$971, $200, $15

The state of America’s sports is a rip off. The average ticket price to watch a 16-65 Los Angeles Laker team final game of the season, and yes Kobe’s last game, is $971. Nine hundred and seventy one dollars to watch a once was and a bunch of has beens!

A student at the University of Michigan has to make a deposit of two hundred dollars by May 1 to have the opportunity to purchase a season ticket for the 2016 football season.  Really?

A ten ounce beer at Los Angeles Dodger stadium costs fifteen dollars. Really?

Fifty percent of the Los Angeles television market cannot view Los Angeles Dodger baseball games due to a monopolized cable television agreement. While Magic Johnson (he owns 1%, 1% of the Dodgers) says he is a man of the people. ESPN begins games at 9:30 p.m. eastern time, the University of California at Los Angeles head football coach is the highest paid California state employee. Really?

I sure miss Downton Abbey.

POLITICS 101 - LET'S PLAY MONEYBALL - Guests on Chris Matthews' "Hardball" gave wife's House campaign: Forty-eight frequent guests on Chris Matthews' "Hardball" TV show have given the House campaign of his wife, Kathleen Matthews, who's running for the open seat in Maryland's 8th District. "These individuals, their spouses, or their political action committees donated $79,050 as of December 31, 2015 - about 5 percent of the $1.5 million Matthews had raised as of that time," The Intercept reports. "Some of the guests made the donations after they were on the show - in some cases, long after. But in at least 11 of these cases, the Hardball guests appeared on the program after Kathleen Matthews announced her candidacy, and without any disclosure of the donations. And in at least three of those cases, the donations came within days of the MSNBC appearance.

Los Angeles Times (CA Governor Race) on #cagov2018: Newsom, Villaraigosa, Chiang, Faulconer, Garcetti, Steyer, Swearengin, Westly, and ... Condoleezza Rice? http://lat.ms/1V6nqkx

POLITICS INVADES HOLLYWOOD - Already, release schedules for the months preceding Nov. 8, Election Day, are peppered with movies that have partisan potential, whether overt or covert. Among the movies listed: "Independence Day: Resurgence," "The Purge: Election Year," "Southside With You" and Oliver Stone's "Snowden."

Days until the New York primary: 7. Days until the 2016 election: 209.

BIRTHDAYS THIS WEEK – Birthday wishes and thoughts this week to: Governor Jerry Brown (78) Sacramento, CA; Hugh Hefner (90) Bel Aire, CA; John Madden (80) Oakland, CA; Dennis Quaid (62) Pasadena, CA; Joe Scarborough (53) Scarsdale, NY; Marion Roach Smith…famous writer and St. Lawrence University alumni; Robin Wright (50) Woodland Hills, CA.

WEEKEND READS --"Is 'Friends' Still the Most Popular Show on TV?" by Adam Sternbergh in New York Magazine : "Why so many 20-somethings want to stream a 20-year-old sitcom about a bunch of 20-somethings sitting around in a coffee shop.”

COLLEGE CHRONICLES – China U: The huge wave of Chinese students entering American higher education seems beneficial for both sides. The students are clamoring for American credentials, while U.S. schools want their tuition dollars. But on the ground, American campuses are struggling to absorb the rapid and growing influx. Teachers bluntly say a significant portion of international students are ill prepared for an American college education, and resent having to amend their lectures as a result. The unhappiness appears to be mutual. Chinese students are finding themselves separated from their American peers due to their high numbers and language and cultural barriers. One student who came from Beijing to study business at Oregon State University said, “I didn’t expect to go abroad and take classes with so many Chinese people.”

HARVARD AFFIRMATIVE ACTION CASE HINGES ON FISHER: A judge has placed a stay on the court case filed against Harvard by an anti-affirmative action group pending the outcome of Fisher v. University of Texas before the Supreme Court. The suit alleges that Harvard's admissions policies put Asian-Americans at a disadvantage. Court watchers have been waiting to see how the death of Justice Antonin Scalia may affect the Fisher case. Justice Elena Kagan recused herself, and leaving only three liberal justices deciding the case, so a conservative majority would require just four votes. The ruling: http://bit.ly/1V4fvUS.

- Speaking of the Supreme Court, the Council for American Private Education is celebrating Scalia in its latest newsletter, detailing his legacy supporting private education. Among the cases it cited in which Scalia was part of a majority supporting private and religious schools: Mitchell v. Helms, a 2000 decision that upheld an ESEA requirement that school districts lend materials and equipment to religious schools; Zelman v. Simmons-Harris, a 2002 decision that upheld the constitutionality of vouchers for religious schools; and Arizona Christian School Tuition Organization v. Winn , a 2011 decision that upheld an Arizona program that offered tax credits for contributions to school tuition organizations. "As influential as Scalia's 282 majority opinions and 'occasional' dissents have been to the court's overall vitality, his ideas, words, and votes have had particular significance over the years on decisions affecting private education," CAPEoutlook wrote.

HEDGE FUND CLOSURES SOAR - More hedge funds closed their doors in 2015 than at any time since the financial crisis, according to new research, as turbulent markets dragged down the industry's performance. Last year was the worst year for liquidations since 2009, with 979 funds closing, up from 864 in 2014, according to data from Hedge Fund Research. The fourth quarter of 2015 also saw the fewest new hedge funds starting up since 2009, with just 183 openings compared with 269 in the third quarter.

The figures capture a period in which many of the industry's marquee names suffered significant losses. The HFRI Fund Weighted Composite index fell 0.9 per cent last year, HFR data show. December saw a flurry of funds converting into family offices, including Michael Platt's BlueCrest and Doug Hisch's Seneca Capital, or shutting entirely as Lucidus Capital Partners did following redemptions. Unnerved by jerky markets, hedge fund clients became fearful of risk and less patient with poor returns in the second half of the year.

