Finally It Is Over

The Presidential campaign officially began in June, 2011 in New Hampshire when Mitt Romney announced his intention to run for the Presidency. But he began to formulate his campaign two years before in 2009.  After a “couple of Cadillacs,” a summer belly-flop abroad, a dismissive swipe at 47 percent of the population and a convention disaster. Mitt Romney is seemingly tied with President Obama. He has a real chance to become President.

The President due to the economy and the fact that he is not the candidate, or politician, he’s cracked up to be, has provided Mitt Romney an opportunity to win this election. I do not buy the economy stupid reason for the close election. Many Americans understand that he does not bear primary responsibility for the high rate of unemployment and the drops in home prices and incomes. In fact, many Americans think the economy is getting better, slowly but progressing.

Race, “Super PACs”, the horrid Republican primary season, Richard Mourdock, all have played some role in making this election close but the primary reason is President Obama himself. The ways he has disappointed, confused and alienated some of the voters who warmed and even thrilled to him four years ago. During his first term, he at times misjudged and mishandled his Republican opposition. He repeatedly failed to sell his policies clearly and forcefully enough. The days of the great speeches are few and far between. His aloofness has even turned off his own Democratic base.

BUT, we still think he will win a second term. Because President Obama is a seriously intelligent, thoughtful leader more in tune and in touch with Americans’ lives than his sheltered opponent, this has been especially noted with the recent Hurricane Sandy response by his Administration. Though his campaign has been dull, he still has fight and, we believe, knows what is right for all Americans.

All these shortcomings that he would carry with him into a second term, President Obama would be wise to address quickly.

"President Obama: Things You Don't Know About Me: Barack Obama, 51, loves 'Homeland,' works out to Stevie Wonder - and dreads the day Malia goes to prom !": "I'm left-handed. I've never missed a parent-teacher conference since becoming president. Apples are my favorite healthy snack. I always have a bowl of them in the Oval Office.  Malia  and I read all of the Harry Potter books tighter.  My first car was my grandfather's car, a 1970s Ford Granada.  When I work out, I like to listen to Jay-Z, Stevie Wonder and the Rolling Stones on my iPod.  Malia entered high school this year. I'm not looking forward to when she's old enough to go to prom.”

--IF ROMNEY LOSES ... "For Republicans, the only thing harder than losing ... might be explaining it. By any reasonable standard, Obama is a seriously vulnerable incumbent: a president overseeing a limping economy, whose party got thumped in the 2010 midterm elections, and whose signature accomplishment of health care reform is highly controversial. ... Here's a POLITICO preview of the top arguments Republicans would use to explain and excuse it: 1) Mitt Romney was a historically bad candidate: If Romney wins on Tuesday, he'll be president of the United States. If he loses, he'll be the fall guy for the entire Republican Party. Republicans weren't overjoyed about nominating Romney in the first place ... Romney has validated many of those fears ... In a campaign still shadowed by the meltdown of the financial services industry, the GOP picked a candidate as close to Wall Street as any in history. ...

--IF OBAMA LOSES ... "It would be a traumatic experience: the death of the dream of liberal realignment embodied in Obama's insurgent 2008 campaign. ... Unlike Republicans, many of whom have no particular love for their nominee, Democrats admire and sympathize with the president, understanding he came into office at a difficult time. If Obama were to lose, Democrats would suddenly be leaderless for the first time in half a decade and would be forced to confront agonizing questions about the viability of their party's agenda - health care reform, most of all. ... 1) Obama threw it away in Denver ... 2) The Bush economy killed him ... 3) It was the second-term vision thing ... Obama's team expected the country to bounce back from the 2008 meltdown far faster than this. Since the V-shaped recession they anticipated failed to materialize, Obama has often seemed at a loss for new ideas and arguments about improving the economy. ... 4) Citizens United, the super PACs and the Koch Brothers did it ... 5) He lost for a noble cause: national health care ... 6) It all comes back to race."

BIRTHDAYS THIS WEEK – Birthday wishes and thoughts this week to: David Kung … famous Professor, Linda Gordon …famous scholar, Demi Moore (50), Patti Page (85), David Petraeus (60), Johnny Rivers (70), Maria Shriver (57), Bill Walton (60)

COLLEGE FOOTBALL PICK OF THE WEEK – Saturday 11/10, 3:00 PM ET, Fox; #11 ranked Oregon State Beavers (7-1) visit #14 ranked Stanford Cardinal (7-2). In this battle to keep up with The Ducks in the Pac 12 North, The Cardinal will rule the roost – Stanford 35 OSU 28.  Season to date (6-4)

