Friday, October 4, 2019

Ten Things to Tell You


1).  RISKY BORROWING MAKES A COMEBACK — A decade after reckless home lending nearly destroyed the financial system, the business of making risky loans is back. This time the money is bypassing the traditional, and heavily regulated, banking system and flowing through a growing network of businesses that stepped in to provide loans to parts of the economy that banks abandoned after 2008.

It's called shadow banking, and it is a key source of the credit that drives the American economy. With almost $15 trillion in assets, the shadow-banking sector in the United States is roughly the same size as the entire banking system of Britain, the world's fifth-largest economy.

Welcome to October — It can be a very spooky month for stocks with giant drops in 1929, 1987 and 2008. But October is actually the third best month for stocks over the last 20 years. 

Still, with impeachment and China trade on everyone's mind, we could be in for a ride.

What has us worried this October is the fact that September this year was historically calm. ... Markets don't stay calm forever and after a dull market last month, we could be due for some usual October volatility.

2).  IMPEACHMENT - Remember that impeachment, which only takes a majority vote in the House, doesn’t end Trump’s presidency.

That only happens if two-thirds of the Senate votes to convict and remove him — 67 senators if they all show up.

The wall gets weaker if you factor in Trump’s approval ratings. They’re negative in some of the states he won in 2016.

But even if all of those senators jumped ship — which is a stretch — he'd still have more than enough votes to block conviction.

That would only change if he started to lose senators from states where he's still popular, too.

By the numbers: 36 Republican senators represent Trump states where he’s still popular. 15 of them are up for re-election.

15 Republican senators represent Trump states where his approval ratings are underwater, but only 4 of them are up for re-election.

Trump could lose 17 senators from his red wall — or 19 Republicans if Collins and Gardner were in the mix — and still stay in office.

Trump believes the combination of right-wing media backing, plus GOP senators' fear of crossing Trump voters will save him.

3). THE COSMIC CRISP - A new apple variety, the Cosmic Crisp, launches this fall.

For 50 years, Red Delicious was the most-grown apple in the U.S. That came to an end last harvest season, when Gala took over the throne. Some in the industry consider Red Delicious “obsolete.”

The first crossbreed that led to the Cosmic Crisp apple was made in 1997. It's hitting shelves this year, so we count 22 years of testing before launch.

It could be worth it. According to insiders, bringing the Cosmic Crisp to grocery stores may be “the largest launch of a single produce item in American history.”

So how do you market an apple? The Cosmic Crisp is partnering with a theater production of Johnny Appleseed and a group of social media influencers.

The Cosmic Crisp’s biological identity, under patent as WA 38, is owned by Washington State University. Cosmic Crisp growers must pay royalties on every tree they buy and every box they sell.

4).  BIRTHDAYS THIS WEEK – Birthday wishes and thoughts this week to Karen Ball …famous sister, Devorah Lieberman …famous College President, Bruce Springsteen (70), Karla Suffredini …famous sister,

5).  CATHOLIC CHURCH - Nearly 1,700 priests and other clergy members that the Roman Catholic Church considers credibly accused of child sexual abuse are living under the radar with little to no oversight from religious authorities or law enforcement, decades after the first wave of the church abuse scandal roiled U.S. dioceses, an Associated Press investigation has found.

These priests, deacons, monks and lay people now teach middle-school math. They counsel survivors of sexual assault. They work as nurses and volunteer at nonprofits aimed at helping at-risk kids. They live next to playgrounds and day care centers. They foster and care for children.

And in their time since leaving the church, dozens have committed crimes, including sexual assault and possessing child pornography, the AP’s analysis found.

A recent push by Roman Catholic dioceses across the U.S. to publish the names of those it considers to be credibly accused has opened a window into the daunting problem of how to monitor and track priests who often were never criminally charged and, in many cases, were removed from or left the church to live as private citizens.

6).  RED SNAPPER - This October marks the 80th anniversary of the bloody mary. The iconic brunch cocktail was created at the St. Regis Hotel's King Cole Bar in 1934 by bartender Fernand Petiot.

The history behind the Bloody Mary is a beautiful cocktail fairytale which began in the center of an iconic bar in Manhattan.

The St. Regis Hotel was founded by John Jacob Astor IV one of the wealthiest men in Manhattan. While abroad, Astor's son in law, Serge Obolensky, met bartender Fernand Petiot in Paris. Obelensky brought Petiot to NYC to be the bartender of the King Cole Bar at the St. Regis.

Obolensky had a penchant for vodka (he had Russian aristocratic roots afterall) and asked the bartender to make the vodka cocktail he had in Paris. Petiot made the cocktail and spiced it up with salt, pepper, lemon, and Worcestershire sauce and presto! The Bloody Mary was born. The St. Regis deemed the "Bloody Mary" too vulgar of a name for the grand King Cole Bar, so it was renamed the "Red Snapper".

The Red Snapper is now the signature cocktail of the King Cole Bar, one of NYC's most iconic spots to enjoy a libation in the world. This October, in celebration of the 80th anniversary, the King Cole Bar is featuring a special anniversary cocktail menu. There are numerous variations of the Bloody Mary to choose from with recipes from The Lion, Fat Radish, The Dutch, A.O.C, and more. And if you need ANOTHER reason to indulge in a few bloodies at the King Cole Bar this month, a percentage of the proceeds from the sale of all Bloody Mary cocktails during October will benefit City Meals-on-Wheels.