BRAZIL IN CRISIS - Brazil was teetering on the brink of a constitutional crisis on Thursday after a judge blocked President Dilma Rousseff's appointment of her predecessor, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, to her cabinet, prompting clashes in Congress and on the streets. Just as Mr Lula da Silva's swearing-in ceremony drew to a close, a federal judge issued an injunction, suspending the ex-president's appointment on the grounds that it prevented 'the free exercise of justice' in corruption investigations. ...

Opposition politicians hailed the decision as a triumph for Brazilian democracy, while the government vowed to appeal, lambasting the order as part of a 'coup' by the country's elite, reminiscent of Brazil's period of military rule. Brazilian assets rallied as investors bet on the government's collapse ... Mass protests swept the country on Wednesday and Thursday night after a court released incendiary recordings of Mr Lula da Silva's private conversations that fueled accusations he had been appointed as minister only to shield him from immediate arrest.

GOING IN REVERSE - The term “subprime loan” strikes fear into the heart of many an investor. But forget, if you can, the mortgage loans that were central to the last financial crisis, it is early defaults in subprime auto loans that are now raising concerns. A report  last week indicated that some of these loans packaged up in recent bond issues are showing cracks, with high levels of missed payments and in a small number of cases where borrowers have filed for bankruptcy or had vehicles repossessed. Bond issues backed by U.S. subprime auto loans topped $27 billion last year, the highest in a decade and a 25% increase from 2014. Some say the appetite for auto debt is what is fueling the boom, and expect defaults to rise. But many analysts brush off suggestions of a subprime auto-loan bubble, pointing to low gas prices and stable unemployment rates.

L.A. COUNTY DEBT - has doubled to $20 billion: http://lat.ms/1pLfERb

WELCOME TO EARNINGS SEASON: IT'S GONNA STINK - On Monday, Alcoa kicks off what we expect to be a disappointing 1Q earnings season. Our year-end 2016 S&P 500 target of 2100 implies just 3 percent upside from the current level. ... 1Q 2016 year/year EPS growth will be at best flat but could fall by as much as 9 percent given the poor operating environment for banks and energy firms ...

Corporates are currently unable to execute discretionary buybacks, the only source of demand for US shares. ... Our analysts have highlighted a laundry list of headwinds including energy counterparty risk, a slowdown in capital markets activity, and a bruising quarter for asset managers. We believe Financials EPS could fall by as much as 25 percent.

MARCUS WELBY, M.D. – Five Things Lack of Sleep Does to Your Body:

Researchers say insufficient sleep is associated with negative behavior and physical consequences including:

•          an increased risk of developing Type 2 diabetes

•          weakened immunity and an increased tendency to get sick

•          weakened cognitive function including memory, alertness and decision-making

•          increased impulsiveness, risk-taking and addictive behavior

•          eating more and eating more unhealthy foods

COLLEGE HOCKEY GAME OF THE WEEK – Congratulations to the North Dakota Fighting Hawks (34-6-4) on their eighth NCAA Hockey Championship beating the Quinnipiac Bobcats (32-4-7) 5 – 1.

Some key story lines to watch in the offseason: (1). Who will be the new coach of the St. Lawrence University Skating Saints? (2). Is Michigan State University Spartans due for a new coach? (3). The Quinnipiac Bobcats move to the Hockey East Conference.

Season to date (11-8).

TOP SNOBS – After watching The Masters golf tournament this past weekend no doubt in my mind that it is good TV watching but the idiotic club rules and traditions make the members of the Augusta National Golf Club Top Snobs.

There goes my chance of gaining a membership to Augusta National, but Really???

The green jacketed members of the powerful private club famously tell the biggest golf stars, TV networks and sponsors what to do and how to do it. Despite the millions earned by today's golfers, they're still "gutless" when it comes to meekly obeying Augusta's strict rules and regulations, according to golf legend Lee Trevino. Also, the word diversity is not at all seen at the Augusta National Golf Club.

OH, OH CANADA – For the first time since 1969 no Canadian team is in the Stanley Cup Playoffs: Montreal Canadians, Ottawa Senators, Toronto Maple Leafs, Vancouver Canucks, Calgary Flames, Edmonton Oilers, and the Winnipeg Jets. What is going on….eh?

THE SWAMI’S WEEK TOP PICKS –

National Hockey League Stanley Cup Playoff Picks:

Eastern Conference: #1 Washington Capitals (4-2) over #8 Philadelphia Flyers;  #7 New York Islanders (4-3) over the #2 Florida Panthers; #2 Pittsburgh Penguins (4-3) over the #3 New York Rangers; #3 Detroit Red Wings (4-2) over Tampa Bay Lightning.

Conference Semis - Washington Capitals (4-1) over the New York Islanders; Pittsburgh Penguins (4-1) over the Detroit Red Wings.

Conference Finals - Washington Capitals (4-3) over the Pittsburgh Penguins

Western Conference: #1 Dallas Stars (4-1) over the #8 Minnesota Wild; #2 Anaheim Ducks (4-2) over the Nashville Predators; #2 St. Louis Blues (4-3) over the #3 Chicago Black Hawks; #2 Los Angeles Kings (4-3) over the #3 San Jose Sharks.

Conference Semis – Los Angeles Kings (4-3) over the Dallas Stars; Anaheim Ducks (4-2) over the St. Louis Blues.

Conference Finals – Anaheim Ducks (4-2) over the Los Angeles Kings

Stanley Cup Champs – Anaheim Ducks (4-2) over the Washington Capitals

Season to date (32 -18)

MARKET WEEK - Market volatility reared its head again on Thursday as the VIX rallied 10% while stock markets and interest rates fell sharply amidst global growth concerns. These jitters stabilized somewhat on Friday with equities paring some losses to end the week down around 1%.

The week ahead, investors will be paying attention to economic data from the U.S., the International Monetary Fund meeting, corporate earnings from the U.S. and some key offshore data.

The focus for the week in the United States will be the release of the March Consumer Price Index. As the chance of deflation continues to dwindle the Fed will be hoping to see inflation continue its path to the 2% target. The consensus is for a rise of 0.2%. The CPI number is preceded by Wednesday's Producer Price Index that tracks prices at the producer level before it is passed onto the consumer.

