Happy New Year to those who still follow the Gregorian Calendar. To those who adhere to the Trumpian Calendar, 2020 doesn't really end until noon on January 20. Between now and then, we'll get a heavy dose of antidemocratic acts from a desperate, deranged president, and his enablers who continue to betray American democracy, but who—especially with this last sick, faux-attempt to overturn an election by the Ted Cruz-led dirty dozen of power-hungry, seditious Senators jockeying to excite the most rabid activists in a brainwashed base—have actually added a valuable course correction to historians reviewing this era. It was never just about Trump. He grew out of a festering rot; and his departure will not halt its growth, though, it will thankfully deprive it of the nonstop supply of too-fresh fertilizer. Let's not feign shock at what's taking place. This whole presidency has been a slow motion attack on democratic norms and an affront to basic decency. The new, dangerous variant of the "perfect" phone call is a natural evolution of his tenure. Lies, mobsteresque strong-arming, and desperate pleas have long been the the calling cards of Trump phone scams. It's just that now, instead of trying to falsely increase book sales, juice his rank on the Forbes list, or cheat his way out of paying off a debt, he's curb stomping democracy. I wouldn't be surprised if he called Brad Raffensperger collect.
One last bit of intrigue ... Former Vice President Cheney, who has kept a low profile in the Trump years, "originated" the idea for a WashPost op-ed in which all 10 living former SecDefs — including both of Trump's — argue that the "time for questioning the results has passed,"
RESOLUTIONS - When the psychologist John Norcross researched New Year’s resolutions, in the nineteen-eighties, he found that more than fifty per cent of Americans made some sort of resolution. After six months, only forty per cent had stuck with it. When Norcross followed up two years later, the number had dropped to nineteen per cent. Even among the successes, more than half had experienced lapses—fourteen, on average. Still, we keep telling ourselves that we can lose weight, save money, and go to the gym.
It turns out that timing is important in determining whether or not we succeed. In May, 2012, Katherine Milkman, a behavioral economist at the University of Pennsylvania, was invited to the PiLab Summit, an annual gathering of social-science researchers convened by Google to discuss ways of making the company more productive. Milkman found herself in a discussion about “nudges”—small environmental interventions that could shift people’s behavior. “In the course of the conversation, someone posed a question, ” Milkman recalled. “When would nudges be the most effective?” Milkman’s research hadn’t focussed on that particular aspect of nudges, but, she said, “I had a strong instinct that they’d be more effective at turning points—moments that feel like a new beginning.”
When Milkman returned to Philadelphia, she teamed up with two colleagues, Jason Riis and Hengchen Dai, to see if the idea of temporal turning points held any merit. In a series of studies, forthcoming from the journal Management Science, Milkman, Riis, and Dai found that fresh starts do push us to change our behavior. The beginning of a week, a month, or a year forms what the psychologist Richard Thaler calls a “notational boundary.” With that, researchers suspect, comes a sense of optimism, the promise of “a new me,” as Milkman put it. To test that theory, her team looked at daily Google searches for the term “diet” over a period of nine years. They found that searches followed a predictable cycle: they peaked at the start of any given week, month, or year, then gradually tapered off. The largest increase—eighty-two per cent above the baseline—occurred immediately after New Year’s.
Milkman and her colleagues then looked at behavior by tracking the gym attendance of nearly twelve thousand undergraduates over a year and a half by measuring the participants’ average number of visits. Gym attendance peaked in January, they found, and decreased in the following months. Smaller spikes occurred at the beginning of each week, each month, and each term.
In a phenomenon known as the January Effect, the market always performs better than average at this time of year. Recent evidence suggests part of the explanation lies in simple optimism: in January, we take a rosier view of the future, and tend to bid up uncertain stocks. (They subsequently fall back to their real value.)
Naturally, if you set more realistic goals, you are more likely to succeed. In a study that looked at the role of expectations in exercise, the psychologist Fiona Jones and her colleagues found that people with more modest expectations were far likelier to complete a twelve-week-long exercise course. And once we’ve set goals, we’re most likely to reach them by creating a firm plan. The theory of implementation intentions, a term coined by the psychologist Peter Gollwitzer, maintains that we have a better chance of sticking to a goal if we think about contingencies in advance and devise a direct, automatic response to each of them. (If I feel too tired to go to the gym, I’ll have some coffee or eat an apple before heading out.) “It’s harder to break a specific commitment than a nonspecific one,” Milkman said.
