Bubble

THANKS FOR COMING this Tuesday, where we're marking the halfway point of 2020. One can only imagine what the next six months have in store.

And what a moment it was: Today marks 48 years since the first leap second, put into place because Coordinated Universal Time and the actual mean solar day don’t quite match up. (The leap second, as it turns out, is a pretty frequent occurrence — the last one was in 2016.)

Week 16 of being in the Rink Rats bubble. The last few weeks the bubble has expanded into golf, more trips to stores and visits by friends. But now with COVID-19 making a comeback due to the knuckleheads of the world refusing to wear masks and follow CDC guidelines we are in a pickle again.

The head of the World Health Organization said that despite progress in many countries "globally, the pandemic is actually speeding up" and "the worst is yet to come" as many nations and world leaders remain divided on how to combat the virus. Total worldwide cases now number more than 10.3 million, including over 505,500 deaths. A quarter of the infections and fatalities were in the U.S.

Money is the guiding force, not health. Professional sports, restaurants, schools, concerts, travel, all must realize this is far from over. Federal government and corporate leadership are self-centered and dysfunctional. The COVID gloom rises briefly, we feel elated and the worst is over. Then again, this past week virus returns in greater strength. Let us hope we do not have another sixteen weeks of the bubble.

COVID-19 NOTES - A demographic breakdown of unemployment figures shows that the recession sparked by the coronavirus pandemic is affecting women more than men. In May, The New York Times called the recession a "Shecession." The female unemployment rate had reached double digits for the first time since 1948.

COLLEGE CHRONICLES - A new survey by Inside Higher Ed and Hanover Research finds college presidents "likelier than they were two months ago to expect their institutions to reduce their portfolio of academic programs," 55% now vs. 41% in April. Most significantly from the survey, 72% are either very or somewhat concerned about a "perceived decrease in the value of higher education" because of COVID-19, up from 60% of respondents in April and 48% in March. More survey results reveal that "unbudgeted financial costs related to COVID-19" are the biggest concern (96%) among the group, while "Disproportionate impact on students from disadvantaged backgrounds" is not far behind with 93% of the group worried.

Ithaca College Athletic Director Susan Bassett issues an update on the fall sports situation, explaining that she is serving in a leadership role on the college's Return to Campus Task Force; team physician Getzin and Head Athletic Trainer Matheny have created a comprehensive plan which adheres to the phasing in of athletics as specified by the NCAA; Liberty League ADs have been meeting multiple times per week over the past seven weeks and presidents of the Liberty League have met twice. "I expect to know more soon, but for now, I want to assure you that across the country, Division III schools are in similar circumstances with the planning process. The Oct. 5 date for in-person instruction has not put us behind our Liberty League opponents. As the situation has evolved, the later start provides critical planning time that I am confident will be to our benefit."

The SCIAC (Southern California Intercollegiate Athletic Conference) notes that "while institutional decisions...are still pending, the Presidents' Council agreed that any permitted or approved competition will be conference-only in the fall. ... Additionally, the Presidents' Council determined a minimal number of at least four SCIAC institutions to sponsor a sport for conference play to occur." Final decisions regarding specific schedules and structures for the fall are expected to be made by mid-July.

UMass Boston is not planning on resuming competition in the fall, per interim Chancellor Newman, who sent the following in a memo last week: "We are hopeful that October will bring reassuring news and that we will have the opportunity to open some on-campus programs. We are even more optimistic that the spring semester 2021 will see the campus return to a 'new normal' that will allow for the restoration of our full curriculum, research, residential and student life. For the moment, however, we will adapt to the conditions we face with enthusiasm and creativity even as we know it will permit neither a fall season for our athletics program nor other on-ground student activities.”

COLLEGIATE SPORTS - Four months into the pandemic, 40 D-I sports teams have already been discontinued to save dough. The impact will be felt from youth sports to the Olympics, and experts believe these moves make clear: The college model is broken. So, how do we fix it?

As universities scramble to cover virus-related financial hardships, they’re sacrificing a piece of unique fabric in the American quilt: Olympic sports. In Division I alone, 40 athletic teams have been eliminated in eight weeks. Four schools have cut at least three sports and a fifth, Brown, discontinued a whopping eight athletic programs. According to one site tracking the cuts, more than 80 programs have been eliminated across all levels.