Wednesday also sees the release of the March retail sales data where investors will be looking for a rebound from February's -0.1% fall.

The week is rounded off with the release of U.S. Industrial Production Index data.

DRIVING THE WEEK - Treasury Secretary Jack Lew at 8:30 a.m. on Monday delivers remarks at the Council on Foreign Relations in DC on "America and the Global Economy: The Case for U.S. Leadership" ... President Obama on Monday afternoon will meet with Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen "to discuss the state of the American and global economy, Wall Street Reform, and the long-term economic outlook" ... U.S. Chamber of Commerce hosts a summit Tuesday at 8:30 a.m. on investing in American featuring Lew, Secretary of Commerce Penny Pritzker, Secretary of Transportation Anthony Foxx, Senator John McCain, Governor Scott Walker and Governor Terry McAuliffe ... What are expected to be grim first quarter bank earnings begin this week with JPMorganChase on Wednesday and Bank of America on Thursday ... IMF and World Bank hold spring meetings beginning Tuesday ... Senate Finance Committee at 10:00 a.m. Tuesday holds a hearing on cybercrime ... Senate Appropriations on Tuesday at 10:30 a.m. holds a hearing and the SEC and CFTC budgets ... House Natural Resources holds a hearing Wednesday at 10:00 a.m. on the Puerto Rico bill ... House Small Business Committee has a hearing Wednesday at 2:30 p.m. on small business tax simplification ... Senate Banking on Thursday at 10:00 a.m. has a hearing on the bond market featuring Treasury Counselor Antonio Weiss ... Retail sales at 8:30 a.m. Wednesday expected to rise 0.1 percent and 0.4 percent ex-autos ... Producer Prices at 8:30 a.m. Wednesday expected to rise 0.3 percent headline and 0.1 percent core ... Consumer Prices at 8:30 a.m. Thursday expected to rise 0.2 percent headline and core ... Industrial Production at 9:15 a.m. Friday expected to dip 0.1 percent ... Univ. Michigan Consumer Sentiment at 9:55 a.m. Friday expected to rise to 92.0 from 91.0.

Next week: Top Five.

Until Next Monday, Adios.

Claremont, CA

April 11, 2016

#VI-37-299

CARTOON OF THE WEEK –The Democratic Campaign

Beer & Whiskey Pretty Risky, Whiskey & Beer Have No Fear

We are back; Spring Break and a family funeral have kept us away since March 14.

Risk, a word that means different things, in different situations, to different people: Risk may be working for a supervisor who has no clue what is going on and is evil to boot; Risk may be not taking care of oneself health wise; Risk may be watching John Travolta’s new face in the O.J. Simpson Trial on FX; as the Blog title suggests Risk may be drinking the wrong combination of beverage;  finally Risk may be trying to manage one’s finances in these economic times.

The three biggest risks to the economy over the past year have often been reported as the commodity plunge, China and central banks losing their effectiveness. Two of the three were recently cited by Morgan Stanley. In Morgan Stanley’s opinion, lower oil prices are not having as much of a positive impact as they have had over the past year. Additionally, the financial services firm worries about how much of an impact easy monetary policy will have going forward.

Based on these conditions, Morgan Stanley believes that the global economy is vulnerable to shocks, including ineffective moves by the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank and Bank of Japan. It also cited the refugee crisis in Europe and Turkey, the potential for Brexit, geopolitical concerns in the Middle East, and an impeachment scandal in Brazil.

Other risks not specifically mentioned by Morgan Stanley should also be considered. They include record global debt levels, China at overcapacity and overleveraged and massive derivatives exposure for Deutsche Bank AG (DB) and JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM). Risks also include the unknown impact of negative interest rates implemented by five central banks around the world and aging populations in the world’s largest economies, which is fueling deflation.

The investment brokerage expects global growth of 3% in 2016. This will be led by a slowdown in developed markets, especially in the United States, where it sees growth of 1.7% in 2016 and 1.6% in 2017. The International Monetary Fund also recently warned of a global recession, stating that risks have increased. This is despite the recent rally in equities. Last month, Citigroup Inc. (C) warned of the potential for global recession.

These are far from the only bearish opinions out there. While the next opinion doesn’t have quite the amount of exposure of Morgan Stanley, the IMF and Citigroup, his opinion is widely respected on Wall Street.

Chain Reaction - Dennis Gartman, the editor and publisher of The Gartman Letter, expects a chain reaction that doesn’t end up in a positive place. In his opinion higher oil prices indicate a strong economy, which will lead to interest rate hikes. When this happens, it will lead to reduced demand for equities and corporations will allocate more capital to growth than stock buybacks. He expects this to lead to a wider divergence between the real economy and the stock market, and that a growing economy will lead to further Fed tightening. This will weaken the economy and lead to lower stock prices.

That theory might be correct, but you can’t discount the theory that oil isn’t helping the economy and that instead it’s an effect of a weak economy. If this theory is correct the divergence between the real economy and the stock market is the opposite, which means the real economy is weak and the stock market is strong. This would explain why the Federal Reserve is so conflicted. It’s dual mandate is 2% inflation and full employment, but it won’t raise rates unless the stock market is behaving. As many of you know, if you remove Federal Reserve policy, the stock market would be nowhere near where it is today. A recent study showed that 93% of S&P 500 performance since the financial crisis was caused by the Federal Reserve. And if you’re paying attention to basic technical analysis, the 200-day moving average for the S&P 500 shows resistance at 2,025 and support at 1,820. That’s not a good risk/reward. Regardless of which theory is correct, neither lead to a bullish scenario.

The Bottom Line - The global economy is in poor condition. There is simply slowing growth around the world. Without central bank intervention, we would absolutely be dealing with a global recession (or worse) right now. The problem is that the more central banks offer support, the more debt is accumulated. That debt will eventually come due, which leads to a deleveraging process. You can’t allocate capital to massive deleveraging and growth at the same time, which only makes the deflationary scenario worse in the future. Either we deal with the pain now and limit the damage, or face a much bigger problem down the road.

