Tuesday, December 31, 2019

Good Night Now


So, we conclude 2019 and the decade, let us quickly review and move on to bigger and better things.

2019 personally was a rough year: the loss of three close friends, some illness in the family has taken its’ toll, and I have had about enough of listening in a variety of platforms to the “me, myself, and I” views of the world.

So let us look at some observations of the past year and decade.

Happy New Year to all my friends, associates, and RR readers – let us hope for a positive and healthy 2020. Selfless not selfies.

DECADE OF MOVEMENTS - Arab Spring: A fruit vendor setting himself on fire in 2010 galvanized national protests of Tunisia's corrupt and autocratic regime. The demonstrations, widely shared using mobile devices and social media, fanned out across the Middle East to Bahrain, Jordan, Kuwait, Libya, Yemen, Egypt, and Syria.

Occupy Wall Street: Inspired by the tactics of Arab Spring, counterculture magazine editors organized a NYC sit-in protesting economic inequality and the failures of democracy. The sit-in lasted for months, and during that time sister protests popped up around the world. Occupy's cofounder said its "constructive failure" created traction for future movements like...

Black Lives Matter: After a jury acquitted George Zimmerman, the man who shot and killed unarmed black teenager Trayvon Martin, the Black Lives Matter hashtag was created. The grassroots movement spread on social media, bringing attention to systemic police violence against black Americans.

MeToo: In 2017, actress Alyssa Milano used #MeToo and encouraged individuals to speak about their experiences with sexual harassment and assault on Twitter. The many survivors who came forward exposed the alleged egregious conduct of some high-profile figures in business, entertainment, and politics, including Harvey Weinstein and Matt Lauer.

MeToo and parallel movements like Time's Up reflected a broader trend toward feminist activism. In Jan. 2017, millions participated in Women's Marches around the world (mass demonstrations that originated through Facebook).

March for Our Lives: High school shooting survivors rallied in the U.S. capital in March 2018, bringing together 200,000+ attendees and inspiring hundreds of sister marches. Organizers launched national voting drives to mobilize and register young voters. 

Climate Strikes: Swedish environmental activist Greta Thunberg kick started weekly, student-led protests calling for more government action to address climate change. The youth-led movement brought together millions around the world to march in over 3,600 strikes this September.

What ties them together - Young people took charge. And they used social media to spark leaderless, decentralized movements like the ongoing pro-democracy protests in Hong Kong.

But ease of organization doesn't always mean better outcomes. Compared to 10 years ago, social movement success rates declined about 20% due to a failure to build durable leadership and organizing structures.

While some movements have petered out, the passion they mobilized was often redirected into other forms of activism or political campaigns.

These movements featured broad missions and visions that pulled from feminism, racial justice, immigration, economic equality, and climate awareness. And they demonstrated both the power and limitations of the internet as a tool for mass organizing.

HOW WE MET - This 2019 study from Stanford University shows how innovation in communications technology has disrupted traditional social networks, especially when it comes to dating.

Over 25 million Americans are expected to use dating apps this year. While user growth is slowing, half of U.S. singles still use (or have tried) a dating app. 

That's a big business opportunity. Over 2,200 dating services companies in the U.S. are projected to bring in ~$3 billion this year, according to IBISWorld. Nearly a quarter of that revenue comes from mobile dating apps, which are growing faster than any other dating services segment.

MOODS - America's youth is suffering from a mental health crisis. That's the conclusion of the American Psychological Association's March report, which showed spiking mental health disorders among 18- to 25-year-olds, including depression, anxiety, and suicidal thoughts.

Where experts are pointing fingers: countless hours spent on social media, communication tech that moved friendships from backyards to apps, and less sleep.

Psychologists are worried those mental health issues are impacting young people's self-perception and ability to handle tense social interactions and pressures at school and work.

Some experts note that the spike, relative to older generations, may not be as dramatic as it looks because young people, in general, seem more willing to admit they're distressed.

WORDS OF THE DECADE - These are Merriam Webster's words of the year for the decade (plus some new lingo added to the dictionary).