SMALL COLLEGE FOOTBALL PICK OF THE WEEK – Saturday 11/10, 12:00 PM ET, Cartoon Channel; a Central New York traditional rivalry – Ithaca College Bombers (6-3) @ #20 ranked Cortland State Red Dragons (8-1). This Route 13 classic will have the Red Dragons prevail 32 Ithaca 14. Season to date (9-1)

NFL FOOTBALL PICK OF THE WEEK – Sunday 11/11, 5:15 PM ET, NBC; Houston Texans (7-1) at Chicago Bears (7-1). Two possible Super Bowl teams square off in Soldiers Field. Chicago 24 Houston 10.   Season to date (6-3)

THE SWAMI’S TOP PICKS – Stanford 35 Oregon State 28, Cortland State 32 Ithaca 14, The Bears 24 Houston 10, President Obama 52% Governor Romney 48%.  Season to date (26-13)

A BRUNCH ESCAPE – Want a nice escape for brunch? Try Las Brisas in Laguna Beach, California. This legendary Mexican seafood restaurant overlooks the Pacific and the Laguna Beach coastline. In operation since 1938, originally the Victor Hugo Inn, in 1979 it became Las Brisas. Their four course brunch is pricey but outstanding, wonderful seafood and Mexican dishes. After lunch go for a walk along the beach walk, work up a thirst and return to sip on margaritas outside on the patio.

A Rink Rats rating of 1 – 10 with 10 being excellent, we give Las Brisas an 8. Also a great place for people watching, especially the Orange County housewives during the afternoon.

Las Brisas: 361 Cliff Drive, Laguna Beach, CA. 949-497-5434 www.lasbrisaslagundabeach.com/location.html

DRIVING THE WEEK - Obviously there is only one game in town and it takes place tomorrow: Election Day 2012. The likelihood of a drawn-out recount process hinges mainly on Ohio and its 18 electoral votes. If the Buckeye State is within 0.25 percent, a recount is automatic. And candidates can request recounts if the difference is larger. Florida is again a recount possibility, given Romney's narrowing margin. And a handful of other states could also wind up with razor-thin margins, possibly turning Election Day into Election Week or even Election Month. Hopefully, for everyone's sanity, this will not occur. But it certainly could.

Final hectic campaign day today includes Romney visiting Florida and Virginia followed by the final rally of the campaign in Manchester, New Hampshire with Kid Rock at 11 p.m. ... President Obama is in Madison, Wis., Columbus, Ohio, and Des Moines Iowa. All events feature Bruce Springsteen and the Columbus stop also features Jay-Z.

Big econ data this week include ISM non-manufacturing today at 10 a.m. EST, which is expected to dip to 54.5 from 55.1 ... Consumer credit at 3 p.m. EST on Wednesday expected to rise by $10.3 billion ... Reuters/University of Michigan consumer sentiment at 9:55 a.m. EST on Friday expected to rise to 82.9 from 82.6.

VOTE – “Our future may lie beyond our vision, but it is not completely out of our control.”  Robert F. Kennedy

Next week; Dear Rink Rats and fall gardening.

Until Next Monday, Adios.

Claremont, CA

November 5, 2012

#III-28, 133

Tricks or Treats

Some tricks or treats for this Halloween 2012 –

Trick: To walk through a Vons grocery without someone asking, “Are you finding everything?”

Treat: In the ninth week of a finance class seeing the look in a students’ eye when they understand WACC and a Capital Budget.

Trick: The oldest and strongest emotion of mankind is fear, and the oldest and strongest kind of fear is fear of the unknown – welcome to the election of 2012.

Treat: Booking a flight across country with the same price as a year ago.

Trick: Watching grown men and women dress up for Halloween and look like total idiots.

Treat: There is no metaphysics on earth like chocolates.

Trick: Ben Bernanke and his plan to keep inflation down.

Treat: Carving a pumpkin to look like you actually planned.

“The witches fly

Across the sky,

The owls go, “Who? Who? Who?”

The black cats yowl

And green ghosts howl,

“Happy Halloween to you!”

WHY WE VOTE ON TUESDAY? – The story starts all the way back with the Founding Fathers. "The Constitutional Convention just met for a very brief time during the summer of 1787," Senate Historian Don Ritchie says. "By the time they got finished they were exhausted and they hadn't made up their minds on a lot of things."

They were pooped. So they left the question of when federal elections should be held undecided. Without that laid out, states were left to set their own voting dates, which meant several decades of electoral chaos. Ritchie describes it as a "crazy quilt of elections" held at all different times, all over the country.

Finally, in 1845, Congress decided to get things under control. Ritchie says lawmakers reasoned that Monday was out because (this is where the buggies come in) people would have to travel to the polls in their buggies on Sunday, the Sabbath. And in a mostly farming society, Wednesday wouldn't work because that was often market day.