IPO NO GO - First quarter ends with almost no IPO activity: In the first quarter, eight companies raised $700 million in initial public offerings, according to Renaissance Capital's quarterly review of the U.S. stock market. Those numbers are dismal in comparison to the previous quarter, when 32 companies raised $6.8 billion. It's a low the market hasn't seen since the 2008 financial crisis, according to the report.

CALIFORNIA DREAMING -- California Assembly passes historic minimum wage hike: A first-in-the-nation plan to gradually boost California's minimum wage to $15 an hour over the next six years won the Legislature's approval today after rancorous floor debates on whether the move would strengthen or harm families and the economy. Minimum wage hike will cost taxpayers $3.6B a year: The University of California, Berkeley, Center for Labor Research and Education projected the ripple effect of a $15 minimum wage on higher earners could raise pay for 5.6 million Californians by an average of 24 percent.

TESLA – the company that has never made a profit introduced this past week Tesla Model 3: Reserve now, drive later. North American reservations for Tesla Model 3 - the $35,000 electric sedan for the broad market – began Friday at Tesla stores. The Model 3 is expected to carry a $35,000 sticker price, not including federal and state incentives. CEO Elon Musk unveils the prototype in Los Angeles. Online reservations open April 1.

POLITICS 101 - June primary: California buckles up: Brace yourselves, Californians. The violent, vicious and volatile Republican political campaigns that have destroyed civility across parts of the South and Midwest are increasingly likely to cross the Sierra and spread vitriol in the Golden State.

TRUMP BRANDING: "incompetent Hillary" -- Trump appears to be adding a new line to his collection of signature insults, a list that includes 'low-energy Jeb Bush,' 'lyin' Ted Cruz' and 'Little Marco Rubio.' I think people will see I'm much more competent than she is,' Trump says,  'Incompetent Hillary doesn't know what she's talking about' ... [On his Twitter feed:] 'Incompetent Hillary, despite the horrible attack in Brussels today, wants borders to be weak and open-and let the Muslims flow in. No way!

Days until the Wisconsin primary: 1.

Days until the 2016 election: 218.

QUOTE OF THE WEEKEND - Maureen Dowd, "Trump Does It His Way": "You could hear how hard it was for Donald Trump to say the words. 'Yeah, it was a mistake,' he said ... 'If I had to do it again, I wouldn't have sent it.' I was telling him he lost my sister's vote when he retweeted a seriously unflattering photo of the pretty Heidi Cruz next to a glam shot of his wife, Melania. ...

"Given his draconian comment, sending women back to back alleys, I had to ask: When he was a swinging bachelor in Manhattan, was he ever involved with anyone who had an abortion? 'Such an interesting question,' he said. 'So what's your next question?' ... I pressed, how he could possibly win with 73 percent of women in this country turned off by him? He chose another poll, murmuring, 'It was 68 percent, actually."

STUFF TRUMP SAYS -- How Donald Trump sees himself: He considers himself a member of 'the lucky sperm club.' He trusts no one, and places a premium on revenge. ('If you do not get even, you are just a schmuck!') He treats every decision he makes 'like a lover,' sometimes thinking with his head, other times with other parts of his body, because it reminds him to 'keep in touch with my basic impulses.' And to make creative choices, he writes: 'I try to step back and remember my first shallow reaction. The day I realized it can be smart to be shallow was, for me, a deep experience.

JUST THE FACTS MA’AM - California crime on the rise: In California's 68 largest cities, violent crime jumped 11 percent in the first six months of 2015 compared to the same period in 2014. Among major U.S. cities, three California cities saw the largest increase in property crime in the country.

BIRTHDAYS THIS WEEK – Birthday wishes and thoughts this week to: C-SPAN (37); Doris Day (93) Carmel, CA; Gordie Howe (88) Dallas, TX; Jerry Lewis (90) Bel Aire, CA; Lara Logan (45) New York, NY;  Mike Love (75) Del Mar, CA; Reba McEntire (61) Houston, TX; Gene Shalit (90) Huntington, NY.

COLLEGE CHRONICLES – FILLING IN FEDERAL GRAD RATE GAPS: More than half of bachelor's degree holders attended more than one college - meaning they're not counted as completers in the federal graduation rate. But a new National Student Clearinghouse report [http://bit.ly/25nn8u6 ] for the first time breaks down by sector the progress and outcomes of all students in the fall 2009 cohort, not just first-time full-time ones. The presentation of the data is modeled after the Student Achievement Measure, a 600-institution initiative promoting better and more complete outcomes information; it shows what percentage of students dropped out, transferred and graduated, transferred and are still enrolled and so on.

- "Until now, there has been no way for institutions to measure themselves against their peers beyond the incomplete and misleading federal graduation rate," said Christine Keller, vice president of research and policy analysis at the Association of Public and Land-grant Universities. "As Congress looks to reauthorize the Higher Education Act, it should lift the ban on a national student-level data collection system so that the transparency of SAM is extended universally across higher education."

APPLE AT FORTY - At 40 years old, Apple is shooting for immortality: Apple, as it turns 40 on April 1, deserves more than its share of cake. It's earned all 40 candles. In corporate America, 40 has got to be the new 80. Companies don't live as long as they used to. Getting big does not guarantee there will be a future. In fact, as we have seen with many firms, the opposite is true. Success is more short-lived than ever. So how has Apple led the tech pack for so long?

FINAL FOUR LOOK AHEAD - North Carolina looks for 6th NCAA title against Villanova: North Carolina will look for its sixth NCAA championship when the Tar Heels meet the Villanova Wildcats, trying for their second, on Monday night. The Tar Heels (33-6) last won it all in 2009 and Villanova's only title came in 1985. Both teams advanced to the championship game with lopsided wins, but Villanova's was far more of a blowout than North Carolina's.