2010: Austerity
2011: Pragmatic
2012: Socialism and capitalism
2013: Science
2014: Culture
2015: -ism (Socialism, Fascism, Racism, Feminism, Communism)

New words from the first half of the decade: fist bump, tweet, bromance, parkour, man cave, underwater, earworm, bucket list, gastropub, twerking, hashtag, selfie, catfish, unfriend, crowdfunding, big data, emoji, net neutrality, meme, clickbait, jegging, NSFW

2016: Surreal
2017: Feminism
2018: Justice
2019: They—gender neutral pronoun to be used in place of "he" or "she"

New words: gig economy, swole, stan, deep state, dad joke, FOMO, revenge porn, froyo, weak sauce, photobomb, listicle, facepalm, bougie, TL;DR, bingeable, airplane mode, fintech, zoodle, Latinx

MARKET 2019 – U.S. stocks are poised for their best annual performance in six years, driven by a handful of big technology stocks, such as Apple Inc. and Microsoft Corp. , that have powered the decade long bull-market run.

An improving economic outlook, progress between the U.S. and China on trade negotiations and three interest-rate cuts by the Federal Reserve have renewed investors’ faith that the expansion can continue.

With one trading day left in 2019, the benchmark S&P 500 has surged 28%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite has risen 35%. Both indexes are hovering within 1% of their record levels set last week and are on track for their biggest gains since 2013 when they climbed 30% and 38%, respectively.

Meanwhile, the 30-stock Dow Jones Industrial Average has increased 22%—its best performance since 2017.

The tech sector has led much of the advance. The group has risen 47% in the S&P 500 this year, by far the biggest gain among the index’s 11 sectors. It is responsible for 31% of the index’s total return for the year, which includes dividends, according to data as of Friday from S&P Dow Jones Indices.

Tech companies comprise more than a quarter of the value of America’s stock markets:

Tech's big five — Microsoft, Amazon, Apple, Alphabet (Google’s parent) and Facebook — make up half of the industry's market capitalization.

The last time tech companies were so important was back in 2000, when they were briefly worth a third of the value of all listed equities in America.

Compared with the dotcom bubble, the ... prevailing concern is not that tech firms are too flimsy to justify their valuations, but that their position is too powerful.

In Aug. 2018, Apple became the first company in history to reach a $1 trillion valuation. One month later, Amazon joined the club (though has since fallen back to the billions), and this April, so did Microsoft. But it's not just the number of 0's that has regulators and other businesses worried. These big tech companies have evolved from mostly singular missions (search engines, retail, phones) to businesses than span content creation, cloud computing, artificial intelligence, ad platforms, self-driving cars, and more.

The ease with which they take over new markets (and squash or suck up smaller players) has regulators worried. Over the last few years, calls for antitrust action and breaking up Big Tech have grown (though Microsoft, which already has one antitrust suit under its belt, has largely been spared this round).

INVESTING - According to Bank of America, if you invested $1 in _______ in 2010, you’d have over $90,000 today.

Answer at the end of RR.

COLLEGE CHRONICLES – The decade of Higher Education litigation's continue: The fallout from Occidental College’s decision to cancel the Football team’s five remaining games in 2017 due to safety concerns related to the dwindling size of the program’s roster.

The decision led to so much animosity between the Football Student Athletes and Athletic Director Jaime Hoffman that the female AD felt threatened on campus and at her home, student athletes submitted a complaint to the school’s Title IX office accusing the administration of an “ardent anti-male bias,” and Hoffman was relieved of her duties in August of 2018 nearly a year after she was hospitalized for what she describes as a “mental break.” Hoffman has since filed a lawsuit against Occidental, accusing the school of gender discrimination, whistle-blower retaliation, and failure to accommodate disability.

