Hacked

The numbers are shocking: Personal information from 76 million households may have been compromised as part of the cyber-attack on JPMorgan Chase. That is the equivalent of two out of every three households in the United States, though a small portion of those affected may be overseas. The intrusion compromised the names, addresses, phone numbers and emails of those households, and can basically affect anyone — customers past and present — who logged onto any of Chase and JPMorgan’s websites or apps. That might include those who get access to their checking and other bank accounts online or someone who checks their credit card points over the web. Seven million small businesses also were affected.

While nobody knows what the hackers are planning to do with the data from JPMorgan — if anything at all — privacy experts say the biggest risk is that the thieves will try to extract more sensitive information from affected consumers.  “It would give the thief a call log of who to victimize, but that in and of itself is not enough to steal someone’s identity,” said Matt Davis, a senior victims adviser at the Identity Theft Resource Center. “That is the silver lining there.” There is no evidence that account numbers, passwords, user IDs, dates of birth or Social Security numbers were compromised, according to the bank, nor did the bank suggest that customers change their passwords.

 “I think it is always good practice to regularly watch your accounts,” said Trish Wexler, a JPMorgan spokeswoman. “That is just good financial hygiene.”

It is possible that the thieves could sell the JPMorgan data to others, who could then combine it with publicly available information, found through census data or social media, said Pam Dixon, executive director at the World Privacy Forum, a public interest research group. They could then create sophisticated — and very convincing — emails that targeted individual consumers, a practice known as spear phishing. The goal is to trick consumers into providing Social Security numbers or user names and passwords.

“I would be very conscious of the email you get in the next year, which could be related to this hack,” Ms. Dixon said. “They are really hard to detect. It’s not like, ‘Send me money in the Philippines.’ ”

Legitimate financial services companies, retailers, cellphone companies, government agencies like the Internal Revenue Service and other providers will not (or at least should not) request personal information in an email. But if a customer detects something suspicious about an email, they should contact the company that supposedly sent it. They should not, however, use the phone number in the email — that is likely only to put them in touch with the criminals. The Federal Bureau of Investigation also advises consumers to enter website addresses manually (or, at least, to do a web search for them). In other words, do not follow links inside the email. If a customer’s bank account ultimately is compromised, they will not be held liable for any unauthorized transactions, but they should contact JPMorgan immediately.

Those who want to add a layer of security to their financial life should consider a “security freeze,” one of the strongest tools against theft because it prevents someone from trying to open a new account in a consumer’s name. When you freeze your reports, the big three credit bureaus will not release your credit reports to any company that does not already have a relationship with you. Financial providers and other companies typically request such reports before issuing a new account.

Consumers need to approach each of the three credit bureaus — Equifax, Experian and TransUnion — and may need to pay a small fee, depending on where they live. The process can be a hassle because the freeze has to be “thawed,” or lifted, to apply for a new credit card, for instance, or for a mortgage. (And consumers may need to keep PINs and other information handy to do that). But the extra effort may be easier than trying to undo the mess created by a thief.

Then there is the boilerplate advice that all consumers should heed: Regularly monitor all of your accounts; read every transaction on your credit statement every month; and check each of your three credit reports regularly, which you are allowed to do free at least once a year through AnnualCreditReport.com.

Consumers may be desensitized by now, given the frequency and breadth of cyber-attacks on retailers like Home Depot, Target, Michaels, Neiman Marcus and others. Many may even assume that some hacker, somewhere, already has at least some of their personal information. “Security is out of your control,” said Bruce Schneier, a computer security expert. “The only thing you can do is agitate for laws about regulating third-party use of your data and how they store it, use it and collect it.”

COLLEGE CHRONICLES – DAVID SKORTON, former Cornell president and now 13th Secretary of the Smithsonian Institution, was welcomed to town with an elegant Metropolitan Club reception hosted Monday evening by Dr. Elena and Robert Allbritton, Ann and Knight Kiplinger, Austin Kiplinger, and Cathy Merrill and Paul Williams.

--Robert is landlord for Skorton and his wife, Robin Davisson, and joked during the remarks that this gives new meaning to keeping "your friends close, but your enemies closer." Skorton had one of the funnier lines we've ever heard at a gathering like this, saying he had given cards to many in the room -- and if he hadn't, it probably meant that Cathy, a Cornell alumnus and longtime friend, had "pulled me aside and said 'Don't waste a card' on you." Guess you had to be there.

BUDGET DEFICIT FALLS - Per Treasury: "The deficit in FY 2015 fell to $439 billion, $44 billion less than the FY 2014 deficit and $144 billion less than forecast in President Obama's FY 2016 Budget. As a percentage of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), the deficit fell to 2.5 percent, the lowest since 2007 and less than the average of the last 40 years. In dollar terms, the FY 2015 deficit was the lowest since 2007 as well."

CANADA GOES LEFT! - Justin Trudeau's Liberal party was heading for a stunning victory in Monday's Canadian general election, ousting Stephen Harper and his Conservatives from their near-decade reign over a country now hit by the oil price crash and an economic recession. ... Less than an hour after polls closed across the country, the Liberal party was projected to win 189 seats with 40 per cent of the popular vote, according to Elections Canada, the government election agency. ...

The wider than expected margin appeared to be at the expense of the leftwing New Democratic party, which was on track to win only 35 seats, while the Conservatives were heading for 103. The results were far more favorable for the Liberals than had been predicted by pre-election polls, which projected a slim minority win for Mr Trudeau's party. They also marked a sharp turnaround from the 2011 election when the Conservatives crushed the Liberals, winning 166 seats to the Liberals' 34.

Canada’s Conservative Party has been ousted after almost a decade in power, as voter discontent and a souring economy helped sweep Liberal Party leader Justin Trudeau into the top office. After turning his party into a national political force, Prime Minister Stephen Harper failed to make a lasting impact with middle-of-the-road voters in the country’s central and eastern regions. Amid the faltering economy, his opponent’s newcomer status may have played into a deep-seated desire for change. Here are five things we can expect from the government of Canada’s newly elected premier—the 43-year-old son of the country’s long-serving Prime Minister Pierre Trudeau.

