Garage Sales as Economic Indicators

Forget GDP, forget Consumer Confidence rankings, and forget S & P 500 index, the best indicator for the economy is the number of garage/yard sales you see on a given weekend. As I drove down Bonita Avenue this Saturday, what I saw is a poor  indicator for future economic growth. Many garage and yard sales, with the usual books, old clothing, kitchen utensils and furniture, but many selling current CD’s, DVD’s, and even Easter gifts. Forget what POTUS says, all is not well.

The City of La Verne is your typical small town in America; good caring people, who go to church, pay their taxes and cheer for their local sport teams. But like all small towns they suffer from overpaid public and private bureaucrats whose main economic solution is to move money from one fund to another. Instead of finding efficient forms of management, revenue (taxes) are raised or jobs are sacrificed to bail out these inefficiencies. Cash strapped citizens, have their own financial inefficiencies as well; $100 plus monthly cell bills, HDTVs in every room of the house, underwater mortgages, and student loans up to their eye balls.  Citizens, like corporate and public institutions, are finding different ways to make ends meet.

The same in Claremont, a more upscale town but still garage/yard sales galore. The only difference in Claremont, you have to wear socks to these sales or you will be turned away, should you live east of Claremont (i.e. Upland or Montclair) and try to attend these sales alarms go off and you are politely asked to take your business elsewhere.

Where ever you live, watching Joe, Andrew and Becky every morning on Squawk Box is no way to gauge economic conditions. Count how many garage/yard sales on a given weekend, they even take credit cards.

THE ECONOMIST cover, "Over-regulated America," with image of Uncle Sam eyeing a monstrous pile of paper and holding a blowtorch: "The home of laissez-faire is being suffocated by excessive and badly written regulation ... Consider the Dodd-Frank law of 2010. Its aim was noble: to prevent another financial crisis. ... But Dodd-Frank is far too complex, and becoming more so. At 848 pages, it is 23 times longer than Glass-Steagall, the reform that followed the Wall Street crash of 1929. Worse, every other page demands that regulators fill in further detail. Some of these clarifications are hundreds of pages long."

THE BIG PICTURE - Global marts up in '12-- "Major World Stock Markets, percentage change year to date," Investor's Business Daily: S&P 500 +8.6% ... Nasdaq +13.8% ... Canada +8.6% ... Mexico +11% ... Brazil +20.8% ... UK +9.3% ... France +14.2% ... Germany +20.6% ... South Africa +13.6% .. Russia +24.3 ... China Small Cap +23.1 ... China Big Cap +15.3 ... Hong Kong +16.5% ... Taiwan +13.9% ... South Korea +13.4% ... Japan +10.5% ... India +30% ... Australia +10.8%. (Returns based on benchmark exchange-traded funds.)

IMPROVING ECONOMY SHIFTS PLAYING FIELD - Barring a major unforeseen crisis knocking the economy off track, President Obama now appears likely to be running for re-election against a weakened GOP candidate in a strengthening economy with people feeling increasingly positive about their circumstances. That storyline has been taking shape for weeks and is confirmed by results from the latest POLITICO-George Washington University Battleground Poll of 1,000 likely voters ...

President Obama's job approval rating is up nine percent since November at 53%; Obama now leads Romney by 10 points (53-43); Matched against Santorum, Obama leads by 11 points (53-42); Against a generic Republican untarnished by attacks, Obama leads by 5%; in November, he was tied; Twice the number of Americans (35%) believe the country is on the right track than they did in November (18%). Wrong track numbers have fallen from 75% to 59% since November. ... These numbers remain poor but the trend is very positive for the White House.

CHINESE REFORMS - China could face an economic crisis unless it implements deep reforms, according to a report by the World Bank and a Chinese government think tank, which urges Beijing to scale back its vast state-owned enterprises and make them operate more like commercial firms. The recommendation is contained in "China 2030," a report set to be released today, according to a half-dozen individuals involved in preparing and reviewing it.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204778604577238901231511224.html?mod=djemalertNEWS

LAST DEBATE FOR A MONTH - Hard to believe this past week was probably the last GOP debate for a while. It's not as sad as the end of the Downton Abbey season. But it's a close second.

MAUREEN DOWD, "Ghastly Outdated Party: The Republicans in retrograde, partying like it's 1959": "IT'S finally sinking in. Republicans are getting queasy at the gruesome sight of their party eating itself alive, savaging the brand in ways that will long resonate. 'Republicans being against sex is not good,' the G.O.P. strategist Alex Castellanos told me mournfully. 'Sex is popular.' He said his party is 'coming to grips with a weaker field than we'd all want' and going through the five stages of grief. 'We're at No. 4,' he said. (Depression.) 'We've still got one to go.' (Acceptance.)"

THE PRESIDENT'S WEEK AHEAD: "On Monday, the President and the Vice President will host a meeting with the National Governors Association in the State Dining Room. The First Lady and Dr. Biden will also deliver remarks. On Tuesday, the President will deliver remarks at the United Auto Workers conference in Washington, DC. On Wednesday, the President and First Lady will host a dinner at the White House to honor our Armed Forces who served in Operation Iraqi Freedom and Operation New Dawn and to honor their families. ... On Thursday, the President will travel to Nashua, New Hampshire, and deliver remarks on the economy. In the evening, the President will attend campaign events in New York City. On Friday, the President will travel to the Walter Reed National Military Medical Center in Bethesda, Maryland, to visit with wounded service members."

BIRTHDAYS THIS WEEK – Birthday wishes and thoughts this week to: Mario Andretti (72), Harry Belafonte (85), Ron Howard (58), Jon Bon Jovi (50), Catherine O’Hara (58), Ben Roethlisberger (30), Maria Suffredini ….an Angel, Joanne Woodward (82).

COLLEGE HOCKEY PICK OF THE WEEK – Saturday 3/3, 4:00 PM ET, NESN – University of New Hampshire Wildcats (14-16-3) visit #10 ranked University of Maine Black Bears (19-11-3). This final weekend of the Hockey East regular season has this old rivalry rematch in Orono. Maine is headed for a match up with Boston College in the playoffs, but they first must take care of UNH and they do. Season to date (3-6).

THE SWAMI’S TOP PICKS – Maine 5 UNH 3 (men’s hockey), St. Lawrence 3 Harvard 2 (women’s ECAC playoff semifinal), Arizona 70 Arizona State 58 (men’s hoops).  Season to date (12-10).

NHL POWER RANKINGS – through ¾ point of season: (1). Vancouver Canucks, (2). Detroit Red Wings, (3). New York Rangers, (4). St. Louis Blues, (5). Boston Bruins.

RINK RATS FACTS: Women speak about 7,000 words a day while men average 2,000. For the first time, more than 30 percent of adults in this country have at least a bachelor's degree.

WORDS OF THE MONTH:

persnickety \per-SNIK-i-tee\, adjective:

1.     Overparticular; fussy.

2    Snobbish or having the aloof attitude of a snob.

3.     Requiring painstaking care

“The point here is to make your neighbor understand that his neighbor in Claremont is exceptionally persnickety about territory.”

ganas, noun
to feel like doing

When you want to talk about what you feel like doing, or don’t feel like doing, tener ganas de followed by the infinitive is the phrase you need:

“Tengo ganas de ir al cine.”
I feel like going to the movies.