So, Tuesday was the day, and that seemed to work great for 19th century voters. "In the 1840s, elections were a big to-do — there was a lot of hoopla, there were parades," Ritchie says. "Whole families would come on wagons from the farms; people would get dressed up for the occasion."

Though the America of buggies and markets has long since given way to minivans and supermarkets, Tuesday remains the day we vote.

OBAMA/ROMNEY NEAR $2 BILLION TOTAL - "Obama and his allies have broken the billion-dollar barrier. Obama for America, the Democratic National Committee and their joint fundraising group Obama Victory Fund have combined to raise $1,009,000,000 since the beginning of 2011, according to a POLITICO analysis ... A $90 million October put Team Obama over the top. ... Obama, who has railed against the influx of big money from conservative megadonors, quickly attributed the success to small donors, noting that since April 2011, 4.2 million people have donated. ...

"Meanwhile, Mitt Romney isn't that far behind the president. The committees in the Romney operation - Romney for President, Romney Victory and the Republican National Committee - have raised $921 million since the beginning of 2011. Romney wasn't involved in raising RNC funds prior to locking up the GOP presidential nomination in April, but cash raised by the RNC prior to then went to party building expected to help his campaign." 

BIRTHDAYS THIS WEEK – Birthday wishes and thoughts this week to: Richard Dreyfuss (65), Lyle Lovett (55), Jenny McCarthy (40), Gary Player (77).

ARTICLE OF THE WEEK -- N.Y. Times 3-col. lead, "Billions Amassed in the Shadows By the Family of China's Premier" (two strip pages; 4,600 words), by David Barboza in Beijing: "Many relatives of [outgoing Prime Minister] Wen Jiabao [the country's top economic official], including his son, daughter, younger brother and brother-in-law, have become extraordinarily wealthy during his leadership, an investigation by The New York Times shows. A review of corporate and regulatory records indicates that the prime minister's relatives, some of whom have a knack for aggressive deal-making, including his wife, have controlled assets worth at least $2.7 billion. In many cases, the names of the relatives have been hidden behind layers of partnerships and investment vehicles involving friends, work colleagues and business partners. ... [T]he family's ventures sometimes received financial backing from state-owned companies ... As prime minister in an economy that remains heavily state-driven, Mr. Wen ... has broad authority over the major industries where his relatives have made their fortunes. ...

"Their ownership stakes are often veiled by an intricate web of holdings as many as five steps removed ... In the case of Mr. Wen's mother, The Times calculated her stake in Ping An [Insurance] ... by examining public records and government-issued identity cards, and by following the ownership trail to three Chinese investment entities. ... The apparent efforts to conceal the wealth reflect the highly charged politics surrounding the country's ruling elite, many of whom are also enormously wealthy but reluctant to draw attention to their riches. When Bloomberg News reported in June that the extended family of Vice President Xi Jinping, set to become China's next president, had amassed hundreds of millions of dollars in assets, the Chinese government blocked access inside the country to the Bloomberg Web site. ...

"The review of the corporate and regulatory records , which covers 1992 to 2012, found no holdings in Mr. Wen's name. ... For much of his tenure, Wen Jiabao has been at the center of rumors and conjecture about efforts by his relatives to profit from his position. Yet until the review by The Times, there has been no detailed accounting of the family's riches. ... As prime minister, Mr. Wen has staked out a position as a populist and a reformer, someone whom the state-run media has nicknamed 'the People's Premier' and 'Grandpa Wen' because of his frequent outings to meet ordinary people, especially in moments of crisis like natural disasters. ... 'Wen is disgusted with his family's activities, but is either unable or unwilling to curtail them,' a Chinese-born executive working at an American company in Shanghai told American diplomats, according to [a] 2007 cable [disclosed by Wikileaks]." http://nyti.ms/PU58E1

--THE CONTEXT - Financial Times: "Although [Wen] is set to retire after next month's congress, he has been one of the most important proponents of political reform in the party and is likely to seek to retain influence in driving that agenda after he steps down."

SPORTS BLINK - S.F. GIANTS WIN 2ND WORLD SERIES IN 3 YEARS - S.F. Chronicle: "GIANTS SWEEP!" Our Tigers had a great season, just ran into a hot San Francisco club. Lets’ hope Jim Leyland, 67 (manager of Detroit), comes back for another season and the Detroiters give it another solid try next year.