Thousands of advocates have rushed to the sides of coaches and athletes of discontinued sports, challenging school leaders, signing petitions and raising funds. They fear that the cuts are far from over.

“It’s clear that the D-I model of intercollegiate athletics has been broken,” says Mike Moyer, executive director of the National Wrestling Coaches Association, “and COVID-19 is exposing it.”

At mid-major programs, deficits at athletic departments existed before the global pandemic struck. But the shutdown of campuses and economic downturn has dramatically worsened the situation, while giving cover to athletic directors already considering discontinuing sports.

Colleges around the country are bracing for significant losses in the coming fiscal year. Many programs are projecting at least a 20% reduction in revenue from various sources: cuts in state and federal funding; a decrease in institutional support; loss in ticket sales; and a drop in donations. The reductions extend to the university side. Even a giant like Ohio State is estimating a loss of $300 million in revenue, leading some to believe that a few D-I schools will do what several smaller universities have done—shut down completely. “We’re going to lose institutions,” Notre Dame athletic director Jack Swarbrick predicted last month.

The Football Bowl Subdivision level, which is the top 130 athletic programs in the nation, is itself divided into two tiers: the Power 5 (members of the Atlantic Coast, Big 12, Big Ten, Pac-12 and Southeastern conferences, plus Notre Dame) and the Group of Five (members of the American Athletic, Conference USA, Mid-American, Mountain West and Sun Belt conferences, plus independents). The sacrificing of Olympic sports thus far has fallen along that fault line: No Power 5 program has eliminated a sports team, at least not yet. Power 5 athletic departments can lean on cash reserves and the possibility still for significant TV money if the football season is played, but G5 athletic departments are strained by their reliance on school and state funding. On average, a G5 athletic program gets 62% of its revenue through institutional and state support. As enrollment dips and state economies decline, the gravy train stops rolling. Take, for instance, Central Michigan. In 2018, $30 million of CMU's $39 million budget came from those funds. Even before the pandemic struck, enrollment at the school had declined more than 10% from 2018.

Many administrators are following a systematic route to downsizing—salary reductions, staff furloughs and travel cuts—but when more is needed, “Olympic sports are being sacrificed,” said Western Michigan athletic director Kathy Beauregard. “There’s nothing worse you can ever have to do than cut sports.”

So far this spring, tennis has been the most popular choice to cut. Of the 40 teams eliminated, eight are either men’s or women’s tennis. Coincidentally or not, tennis is also responsible for having the largest foreign participation of any sport. About 60% of tennis rosters are not native to the U.S. “There’s somewhere around 7,000 scholarships available (inclusive of D-I, D-II, NAIA, and JUCO), and there are just not enough American juniors to fill the scholarships,” says Tim Russell, the CEO of the Intercollegiate Tennis Association. “There have been some schools where the coach only recruits internationally, and there have been some ADs saying, ‘Can’t have a program of all international students.’” There are other reasons tennis is targeted, Russell says. The most common are costs associated with an indoor and outdoor facility.

There is another sport being targeted. In 1990, more than half of D-I membership sponsored men’s swimming. That number is now at 37%, trailing 19 other sports in sponsorships. In fact, women’s swimming, compared with other female sports, is also on the low end: Just over half of D-I schools have a women’s swim team.

While trimming their own budget, athletic directors are often hurting their university’s bursar office. Sure, eliminating a men’s track team might save $1 million a year in the athletic budget, but what is it costing the academic side? A men’s track team is allowed 12.6 scholarships for an average of 39 athletes. According to a 2016 study from scholarshipstats.com, the average D-I male track athlete received $11,260 in annual athletic aid, the lowest of any men’s sport. D-I football players, who receive full scholarships, got an average aid of $36,070. A track team could be generating over $1 million to the university side. “But the accounting system in athletics doesn’t include that $1 million. “That’s on somebody else’s books.”

There are ways, however, that the math doesn’t work. If a university is at capacity, a school could be costing itself by offering a discount (i.e. scholarship) to an athlete when a regular student would pay full price. But very few schools are at capacity.

This spring marked the ninth consecutive year that general student enrollment has declined nationwide, according to the National Student Clearinghouse Research Center. Now is not the time to intentionally hurt enrollment, yet some athletic departments are doing it. Why? There is a disconnect between the academic and athletic sides.