BIRTHDAYS THIS WEEK – Birthday wishes and thoughts this week to: Mike Barnicle (62), Boss, Mass. Jackson Browne (67), Austin, TX. Erin Gratz ….famous keeper of the faith, Jennifer Holiday (55) Las Vegas, NV. Angela Lansbury (90), New York, NY. John Lithgow (70) Pinehurst, NC. Joe Pepitone (75) Tampa, FL. Tom Petty (65) Woodland Hills, CA.

THE SWAMI’S NHL Preseason Picks –

The Swami makes his preseason selections on what NHL hockey teams will rule in 2015-16:

Eastern Conference:             Atlantic – Montreal Canadians        Metropolitan – New York Islanders

Other Playoff teams: NY Rangers, Washington Capitals, Tampa Bay Lightning, Detroit Red Wings, Ottawa Senators, Pittsburgh Penguins

Western Conference:  Central – St. Louis Blues    Pacific – Los Angeles Kings

Other Playoff teams: Chicago Blackhawks, Winnipeg Jets, Minnesota Wild, Anaheim Ducks, Dallas Stars, Vancouver Canucks

Eastern Finals: Montreal Canadians over the New York Islanders

Western Finals: Anaheim Ducks over the Dallas Stars

Stanley Cup Finals: Montreal Canadians over Anaheim Ducks

NFL PICK OF THE WEEK – Sunday 10/25, 1:00 PM ET CBS: Houston Texans (2-4) at Miami Dolphins (2-3), the loser can expect a long season: Texans 24 Dolphins 21 Season to date (3-3)

COLLEGE FOOTBALL PICK OF THE WEEK – Saturday 10/24, 4:00 PM ET ESPN: #15 Texas A&M Aggies (5-1) at #24 University of Mississippi Rebels (4-2): SEC at its finest, Ole Miss 35 Aggies 28. Season to date (4-3)

SMALL COLLEGE FOOTBALL PICK OF THE WEEK – Saturday 10/24, 7:00 PM ET HGTV: University of La Verne Leopards (4-1) at University of Redlands Bulldogs (2-3): First place on the line in the SCIAC, La Verne in an upset 24 – 21. Season to date (6-1)

THE SWAMI’S WEEK TOP PICKS –

(NCAA, Oct. 24) #8 Wheaton Illinois Thunder (6-0) vs. #16 North Central Illinois Cardinals (4-2), The Thunder prevail 42 – 35.

Season to date (77-50)

MARKET WEEK –The S&P 500 is coming off its best weekly gain of the year, and the Dow has risen for six straight sessions as investors begin a new week. The fate of the market rally could well depend on the increasing pace of corporate earnings in the coming weeks, as well as how economic data fuels speculation about what may happen at the late October meeting of Federal Reserve policymakers.

Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer said Sunday Fed policymakers are still likely to raise interest rates this year, but that could change if the global economy pushes the United States off course.

However, Chinese Finance Minister Lou Jiwei told China Business News now is not the time for the Fed to hike rates. Lou said global economic weakness is due to lack of demand in developed markets.

Next week: Fall in the garden and Dear Rink Rats.

Until Next Monday, Adios.

Claremont, CA

October 22, 2015

#VI-16-278

CARTOON OF THE WEEK – Donald Trump

Octoberfest

I haven’t been blogging much lately because this writer has been traveling, teaching, learning, and professionally wasting time. Seriously (I think), we are back and hopefully will continue our Monday blog schedule. I so enjoy writing this blog, but sometimes keeping up with its demands can be a bit much.

Here are some observations with the beginning of fall coming to Southern California. Fall in Southern California, yes; 90 to 100 degree temperatures with Santa Ana winds, even more traffic with school back, and too much attention given to USC and UCLA football. This is fall in Southern California.

OH, OH CANADA - On September 1, 2015, Statistics Canada reported that the economy has contracted by 0.5% in Q2 2015, after falling 0.8% in previous quarter. This implies that the Canadian economy is in recession for the first time since the financial crisis, as they reported two consecutive quarters of negative growth.

Plunging oil prices constituted the primary factor weighing down the Canadian economy in the last two quarters, leading to shrinkage in business investments and creating sustainability issues for existing businesses. The mining, quarrying and oil and gas exploration sector took the biggest hit. It was down by 4.5% amid shutdowns and production barriers in Q2 2015.

Other factors that led to contraction of the Canadian economy were subdued business investments, a decline in new home construction (-4.1%), passive exports data and falling inventory levels. The most affected regions were energy exporting areas like Alberta. The results are expected to hurt current Prime Minister Stephen Harper's chances to win in the upcoming elections on October 19. The opposition party has pointed out that Harper’s policy has failed, arguing this is a lost decade for Canada.

THE POPE’S VISIT - With Pope Francis come and gone to the U.S. What is the state of Catholic education? In the last 10 years alone, over 1,600 Catholic schools closed or consolidated and enrollment plunged by 20 percent, according to the National Catholic Educational Association's 2014-15 report. One possible factor in addition to larger demographic trends - competition from charter schools, which offer a free alternative in many urban neighborhoods: There are bright spots, however, such as an Omaha diocese that just saw its first enrollment spike in 17 years.

- An unsettled issue for these schools is the decision by many to adopt the Common Core. Their adoption was in part an effort to stay relevant and keep students enrolled. But the standards have divided parents and teachers in the Catholic school community. There is even a Facebook page called Catholic School Parents Against the Common Core. Still, don't expect the pontiff to take a break from talking about immigration or climate change to wade into the Common Core debate.

- But Catholic schools are wading into some sticky issues on their own. The New York Times recently wrote about the emergence of Gay-Straight Alliances at Catholic high schools and colleges. "Pope Francis's language is of inclusivity," said Candida Moss, a professor of theology at the University of Notre Dame. "Previously, the argument against a Gay-Straight Alliance at a Catholic high school or college would have been that we don't want to endorse non-Catholic lifestyles. But with this pope, a G.S.A. can be seen not as an endorsement of a lifestyle but as a support group, as a way of having people be in community.