COLLEGE FOOTBALL PICK OF THE WEEK – Saturday 11/3, 8:00 PM ET, CBS: #1 Alabama Crimson Tide (8-0) visit #5 Louisana State University Tigers (7-1). Another HUGE SEC contest, Lou Saban’s Tide will be too much – Alabama 17 LSU 10. Season to date (5-4)

SMALL COLLEGE FOOTBALL PICK OF THE WEEK – Saturday 11/3, 1:00 PM ET, SciFi Channel: Since 1906 this central Michigan classic has been played – (7-1) Adrian Bulldogs visit (6-2) Albion Britons. This battle for first place in the MIAA in Olivet, Michigan at Sprankle-Sprandel Stadium will be epic. Adrian 32 Albion 28.  Season to date (8-1)

NFL FOOTBALL PICK OF THE WEEK – Sunday 11/4, 4:25 PM ET, CBS has the Pittsburgh Steelers (4-3) visiting the New York football Giants (6-2). A must for the Steelers, but remember Eli Manning. Giants 21 Pittsburgh 14.  Season to date (6-2)

THE SWAMI’S TOP PICKS – A horrible week for The Swami last week, time to get back on track: Bama 17 LSU 10, Adrian 32 Albion 28, Giants 21 Pitt 14, Cal Lutheran 35 ULV 24. Season to date (23-12)

JACKASS OF THE MONTH – Without question, Gary Bettman, Commissioner of the National Hockey League. As Don Cherry says: “This puke has to go!” Three work stoppages during his time as Commissioner, the sport is now a distant fourth behind the other major North America professional sports: NFL, NBA, MLB. When is hockey going to figure out this guy is totally worthless.

DRIVING THE WEEK - Sandy's impact will dominate the beginning of the week. President Obama has cancelled campaign events to monitor and the storm and direct response from the White House ... Romney still plans to campaign in Iowa and Ohio today ... Paul Ryan plans to campaign in Florida ... Vice President Joe Biden still has campaign events planned with former President Bill Clinton ... But Sandy could upend any and all existing campaign plans depending on the severity of its impact. No one wants to be seen out stumping for votes while people are suffering through a natural disaster.

Big economic number comes Friday with the October jobs report. It's expected to be in line with recent months and show a net gain of around 125,000 in the employer survey. The big wild card is whether the household survey reverses last month's big drop to 7.8 percent and hits 8.0 percent again, which would be very tough for Obama going into Election Day. If the percentage remains below 8.0 percent, the number probably won't make any difference politically unless it's another big drop, which seems highly unlikely.

QUOTE OF THE MONTH – “Minds are like parachutes. They only function when they are open.”  James Dewar

Next week; Campaign final thoughts and a place for brunch.

Until Next Monday, Adios.

Claremont, CA

October 29, 2012

#III-27, 132

University Taglines

To be or not to be? A college on the East Coast uses "The Place to Be!" as its tagline. And why not? Everyone has to be somewhere. But unless the school wishes to target modern-day Hamlets who haven't decided whether to be or not, it has zero impact.

Another popular tagline is "Start Here, Go Anywhere." It's too popular, in fact. Dozens of schools use that same slogan or a close derivation. When an institution's tagline is so generic as to be interchangeable among schools, it's a sure sign that coherent strategy has "gone elsewhere."

Why do so many colleges use contrived and inept taglines? More importantly, what is the proper function of a tagline, and what do schools risk in deploying meaningless or absurd slogans?

AdGlossary.com defines a tagline as "a slogan or phrase that conveys the most important … [feature] or benefit that the advertiser wishes to convey." However, emphasizing features in taglines is the hallmark of an amateur. Experts stress benefits instead.

An example of a feature-oriented tagline: "A Tradition of Leadership." A benefit-oriented tagline: "Where You're a Name, Not a Number." Features are inward-looking and self-oriented. Benefits are outward-looking and focused on the target audience's interests.

Sweet Briar College (Va.), a school for women, uses the tagline, "Think Is for Girls." They even render the word "Think" in pink to emphasize the pun. As taglines, puns are usually problematic. But Sweet Briar's slogan is brilliant. Sweet Briar's tagline is obviously a twist on the old clichè that "pink is for girls." This combination of the familiar with the unexpected makes it memorable. Unmemorable taglines are a waste of potential. The best taglines capture the imagination and can go viral ("Got milk?").

Marketing is strategic. Its purpose is to create a preference in the mind of the prospect and to motivate action based on that preference. Both coherent strategy and artful tactics are necessary. For tagline purposes, this means that a phrase or slogan should not be chosen because it "sounds good" to the administration. It should be selected based on its potential to engage and motivate the target audience. And it should be deployed how and where it will do the most good.

