Christmas / Weekend Edition
A belated Hanukkah Sameach, Merry
Christmas, to all our readers and supporters.
We close out another year of COVID, economic ups and downs,
and debatable leadership in government, business, and education. More on this
in next weeks’ year end “Rats” blog.
This week let us center on being with loved ones, stream one
more film or TV series, enjoy the outdoors, stay healthy, and wear that mask
when required.
2022, like 2021, will again be filled with challenges, good
days and bad days. Through it all be positive, smile, tell the truth, have
faith, and have a cocktail now and then.
THIS COST HOW MUCH! - U.S.
inflation reached a nearly four-decade high in November, as strong consumer
demand collided with pandemic-related supply constraints.
The Labor Department said Friday the consumer-price
index—which measures what consumers pay for goods and services—rose 6.8% in
November from the same month a year ago. That was the fastest pace since 1982
and the sixth straight month in which inflation topped 5%.
The so-called core price index, which excludes the
often-volatile categories of food and energy, climbed 4.9% in November from a
year earlier. That was a sharper increase than October’s 4.6% rise, and the
highest rate since 1991.
The November prices trend came before the emergence of the
Omicron variant of Covid-19, which poses a new threat from a pandemic that is
well into its second year.
On a monthly basis, the CPI increased a seasonally adjusted
0.8% in November from the prior month, about the same as October’s 0.9%
increase.
Prices for vehicles, rent, furniture and airline fares rose
last month. Some energy prices showed signs of easing, but gasoline rose by
6.1% for the second straight month. Prices for recreation and communication
declined in November.
The current bout of inflation has several identified causes,
many of them linked to the pandemic. For one, consumers are flush with savings
from government stimulus programs and depressed services spending from
restrictions on businesses, leading them to open the spigot for goods that are
in scarce supply.
There also are fewer workers in the labor market, encouraging
those who are working to demand raises and crimping overall productivity. These
factors and many others are driving up costs.
Energy prices, including gasoline, have gone up as oil-and-gas
production lags behind a return of consumer demand coming out of the pandemic.
This return of demand has also led to supply-chain disruptions. Truck drivers,
seaport slots and warehouse spaces are all in short supply, leading to costly
delays and rising shipping rates for goods.
These added costs, at every step from production to sale, lead
to price increases for consumers, with some companies seizing on a rare
opportunity to raise prices.
How is Inflation measured? There are different ways of
measuring inflation, even among government agencies. The shorthand version
comes from the already mentioned CPI, measured by the Labor Department. It is
calculated using a survey of households and only covers spending on goods and
services. It excludes expenditures that aren’t paid for directly, such as
medical care paid for by a person’s health insurance. Its limited set of
expenditures can make CPI more volatile.
The personal-consumption-expenditures price index, or PCE,
takes into account a broader range of expenditures—and feedback from
businesses—to provide a more expansive picture of price changes. This inflation
reading is the Fed’s preferred measurement. The Commerce Department releases
its PCE estimate monthly as part of its income and spending report.
What goods or services are driving the increase in prices?
Prices are going up throughout the economy, but not uniformly.
Gasoline prices in October went up nearly 50% from the same month a year ago,
putting them at levels last seen in 2014. Grocery prices climbed 5.4%, with
pork prices up 14.1% from a year ago, the biggest increase since 1990.
Prices for new vehicles jumped 9.8% in October, the largest
rise since 1975, while prices for furniture and bedding leapt by the most since
1951. Prices for tires and sports equipment rose by the most since the early
1980s. Not every single good is affected by inflation: Prices fell for airline
fares and alcohol last month.
In this tight labor market, workers are getting raises. But in
real-dollar terms, their money isn’t going as far as it used to. Average hourly
earnings went up in October by 0.4% from the month before, but inflation went
up by 0.9% over the same period, resulting in a 0.5% decline in real wage
growth. On an annualized basis, average hourly wages are up 4.9%, less than the
6.2% rise in inflation.
Another factor affecting inflation is expectations about
rising prices. If businesses believe there are widespread consumer expectations
that prices are going up across the board, they may feel more inclined to raise
their prices without fear that customers won’t spend or decide to shop at a
competitor. This can also lead employees to ask for higher wages from employers
because their cost of living has gone up, which can lead to an inflationary
cycle of wage-price increases.