Since 1977, weekly Mass attendance has dropped from 41 percent to 24 percent of adult Catholics. Bishops have taken to running campaigns, such as the Archdiocese of Washington's 'The Light Is On For You' ... In 1965, nearly 59,000 priests served in the church ... now below 38,000 ... 40 percent of U.S. priests over age 65 ... In 2013, nearly one-third of Catholic parishes operated at a loss.

POWER PLAYERS - ACROSS THE ABYSS: California is on the verge of unprecedented power in Congress, but party leaders McCarthy and Pelosi barely speak: When "McCarthy becomes speaker of the House, ... [it'll be] first time in history that both the speaker and minority leader ... have hailed from the same state. Several colleagues said they can't recall ever seeing the two together.

COLLEGE CHRONICLES - Fishing for Students  - U.S. colleges, especially those without brand names abroad, are paying agents to recruit foreign students, a practice that is illegal when recruiting most domestic applicants. Schools that use agents say the intermediaries are the most practical way to woo overseas students without the cost of sending staff around the world. Skeptics point to conflicts of interest and say agents open the door to falsified applications. “Why are American universities doing this? The answer is very simple: money,” said one critic. Experts estimate that at least a quarter of U.S. campuses pay such agents. Students also hire them to help them get a place at U.S. colleges, a popular strategy in China.

COLLEGE DEBT RELIEF MAY BACKFIRE - Federal programs designed to ease the burden of college loans are causing snarls in the bond market and raising concerns that banks may soon ratchet back lending. The programs, which let struggling borrowers scale back their repayments, have made student loans more affordable at a time when millions of Americans are falling behind on their student debts. But that slowing stream of money is having a knock-on effect in the market for bonds backed by that debt.

Investors who own the bonds are beginning to worry that they may not get repaid on time, and they are balking at buying new bonds being offered by financial institutions. Without that revenue from selling off the student loans into bonds, banks have less capital to turn into new loans. Credit rating firms Moody's Investors ServiceInc. and Fitch Ratings Inc. have collectively placed more than $36 billion worth of bonds backed by student loans on watch for a possible downgrade.

HARVARD SEEKS SHORT-SELLERS - Harvard is looking for investment managers with expertise as short-sellers, as the world's biggest university endowment becomes more cautious about the outlook for financial markets. In its latest annual report, which showed investment returns fell to 5.8 per cent in the year ended June 30, the $38bn endowment said its managers had started to increase cash holdings and feared that some markets had become 'frothy'. “Frothy” not a word usually associated with Harvard. The New York Times: http://nyti.ms/1KtMLyA

SYLLABUS - PROMOTING SUCCESS FOR ALL ASIAN STUDENTS: At 14 percent of the state population, Asian Americans and Native Hawaiian and Pacific Islanders comprise the fastest-growing racial and ethnic group in California. But while they overwhelmingly attend public institutions when they go to college, their success varies dramatically by subpopulation, a new report finds. For example, 70 percent of Indian adults have a bachelor's degree or higher, compared to just one in 10 Laotian adults. The Campaign for College Opportunity and Asian Americans Advancing Justice say the problems of AANHPI students are being "overlooked and exacerbated by looking at the group as a monolithic whole." The authors call for considering the differences among subpopulation when making policies designed to close access and completion gaps. They also want continued state investment to make room for more AANHPI students at community colleges and public universities in the Golden State.

NEW BOB WOODWARD BOOK coming Oct. 13: "The Last of the President's Men" - Simon & Schuster release: "Woodward exposes one of the final pieces of the Nixon puzzle in his new book 'The Last of the President's Men,' his 18th book for Simon & Schuster ... Woodward reveals the untold story of Alexander Butterfield, the Nixon aide [deputy to Chief of Staff H.R. Haldeman] who disclosed the secret White House taping system that led to Nixon's resignation. In 46 hours of interviews with Butterfield, supported by thousands of documents, many ... not in the presidential archives and libraries, Woodward has uncovered a new dimension of Nixon.

"'There's more to the story of Nixon,' Butterfield, now age 89, confided as he opened his secret archive of documents at Woodward's request, and then spent a year telling dozens of new, never before published anecdotes and incidents. ... Butterfield provides the intimate details of what it was like working and living just feet from the most powerful man in the world as he sought to navigate the obligations to his president and the truth of Nixon's obsessions and deceptions.

"'The Last of the President's Men' could not be more timely and relevant as voters question how much do we know about those who are now seeking the presidency in 2016-what really drives them, how do they really make decisions, who do they surround themselves with, and what are their true political and personal values?

"For four years in the West Wing, three of those working and watching from an office adjoining the Oval Office, Butterfield was regularly the first to see Nixon in the morning and the last at night, the constant insider and ultimately the most dangerous witness. At Nixon's request, Butterfield supervised the installation of the secret taping system that ... provided the evidence that ended Nixon's presidency. ...

"As Woodward writes, 'The secret taping system was not put in place until February 1971. There are no tapes of the first two years of the Nixon presidency.' Due not only to the thousands of pages of documents but 'By virtue of his proximity to the center of the Nixon universe and his extraordinary memory, Butterfield himself essentially became the tape recorder.' ...

"All 17 of the books [Woodward] has authored or coauthored for Simon & Schuster have been national nonfiction bestsellers, and 12 have been #1 national bestsellers. The first was 'All the President's Men' by Bernstein and Woodward ... in 1974. ... Alice Mayhew, Vice President and Editorial Director of Simon & Schuster, acquired world English rights and audio rights to 'The Last of the President's Men' from Robert Barnett of Williams & Connolly."

BIRTHDAYS THIS WEEK – Birthday wishes and thoughts this weekend to: Julie Andrews (80), Beverly Hills, CA; Frankie Avalon (75), Glendora, CA; Karen Ball …it is the big one, Littleton, CO; Rod Carew (70), Miami, FL; Tommy Lee Jones (69), Austin, TX; Mario Lemieux (50), Pittsburgh, PA; Devorah Lieberman …POTULV, Claremont, CA; Sophia Loren (81), Rome, Italy; Bill Murray (65), Scarsdale, NY; Kate Winslett (40), London, England.