As part of the suit, Hoffman is asking for her job back and compensation for emotional distress, but she also hopes her lawsuit can lead to institutional change for women at Occidental and other NCAA schools. Hoffman: “This is a trend in athletics in higher ed. It's easier to get rid of the women.” Also of note is the reflection from one former student athlete, whose team hurled a barrage of invective at Hoffman when she delivered the initial news: "I feel like, how are you going to judge her for how she acts in that horrible situation? It kind of feels like her and our team were set on a collision course."

THE TRUMP YEARS - No matter your politics, the first three years of Donald Trump's presidency have been undeniably memorable. Besides driving endless Twitter traffic, Trump's left a lasting imprint on the business world.

Trade - Business leaders knew Trump was a protectionist, but few could've imagined the 17-month trade war he'd wage with China. Tit-for-tat tariffs between the world's biggest economies limited global economic growth to a projected 3.2% this year and battered Europe. 

Tariffs have hurt some of the industries they were meant to protect (like agriculture and steel), disrupted supply chains, and muted capital investments. We'll find out whether they'll ultimately deliver concessions from China as intended.

Courts - The Trump administration and Senate Republicans have confirmed 150+ federal judges, which many legal scholars expect will result in more conservative decisions.

Regulation - President Trump's administration instituted a "one in, one out" policy for new regulations and eased or rolled back hundreds of existing or planned rules. Many businesses that felt handcuffed by the Obama administration's strict oversight have welcomed the shift.

Trump's also repealed many environmental regulations, much to the displeasure of climate activists.

Taxes - The 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act dropped the corporate tax rate from 35% to 21%, which the administration said would spur economic growth and create jobs. A year after it was passed, the Congressional Research Service found little effect on growth and jobs and suspected that the trade war dampened any of the gains.

ON THIS DATE - Today marks 20 years since Vladimir Putin became Russia's president — on Dec. 31, 1999. 
Also, it was announced today, the Donald J. Trump Presidential Library will have Moscow, Russia as its location.

TOP FIVE WORST AIRPORTS –

1.      Southwest Florida International Airport (RSW)
2.      Detroit Metropolitan Wayne County Airport (DTW)
3.      Fort Lauderdale International Airport (FLL)
4.      Chicago Midway International Airport (MDW)
5.      Orlando International Airport (MCO)

WORK - The U.S. unemployment rate fell from almost 10% at the start of the decade to 3.5% at the Bureau of Labor Statistics’s last count. BLS's 2009 predictions that employment growth would be concentrated in the services sector, especially professional/business services and healthcare/social assistance, were pretty spot on.

While manufacturing technically posted a net gain over the decade, it was still home to some of the worst-performing sub-industries over the last 10 years, including many apparel manufacturing sectors.

This year, BLS predicted that the U.S. economy will add 8.4 million jobs from 2018 to 2028, which would be less than the preceding 10 years. Some of the fastest-growing occupations are in solar panel installation, wind turbine servicing, home health and personal care, and occupational therapy.

The growth of technology platforms connecting workers to one-off jobs has made gig and freelance work an increasingly powerful force in the U.S. economy. As we close out this decade...

29% of U.S. workers have an alternative work arrangement as their primary job (Gallup)

36% of U.S. workers participate in the gig economy full- or part-time (also Gallup)

11% more workers freelance full-time compared to 2014 (Upwork)

$1.3 trillion in revenue is brought in by independent workers (MBO Partners)

53% of Gen Z workers freelanced this year (Upwork)

Not all gig economy jobs make workers better off, says Gallup. While many freelancers have flexible and comfortable arrangements, contingent gig workers (like contractors and temps) are often treated like employees...but aren't treated to the benefits.

Some politicians are trying to change that. This year, California passed a bill that would make gig companies like Uber and Lyft reclassify workers as employees instead of independent contractors—upping the protections they'd receive and putting severe pressure on those employers.

TAXES – If you paid just $1 in taxes in 2018, you paid more than Amazon, Netflix, Chevron, and 57 other billion-dollar companies.

Following a lobbying blitz that kept Treasury officials in constant meetings, the "tax bills of many big companies have ended up even smaller" than expected when President Trump signed the 2017 tax cut.

The federal government may collect hundreds of billions of dollars less over the coming decade than previously projected.