Okay, enough said, I only have one resolution for 2021: to be more consistent with my Rink Rats blog posting dates – three Mondays a month with one Thursday Rink Rats weekend edition. Note: I am already late this new year. :)
MARKET YEAR 2020 – During a year of human suffering, economic crisis, and psychological trauma, stocks in the S&P 500 index rose 16% to close 2020 at a record high. The tech-heavy Nasdaq gained a remarkable 44%. And the Dow will also begin trading this morning at a record.
A flood of stimulus money: The Fed lowered the cost of borrowing money to nearly zero and Congress poured trillions into the economy to support ailing households and businesses.
Corporations seized on the New Normal: Big tech giants, e-commerce leaders like Etsy and Shopify, and biotechs like Moderna all benefited financially from the pandemic.
The rise of retail traders: With nothing else to spend money on, well-to-do individual investors went hyperactive on free trading apps like Robinhood. In June, individual investors accounted for about 20% of stock market activity on average, per Citadel Securities.
It wasn’t just stocks. Gold (+24.6%) and silver (+47.6%) had their best years since 2010.
And it wasn’t just physical assets hitting stratospheric levels. Yesterday, the price of the cryptocurrency bitcoin sprinted past $34,000, extending its wild 2020 rally into the new year. Bitcoin gained more than 300% in 2020, and it’s already up over 12% in 2021.
Tesla (TSLA), which surged more than 740% over the past 12 months, Tesla said Saturday it delivered 180,570 electric vehicles in the fourth quarter, beating its previous record and expectations. For all of 2020, Tesla delivered 499,550 vehicles, slightly missing guidance.
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A quick recap of some new rules/regulations/changes that went into effect while you weren’t watching the ball drop on New Year’s.
Minimum wage: Twenty states and 32 smaller localities raised their minimum wage, 27 of those to $15/hour or more, on Jan. 1. President-elect Joe Biden is in favor of a $15 federal minimum wage; it currently stands at $7.25.
The Stamford branch of streaming services: In case you’ve managed to avoid NBCUniversal’s ad blitz promoting the move, The Office has left Netflix for NBC’s streaming service, Peacock.
Transparency in Coverage: The Trump administration’s new rule that forces hospitals to disclose the prices of their services went into effect.
Distracted driving: A few states are clamping down on the use of cellphones while driving. In Virginia, you can’t use a phone for any reason when behind the wheel.
Expiring copyrights: Classic works from the year 1925, including The Great Gatsby, have now entered the public domain. That means, among other things, you can make any Gatsby adaptation you’d like without asking for permission or paying a fee. How about a TikTok musical to get things started?
BET WITH YOUR HEAD NOT OVER IT - Powerball's jackpot has jumped to $410 million for Wednesday night's drawing. The top prize for Mega Millions is $432 million, with the next drawing set for Tuesday night.
COLLEGE CHRONICLES - The New York Times editorial board takes the world of college athletics to task for continuing to pursue competition while the pandemic surges. "College athletic programs like to tell themselves that they are in the business of educating students about the virtues of competition and sportsmanship. What they are showing students now by example is that some sports -- the moneymaking kind -- are more important than public health." The board specifically cites the relocation of the Rose Bowl, the cancelation of the Ohio State (DI) v. Michigan (DI) game and Cal (DI) managing to play just four of eight games before pointing out: "Yet college officials are now pressing ahead with the more intimate sport of basketball, ignoring the lessons of the abortive and misguided football season. ... These so-called student-athletes are being treated like essential workers, but without the benefit of pay or the opportunity to share in the profits that line the pockets of administrators, coaches and television executives." The board goes on to note that by placing such an emphasis on sports, colleges are creating two classes of students: "athletes who must travel around the country, staying in hotels, playing and competing indoors, and those who may choose to study safely at home. Delaying the basketball season is the right choice. After a folly-filled football season, university and college administrators can show real leadership by putting the safety of their players and their communities first."
The Washington Post's Feinstein writes on the NCAA's approach to student-athlete rights through the lens of SCOTUS hearing of the Alston case. Notably, "The NCAA knows it is going to have to concede something on this issue but is trying desperately to limit how much. That it is willing to pay the cost of taking a fight to the Supreme Court over relatively minor financial issues such as internships, computers and postgraduate scholarships tells us everything about what this organization is. And the fact that the court has agreed to hear the case is a little bit scary for the good guys. Only one thing is certain going forward: When anyone from the NCAA opens his or her mouth, be prepared to laugh out loud."
BIRTHDAYS THIS WEEK – Birthday wishes and thoughts this week to Robert Duvall (90), Doris Kearns Goodwin (78), Diane Keaton (75), Frank Mahovlich (83), Walter Mondale (93).
