tim Hardaway's entire body again), Thunder vs. Rockets
(Haha, Melo), Lakers vs. Warriors (because of course).
SWAMI’S WEEK
TOP PICKS
–
NFL Football Pick of the Week – Sunday 9/16, 4:25 PM ET, CBS: New England
Patriots (1-0) at Jacksonville Jaguars (1-0). Early test for both clubs, can
the Jags defense limit Brady. Nope, Pats
28 Jags 17 (Season to date 0-1)
College Football Pick of the Week – Saturday
9/15, 3:30 PM ET, CBS: #5 LSU Tigers (2-0) visit #7 Auburn Tigers (2-0). At
home, too much defense, LSU no can do; Auburn
35 LSU 27. (Season to date 0-1)
D-III Football Pick of the Week – Saturday 9/15, 1:00 PM ET, HGTV: St.
Lawrence University Saints (1-1) at #5 SUNY Brockport Golden Eagles (2-0). How
good is Dan Puckhaber’s Saints, we will soon find out. Golden Eagles are a
Empire 8 powerhouse. SUNY 38 Saints 21. (Season to date 0-1)
SCIAC Game of the Week (women’s volleyball) – Wednesday 9/12, 7:00 PM
PT: University of La Verne Leopards
(4-4, 0-0) visit #11 California Lutheran Regals (6-2, 0-0). The SCIAC opener
for both teams, La Verne needs to get off to a good start against one of the
teams they need to beat out for playoff consideration. Leopards win 3 – 2. (Season
to date 1-0)
MLB Game of the Week – Saturday 9/15; Los Angeles Dodgers (78-65)
vs. St. Louis Cardinals (79-64). Two playoff battling teams, with three weeks
left, a key game: Dodgers win 6 – 4.
Season to Date (34 -23)
ON THIS DATE
- 130 years
on this date George Eastman received a patent for his camera that used roll
film and registered his trademark of Kodak.
DRIVING THE
WEEK - President
Trump will observe the Sept. 11th anniversary on Tuesday at a Flight 93
memorial service ... Senate this week expected to confirm Charlies Rettig to
head the IRS ... Senate Banking has a hearing on Wednesday at 2:30 p.m. on
countering Russia and on Thursday at 10:00 a.m. on implementation of S. 2155
(115), the "Implementation of the Economic Growth, Regulatory Relief, and
Consumer Protection Act" ... Apple on Wednesday expected to roll out
several new versions of the iPhone, among other products.
Monday:
First day of Rosh Hashanah; World Suicide Prevention Day; earnings (Sonos)
Tuesday:
17th anniversary of the 9/11 terrorist attacks; JOLTS
Wednesday:
Apple's annual event; Global Climate Action Summit; Fed's beige book released
Thursday:
CPI; jobless claims; Turkey's central bank is expected to hike interest rates;
earnings (Kroger)
Friday:
Retail sales; consumer sentiment
Next Blog: September 17 - #MeToo Update, Words of the
Month
Until
next time, Adios
Claremont,
California
September
10, 2018
#IX-10-378
CARTOON OF
THE WEEK – The New
Yorker
RINK RATS
POLL –
What do these letters mean?
PMP, CSM, CISM, CRISC, ITILv3F, MCSE, CGEIT
____ The genetic code of
the common cold
____ An individual who
has too many higher education degrees
____ A new gambling game
in Las Vegas
____ A lousy manager
QUOTE OF THE
MONTH
– "Educating the mind without
educating the heart is no education at all." – Aristotle
Rink Rats is a blog
of weekly observations, predictions and commentary. We welcome your comments
and questions. Also participate in our monthly poll. Rink Rats is now viewed in
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Posted at Rink Rats The Blog: First Published – May 3, 2010
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