Some sample University taglines:

Knowledge is good – Faber College

Seize the moment, feel the momentum – SUNY Cortland

Only one Alma – Alma College

Invent the future – Virginia Tech

Women of influence – Russell Sage College

Do something great – THE Ohio State University

Do it with your head – University of Richmond

Get a life – University of Houston (City Campus)

The opportunity place – Bob Jones University

Uncommon journeys – Lewis & Clark College

Greed is good – University of Phoenix

Now if Colleges & Universities can only promise what they preach.

THE BEGINNING: 'Newsweek plans to end its print publication after 80 years and will shift to an all-digital format starting in early 2013. Job cuts are expected. Newsweek's last U.S. print edition will be its Dec. 31 issue. ... Barry Diller, the head of the company that owns Newsweek, announced in July that the publication was examining its future as a weekly print magazine. Diller said then that the brand was good around the world, but that producing a weekly news magazine in print form wasn't easy. The announcement of the change was made by Tina Brown, editor-in-chief and founder of The Newsweek Daily Beast Co., on The Daily Beast website. ... Brown said that the online publication will be called Newsweek Global and will be a single, worldwide edition that requires a paid subscription. It will be available for tablets and online reading, with certain content available on The Daily Beast website.'

THE MILLENNIAL GENERATION : "There are 80 million Americans in the Millennial generation ... just as many Millennials as Boomers and twice as many of these 16-32 year-olds as there are Gen Xers. And although they were born after Reagan took office, 90% of Millennials will be old enough to vote on Election Day and over 60% say that they are extremely or somewhat likely to vote. That's almost 50 million votes up for grabs. Leading up to the 2012 election. Millennials ... are very aware of what's going on in politics. And they are involved and influential. ... When it comes to political comedies, they don't watch to get informed; they watch because they are informed. ... What a candidate thinks is funny tells Millennials who they really are. ... Politicians must leverage humor to connect with Millennials: this generation needs humor, and they're saying it will shape their votes."

--Comedy Central's "5 Rules to Win the Millennial Vote through Humor ": "Avoid political hack. Save the joke writers for AARP night. You can't force funny with young voters. Millennials want a candidate with a genuine sense of humor. ... Don't make light of serious issues, as fun as that is. As much as Millennials love a good laugh, they are fiercely compassionate. They want candidates with solutions, not wisecracks. ... It's ok for a candidate to make fun of himself. Humor humanizes, and a well-timed joke at one's own expense shows personality and self-awareness. Just don't make fun of your opponent, that's the job of professional comedians. ... Stay up late. Do an interview with a respected late night comedian. They're a great way to connect with the electorate. Not only will you have a professional host to keep things from stalling, but you'll be allowed to lighten up."

BIGGEST DONORS -- DEMOCRATS: "No. 1: Jeffrey Katzenberg, 61, Hollywood film producer and chief executive of DreamWorks Animation. Total: $2.566 million ... No. 2: Irwin Jacobs, 78, the founder and former chairman of Qualcomm. Total: $2.122 million ... No. 3 (tie): Fred Eychaner, founder of Chicago-based alternative-newspaper publisher Newsweb Corp. Total: $2.066 million ... No. 3 (tie): Jon Stryker, 54, a Michigan philanthropist.Total: $2.066 million ... No. 5: Steve Mostyn, 41, a Houston-based personal injury attorney. Total: $2.003 million."

BIGGEST DONORS - REPUBLICANS : "No. 1: Sheldon Adelson, 79, owner of the Las Vegas Sands casino empire. Total: $34.2 million ... No. 2: Harold Simmons, 81, owner of Contran Corp., a Dallas-based conglomerate worth an estimated $9 billion that specializes in metals and chemical production and waste management.Total: $16 million ... No. 3: Bob J. Perry, 80, head of a Houston real estate empire worth an estimated $650 million. Total: $15.3 million ... No. 4: Robert Rowling, 58, head of Dallas-based TRT Holdings. Total: $4.1 million ... No. 5: William Koch, 72, an industrialist whose South Florida-based energy and mining conglomerate is worth an estimated $4 billion. Total: $3 million."

BIRTHDAYS THIS WEEK – Birthday wishes and thoughts this week to: Hillary Rodman Clinton (65), Doug Flutie (50), Annette Funicello (70), Jeff Goldblum (60), Kevin Kline (65), Bobby Knight (72), Brad Paisley (40), Juli Roberts …famous campus director, Julia Roberts (45).