COLLEGE HOCKEY GAME OF THE WEEK – The Frozen Four: Thursday 4/7: #6 Boston College Eagles (28-7-5) vs #1 Quinnipiac Bobcats (31-3-7). Bobcats win 5 – 3. #7 Denver Pioneers (25-9-6) vs #3 North Dakota Fighting Hawks (32-6-4), North Dakota wins 6 – 2.

Final – Saturday 4/9: Quinnipiac 4 North Dakota 3.  Season to date (9-7).

THE SWAMI’S WEEK TOP PICKS –

Major League Baseball Preseason Picks:

American League: East – Toronto Blue Jays, Central – Kansas City Royals, West – Texas Rangers, Wild Card – Houston Astros, Detroit Tigers. Champs – Texas Rangers

National League: East – New York Mets, Central –Chicago Cubs, West – San Francisco Giants, Wild Card – Pittsburgh Pirates, Arizona Diamondbacks. Champs – New York Mets

World Series Champs – New York Mets

No Chance in Hell – Oakland Athletics, Colorado Rockies, Cincinnati Reds, Milwaukee, Brewers, Philadelphia Phillies, Atlanta Braves, San Diego Padres.

Season to date (30 -17)

SPORTS $$$ -- MLB average salary $4.4M after 4.4 pct rise: The Los Angeles Dodgers topped spending for the third straight season. The Chicago Cubs boosted payroll by $51 million, adding Jason Heyward, John Lackey and Ben Zobrist in an effort to win their first title since 1908. After beating the Cubs in the NL Championship Series and losing to Kansas City in the World Series, the New York Mets hiked spending by nearly $38 million. ... The New York Yankees, No. 1 for 15 straight years before the Dodgers' payroll surge, are second at $225 million followed by Detroit ($196 million), Boston ($190 million) and San Francisco ($173 million). The average for the 864 players on opening-day rosters, the disabled list and the restricted list was $4,381,980.

MARKET WEEK - The Dow closed out the first three months of the year in the green, after the worst start ever to a year. The Dow's quarterly comeback was its biggest reversal since 1933.U.S. oil prices were on the decline this morning, hitting their lowest levels in more than two weeks, on renewed worries of global oversupply. But crude was on track to post a strong quarterly gain.

With all the stock and oil volatility this year, gold has been the beneficiary, with prices heading for their best quarter in close to 30 years. The precious metal was modestly higher this morning.

The dollar index, against a basket of major currencies, which has jumped sharply over the past two years, was poised for a sizable first-quarter decline. The dollar was also under pressure this morning.

The U.S. stock market has taken off, but it has left behind an important passenger: the IPO (see above IPO NO GO). Major stock indexes have gained about 13 percent in the past seven weeks and are now in positive territory after a swoon early in the year. The market for initial public offerings, however, is in its slowest period since the first quarter of 2009 ... Analysts and traders warn that the second quarter may not bring much relief.

The sharp divergence is puzzling investors, who figure the two should move in the same direction. They said if the pace of IPOs doesn't accelerate, it could be a warning sign for the rally, a signal that investors haven't fully regained their appetite for risk. ... Meanwhile, the market environment could portend more pain for investors in private technology companies who have bought in at valuations that likely can't be reached in the public markets in the near term.

DRIVING THE WEEK - President Obama this morning meets with NATO Secretary-General Stoltenberg ... Minnesota Fed President Neel Kashkari holds a highly anticipated symposium on ending TBTF (more on which below) ... Senate Banking has hearing at 10:00 a.m. Tuesday on consumer finance regulation ... Voters hit the polls in Wisconsin on Tuesday with Donald Trump set up for a possibly big loss to Ted Cruz ... Ex-Im Bank has a meeting at 7:30 a.m. on Thursday ... Senate Banking has a CFPB hearing on Thursday at 10:00 a.m. ... ISM non-manufacturing at 10:00 a.m. Tuesday expected to rise to 54.1 from 53.4.

Next week: Jack Ass and the Words of the Month.

Until Next Monday, Adios.

Claremont, CA

April 4, 2016

#VI-36-298

CARTOON OF THE WEEK –Rob Rogers, Pittsburgh Post-Gazette

Bullying

I am sure everyone at one time or another has been bullied. It has been and will always be a problem in any society or culture. But this year bullying is playing a central theme in our Presidential campaign.

Lauren Underwood writes below about her experience at a Trump rally before the Michigan primary last week.

Lauren Underwood, Garden City, Michigan - Okay, so I'm going to go ahead and share my experience at Donald Trump's rally in Warren, MI today. We'll start with why I went. I am a firm believer in being educated on ALL candidates, not just the one you're rooting for, so Stephanie and I decided to attend. If you know me, it's no surprise that I am not a fan of Trump due to his racist, misogynist, and popularity-searching "campaign". But I try to keep an open mind, understanding that people have different views and everyone is entitled to their own. I wore a shirt bashing Trump, and Stephanie wore a pro-Bernie Sanders baseball hat. We had no intentions of causing a scene, starting any fights, or even speaking negatively towards any Trump-supporters. We stood in the crowd with everyone else, even made small talk with a few different people, asking back and forth about each other's views. A women supporting Trump even complimented our hat and shirt.

This is not a post to bash all Trump-supporters. Most of the people we spoke to were very kind to us, as we were to them. Trump came out and started his speech. As hard as it was, we ignored the screams and chants of building walls and exporting citizens. We stood quietly and listened to the man speak. Every 15 or so minutes, a scene would happen where the crowd would yell about protestors and Trump would scream, "Get them out, send them out of here!" and the crowd would scream "USA, USA, USA" until the attendees who were asked to leave were escorted out. So, about 45 minutes to an hour into his speech, a group of teenage boys (who had been harassing us the entire time while we ignored their comments) screamed and pointed at us, yelling for us to be kicked out. At first we laughed it off, of course we couldn't be kicked out, we were just standing here silently. Wrong. A secret service member and a police officer were there within the minute, grabbed Stephanie and I by our arms, and started to lead us out. One of the Trump supporters we were chatting with even stood up for us, explaining that we weren't doing anything and weren't being disruptive. By now the crowd was chanting their USA run and a large portion was also booing us out. The walk through the crowd was very upsetting, being screamed at and filmed, even one man said "Go to China if you like communism so much!"