 

BIRTHDAYS THIS WEEK – Birthday wishes and thoughts this week to Alexandra Clayton …famous publicist, Juli Inkster (60), Huey Lewis (70), Sir Paul McCartney (78), Doc Severinsen (93), Ringo Starr (80).

 

SIGN OF THE TIMES - Please Turn to Chapter 11: First J. Crew filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection. Then, it was Neiman Marcus and Bergdorf Goodman. Who’s next? The troubled companies say that they still plan to reopen stores once it’s safe to do so and that they’ll operate “normally” throughout their debt restructuring. But it is a strange new world for retailers, many of whom were struggling to maintain their brick-and-mortar businesses even before people were ordered to stay home.

Chapter 11 is a form of bankruptcy that involves a reorganization of a debtor's business affairs, debts, and assets. Named after the U.S. bankruptcy code 11, corporations generally file Chapter 11 if they require time to restructure their debts. This version of bankruptcy gives the debtor a fresh start.

MARKET WEEK - Ahead of the last trading day in June and the second quarter, the Dow was on track for an almost 16.8% quarterly advance, which would be the best quarter since Q4 1998. The Dow was pacing for a nearly 1% increase in June, which would be the third straight positive month. However, year to date, the Dow was still down 10% as of Monday's close.

Nearly all of the largest U.S. banks said Monday they performed well enough on the Fed's most-recent stress test to maintain their current quarterly dividends. However, Wells Fargo said the Fed's assessment of its business will warrant a reduction to its quarterly payout.

In a scene reminiscent of Prohibition, craft breweries are sending gallons of perfectly good beer down the drain.

With too much aging beer on their hands, brewers are also putting their drafts into cans, or even bags, to sell. Some are donating the brew to make hand sanitizer as their beers approach their freshness dates. Above, kegs at a Vermont distributor on their way to become sanitizer.

“Suddenly, 60,000 gallons of beer in my cooler are going out of code,” one distributor wrote. The horror.

BASEBALL BACK? - MLB owners voted unanimously last week to impose a 60-game season that will begin around July 24, assuming players sign off on health-and-safety protocols and agree to arrive in home markets by July 1 to begin "spring" training.

Details: If the MLBPA agrees to the protocols and the July 1 arrival date by today's 5pm ET deadline, the 2020 season will look something like this:

Number of games: 60 (over ~66 days)

Spring training: July 1

Opening Day: July 24–26 range

Regular season end: Sept. 27

Playoff field: 10 teams (same as usual)

Salary structure: Full pro rata, which for 60 games means players will earn 37% of their full-season salary.

On-field changes:

Extra innings: MLB and the union previously agreed to adopt the minor league rule for extra innings, beginning every half-inning after the ninth with a runner on second base, per USA Today.

Universal DH: The designated hitter could still arrive in the NL this year to protect pitcher health, per The Athletic (subscription).

Health and safety: We'll soon find out what changes have been made to MLB's original 67-page plan, which included, among other things:

Testing: Multiple COVID-19 tests per week, plus multiple temperature screens per day.

Masks: Managers and coaches would wear masks in the dugout, while players would wear masks in the clubhouse.

Banned actions: No high-fives, fist bumps or hugs. And no spitting, chewing of tobacco or chewing of sunflower seeds.

What's next: With spring training 2.0 set to begin in about a week, players will need to travel to their home cities if they aren't in them already.

The bottom line: In March, owners and players reached a deal that gave owners the right to impose a schedule of their desired length. After nearly three months of futile negotiations, that's ultimately what we got, with the two sides settling on a season not by agreement, but by disagreement. The real question remains: Which Houston Astro gets hit by a pitch first?

DRIVING THE WEEK - The Paycheck Protection Program closes to new applications at the end of Tuesday … Chris Dodd, Barney Frank, Lael Brainard and others speak at Brookings’ Dodd-Frank anniversary event Tuesday … Senate Banking holds a hearing on the digitization of money and payments Tuesday at 10 a.m. … Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and Fed Chair Jerome Powell testify before House Financial Services Tuesday at 12:30 p.m. … The House Small Business Committee holds a hearing on the SBA’s Economic Injury Disaster Loan program Wednesday at 10 a.m. The Supreme Court this week is in the final days of its term before breaking until October. Opinions in monumental finance industry cases are pending and could be issued today or tomorrow. Among them is one that could curtail the powers of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau. Another pair of pending cases will determine the fate of subpoenas seeking President Donald Trump’s financial records from Deutsche Bank and accounting firm Mazars.