POLITICS 101 - Georgia run off will determine Biden’s early presidency — The nature of President-elect Joe Biden’s first two years will be determined Tuesday with the two Senate runoffs in Georgia. Republicans remain favorites to win at least one and hold the Senate, denying Biden the ability to quickly pass big stimulus and other liberal priorities. But it’s hardly a lock.
Biden advisers are preparing fiscal plans for a GOP Senate. And they think they will have opportunities to work with the GOP on small business programs and the Earned Income Tax Credit, among other areas, as well as several administrative actions they can take to fight economic inequality especially on the housing front.
Congress will affirm Biden’s win on Jan. 6 and he will be inaugurated on Jan. 20. Markets are pretty much taking all the noise in stride, rising on vaccine hopes and essentially blowing off all of Trump’s efforts, including an insane call to Georgia GOP Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger asking him to “find” 11,000 votes to give him the state. Raffensperger rebuffed Trump.
DRIVING THE WEEK — Couple of huge moments including the Georgia votes on Tuesday and the Congressional session on Wednesday to certify the election results. Markets seem to like gridlock at this point so a Democratic sweep (while promising significantly more stimulus) could still knock stocks down a bit … But maybe not that much.
Wall Street is expecting noise on Wednesday with GOP opposition in the House and Senate to finalizing the election results along with the potential for potentially violent protests. But anything more than symbolic opposition and a few rallies could test Wall Street’s view that this is all political theater …
December jobs report on Friday at 8:30 a.m. expected to show a gain of just 50K as the Covid surge and late stimulus approval continue to dampen the hiring recovery. Unemployment expected to tick up to 6.8 percent with average hourly earnings up 0.2 percent.
2021 SPORTS & APPS - The pandemic will most likely encourage more sporting venues to require fans to ditch paper tickets and money and instead download an app from the team, the stadium or Ticketmaster. In one example of the digital shift that may spread, people who want to buy concessions in cash at the Atlanta Falcons stadium must already go to kiosks to convert money into a prepaid debit card.
Mobile payments and tickets reduce scalping and ticket fraud, speed up purchases and provide security officials with information on who is in the building. But forcing fans to use apps allows them to be more easily tracked or hacked, excludes people who can’t or won’t use credit cards or smartphones and denies people who love collecting ticket stubs — as well as sports halls of fame.
CALIFORNIA POLITICS 101 - Twelve months ago, Gov. Gavin Newsom’s star was ascending as an ample budget surplus bolstered his opportunities to enact his progressive agenda. Sen. Kamala Harris had recently dropped out of the Democratic presidential race but wouldn’t be named Joe Biden’s running mate for months, creating a clearer possible road to the White House for Newsom. Housing and homelessness were California’s preeminent political issues and would be the focus of Newsom’s State of the State address, which positioned housing to dominate the year (a contentious upzoning effort, Senate Bill 50, hadn’t even died yet !). For most of us, the coronavirus seemed a remote and vague threat.
Now we open 2021 with a raging pandemic poised to dominate our politics for months to come, imperiling Newsom by juicing an increasingly viable recall attempt. How the governor navigates the former will directly affect the prospects of the latter. That involves Newsom managing the enormously complex task of vaccinating millions of Californians — potentially with an assist from Health and Human Services Secretary nominee (and current California Attorney General) Xavier Becerra, whose fate could hinge largely on who Georgia voters elect to the Senate tomorrow. But the more potent, threshold issue could be schools.
Newsom rolled out a $2 billion plan last week to get young kids back to classrooms by February. Parents around the state are desperate for schools to reopen and simmering frustration over empty desks has not been confined to conservatives who already loathed Newsom. That type of atmospheric angst could make more people receptive to a recall, so there’s a powerful political incentive for Newsom to get this done. But success will likely run through teachers unions, which have long pushed back on reopening before schools are adequately safe. We’ve already seen tension between labor and Democrats.
And the governor could need those educator allies more than ever if he needs money to combat a recall. The effort to jettison Newsom got its first six-figure boost last week, with $500,000 flowing in from an Orange County LLC that looks a lot like a front for a wealthy Newsom opponent who’d rather remain anonymous (reminder here that we’re open to tips). Running a statewide campaign usually requires a lot more than $500,000, so we’ll see if the outlay encourages more deep-pocketed donors to step up.
It’s still far from a sure thing that proponents will get the 1.5 million valid signatures they need by March. But Newsom no longer has the luxury of taking the effort for granted — and these critical next few months could be, as the governor likes to say, determinative.