TOP FIVE POLITICAL CAMPAIGN MOVIES – Rink Rats has gone into their movie vaults to select their top five political campaign movies. Try renting these in the next few weeks:

1).  The Candidate (1972)

2).  The War Room (1993)

3).  The Last Hurrah (1956)

4).  Primary Colors ((1998)

5).  Bulworth (1998)

COLLEGE FOOTBALL PICK OF THE WEEK – Saturday 10/27, 3:30 PM ET, CBS: #10 Georgia Bulldogs (6-1) visit Jacksonville to take on #2 Florida Gators (7-0).  Another weekend, another SEC battle; Florida will be tested but will prevail, too much offense. Florida 38 Georgia 24. Season to date (5-3)

SMALL COLLEGE FOOTBALL PICK OF THE WEEK – Saturday 10/27, 4:30 PM ET, Nickoledon: #22 Willamette Bearcats (5-1) visit NWC foe #3 Linfield Wildcats (6-0). A HUGE pacific northwest game, this is a special year for Linfield and it will continue. Linfield 24 Willamette 21. Season to date (7-1)

NFL FOOTBALL PICK OF THE WEEK – Sunday 10/28, 4:25 PM ET, Fox: The New York football Giants (5-2) at Dallas Cowboys (3-3). The Giants can put some distant between them and their NFC East rivals with a win, but we pick an upset: Dallas 28 New York Giants 24. Season to date (6-1)

THE SWAMI’S TOP PICKS – Florida 38 Georgia 24, Linfield 24 Willamette 21, Dallas 28 Giants 24, ULV over budget for Homecoming weekend, over $35,000. Season to date (21-10)

REMEMBERING GEORGE McGOVERN - The family's announcement: "At approximately 5:15 am Sunday morning, our wonderful father, George McGovern passed away peacefully at the Dougherty Hospice House in Sioux Falls, SD, surrounded by our family and life-long friends. We are blessed to know that our father lived a long, successful and productive life advocating for the hungry, being a progressive voice for millions and fighting for peace. He continued giving speeches, writing and advising all the way up to and past his 90th birthday, which he celebrated this summer. George McGovern died at the age of 90. Services will be held in Sioux Falls. Details will be announced shortly. In lieu of flowers, our family is requesting that donations be made to support Feeding South Dakota at www.feedingsouthdakota.org/donate.

"Though routed by Richard Nixon, McGovern's 1972 campaign influenced the Democratic Party in the decades that followed and greatly changed the party's rules over how future presidential candidates and party leaders were chosen. He devoted much of his last three decades to anti-hunger issues, teaming with former senator Bob Dole, a Republican and one-time adversary in the Senate, to establish school-lunch programs in some of the world's poorest nations.

'In the storied history of American politics, I believe no other presidential candidate ever had such an enduring impact in defeat,' former president Bill Clinton said while was speaking in 2006 at the opening of the McGovern Center for Leadership and Public Service at Dakota Wesleyan University in Mitchell."

SALUTING FORMER REP. SAM GIBBONS, a Democrat and former Ways and Means chair who served in the House from 1963 to 1997- "The memorial service for Sam Gibbons was held in a church where, in his last days, the statesman sat in a wheelchair by the organ, singing with all the gusto he could find. It was his church, Palma Ceia Presbyterian, named for the neighborhood that Gibbons helped Tampa incorporate into its boundaries. ... Gibbons was a World War II hero who parachuted behind enemy lines on D-day, a state legislator who helped Tampa grow, a congressman who started the nation's preschool Head Start program, and a grandfather whose seven grandchildren called him 'Papa.' ... He died on Oct. 10 at age 92. ...

"Gibbons' conversations with NBC's Tom Brokaw [helped] inspire ... the news anchor to write 'The Greatest Generation.'"

NHL AT THE BRINK - And so it comes down to this: a week, maybe less, to not just save a season but a game's reputation; to save the reputation of its players and owners and to disprove the widely held notion -- one that grows by the day -- that hockey will just never get it right. Less than a week to prove that hockey isn't the crazy, drooling uncle of sport that deserves to be locked in the attic.

Next week; Trick or Treat and The Halloween party and Jack Ass of the Month.

Until Next Monday, Adios.

Claremont, CA

October 22, 2012

#III-26, 131

Finance 101

U.S. growth. The U.S. economic recovery is likely to persist at a reduced 2.0%−3.0% trend real GDP growth rate, given the continuing headwinds involving housing, consumer balance-sheet repair, and the transition toward fiscal austerity in Europe and, eventually, the United States. Future U.S. economic growth should prove more uneven than expected, given the downside risks of a full-blown European sovereign debt/banking crisis, a housing-related Chinese slowdown, and the (unresolved) process for addressing U.S. fiscal imbalances. These and other (unanticipated) risks are likely to lead to periodic bouts of risk aversion and economic slowdowns in 2013, 2014 and beyond, followed by economic rebounds.