ON THIS DATE – June 29, 1958: 62 years ago, Brazil won its first World Cup, beating host Sweden, 5-2, in the final.

Brazil has won a record five World Cups (Italy and Germany both have four), and the 1958 tournament introduced the world to its young star, a 17-year-old Pelé.

Pelé didn't debut until the last game of the group stage, a 2-0 victory over the Soviet Union, which gave them a group-leading five points.

Quarterfinals: Brazil narrowly defeated Wales, 1-0, thanks to Pelé's first career World Cup goal in the 66th minute.

Semifinals: Brazil clung to a 2-1 lead over France in the second half before Pelé took over, scoring a hat trick in less than 25 minutes to lead his team to a 5-2 victory.

Finals: Brazil cruised to another 5-2 victory, with Pelé and fellow striker, Vavá, each scoring two goals.

"When I saw Pelé play, it made me feel I should hang up my boots."

— Just Fontaine, French forward who scored 13 goals in 1958 (WC record)

NHL DRAFT LOTTERY JOKE - In the NHL, the random acts too often are comical and dumb. The draft lottery was an embarrassment, and I know the rest of the sports world doesn’t care if a Detroit team got jobbed. And maybe it’s our fault too for not shrieking loudly about the possible consequences before the disaster unfolded.

But with one of the worst regular-season records in franchise history, the Wings dropped from the No. 1 slot — and prized prospect Alexis Lafreniere — to No. 4. And here’s the ridiculous part: It’s exactly what the NHL planned to happen.

How else do you explain the Wings had only an 18.5% chance of landing the top pick, yet the odds were a combined 24.5% that one of eight teams eliminated from the upcoming 24-team tournament would get the prize? That’s what transpired, turning the NHL’s little lottery show into a joke, when deputy commissioner Bill Daly was forced to reveal the No. 1 pick by holding up a card with a generic NHL logo.

So now the NHL has to explain how a team in the postseason will end up with the No. 1 pick. Congrats to the unnamed place-holder! And don’t parrot the nonsense that the first eight teams eliminated were participating in a qualifying round, not a playoff series. Is it a best-of-five? Does the winner advance toward a shot at the Stanley Cup? Shut up then. The lottery should’ve been the seven non-qualifying teams and that’s it.

SWAMI’S WEEK TOP PICKS – No more sports for a while, The Swami tries his skills elsewhere:

1).  Over and under when we can go back to the workplace – August 1, The Swami likes the overs.

2). The Swami predicts the Detroit Lions season: Chicago (W), at GB (L), at Ariz. (L), N.O. (W), at Jax (W), at Atl. (L), Indy (W), at Minn (L), Wash. (W), at Car. (W), Hou (L), at Chi. (L), GB (L), at Tenn. (L), Tom B. (L), Minn (W). Lions start 6-4, finish 7-9.

3). Rocket Mortgage Classic: 07/01 – 07/05 Golf Channel and CBS: We like Rickie Fowler to win the fifth PGA tournament of the COVID season, having Joe Skovron (La Verne ’04) on the bag will help on the tight Detroit Golf Club course.

4).  Premier League: 07/04. 7:00 am (PDT), NBCSN: Leicester City Foxes (16-7-8) vs. Crystal Palace Glazers (11-9-12). The Foxes should have no problem with the struggling Glazers from South London, 3 – 1.

2020 Season to Date (7-6)

 

To my Canadian friends, Happy Canada Day, have a couple of barley sandwiches.

To my America friends, Happy Independence Day, wear your frigging masks!  Also, enough with the firecrackers in the neighborhood, you all have been firing them off since Memorial Day. Love ya’.

 

Next Blog: Dear Rink Rats and Word of the month

Until Friday July 10, 2020 Adios.

Claremont, California

June 30, 2020

#XI-6-412

3,258 words, eight minute read

 

CARTOON OF THE WEEK – Farley Katz

 

 

RINK RATS POLL – Do you think Juneteenth should be a national holiday?

___ Yes

___ No

___ I'm not sure

 

QUOTE OF THE WEEK – “In America justice should be a verb not a noun.”

—    Bakari Sellers