DRIVING THE WEEK - Germany votes on Greek bailout package today ... Romney seems likely to win narrowly in Michigan and by a wider margin in Arizona on Tuesday. But Rick Santorum, Newt Gingrich and Ron Paul will fight on at least through Super Tuesday on March 6th and probably beyond ... Top economic data include S&P/Case-Shiller home price index out Tuesday expected to show declines slowing to 0.4 percent from 0.7 percent ... Senate Banking has a housing market hearing Tuesday at 10:00 a.m. ... Second read on Q4 GDP out Wednesday not expected to change from 2.8 percent (though some say it will bump up to 3.0) ... Fed Chair Ben Bernanke is on the Hill on Wednesday where he gives semi-annual monetary policy testimony to House Financial Services at 10:00 a.m. ... President Obama travels to Nashua, New Hampshire on Thursday and will deliver remarks on the economy followed by evening fund-raisers in NYC

Next week, March Madness and Dear Rink Rats.

Until Next Monday, Adios.

Claremont, CA

February 27, 2012

#II-44, 97

February 20, 1962

50 years ago today two important events occurred that influenced the world from this point forward.

John Glenn became the fifth person in space, the third American in space and the first American to orbit the Earth, aboard Friendship 7 on February 20, 1962, on the Mercury-Atlas 6 mission, circling the globe three times during a flight lasting 4 hours, 55 minutes, and 23 seconds. Up until this point in space flight history the Russians had dominated the exploration of outer space, first with Sputnik and then with man/woman flight. But with John Glenn and NASA’s first great adventure America would slowly regain the advantage in the “space race” and provide real heroes to America.

Second, 50 years ago this week perhaps the greatest movie of all time was released, “To Kill a Mockingbird”. A novel by Harper Lee published in 1960. The movie, like the novel, was instantly successful, the book won a Pulitzer Prize, and has become a classic of modern American literature. The plot and characters are loosely based on the author's observations of her family and neighbors, as well as on an event that occurred near her hometown in 1936, when she was 10 years old. The movie starring Gregory Peck won numerous Academy Awards, including Best Picture.

The novel is renowned for its warmth and humor, despite dealing with the serious issues of rape and racial inequality. The narrator's father, Atticus Finch, has served as a moral hero for many readers and as a model of integrity for lawyers. One critic explains the novel's impact by writing, "In the twentieth century, To Kill a Mockingbird is probably the most widely read book dealing with race in America, and its protagonist, Atticus Finch, the most enduring fictional image of racial heroism. Atticus Finch, a lawyer in the Depression-era South, defends a black man against an undeserved rape charge, and his kids against prejudice. To Kill a Mockingbird is a rare treasure, where the film is good as or even better than the novel; a novel that changed America’s thinking of race relations in the 1960’s.

ROMNEY op-ed in The Detroit News, "Taxpayers should get GM shares' proceeds": "Instead of doing the right thing and standing up to union bosses, Obama rewarded them. A labor union that had contributed millions to Democrats and his election campaign was granted an ownership share of Chrysler and a major stake in GM, two flagships of the industry. The U.S. Department of Treasury - American taxpayers - was asked to become a majority stockholder of GM. ... While a lot of workers and investors got the short end of the stick, Obama's union allies - and his major campaign contributors - reaped reward upon reward, all on the taxpayer's dime. ... American taxpayers have been left on the hook for billions to benefit unions and the union bosses who contributed millions to Barack Obama's election campaign. Such a state of affairs is intolerable, and as president I would not tolerate it. The Obama administration needs to act now to divest itself of its ownership position in GM. The shares need to be sold in a responsible fashion and the proceeds turned over to the nation's taxpayers."

WILL 2012 LOOK LIKE 2011 ALL OVER AGAIN? - Remember, 2011 began with high hopes that got dashed after the Japanese earthquake and tsunami and the U.S. debt downgrade. Should something similar play out, the current narrative tilting the electoral playing field slightly back in President Obama's direction would be reversed. ... The consensus view: This time should be different, barring unforeseen disaster (and maybe $4 gas?). Immelt and others noted that while Congress may not wind up being any more productive, there is no longer any threat of another downgrade or debt ceiling showdown.

And this past week, one major Washington-created obstacle - a possible failure to extend the payroll tax cut - appeared to vanish as Republican leaders capitulated on their demand that a full-year extension be paid for through spending cuts. Europe remains a serious concern but slow bits of progress keep piling up, making a catastrophic meltdown that ripples across the globe less likely. The housing market remains the biggest drag and question mark. But on the panel M.M. moderated, Douglas Holtz-Eakin, former CBO director and chief economic policy advisor to Sen. John McCain's 2008 presidential campaign, said he was convinced prices had bottomed ...

"It's the fourth time I've predicted the bottom of the housing market, but I think I'm right this time," Holtz-Eakin joked. He also praised President Obama's budget request for $8 billion for a program to help community colleges prepare workers with technical skills that companies say they need but can't find among current applicants. Holtz-Eakin noted that McCain proposed a similar program in 2008.

NEW RISK: $4 GAS -  "Gasoline prices could hit $4 a gallon, a threshold they haven't flirted with since last spring. Already in Southern California the $4 barrier has been met. The average price paid by U.S. drivers for a gallon of regular now stands at $3.52 ... That price represents an increase of 0.04 percent from a week ago and 0.38 percent from a year ago. Experts expect prices to spike another 60 cents or more, with the $4 mark being touched-or exceeded-sometime this summer, probably by Memorial Day weekend ... The last time the U.S. saw $4 gasoline was back in the summer of 2008. ... Historically, $4 a gallon has been the upper limit of what consumers have been willing to pay."

RICHEST STATES - FORTUNE infographic on the richest states in the U.S., measured by "rainy day" reserve funds. North Dakota and Wyoming are among the richest states in terms of per capita reserves while Alaska and Texas have the biggest overall reserve funds. http://bit.ly/xUOEQ8

U.S. OUT FOR 2020 SUMMER OLYMPICS - "With international and U.S. Olympic leaders so far unable to resolve a financial dispute that is blocking any U.S. bid for the games [including L.A. for 2020], it might not happen until 2024. ... Denver, Reno-Lake Tahoe, Nev., 2002 host Salt Lake City and Bozeman, Mont., have expressed early interest in bidding for the 2022 Winter Games."

THE BIG PICTURE - "Congress set to pack it in for the year, "Come January, ... taxes [may] rise substantially. Jobless benefits could expire. And defense programs will be on the chopping block ... So what are the chances Congress will deal with these issues ... between now and November? 'Zero,' Sen. Lindsey Graham said. ... It's only February, but it looks like Congress is ready to pretty much pack it in for the year. Or at least until the November elections, when a lame-duck Congress [will meet] ... '60 Minutes' is exploring a piece on the Senate's dysfunction. ... Senate Majority Whip Dick Durbin was asked what else Congress can do this year. He had two words: 'postal reform.'"

COLORADO NEWS ALERT - Denver Post, "Colorado avalanche danger worst in 30 years - inside and outside of ski areas, experts say," by Jason Blevins: "On Friday, the Colorado Avalanche Information Center issued a statewide 'special statement' urging caution as avalanche conditions remain dangerous and skier-triggered avalanches likely. ... Avalanche researchers have to go back about 30 years to find a sketchier snowpack in Colorado. The close calls are abundant ... The six deaths this season match the state's annual average for avalanche fatalities with more than two months left." Cool graphics http://bit.ly/xaYMBm

BIRTHDAYS THIS WEEK – Birthday wishes and thoughts this week to: David Axelrod (57), Drew Barrymore (37), Chelsea Clinton (32), Tricia Nixon Cox (66), Kristin Davis (47), Phil Esposito (70), Steven Hill (90), Joseph Lieberman (70), Edward James Olmos (65), William Peterson (59), Sidney Poitier (85), Bob Schieffer (75), Justin Verlander (29).

MID WINTER RECIPE – Alton Brown’s Enchilada Lasagna, great for those cold winter nights and  of course you need a bottle of Oso Libre Cabernet Quixotic (2007).