TV WATCH -- ALEXANDRA PELOSI's new documentary, "San Francisco 2.0," airs all week on HBO. "With the onset of the digital gold rush, young members of the tech elite are flocking to the West Coast to make their fortunes, and this new wealth is forcing San Francisco to reinvent itself. But as tech innovations lead America into the golden age of digital supremacy, is it changing the heart and soul of their adopted city?" Trailer http://bit.ly/1LVf5w4

SO LONG YOGI - "It's deja vu all over again!" Baseball's Yogi Berra dies at 90. Top "Yogisms,": "You can't think and hit at the same time." ... On a restaurant: "Nobody goes there anymore. It's too crowded." ... "A nickel ain't worth a dime anymore." ... On the 1973 Mets: "We were overwhelming underdogs." ... "When you come to a fork in the road, take it." ... "I usually take a two-hour nap from 1 to 4." ... What time is it? "You mean now?" ... On a spring training drill: "Pair off in threes." ...

"Baseball is 90 percent mental. The other half is physical." ... "You can observe a lot by watching." ... On his team's diminishing pennant chances: "It ain't over 'till it's over." ... On his fractured syntax: "I really didn't say everything I said." ... A final piece of advice: "Always go to other people's funerals. Otherwise they won't go to yours."

A classic, he will be missed.

NFL PICK OF THE WEEK – Sunday 10/11, 1:25 PM ET CBS: Denver Broncos (4-0) at  Oakland Raiders (2-2) – are The Raiders back? This game will tell us; Raiders 24 Broncos 21. Season to date (2-2)

COLLEGE FOOTBALL PICK OF THE WEEK – Saturday 10/10, 12:30 PM ET BTN: #13 Northwestern Wildcats (5-0) at #18 University of Michigan Wolverines (4-1). The battle of the maybes in the Big Ten, Michigan 17 Northwestern 14. Season to date (3-2)

SMALL COLLEGE FOOTBALL PICK OF THE WEEK – Saturday 10/10, 1:00 PM ET HGTV: Alma Scots (2-2) at Adrian Bulldogs (2-2). We like the bulldogs in this MIAA rivalry game, 20 – 17.  Season to date (4-1)

THE SWAMI’S WEEK TOP PICKS –

(NCAA, Oct. 10) #23 California Bears (5-0) at #5 University of Utah Utes (4-0); Again, what is a Ute? Cal 42 – 35.

(NCAA-SCIAC, Oct. 10) It is Homecoming at La Verne; Claremont-Mudd Republicans (2-1) visit the University of La Verne Leos (2-1), Coach Chris Krich has a gutty group this season – La Verne wins 28 – 17.

(MLB, Oct. 7) Playoffs begin, end on Christmas Eve; Chicago Cubs (97-65) at Pittsburgh Pirates (98-64), Cubs Win, Cubs Win, 4 – 3.

(President’s Cup-PGA October. 8-11) PGA vs. International: Not the Ryder Cup, American’s win 18 - 16.

Season to date (75-44)

MARKET WEEK – STOCKS WORST QUARTER SINCE 2011 - US and global equities are had their worst quarterly performance since 2011, with investors rattled by China's economic slowdown, uncertainty over Federal Reserve policy and growing pessimism about corporate earnings. Adding to investors' unease, the International Monetary Fund last week warned that corporate failures were likely to jump in the developing world, after a borrowing binge in the past decade.

With an array of sectors slumping since the start of July, beyond those directly influenced by the rout in commodity prices, the global equity bull run of recent years is now facing a major challenge. The S&P 500 has fallen 8.5 per cent, the biggest decline since the third quarter of 2011. Previously high-flying sectors that led the market earlier this year, notably biotech and healthcare stocks, have fallen appreciably in recent weeks.

DRIVING THE WEEK - House expected to vote on new leadership this week (though timing could change) with House Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy remaining the front-runner for speaker ... The U.S. Supreme Court opens a new term this week and could take up the federal appeals court ruling making it harder to prosecute insider trading cases ...

Treasury Secretary Jack Lew heads to Lima, Peru later in the week for the IMF and World Bank meetings that begin Thursday ... Non-Manufacturing ISM Survey at 10:00 a.m. Monday expected to drop to 57.5 from 59 ... FOMC Minutes Thursday at 2:00 p.m. will offer some color on why the central bank held off a rate hike at its last meeting while giving few clues to when it will move (still likely in December) ... HAPPY ANNIVERSARY TARP! - Saturday marked the seventh anniversary of the bank rescue program. Treasury has a handy graphic and blog post looking back: http://bit.ly/1jItYXn, http://1.usa.gov/1GrmZqE

Next week: Words of the month, Dear Rink Rats and NHL preseason picks.

Until Next Monday, Adios.

Claremont, CA

October 5, 2015

#VI-15-277

CARTOON OF THE WEEK – Doonesbury by G.B. Trudeau

Back to School

The nation's school children and their families are well into the time of year we know as "back to school," filled with excitement and anxiety that accompany a new school year. Summer is also over for teachers and school leaders, who face controversies over testing, teacher evaluation, fundraising, and even the academic standards used to guide their work. Add to this a presidential campaign that's bound to stir up the politics of what we teach our kids and how we teach it, and you've got fuel to burn. Let's try to shed some light on a few of the issues that seem to generate the most heat to Rink Rats.

1). There is too much testing in U.S. classrooms.

There is no question that education is enamored with data, inching closer to its own version of Moneyball every day. Much of those data come from student assessments, including those that are state-mandated, plus an assortment of local tests and demographic indicators. Much of the debate over Federal education legislation involving education centers on reducing testing in public schools. But the clamor over too much testing obfuscates and masks three more important questions: Are the tests we are giving the right ones? How are educators using test results? What aren't we assessing that we should? The argument over too much testing is not the right one. If we care about outcomes and dollars spent, and about ensuring all American schoolchildren learn, then we need data that is visible to the public and to educators. We need multiple, valid indicators of the quality of classroom teaching and children's learning. We need data, but most importantly we need to know how to use it.