(Communism?? Don't you mean democratic socialism??). But also, along the walk out, some attendees would high five us or shake our hands, and thank us for coming and supporting Bernie. It felt weird to be thanked, due to us not doing anything besides standing quietly. As the two men walked us out, one explained that if we returned we would be arrested. Stephanie quickly asked why that was. The man replied with "They don't want you here," to which she said "Isn't it a constitutional right to silently protest?" The officer replied "Not here." The rude remarks and yells didn't stop at the door, for Trump-supporters who didn't get in greeted us with just as much hatred. The walk back to my truck even included a man yelling from his car about how this was for Trump people and that we didn't belong here and shouldn't have come. This kind of hatred is what is ruining this country. To think that my right to protest was taken from me AT A RALLY, scares the hell out of me for if Trump actually became president and got that power. What else would he take away from us if he can't even stand two teenage girls standing silently at a FREE, PUBLIC, OPEN-TO-EVERYONE event? If you're thinking of voting Trump this year, please rethink your stance.

This much hate belongs nowhere near the presidency.

THE TRUMP INFOMERCIAL - Say what you will about the GOP front-runner, his press conferences are remarkable performance art. Tuesday night's was perhaps the most amazing yet. In an upbeat victory speech that was part press conference, part product-placement bonanza - and equal parts political circus - the Republican presidential front-runner managed to plug Trump Steaks, Trump Magazine and Trump Water.

Donald Trump touted his golf courses, his wineries and his business school. Watching the spectacle was his newest supporter, former New York Yankees outfielder Paul O'Neill - who got an extended on-air shout out from the billionaire. 'I don't think I've seen such a stream of disconnected ideas since I quit psychiatry 30 years ago,' said conservative columnist Charles Krauthammer on Fox News.

TRUMP's TALL TALES – “Trump's Week of Errors, Exaggerations and Flat-out Falsehoods: POLITICO Magazine subjected the GOP frontrunner to our fact-checking process: The result: more than five dozen statements deemed mischaracterizations, exaggerations, or simply false ... It equates to roughly one misstatement every five minutes."

BIRTHDAYS THIS WEEK – Birthday wishes and thoughts this week to: Alex Ball …famous campaign advisor to Josh Gottheimer for Congress NJ 5^th;  Michael Caine (82) London, England; Jon Hamm (45) Woodland Hills, CA; Carrie Underwood (33) Memphis, TN; Bruce Willis (60) Bel Air, CA; Bow Wow (29) Brooklyn, NY.

COLLEGE CHRONICLES – College endowments are seeing losses. A dozen funds that responded to requests from Bloomberg for their returns for the first six months of fiscal 2016 showed an average loss of 3.8 percent. Indiana University’s $2.3 billion endowment had the biggest loss at 6.1 percent through Dec. 31. Pennsylvania State University’s $3.7 billion fund had the smallest decline at 1.8 percent. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index lost 1.6 percent in that time.

The interim results from schools, nearly all with assets of at least $1 billion, provide a snapshot of performance at endowments, which are typically heavily invested in equities, hedge funds and private equity. While global equities have rallied recently, endowments may be unable to make up for lost ground when the fiscal year ends June 30. Investment returns contribute to a school’s annual operating budget.

The six-month losses come after lackluster 2.4 percent returns on average for fiscal 2015, the worst since a 0.3 percent decline three years prior, according to the National Association of College and University Business Officers and investment manager Commonfund. While endowments invest for the long term, the schools set a formula -- often an average of the previous three or five years of returns -- for annual spending rates to fund academic operations.

Schools typically spend about 4 percent to 5 percent, which means they need annual returns to be higher to avoid cutting into principal. The chief investment officers of some of the wealthiest endowments, including those at Harvard and the University of Notre Dame, said last week at an investing conference that the current environment will be challenging for returns.

For decades, endowments typically followed a portfolio model in which the majority of assets were invested in equities. Asset allocations, which still include stocks, have expanded to include hedge funds, private equity, emerging markets and commodities, making the funds more susceptible to swings in the price of oil or the pace of China’s economic recovery.

2015: WEAKEST EARNINGS YEAR SINCE THE CRISIS – 2015 results reported saw S&P earnings per share fall by 12.7 percent, according to S&P Dow Jones Indices. That is the sharpest decline since the financial crisis year of 2008. Plus, the reported earnings were 25 percent lower than the pro forma figures - the widest difference since 2008 when companies took a record amount of charges.

THE RETIREMENT CRISIS: STILL HAPPENING - News flash: Americans still aren't saving enough money for retirement. ... . While slightly less than two-thirds of white families have managed to put something away for their post-work lives, only 41 percent of black families and barely one-quarter of Latino families can say the same.

VALUABLE JUNK - The riskiest part of the U.S. corporate-bond market is staging a comeback, marking an upswing in investor confidence following a turbulent start to the year. Returns on junk bonds turned positive for 2016 this month, reversing a sharp selloff at the beginning of the year. The surge is one of the most convincing signs that the recession fears that rattled markets earlier this year have faded. While analysts continue to scrutinize stock valuations amid soft global-growth expectations and slumping U.S. corporate earnings, many portfolio managers say stocks and junk bonds look relatively attractive at a time when yields on safe assets such as government bonds are in many cases near record lows and falling. U.S. stocks tiptoed to their longest rally since October last week as a rise in oil prices lifted energy shares.

OUT AND ABOUT – Last Saturday’s Detroit Red Wings win over the New York Rangers at The Joe, saw this distinguished group of Detroit Country Day alumni celebrating Terry Tangkas’ birthday.

From left to right: Randy Field ’72, Mike Page ’71, Terry Zangkas ’72. Dan Kanaan ‘72.