Ingredients:

For sauce:

• 2 dried chipotle chiles, stems and seeds removed, diced
• 3 large garlic cloves, minced
• 2 1/2 teaspoons chili powder
• 1 1/2 teaspoons toasted cumin seeds, freshly ground
• 2 cups chicken broth
• 3 cups tomato sauce
• 1/2 teaspoon kosher salt
• 1/4 teaspoon freshly ground black pepper
•  

For filling:

• 1 tablespoon vegetable oil
• 1 pound boneless, skinless chicken breasts or thighs, cubed
• 1 1/2 cups diced onion
• Pinch kosher salt
• 1 large clove garlic, minced
• 1 teaspoon dried oregano
•  
• 12 (6-inch) corn tortillas
• 3 cups shredded queso fresco or Monterey Jack
•  
• Nonstick cooking spray

Directions

Combine the chiles, garlic, chili powder, cumin, chicken broth, tomato sauce, salt and pepper in a medium saucepan over high heat. Bring to a boil. Reduce the heat to low and simmer for 15 minutes or until the chiles are soft. Set aside until ready to use.

Preheat the oven to 350 degrees F.


Heat the vegetable oil in a medium skillet over medium-high heat. Saute the chicken until cooked through, approximately 7 to 9 minutes. Remove the chicken from the pan and place in a medium bowl. Add the onions to the same pan along with a generous pinch of salt, decrease the heat to medium-low and sweat for 4 to 6 minutes. Add the garlic and oregano and cook until the onions are tender, 2 to 3 minutes more. Add the chicken back to the pan and remove from the heat.


Spray a 13 by 9-inch glass baking dish with non-stick spray. Place 1/2 cup of the sauce into the bottom of the dish. Dip 4 tortillas into the remaining sauce and lay them into the bottom of the dish. Cut 1 of the tortillas in half to evenly cover the bottom of the dish. Top this with half of the chicken mixture and 1 cup of the cheese. Starting with 4 more tortillas, repeat the layers, ending with the last 4 tortillas on top. Pour remaining sauce over the dish and top with remaining 1 cup of cheese.


Cover with aluminum foil and bake in the oven on the middle rack for 30 minutes. Remove the foil and bake an additional 10 minutes, or until cheese on top is bubbly.

COLLEGE HOCKEY PICK OF THE WEEK – Saturday 2/25, 7:00 PM ET, Comcast. The #1 ranked Ferris State Bulldogs (22-8-4) entertain #18 ranked Western Michigan Broncos (16-13-5) in Big Rapids, Michigan. Yes hockey fans, #1 ranked in the nation Ferris State, quite an achievement for the men from Michigan. We pick Ferris State to win this one on the second to last week of the regular season. Season to date (3-5).

THE SWAMI’S TOP PICKS – St. Lawrence 4 Dartmouth 3 (women’s hockey), Ferris State 6 Western Michigan 3 (men’s hockey), La Verne 8 Occidental 3 (men’s baseball).  Season to date (10-9).

SPORTS BLINK - "ESPN's Monday Night Football will have a new two-person commentator team for the first time during the 2012 NFL season with Mike Tirico and analyst Jon Gruden" - Ron Jaworski out of the booth; will appear on other ESPN shows -- ESPN release: "Jaworski has signed a five-year extension with ESPN for a new, expanded multiplatform NFL analyst role that includes appearances on Sunday NFL Countdown, Monday Night Countdown, NFL Matchup, NFL-branded specials, Mike & Mike in the Morning, Pardon the Interruption, and other platforms."

Next week, words of the month and Dear Rink Rats.

Until Next Monday, Adios.

Claremont, CA

February 20, 2012

#II-43, 96

The Red Carpet

Our 2012 Oscar Picks:

Supporting Actress – Jessica Chastain in “The Help”

Supporting Actor – Christopher Plummer in “Beginners”

Animated Feature – “Puss in Boots”

Leading Actress – Michelle Williams in “My Week with Marilyn”

Leading Actor – George Clooney in “The Descendants”

Directing – “Hugo”

Best Picture – “Hugo”

Best Supervisor in an Unsupporting Role – Mr. 30 Hour Work Week

Best Performance by a Hypocrite – Newt Gingrich

The 54th Grammy Awards: RECORD OF THE YEAR - 'Rolling In The Deep' Adele ... ALBUM OF THE YEAR - '21' Adele ... SONG OF THE YEAR - 'Rolling In The Deep' Adele Adkins and Paul Epworth (song writer award) ... BEST NEW ARTIST - Bon Iver ... BEST POP SOLO PERFORMANCE - Adele 'Someone Like You' ... BEST ROCK ALBUM - Foo Fighters 'Wasting Light' ... BEST POP DUO - Tony Bennett and Amy Winehouse 'Body and Soul' ... BEST POP VOCAL ALBUM - Adele '21' ... BEST RAP ALBUM - Kanye West 'My Beautiful Dark Twisted Fantasy' ... BEST POP INSTRUMENTAL ALBUM - Booker T. Jones 'The Road From Memphis' ... BEST DANCE RECORDING - Skrillex 'Scary Monsters and Nice Sprites' ... BEST DANCE/ELECTRONICA ALBUM - Skrillex 'Scary Monsters and Nice Sprites' ... BEST TRADITIONAL POP VOCAL ALBUM - Tony Bennett & Various Artists 'Duets II' ... BEST ROCK PERFORMANCE - Foo Fighters 'Walk' ... BEST HARD ROCK/METAL PERFORMANCE - Foo Fighters 'White Limo' ... BEST ROCK SONG - Foo Fighters (songwriters) 'Walk' ... BEST ALTERNATIVE MUSIC ALBUM - Bon Iver 'Bon Iver'.

MOST-WATCHED PROGRAMS IN U.S. TELEVISION HISTORY: 1. 111.3 Million - Super Bowl XLVI, NBC (Last Night's Game) ... 2. 111.0 Million - Super Bowl XLV, Fox ... 3. 106.5 Million - Super Bowl XLIV, CBS ... 4. 106.0 Million - M.A.S.H. Finale, CBS [1983].

PRIMARY RESULTS: Colorado (100%): Santorum 40.2% 26,372 ... Romney 34.9% 22,875 ... Gingrich 12.8% 8,394 ... Paul 11.8% 7,713 ... Write-In 0.1% 56 ... Perry 0.1% 52 ... Huntsman 0.1% 46 ... Bachmann 0.0% 27.

Minnesota (95.2%; count ended there at 3:04 a.m.): Santorum 44.8% 21,420 ... Paul 27.2% 13,023 ... Romney 16.9% 8,090 ... Gingrich 10.7% 5,128 ... Total Write-Ins 0.3% 140.

Missouri (100%): Santorum 55.2% 138,957 ... Romney 25.3% 63,826 ... Paul 12.2% 30,641 ... Uncommitted 3.9% 9,859 ... Perry 1.0% 2,463 ... Cain 0.9% 2,314 ... Bachmann 0.7% 1,690 ... Huntsman 0.4% 1,045 ... G. Johnson 0.2% 547 ... M. Meehan 0.1% 364 ... K. Drummond 0.1% 162.

WHAT IT MEANS - Santorum slips into "not Romney" pole position, knocking out Newt Gingrich, as the campaign shifts to a long slog toward Super Tuesday on March 6th. Much of the focus will be on Ohio given its general election swing state status, big delegate haul and new status as Newt's Last Stand. ... But will Gingrich and Santorum cancel each other out and hand a solid win to Romney? ... Expect the Romney attack machine to turn the dials up on its Santorum attacks on ear-marks and other issues starting this morning. Will Santorum have the cash to counter across so many expensive media markets over multiple weeks? Not likely. More broadly, the case for the GOP taking out Obama in 2012 looks as weak now as it ever has given an improving economy and a deeply muddled primary featuring a front-runner no one seems keen to rally around.