2). The “Reply All” mentality

An email storm (also called a Reply Allpocalypse) is a sudden spike of Reply All messages on an email distribution list, usually caused by a controversial, misdirected or worthless message. Such storms start when multiple members of the distribution list reply to the entire list at the same time in response to the instigating message. Other members soon respond, usually adding vitriol to the discussion, asking to be removed from the list, or pleading for the cessation of messages. If enough members reply to these unwanted messages this triggers a chain reaction of email messages. The sheer load of traffic generated by these storms can render the email servers inoperative, similar to a DDoS attack. But, more importantly, fellow colleagues, I do not care what you think!!! Keep me out of it.

3). All teachers in this school are terrific.

This is the "back to school night" mantra of every principal/school leader in the country. And as the leader of an organization with responsibilities for morale and the public face of a school, it is understandably the right thing for leaders to say. It's also not true and everyone knows it. A more nuanced version could be, "Every teacher in this school is prepared to teach your child and participates in this school's continuous improvement plan through which teachers will receive critical feedback and supervision to ensure they are not only prepared but performing at the level your child needs to be a successful learner." See #1 about data and measurement because to make this statement true, we have to be smarter about collecting the right data and using it well. We have a long way to go to make the more nuanced version of this mantra the reality in American schools. Unfortunately, by some estimates, including observations of almost ten thousand U.S. classrooms, 25 percent of teachers (across public, private, and charter schools) are not all that effective in fostering students' engagement and learning. The responsibility for this lies with unions that have stonewalled efforts to put metrics into teacher evaluation, reformers who have dogmatically stuck by narrow and controversial assessments of student learning and effective teaching, policies more focused on firing bad teachers rather than improving everyone, and teacher preparation programs that are more accountable to state bureaucrats than to learners. It's sad, but this is where we have landed 15 years after No Child Left Behind and dozens of reports calling for improvements. Shame on everyone; we all own this one.

4). Territorial world of Higher Education

The constant “ego” and territorial management of higher education departments; time to grow up people the students are the only ones who get hurt here: the lack of communication, cooperation, planning between departments/programs/colleges is inefficient and expensive.

5). Common Core is a federal takeover of a state role; winner or loser.

Educational standards describe what students should know and be able to do in each subject in each grade. In California, the State Board of Education decides on the standards for all students, from kindergarten through high school.

Since 2010, a number of states across the nation have adopted the same standards for English and math. These standards are called the Common Core State Standards (CCSS). Having the same standards helps all students get a good education, even if they change schools or move to a different state. Teachers, parents, and education experts designed the standards to prepare students for success in college and the workplace. This canard is being perpetrated actively by every Republican candidate for U.S. president except Jeb Bush, and even he is waffling his way through the questions. The Common Core State Standards Initiative was launched by governors, including many Republicans, and at one time was supported by 46 of them. The reason Common Core was so popular among governors was that they saw it as a way to raise standards for students and boost economic productivity and community well-being. And much of the impetus for higher standards came from the business community. Federal dollars were used to articulate standards and build assessments. Teachers' unions were supportive at first because these new standards required a way of teaching that wasn't the reviled "drill and kill" that was driven by the first wave of accountability testing. But once teachers' evaluations were tied to student performance, and it was looking like students might not perform so well on these new, higher standards, the unions joined forces with ideology on the right to undermine political will in statehouses across the country. The federal government also shares blame here. Had they developed and deployed the assessments for Common Core at a faster pace, we would now be focused on students' performance on skills far more relevant for their success now and into the future. And don't forget that the assessments for Common Core would also allow comparisons of how states' systems performed against one another on the same test, enabling the states to really be a laboratory of experimentation. And with similar tests and standards across states, the 30% of students who move across state lines would not have not start fresh every year.

6). Education still the most rewarding profession.

Try working in investments these days, Education is a wonderful profession: Students, colleagues, parents, administrators truly care about their work and outcomes. We just ask one and all to relax, lighten the load, and use common sense now and then.

Welcome back to school. It may be a new year, but it hardly feels like a fresh start.

BACK TO SCHOOL IN D.C. - Stay tuned for a busy fall in D.C. and beyond. The Education Department will be issuing a new round of School Improvement Grant data, a final rule that aims to improve teacher preparation programs and a comprehensive report about the Obama administration's signature Race to the Top program, among other things. And the agency is finally supposed to unveil its new consumer tool - the one that started out as a plan to rate colleges. In addition, the department's "special master" says he will continue to oversee the thousands of claims coming in from former Corinthian Colleges students seeking to have their student loan debt forgiven. Already, the department has wiped away $40 million in such debt, with the ultimate price tag potentially in the billions.

- Then, there's the impending demise of the Perkins loan program: The clock is running out on a $1 billion, 57-year-old student loan program that helps the very poor. Perkins, a relatively small, campus-based federal loan program has survived threats before. But with a Sept. 30 expiration looming, key Republicans lawmakers showing no inclination to act, and the Education Department advising institutions not to enroll new borrowers, this could finally be the end of the road for the federal government's oldest student loan program - even in the midst of a presidential campaign focused on college costs. "Extending the Perkins loan program comes at a significant cost to taxpayers and provides little benefit to students," Senate education committee Chairman Lamar Alexander said. Higher education officials say the loans are critical to a student who’s other federal grants and loans don't quite cover costs.

BACK TO SCHOOL BY THE NUMBERS: Based on Census data from 2012, 2013 and 2014: http://1.usa.gov/1JNSrzY.

- $8.2 billion: The estimated amount spent at family clothing stores in August.

- 78 million: The number of children and adults enrolled in school.

- 75 percent: The percentage of 3 to 6 year olds enrolled in school.

- 25 percent: Percentage of K-12 students with at least one foreign born parent.

- $82,720: Average earnings of full-time workers with a bachelor's degree or higher.