2017 WINTER CLASSIC – The Detroit Red Wings are heading back outdoors to play the Toronto Maple Leafs. The NHL made it official last week with the announcement the two teams will play Sunday, Jan. 1, 2017, in the first NHL Centennial Classic at Toronto’s BMO Field where Major League Soccer's Toronto FC and Canadian Football League's Argonauts play. The game will be a rematch of the 2014 Winter Classic that set a record crowd of 105,491 at Michigan Stadium in Ann Arbor. The Maple Leafs won the game, 3-2, in a shootout.

The 2017 game will be part of a yearlong Centennial celebration that will feature a variety of special events highlighting the 100th year of the NHL.

MARCH MADNESS! - UVA, UNC, Kansas and Oregon are the #1 seeds. Full bracket: http://es.pn/1V5PxA6

BRACKETOLOGY 101 – We like a Final Four of Kansas, Oklahoma, Providence, and Michigan State in this year’s March Madness NCAA Basketball Tournament.

COLLEGE HOCKEY GAME OF THE WEEK – Friday 3/18, 7:30 CT, HGTV; #6 University of Denver Pioneers (23-8-5) vs. #5 St. Cloud State Huskies (29-8-1), the NCHC tournament semi-final, Huskies in a wild one 6 – 5.  Season to date (8-7).

THE SWAMI’S WEEK TOP PICKS –

(SCIAC, Mar. 15) Baseball; Ithaca College Bombers (2-3) at Claremont-Mudd Republicans (4-12), the annual spring break visit of Coach George Valesente’s South Hill club, Ithaca wins 8 – 4.

(ECAC, Mar. 18) #18 St. Lawrence University Saints (19-13-4) vs. #12 Harvard University Crimson (18-9-4), ECAC semifinal, Saints win in OT 4 – 3.

 (NHL, Mar. 19) Boston Bruins (39-23-8) at Los Angeles Kings (40-22-5), two teams heading towards Lord Stanley’s tournament, LA wins 3 – 2.

(NBA, Mar. 19) Golden State Warriors (59-6) at San Antonio Spurs (56-10), forget about the NCAA tourney tonight, this is HUGE: Warriors win in OT 106 – 104.

Season to date (26 -17)

MARKET WEEK - There were no government economic reports due out today, but Wall Street get a flood of key inflation numbers tomorrow and Wednesday ahead of the Fed's interest rate decision. The producer price index is out tomorrow and the consumer price index is out Wednesday.

DRIVING THE WEEK - Fed announcement and Yellen presser on Wednesday with no rate hike expected. Markets will look for any dot-plot changes and hints about when the next hike might come ... Tuesday's primaries will either put Trump on a glide path to the nomination or make a contested convention a serious possibility ... Senate Banking has a nominations hearing Tuesday at 10:00 a.m. ... FDIC meets Tuesday at 10:00 a.m. ... U.S. Chamber hosts its capital markets summit Wednesday at 8:00 a.m. ... ABA holds its government relations summit Wednesday at 8:30 a.m. ... House Financial Services holds a CFPB hearing Wednesday at 10:00 a.m. ... Retail sales Tuesday at 8:30 a.m. expected to drop 0.1 percent headline and 0.2 percent ex-autos ...

Tuesday's primaries could decide whether Donald Trump can lock up the GOP nomination before the July convention or if chaos in Cleveland lies ahead. Should Trump take both Florida (99 delegates) and Ohio (66), there is probably no stopping him. But while the marketing executive leads by significant margins in most Florida polls, he trails home state governor John Kasich in Ohio. GOP 2012 nominee Mitt Romney will campaign in Ohio with Kasich on Monday as the "stop Trump" effort enters what could be its final days ...

If Trump splits the two big states, establishment dreams of keeping him from the 1,237 delegates he needs will remain viable. If he somehow loses both, Trump could be in real trouble. The other big prizes up for grabs Tuesday include Missouri, Illinois and North Carolina. Trump could take them all but Kasich has a shot in Illinois and Ted Cruz has his best chance in Missouri.

Next week: Jack Ass and the Words of the Month.

Until Next Monday, Happy St. Patrick’s Day.

Claremont, CA

March 14, 2016

#VI-35-297

CARTOON OF THE WEEK –Nick Anderson, Hearst Papers

International Women's Day

My wife is the living proof that you can move up without putting someone down, be strong without making someone weak and love without having to hate.

International Women’s Day is a time to reflect on progress made, to call for change and to celebrate acts of courage and determination by ordinary women who have played an extraordinary role in the history of their countries and communities.

The International Women’s Day theme for 2016 is "Planet 50-50 by 2030: Step It Up for Gender Equality.”

THE PRESS -  "DERELICTS OF DOODY: Senate GOP leaders sign letter vowing to defy Constitution and ignore ANY Supreme pick." See the cover. http://nydn.us/vp5qdB

QUOTE OF THE WEEK: "I will never vote for Donald Trump, not even if Ronald Reagan and William F. Buckley rise from the grave and beg me to support him." - Rick Wilson, a GOP consultant who outlined the many, many reason he won't support Trump in an op-ed. http://bit.ly/1QYrKMV

FOR THE LOVE OF LIBRARIES: President Barack Obama's nominee for the 14th Librarian of Congress has an "unparalleled" dedication to learning and education, the president said. He and Carla Hayden (and first lady Michelle Obama) go way back; they all know each other from Hayden's days working at the Chicago Public Library in the early 1990s. Hayden - who would be the first woman and the first African American to hold the position - is now CEO at Baltimore's Enoch Pratt Free Library. "It became that community meeting place, and people were so relieved to have a safe place to be," she said. "I believe in what libraries can be for a civilized society, and a country that is open to all." The former American Library Association president, who would take over amid criticism of the technology policies at the nation's oldest federal cultural institution, must still be confirmed by the Senate.