OFFICIAL OBAMA 2012 PLAYLIST FOR CROWD EVENTS (rallies, ropelines, etc.), to be released today: "Different People" (No Doubt) ... "Got to Get You in My Life" (Earth, Wind & Fire) ... "Green Onions" (Booker T & The MG's) ... "I Got You" (Wilco) ... "Keep on Pushing" (The Impressions) ... "Keep Reachin' Up" (Nicole Willis & the Soul Investigators) ... "Love You I Do?" (Jennifer Hudson) ... "No Nostalgia" (AgesAndAges) ... "Raise Up" (Ledisi) ... "Stand Up" (Sugarland) ... "This" (Darius Rucker) ... "We Used To Wait" (Arcade Fire) ... "You've Got the Love" (Florence and the Machine" ... "Your Smiling Face" (James Taylor) ...

... "REO Speedwagon" (Roll with the Change) ... "Everyday America" (Sugarland?) ... "Learn to Live" (Darius Rucker) ... "Let's Stay Together" (Al Green) ... "Mr. Blue Sky" (Electric Light Orchestra) ... "My Town" (Montgomery Gentry) ... "The Best Thing about Me Is You" (Ricky Martin, featuring Joss Stone) ... "You are the Best Thing" (Ray Lamontagne) ... "Keep Marchin'" (Raphael Saadiq) ... "Tonight's The Kind of Night" (Noah and the Whale) ... "We Take Care of Our Own" (Bruce Springsteen) ... "Keep Me In Mind" (Zac Brown Band) ... "The Weight" Aretha Franklin ... "Even Better Than The Real Thing" (U2) ... "Home" (Dierks Bentley).

BIRTHDAYS THIS WEEK – Birthday wishes and thoughts this week to: Geoff Ball …famous street hockey goaltender, Michael Bloomberg (70), Jim Brown (76), Jaromir Jagr (40), John McEnroe (53), Gretchen Pugliese …famous hockey Mom, Smokey Robinson (72), Rene Russo (58), Cybill Shepherd (62), Jerry Springer (68), Ice-T (54), John Travolta (58), Chuck Yeager (89).

GET WELL – Loyal Rink Rats supporter Jim Douthit is under the weather and we wish him a speedy recovery and all our prayers.

COLLEGE HOCKEY PICK OF THE WEEK – Saturday 2/18, 7:00 PM ET, SLUTV, the annual central New York brawl in Canton; #13 ranked Cornell University Big Red (13-6-6) visit St. Lawrence University (12-15-3). The Skating Saints have won four in a row and will prove a tough team to beat in Appleton Arena. We pick St. Lawrence to win. Season to date (3-4).

THE SWAMI’S TOP PICKS – St. Lawrence 5 Cornell 3. Season to date (10-8).

QUEBEC PEE WEE HOCKEY TOURNAMENT – Good luck to the Anaheim Junior Ducks as they travel to Quebec City this week to play in the International Hockey Tournament taking place during the Winter Carnival. Today the Junior Ducks play game #1 vs. the Moncton Wildcats. Game time temperature outside a chilly 7 degrees.

SPORTS BLINK - Major League Baseball teams start reporting for spring training on SUNDAY:: "Tim Lincecum thought about the seismic shifts of baseball's offseason, the ones that saw Albert Pujols and Prince Fielder migrate to the American League. 'I think it's great. I won't have to pitch to them anymore,' San Francisco's two-time Cy Young Award winner joked. Baseball returns this weekend when Seattle Mariners' pitchers and catchers report to spring training in Peoria, Ariz."

--Schedule of spring-training report dates - for pitchers and catchers, and for full squads -- of the 30 Major League Baseball clubs pitchers and catchers and full squads of the 30 Major League clubs http://atmlb.com/xXyaYc

FORTY YEARS – This week in 1972 Richard Nixon began his trip to China. The economic and political world would never be the same.

GOOD LUCK – To three wonderful women who are about to begin new challenges; BE, LP, and SV. We wish them good fortune, happiness and love.

DRIVING THE WEEK - U.S. markets will get their first chance this morning to react to the Greek vote and riots. Not likely the Obama budget will be much of a market mover as its broad outlines were well known and its mostly discounted as a political statement ... President Obama delivers his budget remarks in Annandale at 11:00 a.m. Expect to hear the phrase "dead on arrival" from Republicans at least a few times before that ... Obama and VP Biden meet with Chinese Vice President Xi Jinping on Tuesday before the president starts a budget/jobs road trip to Milwaukee (Master Lock) on Wednesday and Seattle on Friday with stops for fundraising Thursday in northern and southern California.

Next week, a mid-winter recipe, words of the month and Dear Rink Rats.

Until Next Monday, Adios.

Claremont, CA
February 13, 2012

#II-42, 95

A Midwinter Sunday

Sunday February 5 started like any other Sunday, sleep in a bit to 7:00 instead of the usual day, 5:30. Open up the Sunday papers; NY Times, LA Times, and Daily Bulletin. Watch CBS Sunday and Meet The Press.

Then things became different - ESPN SportsCenter has the NFL crew, the Weather Channel is live from of all places Indianapolis. CNBC is live on a Sunday, what gives? It is Super Bowl Sunday.

The annual national party, hype, commercial and yes a football game. Facebook, Twitter are full of picks and commentary, everyone is an expert. The basketball, hockey, and golf telecasts are early to finish before 3:00 PM Pacific time. Only in America does a whole society stop for about three hours.

Office pools, side bets, family challenges, rule the day. The game, pigs in a blanket, nachos, every conceivable snack and beverage all devoured while watching over hyped commercials and athletes. Why all the fuss, no idea - what time is Downton Abbey on tonight?

BEST SUPER BOWL AD: Chrysler's "It's Halftime in America," starring Clint Eastwood http://bit.ly/w8hVzX

SPORTS BLINK - NFL release: "New York Giants quarterback Eli Manning was voted the winner of the Pete Rozelle Trophy, awarded to the Super Bowl XLVI Most Valuable Player. ... Manning hit nine different receiving targets and completed 30 of 40 passes for 296 yards and one touchdown for a passer rating of 103.8. Manning rallied the Giants from a 17-9 third-quarter deficit [to beat the Patriots, 21-17] ... Manning is the first Giants player to win the Rozelle Trophy multiple times; also voted MVP of Super Bowl XLII. Previous Giants Super Bowl MVPs: QB Phil Simms (Super Bowl XXI), running back Ottis Anderson (Super Bowl XXV) and Manning (Super Bowl XLII). He is the fifth player in NFL history to win multiple Super Bowl MVP honors (Joe Montana, three; Tom Brady, Terry Bradshaw and Bart Starr, two)."

SUPER BOWL RECORDS SET IN SUPER BOWL XLVI:

Oldest Winning Head Coach - 65, Tom Coughlin

Most Consecutive Completions - 16, Tom Brady

Most Consecutive Completions To Start Game - 9, Eli Manning

Most Passing Yards, Career - 1,277, Tom Brady

Most Passes, Career - 197, Tom Brady

Most Completions, Career - 127, Tom Brady

Most Punts Inside 10, Game - 3, Steve Weatherford

Most First Downs Passing, Game, Both Teams - 33 (N.Y.Giants 18, New England 15)

OTHER STATS -

--Eli Manning is the fifth player to win the Super Bowl MVP Award at least twice. Joe Montana won it three times; Bart Starr, Terry Bradshaw and Tom Brady won it twice.

--Ahmad Bradshaw is the fourth player to score the game-winning touchdown in the last minute of a Super Bowl, joining John Taylor (Super Bowl XXIII), Plaxico Burress (Super Bowl XLII) and Santonio Holmes (Super Bowl XLIII).