BACK TO SCHOOL FOR CONGRESS - WELCOME BACK! SHUTDOWN AHEAD? - Washington really didn't need to make it tougher to avoid a government shutdown when the new fiscal year begins on October 1. But the prospects that no deal would happen, which we estimated at 60 percent at the beginning of August, got worse last week when it became clear the White House would have the votes it needed to prevent Congress from stopping the deal it negotiated with Iran.

The Obama administration's impending win on Iran complicates the already problematical CR debate even further. Because of that, I'm increasing my estimate of the chance of a government shutdown to 67 percent. ... The Iran deal worsens the outlook for a shutdown for two reasons. The first is the amount of time it will take for Congress to debate the issue. ... The second reason for the increasing odds of a shutdown: the continuing resolution will provide those senators and representatives against the deal with a second bite of the disapproval apple.

COLLEGE CHRONICLES - The gap in wealth and income between rich and poor is the worst since the Great Depression, and the gap between the rich and the middle class is at its highest since the government began keeping such statistics 30 years ago. After more than three decades of income growth for the wealthiest 10 percent and stagnation for everybody else, the top 3 percent now has more wealth than the bottom 90 percent.

Meanwhile, Yale University increasingly resembles a large corporation rather than the quiet, if haughty, academic institution that Horowitz and Gillette attended. With an endowment of nearly $24 billion, administrators are constantly expanding their hospital complex and real-estate holdings in New Haven. Recently they awarded the departing President Richard Levin, who had swelled the treasury, a whopping bonus of $8.5 million. As the university grows, its "officials seek to contain unionism and, if possible, shrink its base," writes Jennifer Klein, a history professor at Yale. When "full-time employees retire or leave, they are often not replaced. New corporate vice presidents (from companies such as PepsiCo) work to de-skill jobs as well as to downsize staff."

Whether ivory tower or big business or a fusion of both, Yale continues to provide its chosen ones with the same self-confidence and cultural capital it did during the 1960s. Whatever a student’s race, gender, or sexual identity, she or he has an excellent chance to win a race that most other citizens can barely afford to enter. Unless that begins to change, both Yale and the society its graduates help to rule will stay much as they are.

THE BEST JOBS FOR YOUNG ADULTS: High school seniors and college students might want to consider a career as a physician's assistant, an actuary, a statistician or a biomedical engineer, according to a new report from Young Invincibles. Those jobs are considered the best ones for young adults based on their salaries, projected future growth and access to the positions. About half of the top 25 jobs are in the STEM fields and more than half of the top 25 employ more men than women. Most of the top jobs require an associate's degree or a bachelor's degree, but one notable outlier on the list is elevator installer and repairer. It's a job that requires no postsecondary degree, but is highly in demand, offers significant growth and a competitive salary. While no degree is necessary, the Bureau of Labor Statistics says that job candidates often need an apprenticeship under their belt to be considered, "which highlights the importance and potential of the Registered Apprenticeship program as an option for young adults seeking a productive career without attending college," the report says.

ADJUNCT JUNCTURE: Carolina Frederickson of the liberal American Constitution Society writes in the Washington Monthly about university adjuncts, concluding that American universities are enriching administrators at the expense of teachers. Adjuncts, Frederickson explains, have been gradually displacing tenured faculty. "In 1969," she writes, "almost 80 percent of college faculty members were tenured or tenure track. Today, the numbers have essentially flipped, with two-thirds of faculty now non-tenure and half of those working only part-time, often with several different teaching jobs." Meanwhile, "universities increased the number of administrator positions by 60 percent between 1993 and 2009, ten times the rate at which they added tenured positions." By 2013, Frederickson writes, less than one third of college and university revenue was being spent on instruction.

EVEN PRESIDENTS CRY- If first day of school goodbyes left you with tears, you're not alone. President Barack Obama admitted Wednesday to crying as his daughter Malia started the first day of her senior year of high school Tuesday. "You know, I was sitting in her room because I was going to see her off ... her first day of school. She puts her head on my shoulder and she says, 'Daddy, you know, you realize this is probably going to be the last time that you ever send me off for my first day of school ... And I started - I had to look away. I didn't want to just be such a crybaby," Obama said from his speech at Macomb Community College in Michigan.

BIRTHDAYS THIS WEEK – Birthday wishes and thoughts this weekend to: Maria Bartiromo (48) New York, NY, Carly Fiorina (61) Palo Alto, CA,  Hugh Grant (55) London, England, Bob Newhart (86) Beverly Hills, CA, Raquel Welch (75) Carmel, CA

HAPPY RETURN TO FOOTBALL!! - The National Football League's 32 teams received an especially pleasant bonus at the end of its recently completed fiscal year - some $226 million apiece from league headquarters, or nearly $40 million more than each team got the previous year. ... Those funds, from revenue produced mainly by national media and sponsorship deals, are set to rise once again, pushing the NFL's annual take for the new season that kicked off last Thursday in Foxborough, Mass., to more than $12 billion.

COLLEGE FOOTBALL PICK OF THE WEEK – Saturday 9/19, 12:30 PM ET, ABC: #14 Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (2-0) at #8 Notre Dame Fighting Irish (2-0). Best Irish team we have seen in the Brian Kelly era, Irish 35 Jackets 28.  Season to date (1-1)

SMALL COLLEGE FOOTBALL PICK OF THE WEEK – Saturday 9/19, 1:00 PM ET, HGTV: #15 Hobart Statesmen (2-0) visit Ithaca College Bombers (1-0), Hobart is the best of the Liberty League, 24 – 21. Season to date (2-0)

THE SWAMI’S WEEK TOP PICKS –

(NCAA, Sept. 19) #18 Auburn Tigers (2-0) at #13 LSU Tigers: The Swami likes LSU in a close one; 38 – 35.

(NCAA-SCIAC, Sept. 19) University of La Verne Leopards (1-0) at Whitworth Pirates (1-0): We predicted a 6-3 season for the Leos, this is one of the loses; 35 – 24.

(MLB, Sept. 19) St. Louis Cardinals (89-54) at Chicago Cubs (82-60): the Cubbies are for real; Cubs win 5 – 3.