2021 SNACK RECIPE – We will still be home aplenty this new year, how about a tasty snack, guaranteed for three beers.
Cheesy Rosemary and Pecan Snack Mix
Ingredients Checklist:
3 cup pecan halves
2 cup oyster crackers
2 cup square white cheddar cheese crackers
1 ½ cup freshly grated Parmesan
1 cup pumpkin seeds
2 tablespoon packed brown sugar
2 tablespoon chopped fresh rosemary
2 teaspoon crushed red pepper
4 cloves minced garlic
½ cup melted butter
In a large bowl, combine pecan halves, oyster crackers, cheddar cheese crackers, Parmesan, pumpkin seeds, brown sugar, rosemary, crushed red pepper, and garlic. Drizzle in melted butter; stir gently to coat. Spread on a large, foil-lined rimmed baking sheet. Bake at 300° for 15 minutes; toss, then bake 15 minutes more. Let cool, then store in an airtight container. (It lasts a week...we've heard.)
Hands-On: 5 mins
Total: 50 mins
Servings: 21
Yield: 7 cups
SPORTS TV - The NFL’s ongoing media rights discussions could reportedly end in 10-year deals that exceed $100 billion in total value. All of the league’s current broadcast deals expire by 2022.
Negotiations might not result in much of a shakeup to the current network landscape, despite previous reports of bidding wars between ESPN and NBC for Sunday night rights.
The biggest change could be Amazon becoming the primary Thursday night rights holder — historically the least desirable package — edging out Fox.
The expected structure, per The New York Post:
“Thursday Night Football” — Amazon
Sunday afternoon games — CBS and Fox
“Sunday Night Football” — NBC
“Monday Night Football” — ESPN/ABC
Disney is expected to add Super Bowls to its package. One option entails the league assigning the Super Bowl for eight years of the 10-year contracts — two years each to ABC/ESPN, NBC, CBS and Fox — then auctioning off the final two years at a later date.
Sunday NFL Ticket rights could also be in play, as it’s not expected to remain on DirecTV. AT&T is currently pursuing a sale of the struggling satellite division as it looks to alleviate around $160 billion in debt.
Amazon, ESPN+ and Apple TV+ are seen as top candidates for streaming rights to all the Sunday games. The league could sell the package to multiple carriers and move on from DirecTV’s exclusive $1.5 billion per year contract.
A FIRST –
MLB: Founded in 1901
NHL: Founded in 1917
NFL: Founded in 1920
NBA: Founded in 1949
With Gregg Popovich’s ejection, San Antonio Spurs Assistant Coach Becky Hammon becomes the first female Head Coach in the history of the four major U.S. sports leagues.
SWAMI’S WEEK TOP PICKS –
NFL Football Pick of the Week – Saturday 1/9, 1:40 PM (PDT), Fox: Wildcard NFC Los Angeles Rams (10-6) at Seattle Seahawks (12-4). The difference: Russell Wilson, Hawks win 24 – 20. (Season to date 11-3)
COLLEGE FOOTBALL BCS – Monday 1/11, 5:00 pm (PDT), ESPN: #3 Ohio State Buckeyes (7-0) vs. #1 Alabama Crimson Tide (12-0). This game will be closer than you think, but the Tide rolls again, 40 – 35. (Season to Date 10-6)
NBA Pick of the Week – Sunday 1/10, Noon (PDT), NBA TV: Utah Jazz (4-2) at Detroit Pistons (1-5). The only time the Pistons will be Swami’s pick of the week for this season. Fort Wayne Pistons win an upset 94 – 89. (Season to date 0-1)
NCAA College Hockey Pick of the Week – Friday 1/8, 7:00 pm (EDT), ESPN+: #14 Northeastern Huskies (3-3-2) at #2 Boston College Eagles (5-1-0). Forty-Nine years Jerry York has been coaching D-I college hockey. He has another fine Boston College team this season. BC wins this one in Kelley Rink, 6 – 3. (Season to Date 1-0)
Final 2020 Season to Date (40 – 24, 62.5%)
Next Blog: Rink Rats Weekend January 14
Until Thursday January 14, 2021 Adios.
Claremont, California
January 4, 2021
#XI-21-427
3,460 words, nine-minute read
CARTOON OF THE WEEK – The New Yorker, Elisabeth McNair
RINK RATS NEW YEARS POLL – You prefer…..
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QUOTE OF THE MONTH: “What we learned in 2020? This country can’t efficiently deliver Food, Cash or Care to those who need it.” – Mark Cuban
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at Rink Rats The Blog: First Published – May 3, 2010
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Eleventh Year.
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