The budget deficit has jumped more than 50 percent since Mr. Trump took office and is expected to top $1 trillion in 2020, partly as a result of the tax law.

The Treasury Department will again borrow $1 trillion to pay for tax cuts and Federal spending for the second consecutive year in 2020.

FINANCE 101 –

Reagan (R): increased deficit by $105 billion.
Bush (R): increased deficit by $125 billion.
Clinton (D): eliminated deficit.
Bush (R): increased deficit by $1.2 trillion.
Obama (D): decreased deficit by $600 billion.
Trump (R): increased deficit by $1.0 trillion.

Notice a pattern?

BIRTHDAYS THIS WEEK – Birthday wishes and thoughts this week to Ashleigh Banfield (52), Anthony Hopkins (82), Sandy Koufax (94), Victoria Principal (70), Stephen Stills (75)

2019 MOVIE GLOBAL BOX OFFICE –

1.      Avengers: Endgame (Disney)                       $2.80 billion
2.      The Lion King (Disney)                                 $1.66 billion
3.      Frozen 2 (Disney)                                         $1.22 billion
4.      Spider-Man: Far from Home (Sony)            $1.13 billion
5.      Captain Marvel (Disney)                               $1.13 billion

Not a bad year for Disney, a bad year for creative screen-plays.

BOOKS 2019 – In the summer of 2018, Putnam published an unusual debut novel by a retired wildlife biologist named Delia Owens. The book, which had an odd title and didn’t fit neatly into any genre, hardly seemed destined to be a blockbuster, so Putnam printed about 28,000 copies.

It wasn’t nearly enough.

A year and a half later, the novel, “Where the Crawdads Sing,” an absorbing, atmospheric tale about a lonely girl’s coming-of-age in the marshes of North Carolina, has sold more than four and a half million copies. It’s an astonishing trajectory for any debut novelist, much less for a reclusive, 70-year-old scientist, whose previous published works chronicled the decades she spent in the deserts and valleys of Botswana and Zambia, where she studied hyenas, lions and elephants.

“Where the Crawdads Sing” has sold more print copies than any other adult title in 2019, blowing away competition by John Grisham, Margaret Atwood and Stephen King.

SOCIAL MEDIAS PLAN DINNER IN A GROUP CHAT -

Facebook: Hey everyone, hoping to plan din for tonight, how do people feel about Thai? Also, my handsome son just graduated look how handsome he is

LinkedIn: I endorse your leadership skills in choosing the dinner spot

*MySpace has left the conversation*

Facebook: Thank god lol

Twitter: Well this dinner blew up. I've got nothing to promote, so follow me on SoundCloud

Vine: Haha potatoes

*Vine has left the conversation*

Facebook: Where did Vine go? Vine was hilarious :( also my son is so handsome he got a job

LinkedIn: Where does your handsome son work? Hoping to connect further. Best

Twitter: No idea where Vine went lmao

Venmo: I'll pay you for "dinner

Snapchat: y so ~sketch~ Venmo

Venmo: My mom has this

Snapchat: tru

Yik Yak: All of you were horrible in your respective high school plays. Everyone laughed at you

Facebook: Can we pivot to Russian for tonight? No reason

Twitter: Look facebook is the evil one

Facebook: JK can't do tonight anymore guys going to Congress. Also my son got a promotion

LinkedIn: Congrats, Handsome Son!

Rink Rats: “Some of you might not get this parody, but if you do God save us.”

SPORTS HAS A TIME PROBLEM – A round of golf takes six hours on any public course on a weekend. Golfers take ages to line up shots, baseball games last longer than "Godfather" movies. It's time to pick up the pace.

DAVE “THE HAMMER” SHULTZ - Thanks to rule changes and teams prioritizing speed and skill, the "enforcer" role has all but gone extinct in the modern NHL.