(Solheim Cup-LPGA Sept. 18-20) LPGA vs. European LPGA: a route in Germany, American women professional golf is in trouble, Europe wins 19 – 9.

Season to date (70-35)

MARKET WEEK – China continues to shake the world. In recent weeks, stocks, currencies and commodities have swung dramatically on signs of a slowdown in Chinese growth. Disappointing economic data out of the world’s second-largest economy, as well as the devaluation of its currency, have exacerbated concerns. Oil prices resumed their downward trajectory today and global stock markets steadied, as investors remain wary. Meanwhile, China is imposing new controls to prevent too much money from leaving the country, with lenders beefing up internal checks on foreign-exchange conversions and regulators aiming to rein in illegal money-transfer agents.

DRIVING THE WEEK - The Fed announcement Thursday is the biggest game in town followed by the GOP debate Wednesday ... President Obama is in Iowa today to talk college access and affordability ... Retail sales Tuesday at 8:30 a.m. expected to rise 0.3 percent headline and 0.2 percent ex-autos ... FOMC makes its announcement at 2:00 p.m. Thursday followed by Yellen presser. Narrow consensus is no change but a stronger hint that labor conditions mean a rate hike is close ... Leading indicators on Friday at 10:00 a.m. expected to rise 0.2 percent.

Next week: Words of the month and Dear Rink Rats.

Until Next Monday, Happy Rosh Hashanah.

Claremont, CA

September 14, 2015

#VI-14-276

CARTOON OF THE WEEK – Reply All

The High Price of Cheap Oil

“The oil industry, with its history of booms and busts, is in a new downturn,” said Clifford Krauss in The New York Times. The price of oil closed at $44.10 a barrel on September 1 for the first time since 2009, a 60 percent plunge from its peak last year. The explanation “boils down to the simple economics of supply and demand.” The world is awash in crude, with U.S. oil production doubling over the past six years. Meanwhile, the economic slowdown in China, the world’s largest oil importer, and sluggish growth in other developing countries are crippling demand. There’s no end in sight for the global oil glut. Lower prices mean even more pressure on oil-producing countries to pump to make up for lost revenues. Saudi Arabia, Russia, and Iraq are pumping as many barrels as they can in order to defend their market share, in a battle that’s looking increasingly like “the energy-industry version of trench warfare.”

At first look, $44-a-barrel oil sounds like a beautiful thing. American consumers get cheaper gas, businesses benefit from lower energy bills, and automakers sell more vehicles, especially gas-guzzling trucks and SUVs. But there’s a price to pay for all this cheap oil. Employment in the 500,000-person U.S. oil and gas industry will take a hit as energy companies scale back operations. Cheap, plentiful gasoline could also derail work on alternative fuel sources like solar and wind. Jobs are already being lost in the energy industry around the world. Last week, Royal Dutch Shell said it would eliminate 6,500 jobs worldwide in response to collapsing crude prices. Because such layoffs tend to lag market prices, more job cuts could be on the way.

In Texas, cash-strapped oil companies are already shifting into survival mode. Companies are slashing costs by putting hundreds of rigs into storage and canceling expensive projects, including deep-water drilling and oil sands extraction. Gone are the days of frenetic growth, lavish spending, and frantic hiring sprees. The one bright spot: Companies that survive will emerge leaner and more cost-conscious, focused on safer bets in areas with proven resources.

The most dramatic consequences of the oil bust will unfold beyond U.S. borders. When a similar drop happened in the 1980s, the Soviet Union collapsed. Countries that rely on oil revenues are “facing a fiscal reckoning” that could fuel unrest. Venezuela’s socialist government has long been propped up by oil, which makes up 96 percent of its exports. Vladimir Putin’s reign has coincided with a steep rise in oil prices, but Russia’s economy is expected to contract 3.4 percent this year. Saudi Arabia, where the royal family spends oil revenues lavishly to preserve its legitimacy, now faces massive budget deficits. Cheap oil may be a boon for consumers, but it will create more uncertainty in an already uncertain world.

COLLEGE CHRONICLES - DISCOUNT RATES RISING: The average private four-year college covered 48 percent of their institution's advertised tuition and fees in 2014-15, up from 43.4 percent the year prior, according to an annual study from the National Association of College and University Business Officers. The 48-percent tuition discount rate is the highest in the study's 21-year history. In an effort to attract more students, colleges continue to increase their discount rates (resulting in lower net tuition revenue) across the board, the survey found. The average discount rate - defined by NACUBO as institutional grant dollars as a percentage of gross tuition and fee revenue - reached 41.6 percent last year for all undergraduates, up from 39.8 percent in 2013-14. The 411 private colleges surveyed provided slightly more students with financial aid, too. Nearly 90 percent of first-time, full-time freshmen and 77.1 percent of all undergraduates got institutional grant aid in 2014-15, including scholarships, fellowships and other grants that covered an average of 54.3 percent and 48.9 percent of tuition and fees, respectively.

Congrats to the University of La Verne and their annual golf fundraising tournament, the event raised $80,000 for their scholarship funds. Here is a picture of a distinguished group of golfers from left to right; Hal Assel, Adjunct Professor of Marketing; Catherine Abbott, current student; Allison Krich, Adjunct Instructor Kinesiology; Chris Krich, Head Football Coach; Devorah Lieberman, POTULV; Unidentified golfer; Mark Jebbia, current student; Jeff Bracken, Group VP & General Manager Lexus Division Toyota Motor Corporation.

BIG EIGHT O - Social Security turns 80. The Peter G. Peterson Foundation has some charts to mark the occasion like this one showing Social Security is expected to run a cumulative cash deficit of $2.8 trillion between now and 2034: http://bit.ly/1EjGCjl.

AUTO LOANS ENTER $1 TRILLION CLUB - The amount of auto loans in the U.S. has passed the $1 trillion mark for the first time, joining student loans: With the recession now six years behind in the nation's rearview mirror, lending for automobiles has sharply accelerated: Around $119 billion in auto loans were originated in the second quarter of this year, a 10-year high, according to figures from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York released Thursday.