Housing prices have risen during the pandemic because of a
combination of low mortgage-interest rates, strong demand and supply crunches
for building materials and construction workers. Mortgage rates have stayed low
as the Fed has kept interest rates near zero as part of its effort to support
the economy. Economists expect mortgage rates to rise some as the Fed increases
interest rates, likely starting that process by the middle of next year. Still,
interest cost for purchasing a house is expected to remain low for the
foreseeable future, in part because the Fed isn’t expected to raise interest
rates by a lot.
In the short term, inflation can boost the stock market.
Companies may report higher profits based on inflationary price increases.
Nearly two out of three of the biggest U.S. publicly traded companies have
reported fatter profit margins so far this year than they did over the same
stretch of 2019, before the Covid-19 outbreak, data from FactSet show.
But that honeymoon only ends well if inflation is transitory,
or temporary. Entrenched inflation would lead to the Fed raising interest rates
more, which in turn raises borrowing costs and crimps growth to tame price
pressures. Many investors expect a market correction if there are continued
reports of high inflation over the next several months, because that could
cause the Fed to act more aggressively.
The original Consumer Price Index
Began publication of separate indexes for 32 cities (1919):
Collected prices in central cities periodically
Developed weights reflecting the relative importance of goods
and services purchased by consumers, from a study that BLS conducted in
1917–1919 of family expenditures in 92 industrial centers
Collected prices for major groups: Food, clothing, rent,
fuels, house furnishings, and miscellaneous
Began regular publication of a national index, the U.S. city
average, in 1921: Based index on an un-weighted average of the city indexes.
HELP WANTED – Notice how many help wanted
signs are in store fronts these days.
A strong economic recovery and persistent labor shortage
pushed jobless claims to their lowest level in more than half a century last
week, just 18 months after the pandemic prompted six million workers to file
for unemployment in one week.
First-time claims for unemployment benefits, a proxy for
layoffs, fell to 184,000 in the week ended Dec. 4, the lowest level since
September 1969, the Labor Department said Thursday. The previous pre-pandemic
low of 194,000 was recorded late last month.
Unemployment claims have been steadily falling all year as the
labor market has tightened amid a shortage of available workers. While the
Omicron variant of Covid-19 represents another threat from the pandemic,
economists expect labor market conditions to remain tight.
Claims have now fallen below where they were in the year
before the pandemic, when they averaged 218,000.
The steady decline in filings is an indication that employers
are reluctant to lay off workers as jobs are plentiful, consumer demand is high
and the pool of prospective workers remains lower than before the pandemic.
The labor market is unusually tight, with workers in high
demand and jobs going unfilled. In October, there were two unemployed workers
for every three job openings.
The unemployment rate last month fell to 4.2% from 4.6% in
October, the Labor Department said last week, but hiring slowed. While almost
600,000 joined the workforce, there are still 2.4 million fewer people in the
labor force than before the pandemic hit.
BABY BUMMER – U.S. population growth hit a
record low this year, crawling up 0.1% in the 12 months ending July 1, per the
Census Bureau. The country added just 393,000 people on net, or about one
Cleveland’s worth. It’s the first time since 1937 that the US population grew
by less than 1 million people.
This is an extreme instance of what has been a long-running
trend. For years, U.S. population growth has been slowing due to 1) a declining
birth rate as would-be parents delay or put off having babies 2) lower
immigration levels to the US and 3) higher mortality rates due to an aging
population.
What made last year so “extreme,” of course, is the Covid
pandemic, which has only amplified the three headwinds just described.
The US population’s anemic growth will result in fewer
Americans to fill jobs and to pay the taxes that keep programs like Social
Security financially healthy. Countries like Japan, where the population has
been shrinking since 2007, have already been forced to confront these issues
SHOUT OUT – Rink Rats received a lovely
note from reader Al Karnas (St. Lawrence ’76). Al (aka Frank Piskor) is doing
well, he has had a tough couple of years losing his wife Susan. But he reports
his son Adam is winning the tech wars here in California with Google and
daughter Sophie is a Captain sailing boats around the world.