THE CARDINAL WAY -- One day after announcing a record-setting $400 million donation from Nike founder Phil Knight, comes this from Stanford's Kathleen Sullivan: "The Stanford University Board of Trustees has approved a 3.5 percent increase in undergraduate tuition for the 2016-17 school year...total undergraduate charges will increase to $62,541 next year, including $47,331 for tuition, $14,601 for room and board, and $609 for a mandatory health fee." http://stanford.io/1KOK1zG

JUST DO IT: Nike's founder Phil Knight donates $400 million to Stanford University, via Wall Street Journal: One of the largest philanthropic gifts ever to a learning institution... http://on.wsj.com/1T77xdY

BIRTHDAYS THIS WEEK – Birthday wishes and thoughts this week to: Ron Howard (62) Studio City, CA; Tea Leoni (50) San Marino, CA; Eddie Murray (60) New York, NY; Joanne Woodward (86) Wilton, CT.

COLLEGE CHRONICLES – Engineering Failure:  The most valuable problems may be the unsolvable ones. The engineering school at Northwestern University is using the power of problems without clear solutions to prepare freshmen for the ups and downs of college and careers. Aware that some of its academically successful students arrive on campus without ever having failed at anything, the university requires all new engineering majors to take an unusual course featuring challenges they often can’t meet: working in teams to design and build devices to help individuals with disabilities. Learning to handle failure in small doses equips students for bigger challenges, professors say, building resilience and humility.

"USC tuition to top $50,000 for the first time,'' via LATimes: http://lat.ms/1L79N2g

SUMMERS ON TRUMP - Larry Summers blogs: "While comparisons between Donald Trump and Mussolini or Hitler are overwrought, Trump's rise does illustrate how democratic processes can lose its way and turn dangerously toxic when there is intense economic frustration and widespread apprehension about the future. This is especially the case when some previously respected leaders scurry to make peace in a new order - yes Chris Christie, I mean you. ...

"The possible election of Donald Trump as President is the greatest present threat to the prosperity and security of the United States. I have had a strong point of view on each of the last ten presidential elections, but never before had I feared that what I regarded as the wrong outcome would in the long sweep of history risk grave damage to the American project."

MIKE BARNICLE in Daily Beast, "The Two Americas Behind Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders": "The sadness within the American promise is that in places where voices are not heard, where dreams are now nearly dead, where a generation of hard work and solid wages have been hollowed out or stolen as the establishment sat on its hands unwilling to fight an economic system geared to satisfying shareholders before addressing the real needs of families that once thought they were on a level playing field, the future is now filled with dread instead of a dream.”

WALL STREET'S NEXT BIG SHORT: TRUMP? - Add the juggernaut that is Donald J. Trump to the list of what-ifs that is worrying Wall Street. A growing realization that the unpredictable New York real estate developer is in a position to win the Republican nomination and then battle Hillary Clinton for the White House in November's election has caused some investors to sell U.S. stocks. They fear having such a wild-card president could trigger trade wars, hurt the economy and add a lot of market volatility.

“As the market rarely feasts on lack of predictability - Trump represents a nightmare for investors this year,' said hedge fund manager Douglas Kass of Seabreeze Partners Management Inc, who said last week that he was adding to his existing short bet on the U.S. stock market in part because of Trump's increasingly strong position in the race. Trump's statements on business and Wall Street don't neatly fit into one ideological worldview, but if anything, they are seen as isolationist in a globally connected world".

Last Week Tonight with John Oliver on Donald Trump: https://youtu.be/DnpO_RTSNmQ

COPY THAT - Xerox Corp. will split itself in two and give several board seats to activist investor Carl Icahn, reversing an effort by the century-old company to marry business services with its copiers and printers. Xerox will divide into two publicly traded companies: one containing its office machines and another housing its services operations ... The company made the announcement last week when it is forecast to report a fourth straight year of declining profits and sales.

The split unravels Xerox's biggest ever acquisition, the 2010 purchase of Affiliated Computer Services Inc. for about $6 billion, which pushed Xerox deeper into providing bill processing, managing call centers and other back-office services to government agencies and corporations. The split would follow a similar move by rival Hewlett-Packard Co. last fall. ... Mr. Icahn in November disclosed a stake in Xerox and said he would seek talks with the company about its future. With an 8.1 percent stake in the company, Mr. Icahn's hedge fund is now the second-largest shareholder after Vanguard.

COLLEGE HOCKEY GAME OF THE WEEK – Saturday 3/12, 7:00 p.m. ET: ECAC Quarterfinals, Clarkson College Golden Knights (20-13-3) at #18 St. Lawrence University Saints (17-13-4). Two old, old rivals battle for a ticket to Lake Placid. Saints in a tight one 4-3.  Season to date (7-7).

THE SWAMI’S WEEK TOP PICKS –

(SCIAC, Mar. 12) Baseball; University of Redlands Bulldogs (10-5) vs. California Lutheran Kingsmen (7-4), two top four teams in conference, Cal Lu 7 – 4.

(NHL, Mar. 12) New York Rangers (39-22-6) at Detroit Red Wings (32-23-11), The Wings suddenly are fighting for their playoff lives, they win 3 – 2.

(NBA, Mar. 12) Oklahoma City Thunder (43-20) at San Antonio Spurs (54-10), Spurs breeze, 104 – 85.

Season to date (23 -16)

REMEMBERING Nancy Davis Reagan ... LOU CANNON, who was written five books about Ronald Reagan and covered his presidency as senior White House correspondent for The Washington Post, is the eye-popping byline on the N.Y. Times obit of Nancy Reagan, "Fierce Protector and Influential Force as First Lady: Champion in the Struggles Against Drug Abuse and Alzheimer's Disease" (one-third of front page, plus 1.5 pages inside): "'Without Nancy, there would have been no Governor Reagan, no President Reagan,' said Michael K. Deaver, a longtime aide and close friend of the Reagans who died in 2007.

Next week: Bullying and the Words of the Month.

Until Next Monday, Adios.

Claremont, CA

March 8, 2016

#VI-34-296

CARTOON OF THE WEEK – “Hooray for Women”