--The Giants won the Super Bowl for the fourth time, tying Green Bay for the fourth-highest total of Super Bowl wins. Pittsburgh has won six; San Francisco and Dallas have won five. The Giants have now won the NFL Championship eight times; only Green Bay (13) and Chicago (9) have won as many.

--In each of the Giants' four Super Bowl victories, they had trailed at halftime (10-9 to Denver in Super Bowl XXI, 12-10 to Buffalo in Super Bowl XXV, 7-3 to New England in Super Bowl XLII, and 10-9 to New England in Super Bowl XLVI).

--Best Super Bowl Party was at The Pugliese’s; great food, interesting conversation, many Madonna lovers, cheating was prominent with the betting pool.

TWEET STATS - @twitter: "The highest Tweets per second #SuperBowl peak came at the end of the game: 12,233. 2nd highest was during Madonna's performance: 10,245."

Had enough???

BIRTHDAYS THIS WEEK – Birthday wishes and thoughts this week to: Tom Brokaw (72), Garth Brooks (50), John Hickenlooper (60), Carole King (70), Michael McDonald (60), Robert Wagner (82), John Williams (80).

COLLEGE HOCKEY PICK OF THE WEEK – Saturday 2/11, 7:00 PM MT, FSN – a huge February WCHA contest with #2 ranked University of Minnesota Golden Gophers (19-9-1) visit Magness Arena and the 13 ranked Denver University Pioneers (15-9-4). Only three weeks to go in the regular season, Minnesota will win a tough one in Pioneer land. Season to date (3-3).

NFL PICK OF THE WEEK – Congratulations to the New York football Giants on their fourth Super Bowl victory over the New England Patriots 21 -17. We end our NFL season a hapless 11-11, an off year for Rink Rats but a fun one…see you in September. Season to date (11-11).


THE SWAMI’S TOP PICKS – Minnesota 5 Denver 2, Michigan State 3 Michigan 2, Detroit 4 Philadelphia 3. Season to date (9-6).

BUSINESS BURST -- "Facebook to files $5 billion IPO: "The company founded by Mark Zuckerberg in a Harvard dorm room in 2004 picked Morgan Stanley to take the coveted 'lead left' role in what is expected to be the largest IPO ever to emerge from Silicon Valley. ... Facebook declined to comment on the report by IFR, a unit of Thomson Reuters. ... The preliminary IPO filing sets the stage for a May market of the world's largest social network, IFR reported, a coming-out party that will dwarf almost any before that, including Google Inc's $2 billion IPO."

IPO COULD VALUE FACEBOOK AT $100 BILLION - "Facebook Inc. filed for an initial public offering ... that could value the social network between $75 billion and $100 billion, putting the eight-year-old company on track to be one of the biggest U.S. stock-market debuts of all time ... The company listed its offering size at $5 billion in a securities filing, but aims to raise as much as $10 billion when it goes public this spring ... After years of speculation, Facebook for the first time revealed its financial numbers, showing why it's one of the coveted Internet companies. Facebook said it produced $3.71 billion in revenue last year mostly from advertising on the site, with a profit of $1 billion. ... Among U.S. companies, only Visa ,General Motors and AT&T Wireless have held larger offerings than $10 billion."

WILL GM GO FROM BAILOUT TO $10 BILLION PER YEAR? - "Bailed out by the government just three years ago, General Motors ... has set its sights on a once-unthinkable goal: making more than $10 billion a year. It already is headed in that direction. On Feb. 16, GM is likely to report 2011 net income of about $8 billion, its highest ever ... Behind the gain to nearly twice 2010's $4.7 billion are growth in China and strong profits in North America, where GM has shed billions of dollars of costs and lately has been able to command higher prices. GM has loftier ambitions still. It aims over the next several years to raise its profit margin-the portion of revenue left after paying expenses-to 10%, Daniel Ammann, chief financial officer, said in an interview.

"That would be a significant jump from the current margins of about 6% and would be among the highest in the auto industry. It would be a remarkable reversal for a company that needed an infusion of billions of dollars in taxpayer money to stave off collapse in 2009 and later went through a bankruptcy restructuring engineered by the federal government. GM has added 13,000 jobs in the U.S. since bankruptcy ... Such success could make it easier for the federal government to sell some of its remaining 26% stake in GM. Doing so at the current stock price would mean the government would lose more than $10 billion on the GM investment acquired in the bailout."

FLORIDA WRAP: ROMNEY WINS BIG - Florida Primary results with 100 percent of precincts reporting: Mitt Romney, 46.4% (771,842); Newt Gingrich: 31.9 % (531,294); Rick Santorum: 13.4% (222,248); Ron Paul: 7.0% (116,776)

RONALD WILSON REAGAN was born 101 years ago today

Next week, Academy Awards picks and a mid-winter recipe.

Until Next Monday, Adios.

Claremont, CA
February 6, 2012

#II-41, 94

Digital Detox

This writer has become tethered to e-mail, BlackBerrys, iPads and other electronic devices. The constant use of digital media seems to be taking a toll on my hair color and my ability to focus. New research is showing that such immersion can cause multitaskers to have more fractured thinking and trouble shutting out irrelevant information, and that even when they are offline, those problems persist. A lot of Americans feel stress from juggling too much incoming information, but have to be online for work.

With strategic thinking being in play these days: What are some strategies for unplugging from the demand of digital devices? Is there such a thing as too much multitasking?

The only way to stop is to stop – to turn off the BlackBerry and the iPhone, to check e-mail two or three times a day rather than every three minutes, to spend a few hours reading a novel or immersed in a hobby or having a real conversation. If you regularly give your brain an opportunity to relax, by concentrating on one thing instead of a dozen, the cognitive and emotional costs of multitasking will decline. Cutting back sounds easy, but of course it’s not. It’s really hard. If your boss and your colleagues expect you to be connected all the time, your career may suffer if you go silent. And if your friends are texting, tweeting, and Facebooking around the clock, going offline can leave you feeling socially isolated.

Then again, the only way to change social norms is for individuals to change their behavior. If you lead, maybe others will follow. At the very least, you’ll probably feel calmer, sharper and more in control of your thoughts.

One additional suggestion, every hour or so turn off all your gadgets and go low-tech, whether it’s writing a letter, having a brief conversation at the water cooler, or taking a stroll in the park or the parking lot. It will help minimize stress, maintain mental focus, and improve the quality of your life.

Finally, my best suggestion, GET A LIFE!!!!!

BULLETIN: ROMNEY TAX RATE 13.9 PERCENT IN 2010 - "Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney released tax records on Tuesday indicating he will pay $6.2 million in taxes on a total of $45.2 million in income over the years 2010 and 2011. ... [T]he former private equity executive released tax returns indicating he and his wife, Ann, paid an effective tax rate of 13.9 percent in 2010. They expect to pay a 15.4 percent rate when they file their returns for 2011. Romney's tax rate is below that of most wage-earning Americans because most of his income, as outlined in more than 500 pages of tax documents, flows from capital gains on investments. ...

"Romney advisers stressed that the holdings in the Caymans -- along with those in a Swiss bank account that was closed in 2010 after an investment adviser decided it could be politically embarrassing to Romney -- were reported on tax returns and were not vehicles to avoid taxes. They also stressed that Romney, whose holdings are in three blind trusts, makes no decisions as to how his money is invested. Regardless, the emerging picture was of a man of great means who contributes mightily to charity. The documents showed he and his wife contributed $7 million in charity over the two years, much of it going to his Mormon church."

OTU: OBAMA RIPS BANKS; SAYS RICH SHOULD PAY MORE - President Obama surprised some in the banking industry by going even more sharply populist than expected in his re-election year State of the Union address. The president announced a new "Financial Crimes Unit" populated by "highly trained investigators to crack down on large-scale fraud and protect people's investments." (Sure sounds a lot like the Financial Fraud Enforcement Task Force he created in 2009, but never mind that). ...