U.S. inflation. Trend inflationary pressures are currently modest, with the risk of returning to the high inflationary regime of the 1970s and early 1980s over the next several years estimated to be less than 10%. Over the next ten years, we project a median inflation rate averaging about 2.0%–2.5% per year for the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI).

Monetary policy. The target federal funds rate is likely to remain near 0% through at least mid-2013, with a bias toward the Federal Reserve’s remaining on hold into 2014. The return on cash will likely average less than 2.0% over the next ten years through 2021, with real (inflation-adjusted) short-term interest rates remaining negative for some time.

U.S. Treasury yields. Consistent with the current steepness of the Treasury yield curve, our ten-year projections generally exhibit a gradual rising-rate bias, although dispersion around this median path remains considerable. Based in part on our inflation outlook, the yield on the 10-year Treasury bond is expected to eventually move from its current range of 1.5%−2.5% toward the 3.5%−4.5% range over the next decade, a central tendency near its historical long-run average.

Bond market returns. The expected long-run median return of the broad taxable U.S. fixed income market is near current benchmark yields and thus most closely resembles the historical bond returns of the 1950s and 1960s. Despite the modest secular bias toward rising U.S. interest rates, we caution investors against maintaining a secular short-duration bias in their fixed income portfolios. In our simulations, shorter-maturity Treasury yields tend to rise more than the yields on longer-maturity Treasury bonds. This so-called bear-flattening bias produces expected median returns that are similar for all Treasury bond portfolios, regardless of their maturity or duration. It is important to note that the diversification benefits of fixed income in a balanced portfolio remain under most scenarios; the bottom decile of expected U.S. bond returns through 2021 is positive, and is higher than the bottom-decile expected returns on equities.

Stock market returns. Centered in the 6%−9% return range, the long-term median nominal return for global equity markets is modestly below the historical averages. But after adjusting for potential future inflation, we estimate an approximately 50% likelihood that global equities over the next decade will realize their post-1926 real return average. This generally formative outlook for the global equity risk premium may surprise some readers, given the economic outlook and low-rate environment. However, our long-held view is that market valuations generally correlate with future stock returns, and that consensus economic growth expectations and initial dividend yields do not. As a result, the expected long-run return on emerging-market equities is statistically identical to that on developed-market equities, and in fact tends to be lower when adjusted for emerging markets’ higher expected volatility. The expected distribution of correlations among major equity markets continues to underscore the strategic benefits of international diversification.

FISCAL CLIFF. If the federal government continues to not address deficit issues, the economy will slow even further into a recession.

What does all this mean? Stay liquid, review your portfolios every six months, equity financing of home loans is still positive but the housing market will continue to be down, keep debt low (below 20% of your assets). The job market will continue to be poor until 2015/2016. Whoever is President, lots’ of luck.

VP DEBATE WRAP: LOTS OF HEAT; NO GAME CHANGE - It was a spirited brawl in Kentucky last night, but it's hard to see how it changes the shape of the campaign very much if at all. Democrats were thrilled with Vice President Joe Biden's fierce defense of the administration's economic record - especially on the auto bailout - and plans for Social Security and Medicare. GOP VP nominee Paul Ryan scored some points hitting the administration's Libya terrorist attack response. But he mostly played small ball and avoided any big mistakes.

Biden got slammed on the right (not unfairly) for his constant laughing and smiling during Ryan's comments. Ryan got derided on the left (not unfairly) for his smirk and limited ability to refute some of Biden's attacks, such as on requesting stimulus funds for a constituent while also slamming the stimulus. Republicans declared Ryan the clear winner. Democrats said it was Biden in a walk. A multitude of largely worthless instant polls produced a muddle of conflicting results that can be instantly dismissed as telling us nothing.

One possible impact: Biden's interruptions and persistent, derisive laughter turning off any undecideds who happened to tune in.

PANETTA WARNS OF 'CYBER-PEARL HARBOR' -  "Defense Secretary Leon E. Panetta warned Thursday that the United States was facing the possibility of a 'cyber-Pearl Harbor' and was increasingly vulnerable to foreign computer hackers who could dismantle the nation's power grid, transportation system, financial networks and government. In a speech at the Intrepid Sea, Air and Space Museum in New York, Mr. Panetta ... said he was reacting to increasing aggressiveness and technological advances by the nation's adversaries, which officials identified as China, Russia, Iran and militant groups.

"'An aggressor nation or extremist group could use these kinds of cyber tools to gain control of critical switches,' Mr. Panetta said. 'They could derail passenger trains, or even more dangerous, derail passenger trains loaded with lethal chemicals. They could contaminate the water supply in major cities or shut down the power grid across large parts of the country.' Defense officials insisted that Mr. Panetta's words were not hyperbole, and that he was responding to a recent wave of cyberattacks on large American financial institutions."