The King Cole Bar (2 E 55th St, New York, NY)

7).  TOP TEN SPORT FRANCHISES - The Dallas Cowboys. And you don’t need to be named Tony Romo to have predicted this—the Cowboys have topped Forbes’s list for four straight years. Here's the rest of the top 10, along with their valuations:

Dallas Cowboys: $5 billion
New York Yankees: $4.6 billion
Real Madrid: $4.24 billion
Barcelona: $4.02 billion
New York Knicks: $4 billion

Manchester United: $3.81 billion
New England Patriots: $3.8 billion
Los Angeles Lakers: $3.7 billion
Golden State Warriors: $3.5 billion
Tie between New York Giants and Los Angeles Dodgers: $3.3 billion

8).  YOUTH SPORTS EXODUS - The average child today spends less than three years playing a sport and quits by age 11, according to a new survey of sports parents conducted by the Aspen Institute and Utah State University.

On top of that, only 28% of kids aged 6 to 12 played team sports on a regular basis in 2018, down from 45% in 2008, per the Sports & Fitness Industry Association.

For parents who see the benefits of their kids playing sports and for a nation in the midst of a childhood obesity epidemic, keeping kids active is extremely important.

According to the survey, three of the main reasons kids quit sports are (1) a lack of fun, (2) bad coaches and (3) financial pressure. It's that third reason — financial pressure — that I'd like to focus on.

The youth sports economy has always been big business, but as competitive travel teams have crept into increasingly younger age groups over the past decade, the industry has doubled in size to more than $15 billion.

The result is a world of private coaching, interstate travel and mega-complexes (look at this place!) full of families willing — and able — to spend as much as $20,000 per year on youth sports.

"They may be holding back on vacation or on a car, but they will make certain that Susie goes to the cheerleading competition in Orlando and Johnny gets to his Little League tournament in Georgia."

Youth sports in America is becoming a story of the haves and the have-nots. I don't know about you, but I absolutely hate it.

9).  SWAMI’S WEEK TOP PICKS

NFL Football Pick of the Week – Sunday 10/6, 1:25 PM (PT), FOX: Green Bay Packers (3-1) vs. Dallas Cowboys (3-1). Are the Cowboys for real? No, Packers win in Dallas 24 – 21. (Season to Date 3-1)

NFL Football Pick of the Week – Sunday 10/13, 1:05 PM (PT), FOX: San Francisco 49ers (3-0) vs. Los Angeles Rams (3-2). Rams bounce back from two straight losses to win big, 40 – 20.

College Football Pick of the Week – Saturday 10/5, 12:00 PM (ET), FOX: #14 Iowa Hawkeyes (4-0) vs. #19 Michigan Wolverines (3-1). Jim, time to start coaching… Blue wins 27 – 20. (Season to Date 4-2)

College Football Pick of the Week – Saturday 10/12, 12:00 PM (ET), FS1: #6 Oklahoma Sooners (4-0) vs. #11 Texas Longhorns (3-1). Soooooweee 38 – 28.

DIII College Football Pick of the Week – Saturday 10/5 1:00 PM (ET), HGTV: #11 Ithaca College Bombers (3-0) vs. St. Lawrence University Saints (2-2). Appleton Arena is not the only thing being rebuilt at St. Lawrence; The Saints are too young for the boys from South Hill. IC wins big, 45 – 20. (Season to Date 3-1)

DIII College Football Pick of the Week – Saturday 10/12, 2:00 PM (ET), HGTV: #7 Bethel Royals (3-0) vs. #4 St. Johns Johnnies (3-0). A huge MIAC conference match up, Johnnies prevail 32 -30.

SCIAC Pick of the Week (Volleyball) – Friday 10/4, 7:00 (PT), Hallmark: Chapman University Panthers (14-2) vs. University of La Verne Leopards (10-6). First place is on the line in this SCIAC thriller, Leopards win 3 – 2.  (Season to Date 3-1)

SCIAC Pick of the Week (Football) – Saturday 10/12, 7:00 PM (PT), Hallmark: #18 University of Redlands SATs (3-0) vs. Chapman University Panthers (2-0). This early conference game could decide the SCIAC Champ, Panthers win a close one 30 – 28.

MLB Pick of the Week – The Swami likes a Los Angeles Dodgers, New York Yankees World Series match up. (Season to Date 9-4)

English Premier League Pick of the Week – Saturday 10/5, 7:00 AM (PT) NBCSN: Liverpool Reds (7-0) visit Leicester City Foxes (4-2-1). Can the Reds stay undefeated, Yes 3 – 1.    (Season to Date 2-4)

2019 Season to Date (38-25)


10).  ANDREW TOMPKINS – We lost a fine young man this past month, Andrew Tompkins, 21. He was a student/athlete at the University of La Verne, he died of cancer. Andrew was a business student who embraced life’s challenges with love and spirit.

Though he is no longer with us, his spirit and soul will live on. In these difficult times, his positive spirit I know will guide this writer to become a better human being.

God Bless Andrew Tompkins.


Next Blog:  Words of the Month, Dear Rink Rats, and NHL ’19-20 Season picks

Until next time Monday October 14, Adios

Claremont, California

October 4, 2019
(Weekend Edition)
#X-10-399
1,993 words, five minute read

CARTOON OF THE WEEK – The New Yorker, Julia Suits





RINK RATS POLL – Will President Trump complete his Presidency?
_____     Yes
_____     No
_____     Don’t Care
_____     Who is President Trump?


QUOTE OF THE MONTH – “A person is smart. People are dumb.”
Atticus Finch, “To Kill a Mockingbird”

Rink Rats is a blog of weekly observations, predictions and commentary. We welcome your comments and questions. Also participate in our monthly poll. Rink Rats is now viewed in Europe, Canada, South America and the United States.

Posted at Rink Rats The Blog: First Published – May 3, 2010
Our Tenth Year.

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