Obama also said he was "asking my Attorney General to create a special unit of federal prosecutors and leading state attorneys general to expand our investigations into the abusive lending and packaging of risky mortgages that led to the housing crisis. This new unit will hold accountable those who broke the law, speed assistance to homeowners, and help turn the page on an era of recklessness that hurt so many Americans." ... The new unit will be headed by New York Attorney General Eric Schneiderman.

FED RATES LOW UNTIL 2014 - "Federal Reserve officials said they expect to keep short-term interest rates near zero for almost three more years and signaled they could restart a controversial bond-buying program in yet another campaign to rev up the disappointing economic recovery. ... Officials hope that by signaling their intentions on short-term interest rates, long-term rates will fall, spurring investment, spending and growth. Since August, the Fed had been saying rates would stay near zero at least until mid-2013. A bond-buying program-also meant to push down long-term interest rates-could be the next step. Mr. Bernanke said there would be a 'very strong case' for even more action by the Fed 'if the recovery continues to be modest and progress on unemployment very slow and inflation appears to be likely to be below target for a number of years out.'"

The U.S. economy grew at its fastest pace since the first-half of 2010 during final three months of last year, but the improvement was tepid compared to past recoveries and points to only modest growth in 2012.

The nation's gross domestic product -- the value of all goods and services produced -- grew at an annual rate of 2.8% between October and December, the Commerce Department said Friday. The reading was up from 1.8% annualized growth in the third quarter, but below economists' forecast of 3.0% growth.

For the year, GDP grew 1.7% as economic growth improved slightly in each quarter after a very sluggish start to 2011.

BIRTHDAYS THIS WEEK – Birthday wishes and thoughts this week to: Ernie Banks (81), Christie Brinkley (58), Sara Evans (41), Gene Hackman (82), Bill Murray (58), Graham Nash (70), Dan Quayle (65), Nolan Ryan (65), Roger Staubach (70).

COLLEGE HOCKEY PICK OF THE WEEK – Saturday 2/4, 7:30 PM ET, CBS College Sports; #17 ranked Miami Redhawks (15-11-2) visit Yost Ice Arena and the University of Michigan Wolverines, #8 ranked (15-9-4). Red Berenson’s club has been playing excellent hockey of late, too much for the boys from Ohio. We go with Big Blue in this one. Season to date (2-3).

NFL PICK OF THE WEEK – Rink Rats last pick of the NFL season, as you can see by our record a very mediocre season. February 5, 6:00 PM ET, NBC the New York Giants (12-7) vs. the New England Patriots (15-3). We think defense is going to decide this one, the defense that survives. Tom Brady’s last real shot at being the greatest QB of all-time. Rink Rats pick New England in a close one in Indy. Season to date (11-10).

SUPER BOWL HYPE - ESPN will have "more than 110 hours of television and radio programming originating live from Pan Am Plaza ... in downtown Indianapolis," per a release. (The game is on NBC.) Chris Berman is covering his 30th Super Bowl.

NBC Sports coverage on Sunday begins @ 3:00 PM ET, this will be the 17th time NBC broadcasts The Super Bowl, equaling CBS for most broadcasts by a network.

THE SWAMI’S TOP PICKS – New England 35 New York 32, Michigan 4 Miami 3, CMS 60 Whittier 54 (men hoops). Season to date (7-5).

DRIVING THE WEEK - Welcome to jobs week! The slightly sluggish Q4 GDP figure and its reliance on inventory build tamped economic excitement a bit. ADP number out Thursday is expected to come in around 180K after December's big 325K (a clear overshoot). ... The government number out Friday is also likely to ease off from December's 200K. Consensus is a gain of 150K and the unemployment rate remaining at 8.5 percent. Won't be a surprise if it rises to 8.6 percent (and won't be bad if it's due to more people looking) ...

Next week, Academy Awards picks and a mid-winter recipe.

Until Next Monday, Adios.

Claremont, CA
January 30, 2012

#II-40, 93

Jackasses a Plenty

JACKASS OF THE MONTH – Jackass definition: n. 1. A male ass or donkey. 2. A foolish or stupid person; a blockhead: "You've acted like an irrational jackass and it's time you stopped" (Margaret Truman).


Frank McCourt, LA Dodger owner, has made our Jackass of the Month award again, and in all likelihood for the last time. But is he the real jackass? With 500 million dollars of debt Mr. McCourt will be selling the Los Angeles Dodgers for what some are estimating $1.5 billion. $1.5 billion for a middle of the road baseball team, where you take your life in your hands when you go to a ball game and their only true commodity of value is a year away from retiring (Vin Scully). Maybe we are the jackasses!

BULLETIN - Iowa GOP declares caucuses a tie - Des Moines Register's Jennifer Jacobs: "Santorum finished ahead by 34 votes ... MISSING DATA: 8 precincts' numbers will never be certified ... PARTY VERDICT: GOP official says, 'It's a split decision' ... Rick Santorum - Final total: 29,839 Change: -168 ... Mitt Romney - Final total: 29,805 Change: -210 ... It's a tie for the ages."

S.C. PRIMARY, 100% of precincts reporting: Newt Gingrich, 243,153 - 40 percent ... Mitt Romney, 167,279 - 28 percent ... Rick Santorum, 102,055 - 17 percent ... Ron Paul, 77,993 - 13 percent ... Herman Cain, 6,324 - 1 percent ... Rick Perry, 2,494 - 0 percent ... Jon Huntsman, 1,161 - 0 percent ... Michele Bachmann, 494 - 0 percent.

BUSINESS BURST -- WSJ, "Kodak Files for Bankruptcy Protection,": "The storied former blue chip said it had secured $950 million in financing from Citigroup Inc. to help keep it afloat during bankruptcy proceedings. ... The filing is a setback for Chief Executive Antonio Perez, who joined the company after running the printer business at Hewlett-Packard Co. Kodak shed more than $7 billion in market value over his tenure, as the executive failed to replicate his former employer's success in printers. Uncertainty over the viability of Mr. Perez's printer strategy raises questions about the fate of Kodak's 19,000 employees. ... Kodak, which filed in bankruptcy court in Manhattan, said it will continue to operate its businesses and hopes to emerge from Chapter 11 next year."

TURN AROUND - General Motors has reclaimed again the top spot as the world's biggest-selling carmaker, dethroning Toyota for the first time since 2007.

BIRTHDAYS THIS WEEK – Birthday wishes and thoughts this week to: Alan Alda (76), Ernest Borgnine (95), Eddie Van Halen (57), Mariska Hargitay (48), Dominik Hasek (47), Abe Helou …distinguished Dean, Patti Noreen …distinguished St. Lawrence Alumnus, Keith Olbermann (53), Tiffani Thiessen (38), Bob Uecker (76), Mayor Antonio Villar (59), Robin Zander (59).

GREEN LEADER - Boston Globe Sunday Magazine preview, "Bill McKibben, the man who crushed the Keystone XL pipeline: How a mild-mannered Vermont journalist derailed that $7 billion oil project, engineered history's largest green protest, and became the environmental movement's most unlikely celebrity," by Barbara Moran: " Tall and stooped, intensely wonky and hopelessly earnest, the 51-year-old McKibben is an unlikely candidate for celebrity. Yet over the past few years he has emerged as the new superstar of the environmental movement. And to many environmentalists - like Al Gore, who in an e-mail praises McKibben for 'his passion, his sincerity and his depth of knowledge' - McKibben offers the brightest hope for their future. ... McKibben and his Keystone protests put a finger in this one particular dike, at least temporarily, and got an environmental cause on the Colbert Report. And that was just the beginning. America, it seems, is about to have a McKibben Moment."