GAME CHANGE - "Biden strategy for White House run taking shape: 'I think he's getting closer to saying yes,' one Biden ally says: With his blessing, confidants to Vice President Joe Biden have begun strategizing about travel to early primary states and identified potential donors who could bankroll a campaign even as he remains undecided about whether to pull the trigger on a late-entry 2016 run for president. ... Biden's strategy ... would be to focus on South Carolina while almost writing off New Hampshire, where both Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders have considerable footholds.

Biden proxies have also homed in on rich supporters who could help finance a run through a super PAC - in particular, Baltimore Orioles owner Peter Angelos, a past top donor to both Joe and Beau Biden, whom Democratic operatives noted has not yet given to the Hillary Clinton-backing Priorities USA Action ... Biden allies also have set their sights on Geocities founder and tech investor David Bohnett, a longtime Democratic donor. Angelos didn't return a call for comment. ... There is significant operational planning going on around him.

The final call ... is expected to be made at a meeting [not yet scheduled] of the vice president's closest circle of advisers at his home in Wilmington, Delaware; they are likely to include chief of staff Steve Ricchetti, Mike Donilon, former Sen. Ted Kaufman, Larry Rasky and Tom Donilon, along with Biden's son, Hunter, and his oldest and closest political adviser, his sister Valerie Biden Owens. Ricchetti and Mike Donilon have been involved with many of the discussions going on already.

After enduring months of ridicule fueled by Donald Trump, whose frequent outrageous comments have forced a number of GOP rivals into a corner, and as a seemingly endless parade of Republican contenders have jumped into the presidential race, there's a sense of relief at the idea of Biden mounting a late-in-the-game run and mixing up the Democratic field.

Days until the 2015 election: 61. Days until the 2016 election: 432.

MADE IN CHINA: THE NEXT GLOBAL RECESSION? - The policy panic in Beijing over its currency and the fall of its stock market suggest that the next global recession likely will be made in China. The problem is that China's economic rise of late has been facilitated by a massive and unsustainable stimulus campaign, no emerging nation in recorded history has ever tacked on debt at such a furious pace as China has since 2008, and a rapid increase in debt is the single most reliable predictor of economic slowdowns and financial crisis.

So before you start talking about how this is "like 2008" remember that it isn't. At all. It's an equity price decline following a big run-up in valuations. There is no huge underlying debt bubble ready to pop with horrific consequences. The U.S. economy still looks pretty decent though a rising dollar, an ill-timed Fed rate hike and hits to consumer confidence from scary stock market headlines could still tilt things the wrong way.

BIRTHDAYS THIS WEEK – Birthday wishes and thoughts this weekend to: Frank Robinson (79) Tucson, AZ., John McCain (79) Phoenix, AZ., Dr. Phil McGraw (65) Beverly Hills, CA., Jessica Naccache ….famous financial consultant, Itzhak Perlman (70) New York, NY, Tom Ridge (70) Latrobe, PA.,  Shania Twain (50) Maui, HI. 

SPORTS BLINK - Vin Scully to return for record 67th year with Dodgers, The Dodgers ... revealed the news last Friday night in the second inning... Magic Johnson, a co-owner of the team, appeared on the Dodger Stadium video board to tell the crowd that Jimmy Kimmel had a major announcement. ... The 87-year-old Scully stood up and waved from his booth as the crowd cheered. The Hall of Fame announcer's consecutive years of service make him the longest-tenured broadcaster with one team in sports history. ...

Scully calls all nine innings of the team's home games and road games in California and Arizona for the Dodgers' television home on SportsNet LA, while the first three innings of his games are simulcast on the radio. ... A dispute between Time Warner Cable and other cable [companies] now in its second year is keeping 70 percent of the [L.A. TV] market from seeing the team's games. ... Even Scully can't watch road games because he lives in an area not served by Time Warner.

Scully began his ... career in 1950 with the Brooklyn Dodgers. He has called three perfect games, 25 World Series and 12 All-Star games. He was behind the microphone for Kirk Gibson's Game 1 homer in the 1988 World Series, Don Larsen's perfect game in the 1956 World Series, Hank Aaron's record-setting 715th home run and Sandy Koufax's four no-hitters, including a perfect game.

COLLEGE FOOTBALL PICK OF THE WEEK – Saturday 9/5, 5:00 PM ET, ABC: #20 Wisconsin Badgers (0-0) vs. #3 Alabama Crimson Tide (0-0); first game, first upset, Badgers 32 Tide 24, thank you!  Season to date (0-0)

SMALL COLLEGE FOOTBALL PICK OF THE WEEK – Saturday 9/5, 12:00 PM ET, HGTV: #19 St. John Fisher Cardinals (0-0) visit #23 Thomas More Saints (0-0), early season matchup between the E8 and the PAC Conferences: we like the Cardinals in a road victory 24 – 21. Season to date (0-0)

Rink Rats NFL Preseason Picks –

NFC :

East – Cowboys                     North – Green Bay                South – Carolina       

West – Seattle            Wild Cards – Philly and St. Louis                

Conference Champion – Seattle Seahawks

AFC:

East – New England  North – Baltimore                 South – Indianapolis

West – Denver           Wild Cards – Houston and Pittsburgh

Conference Champion – Indianapolis Colts

Super Bowl Champion – Seattle Seahawks

THE SWAMI’S WEEK TOP PICKS –

(NCAA, Sept. 5) #13 UCLA Bruins (0-0) at Virginia Cavaliers (0-0): The Swami likes UCLA in a close one; 28 – 24.

(NCAA-SCIAC, Sept. 5) George Fox Bruins (0-0) at University of La Verne Leopards: Now is the time for The Leos; 35 – 24.

(MLB, Sept. 5) Pittsburgh Pirates (79-53) at St. Louis Cardinals (86-47): two National League powers; Red Birds win 4 – 3.

Season to date (64-34)

Next week: Words of the month and Dear Rink Rats.

Until Next Monday, Adios.

Claremont, CA

September 4, 2015

#VI-13-275

CARTOON OF THE WEEKEND – The New Yorker