TOP SIX TEAMS NHL SEASON POINTS 2010 – 2019:

Washington Capitals (1 Stanley Cup)                      1,020
Pittsburgh Penguins (2 Stanley Cups)                     1,006
Boston Bruins (1 Stanley Cup)                                 988
St. Louis Blues (1 Stanley Cup)                                 983
Tampa Bay Lightning                                                  952
Chicago Black Hawks (3 Stanley Cups)                     951

Note: LA Kings have the other 2 Stanley Cups.

SWAMI’S WEEK TOP PICKS

NFL Football Pick of the Week – Sunday 1/4, 4:35 PM (EDT), ESPN: Buffalo Bills (10-6) at Houston Texans (10-6). We like the Bills in this one, Houston has too many “ifs”. 24 – 20 (Season to Date 8-4)


Breaking News: The Swami likes a San Francisco 49er vs. Kansas City Chiefs Super Bowl on February 2 in Miami.

College Football Pick of the Week – Wednesday 1/1, 1:00 PM (EDT), ABC: #14 University of Michigan Wolverines (9-3) vs. #13 University of Alabama Crimson Tide (10-2). The beginning of the end for Mr. Harbaugh, Roll Tide 48 – 20.  (Season to Date 10-3)

College Hockey Pick of the Week – Saturday 1/4, 7:07 PM (MDT), FSN: #9 University of Massachusetts Minutemen (13-4-1) at #7 University of Denver Pioneers (11-4-3). Coach Greg Carvel’s (St. Lawrence ’93) Minutemen will skate to an upset in Magness Arena 5 – 3.  (Season to Date 2-0)

NHL Pick of the Week – Saturday 1/1, 11:00 AM (PDT)), NBC:   This twelfth version of the Winter Classic in Dallas Texas, yes that is right Dallas Texas. Nashville Predators (18-14-6, 42 points) vs. Dallas Stars (22-14-4, 48 points). Not the most exciting schedule for the NHL’s version of the Super Bowl. Dallas wins 4 – 2. (Season to Date 2-0)

NHL Power Rankings (Half-way point of season):

     1). Washington Capitals (27-8-5, 58 points)

   2). Boston Bruins (24-7-9, 57 points)
   3). St. Louis Blues (26-8-6, 58 points)
   4). New York Islanders (24-10-3, 51 points)
   5). Pittsburgh Penguins (24-11-4, 52 points)

2019 Season to Date (57-32)


ANSWERS - The answer to the fill in the blank question is bitcoin.

Cryptocurrencies were one of the best-performing assets this decade.
That's mainly due to bitcoin. Bitcoin is a digital currency created in 2009, and for the first half of the 2010s it flitted between obscurity and heavy skepticism from consumers, the finance industry, and governments. Then all hell broke loose in 2017, when it shot up to nearly $20k and turned some early backers into millionaires. Now...some are comparing bitcoin to the financial bubbles of centuries past.

But over the latter half of the decade, something happened. Cryptos like Ethereum, Ripple, Litecoin, and (yes) bitcoin gained more legitimacy. Wall Street started thawing, and this year Facebook corralled some of the biggest names in payments, banking, investment, and tech to back a cryptocurrency project, the Libra Association. While that's run into opposition, the association still marks a level of institutional backing that bitcoin couldn't have dreamt of in 2010.

Next Blog:  2020 what next?.

Until Monday January 13, 2020 Adios.

Claremont, California
December 31, 2019
#X-13-402

3,416 words, fifteen minute read

CARTOONS OF THE YEAR 2019 –




RINK RATS POLL – Your favorite holiday?

_____     New Year’s Day
_____     Easter
_____     Fourth of July
_____     Halloween
_____     Thanksgiving
_____     Christmas
_____     Other

QUOTE OF THE MONTH – “Kindness in words creates confidence. Kindness in thinking creates profoundness. Kindness in giving creates love.”

    Lao Tzu

Rink Rats is a blog of weekly observations, predictions and commentary. We welcome your comments and questions. Also participate in our monthly poll. Rink Rats is now viewed in Europe, Canada, South America and the United States.

Posted at Rink Rats The Blog: First Published – May 3, 2010
Our Tenth Year.

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