TOP DOGS - "China's remarkable economic momentum , ... coupled with the worldwide expectation that soon it will challenge America's premier global status, justify ranking China just below the United States in the current international hierarchy. ... A sequential ranking of other major powers beyond the top two would be imprecise at best. Any list, however, has to include Russia, Japan, and India, as well as the EU's informal leaders: Great Britain, Germany, and France. Russia ranks high geopolitically largely because of its rich stores of oil and gas and its continued status as a nuclear power second only to the United States .... Brazil and Indonesia have already laid claims to participation in global economic decision making within the G-20 ...

SPORTS BLINK - "The longest winning streak in college sports is over". "Trinity College lost a squash match to Yale 5-4 on Wednesday, snapping a 252-match winning streak that dated back to the 1997-98 season. The Bantams are the 13-time defending national champions and were 8-0 heading into the match. Trinity officials had called this year's team the school's most inexperienced in years. The Bantams lost six starters and five All-Americans from last year's championship squad."

POTUS THE WEEK AHEAD : “On Monday, the President will welcome the six-time Stanley Cup Champion Boston Bruins to the White House to honor the team and their 2011 Stanley Cup victory. Continuing his tradition of recognizing sports teams for their work off the ice, President Obama will highlight the Boston Bruins Foundation which has raised and donated more than $7 million to various charitable organizations in the six New England states. On Tuesday evening, the President will deliver his State of the Union Address at 9:00 PM EST. The First Lady will attend. Following the President's State of the Union address, he will begin a five-state, three-day swing across the country. On Wednesday, the President will begin his trip with an event in the Cedar Rapids area, followed by an event in the Phoenix area. He will then travel to Las Vegas where he will spend the night. On Thursday, the President will hold events in the Las Vegas area and the Denver area before traveling to Detroit that evening where he will spend the night. On Friday, the President will hold an event in the Detroit area before returning to Washington."

WALL STREET WEEK - Wall Street’s positive momentum bumps squarely into earnings season this week, with nearly a quarter of the S&P 500 set to report over the next five sessions. The Dow and S&P are coming off their biggest weekly gains in four weeks, and both have registered their best three-week starts to any year since 1997. Also on the radar: the ongoing Greek debt restructuring talks, as the country and private creditors try to work towards a crucial deal.

COLLEGE HOCKEY PICK OF THE WEEK – Saturday 1/28, 7:00 PM ET, HGTV an ECAC central New York rivalry continues: #9 ranked Cornell University Big Red (11-4-4) visit #18 ranked Colgate Raiders (12-9-3) at Starr Rink in Hamilton, New York. Colgate is led by St. Lawrence Alumnus Don Vaughn ’84. Colgate will upset ECAC leader Cornell in this Saturday night tilt. Season to date (1-3).


NFL PICK OF THE WEEK – The 2012 Pro Bowl will be the NFL's all-star game for the 2011 season. It will take place at 7:00 p.m. EST (2:00 p.m. local time) on Sunday, January 29, 2012 at Aloha Stadium in Honolulu, Hawaii and will be televised nationally by NBC. It will be the final Pro Bowl on NBC under the current television contract until at least 2023 (ESPN will assume Pro Bowl broadcast rights in the new deal that begins in 2014). We like the NFC to win. Season to date (11-9).


SPORTS-BLINK - New England Patriots open as three point favorites over the New York Giants in Super Bowl XLVI. Over/under: 55.5. Sorry TA.

THE SWAMI’S TOP PICKS – NFC 38 AFC 32, Colgate 5 Cornell 3, Redlands 85 La Verne 75 (women hoops). Season to date (5-4).

DRIVING THE WEEK - President Obama delivers his State of the Union Address on Tuesday, his chance to regain the spotlight, if briefly, from Republicans. Expect an election year address doubling-down on the confrontational approach to Congress on jobs legislation as well as a handful of new initiatives including tax credits for returning jobs to the U.S. and possibly some new efforts to aid underwater home-owners (but probably no massive refinancing package). Obama is also expected to go harder on China on allowing the Yuan to rise and on intellectual property theft, seeking to ensure he is not outflanked on the issue by Romney, who has pledged to label China a currency manipulator on his first day in office and impose new tariffs ... Romney releases his tax returns on Tuesday, which will give Obama a contrast when he suggests raising taxes on the wealthy in the SOTU ...

Republicans debate tonight in Tampa at 9:00 p.m. in a high-stakes, broadcast TV battle moderated by NBC's Brian Williams. It's the first prime-time, non-cable debate of the cycle ... They debate again on Thursday in Jacksonville from 8:00 p.m. to 10:00 p.m. on CNN hosted by Wolf Blitzer ... House Oversight subcommittee has a hearing at 1:30 p.m. on Tuesday examining how the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau will exercise this authority under unconfirmed Director Richard Cordray ... FOMC meets this week and will unveil its beefed up communications campaign on Wednesday but probably not any additional easing ... Top data this week include fourth quarter GDP and Reuters/Univ. Michigan consumer sentiment on Friday. ... World Economic Forum begins Wednesday in Davos.

Next week, Digital Detox.

Until Next Monday, Ciao.

Claremont, CA
January 23, 2012

#II-39, 92

The Elephant in the Room

Have you ever heard of this expression, “the elephant in the room”. What does this mean? Is there someone who is rather obese in the room? Is there an odor resembling an elephant or animal in the room? Is this a small, confining room? Well in some examples this might describe the meaning of the expression but I tend to think of the saying as meaning something people know about but are afraid to mention, discuss, and confront.


I find many examples of the “Elephant in the Room” on a daily basis –

- The boss who cannot manage but continues to run the department because their boss is just as ineffective and lacking leadership.

- The University who has an athletic program but many of their sports have no on campus facilities.

- The public servant who serves at the mercy of the citizens but cares only about making money.

- Higher education students piling on more and more student loans with no guarantee that they can ever pay off this debt.

- The family that spends more on cell phones than on books for their children to read.

- The wife or girlfriend who knows her husband or partner cheats but does nothing.

What should one do to challenge these elephants? One word: faith. Faith in yourself that you know what is right and wrong to set it straight.

The world would be a much better place without all these elephants.

THE BIG NUMBER: $378 MILLION FOR APPLE CHIEF - "Apple Inc. Chief Executive Officer Tim Cook is due to receive annual compensation worth $378 million, boosted by restricted stock awards that are payable over the coming decade. The total includes $376.2 million in shares that will vest starting in five years ... Cook's base salary was $900,000 in 2011. ... Apple's board ... now led by Chairman Art Levinson, offered the stock options to Cook to help ensure that he doesn't pursue other job prospects. 'No formula or peer group benchmark' was used to calculate the amount, the company said in the filing. Steve Jobs, who passed the reins to Cook before his death in October, had given input about the pay package."

HOT STAT: CONSUMER CREDIT SOARS - "US consumer borrowing rose by far more than analysts had expected in November as Americans opened their wallets for cars and other purchases amid signs of an improving economy. Consumer credit surged by $20.4bn - the biggest jump since November 2001 - to $2.48tn, the Federal Reserve said. That was well above economists' median estimate of $7bn and nearly twice the high end of estimates of $11.6bn. ... Consumers' willingness to spend has risen as recent data have drawn a brightening picture of the economic recovery. ... Sentiment surveys have recorded rising confidence, and retailers enjoyed record sales on Black Friday, the official start of the end-of-year shopping season."