BIRTHDAYS THIS WEEK – Birthday wishes and thoughts this week to: Paul Abbondante …famous Finance Professor, Sue Bird (32), Amy Carter (45), Eminem (40), Lee Iacocca (88), Judy Sheindlin (70), Lindsey Vonn (28), Bob Weir (65).

WORDS OF THE MONTH –

Cimmerian \si-MEER-ee-uhn\, adjective:

1. Very dark; gloomy; deep.
2. Classical Mythology. Of, pertaining to, or suggestive of a western people believed to dwell in perpetual darkness.

“I was ripe for death, and along a road full of dangers, weakness led me to the boundaries of the world and the Cimmerian land of darkness and whirlwinds.”
-- Arthur Rimbaud, A Season in Hell

pensar, verb
to think about, to think over

“Pensándolo bien, he decidido no dimitir.”
On reflection, I’ve decided not to resign.

COLLEGE FOOTBALL PICK OF THE WEEK – Saturday 10/20, 7:00 PM ET, ABC: #4 Kansas State Wildcats (6-0) at #13 West Virginia Mountaineers (5-1). This Big 12 matchup will show that The Wildcats belong in the BCS and the Mountaineers do not. Kansas State 32 West Virginia 24.  Season to date (4-3).

NCAA BCS TOP FIVE: (1). Alabama, (2). Florida, (3). Oregon, (4). Kansas State, (5). Notre Dame.

SMALL COLLEGE FOOTBALL PICK OF THE WEEK – Saturday 10/20, 2:00 PM ET, The Food Network: The Cheese Bowl game – Concordia (Wis.) Falcons (3-3) visit Lakeland Muskies (2-4). The records go out the door when it is the Cheese Bowl. The Falcons will carve out a victory; Concordia 40 Lakeland 24.     Season to date (6-1).

D-III TOP FIVE: (1). Mount Union, (2). Mary Hardin Baylor, (3). Linfield, (4). St. Thomas, (5). UW-Whitewater

NFL FOOTBALL PICK OF THE WEEK – Sunday 10/21, 4:24 PM ET, CBS: New York Jets (3-3) at New England Patriots (3-3). A battle for first place in the AFC East, Pats 35 Jets 10. Season to Date (5-1).

NFL POWER RANKINGS: (1). Houston, (2). Atlanta, (3). San Francisco, (4). Baltimore, (5). New England

THE SWAMI’S TOP PICKS – KSU 32 WVU 24, Concordia 40 Lakeland 24, Patriots 35 Jets 10, La Verne 38 Pomona-Pitzer 21.    Season to Date (17-10).

DRIVING THE WEEK - The second presidential debate, a town hall format Tuesday night at Hofstra University in Hempstead, N.Y., is the centerpiece of the week and a critical opportunity for President Obama to reverse some of the damage from his weak performance in the first meeting. Obama has been holed up in Williamsburg, Va., in debate prep and aides promise a much sharper, more engaged president eager to draw sharp contrasts with Mitt Romney and lay out a more specific agenda for a second term. The debate will cover both foreign and domestic policy and Romney is likely to keep up the sharp attack on the administration's handling of the Benghazi attack. The format, featuring audience questions, could make it hard to get really aggressive.

GOP vice presidential nominee Paul Ryan campaigns in Waukesha, Wis., and Cincinnati, Ohio, today ... Bruce Springsteen is on the road for Obama this week with stops Thursday in Parma, Ohio, with former President Bill Clinton and later in the day with Vice President Joe Biden in Ames, Iowa ... After the debate, Obama campaigns Wednesday in Mount Vernon, Iowa, and Athens, Ohio, where he will "lay out the real and achievable solutions he has" for a second term ...

Retail sales at 8:30 a.m. EDT today expected to rise 0.8 percent overall and 0.6 percent ex-autos ... Consumer prices on Tuesday at 8:30 a.m. EDT expected to rise 0.5 percent headline and 0.2 percent core ... Initial jobless claims at 8:30 a.m. EDT on Thursday expected to reverse last week's fluky drop to 339K and jump back up to 365K ... Philly Fed on Thursday excepted to rise to 0.2 from September's -1.9 ... Existing home sales at 10 a.m. EDT on Friday expected to dip to 4.75 million from 4.87 million ... Bank earnings season continues with Citigroup today, Goldman Sachs on Tuesday, Bank of America on Wednesday and Blackstone and Morgan Stanley on Thursday.

Next week; Trick or Treat?

Until Next Monday, Adios.

Claremont, CA

October 15, 2012

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