TOP STORY: WHY DALEY HAD TO GO - "Daley ... was never a great fit inside the West Wing - and Obama and his closest aides realized that mere months into his tumultuous tenure. People close to the situation tell POLITICO that Daley decided to bolt nearly a year earlier than expected in part because he felt marginalized. He was still involved in most key meetings, but he had waning influence ... Daley, a charming if blunt former Commerce secretary, had an even rockier relationship with key Hill Democrats, especially Sen. Harry Reid (D-Nev.). So the selection of low-key budget expert Jack Lew as his replacement was greeted with relief among Democratic lawmakers. Daley ... also so had a habit of freelancing, including his decision to sit down for a frank, expletive-laced interview with POLITICO's Roger Simon - without informing Obama's communications staff."

NEW HAMPSHIRE TAKEAWAYS - "1) Mitt Romney haters enter the final stages of grief ... Romney exceeded his own vote share from the 2008 primary, when he came in second. ... Having survived the evangelicals of Iowa and the famously ornery independents of New Hampshire, Romney now heads into South Carolina with momentum, making him the person undecided voters are likelier to tilt toward. ... 2) Jon Huntsman's surge ... may have fallen short of the second place he seemed headed for. But Huntsman went from cellar-dweller in the polls to third place in a matter of about two weeks ... 3) The GOP cannot ignore Ron Paul ... 4) There is no clear conservative anti-Romney ... 5) Super PACs are more important than ever: If there is anything that will allow Gingrich to keep going past South Carolina, ... it's the super PAC supporting him. The same is true for Santorum and for Huntsman."

ROMNEY ROLLS IN NEW HAMPSHIRE - AP with 95 percent of precincts reporting: Mitt Romney 39.4% (94,255); Ron Paul: 22.8% (54,513); Jon Huntsman: 16.9% (40,388); Newt Gingrich: 9.4% (22,518); Rick Santorum: 9.3% (22,293); Rick Perry: 0.7% (1,688)

ROMNEY 2008: 31.6% (75,546), second to John McCain: 37.1% (88,571)

MEET THE BILLIONAIRES DRAGGING OUT THE RACE - "Meet the three billionaires who could drag out the GOP presidential primary, bloody up front-runner .. Romney and weaken the odds of defeating ... Obama: Sheldon Adelson, Foster Friess and Jon Huntsman, Sr. The three men are contributing millions of dollars to a trio of outside groups flooding the airwaves in early voting states with brutal ads attacking Romney and ads backing the candidates they would prefer to win the Republican nomination. Adelson, a Las Vegas casino mogul, wrote a $5 million check - and has considered giving much more - to a so-called super PAC backing Newt Gingrich's presidential campaign. Huntsman, Sr. ... reportedly invested millions in a super PAC supporting the presidential bid of his son, former Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman, Jr. And Friess, a Wyoming mutual fund master, acknowledged to POLITICO that he is a major financial backer of a super PAC supporting Rick Santorum called the Red, White and Blue Fund and is preparing to give more, but declined to say how much he has given or plans to give."

"The prospect that these candidates could carry on is a testament to the new world of campaign money ushered in by a pair of federal court rulings in 2010: A single wealthy donor can now prop up a presidential campaign with unlimited cash, even if the candidate is getting little traction with voters. 'I guess if Newt's got $5 million, it makes sense that Rick [Santorum] should have a little bit,' said Friess, who has known Santorum since the 1990s and shares his conservative views on social and foreign policy issues. ... 'I believe that Rick Santorum is the most electable candidate. And I'm just thrilled to be able to have played a role so far.'

HUNTSMAN OUT - "Every vote he took in S.C. and Florida was one Romney wouldn't get. We figured between 8 and 14 [points] in S.C.: That's the difference between a Romney win in S.C. and someone else winning. It doesn't do the party any good to drag this on. Mitt is the one who can beat Obama and turn economy around. He felt good coming out of New Hampshire, where we gained 10 points in three days. We expected the same movement in S.C., but it still would have left him short. He discussed with family and senior staff Friday through the weekend. The family came to the final decision, which everyone agreed with [Sunday]. He ran a race we can all be proud of. He addressed key issues like too big to fail banks that nobody else was taking on. His message of restoring trust in Washington is an important one that he will continue to advocate for."

EUROPE SINGS THE DEBT ROLL-OVER BLUES - "Europe has a $1 trillion problem. As difficult as the last two years have been for Europe, 2012 could be even tougher. Each week, countries will need to sell billions of dollars of bonds - a staggering $1 trillion in total - to replace existing debt and cover their current budget deficits. At any point, should banks, pensions and other big investors balk, anxiety could course through the markets ... Even if governments attract investors at reasonable interest rates one month, they will have to repeat the process again the next month - and signs of skittish buyers could make each sale harder to manage than the previous one ... Given this vicious cycle, policy makers and investors are closely watching the debt auctions for potential weakness. On Thursday, Spain is set to sell as much as 5 billion euros ($6.3 billion) of government bonds. Italy follows on Friday with an auction of more than $9 billion."

BIRTHDAYS THIS WEEK – Birthday wishes and thoughts this week to: Muhammad Ali (70), Mike Bossy (55), Jim Carrey (50), A.J. Foyt (77), Robert Kennedy Jr. (58), Renee Miller …famous Commencement hostess, Jack Nicklaus (72), Dr. Laura Schlessinger (65).

BCS COLLEGE BOWL PICK OF THE WEEK – Our season is over, congratulations to The University of Alabama Crimson Tide for winning the national D-1 football championship. We finished the season 12 – 8, it was fun, see you next fall.

COLLEGE HOCKEY PICK OF THE WEEK – Saturday 1/21, 7:00 PM ET, SHN, the rivalry continues in Potsdam; St. Lawrence University Saints (8-12-3) visit the Clarkson Golden Knights (10-10-5) in this ECAC classic matchup. St. Lawrence is led by Canton, New York native, Junior and Hobey Baker candidate, Kyle Flanagan. It will take a big game by Mr. Flanagan to upset the big green of Clarkson. We pick an upset, surprise, St. Lawrence to win. Season to date (1-2).

NFL PICK OF THE WEEK – Sunday 1/22, 6:00 PM ET, Fox; the New York Giants visit the San Francisco 49ers in the NFC Championship game. The Giants are on a roll and will continue on to Indianapolis and The Super Bowl. Season to date (10-9).


THE LINES: New England by 7½ over Baltimore (50 points) ... 49ers by 2½ over G-men (44 points).

THE SWAMI’S TOP PICKS – New England 28 Baltimore 17, New York 24 San Francisco 14, St. Lawrence 4 Clarkson 3. Season to date (3-3).

DEAR RINK RATS:

Are birth control pills tax deductible?

Looking for write offs.

Dear Looking for write offs:

Only if they don’t work.

RR.



DEAR RINK RATS:

I have always wanted to have my family history traced, but I can’t afford to spend a lot of money to do it. Any suggestions?

History buff.

Dear History buff:


Yes. Run for public office.

RR.



WORDS OF THE MONTH –

pusillanimous \pyoo-suh-LAN-uh-muhs\, adjective:

Lacking in courage and resolution; contemptibly fearful; cowardly.

Evil, unspeakable evil, rose in our midst, and we as a people were too weak, too indecisive, too pusillanimous to deal with it.
-- Kevin Myers, "An Irishman's Diary", Irish Times, October 20, 1999

postre, noun

dessert

De postre tomé un helado.

I had ice cream for dessert.

¿Qué hay de postre?


What’s for dessert?

DRIVING THE WEEK - $4/gallon gasoline is close at hand this spring in most of America. How will this influence summer travel plans? $2 billion a week is being spent in Afghanistan, President Obama continues this week to formulate a plan to end this U.S. commitment. The Euro debt downgrade last week sends another message to U.S. leaders to get our house in order.

Next week, Jack Ass of the Month.

Until Next Monday, Ciao.

Claremont, CA
January 16, 2012

#II-38, 91