SHOUT OUT PART DEUX – A
Happy holidays wish to our “Zoom SLU boys”. One of the best things to come out
of the pandemic was to meet often via Zoom with classmates and “old” friends.
Forty-five years of memories, bad jokes, good and bad times, still we are here
enjoying life and each other.
SHOUT OUT PART TROIS -
Valeria Maria Ayos Bossa is a Colombian model, presenter, beauty queen and
environmental activist. Her father is Spanish while her mother is of
Trinidadian descent.
She received a diploma in marketing and strategy from the
Executive Management Program at the University of La Verne in La Verne, Los
Angeles County, California.
She was 27 years old when she was crowned Miss Universe Colombia
2021. On December 12, 2021, she represented Colombia at Miss Universe 2021 and
competed against 79 other candidates in Eilat, Israel. She finished in the Top
5.
SNAP, CRACKLE, POP - One of
2021’s longest-running strikes came to an end on Tuesday, when 1,400 union
workers at Kellogg factories in Michigan, Nebraska, Pennsylvania, and Tennessee
approved a new 5-year contract.
Workers at the four plants walked off the job 11 weeks ago,
after their existing contract expired without a new one in place.
The backstory: Amid soaring pandemic demand for Kellogg’s
products, workers said, they regularly logged 72- to 84-hour weeks (a claim
Kellogg has disputed). Due to Kellogg’s two-tiered benefits system, workers
hired after 2015 typically earned lower wages than more veteran employees for
similar work.
The collective bargaining agreement reached Tuesday ended the
two-tiered system and also includes:
A pledge of no plant closings through fall 2026
A “clear path to regular full-time employment”
Across-the-board wage increases and cost-of-living adjustments
The deal follows a bitter battle between striking workers and
Kellogg management that included a Dec. 8 threat by the company to permanently
replace all 1,400 workers with new employees. In response, users in the Antiwork
subreddit mass-applied to the open positions, overwhelming the application
portal. And President Biden was “deeply troubled” by the plan to replace the
workers.
BIRTHDAYS THIS WEEK –
Birthday wishes and thoughts this week to Chris Evert (67), Jane Fonda (84),
Nancy Newman …famous photographer, Rick Nielson (73), Jan Stephenson (70), Dick
Wolf (75).
GOOD READ -To our readers missing
Claremont, here is a fun piece:
COVID IN SPORTS - Crazy to think that one
month ago none of us had ever heard of Omicron. Now, it's the most dominant
Covid strain in the US, accounting for 73% of all infections last week, the CDC
said yesterday.
Throughout the pandemic, sports have often been at the
forefront of America's response. That remains true as 2022 approaches — though
health experts are split on how leagues are handling Omicron's spread.
The NFL responded to a recent surge in cases by limiting,
rather than expanding, testing protocols. Moving forward, fully vaccinated
players will only be tested if they show symptoms.
The cynical view: Tests mean cases, cases mean postponements,
and postponements are bad for the bottom line. So, the league opted for less
testing.
Another way to look at it: The NFL's approach hints at how
most of society will come to view the pandemic and the risks facing vaccinated
people, particularly if the early data is right and Omicron causes less severe
disease.
What they're saying: While the NBA has different rules than
the NFL, it has sent a similar message with its handling of the Omicron wave,
which has seen 100 players enter protocols this month.
"This virus will not be eradicated, and we're going to
have to learn to live with it," NBA commissioner Adam Silver told ESPN on
Tuesday, adding that there are "no plans" to pause the season.
In fact, with Omicron constituting 90% of cases, Silver said
the league is considering shortening the number of days a player can be out in
protocols before returning to the court.
Silver said he hopes the NBA — which is 97% vaccinated and 65%
boosted — can show the rest of the world a way forward "as this virus
becomes part of our lives."
The other side: The NFL may be fine knowing that vaccinated
players with asymptomatic cases are walking the halls of team facilities and
playing in games. But its protocols ignore the reality that those players go
out into the world, where people are more at risk.
"There's going to be a time where we want the NFL to
demonstrate ... that we can start taking a different road," epidemiologist
Michael Mina told WashPost. "But I don't think, in the face of Omicron,
that now is the time to do that."
Of note: The NHL has taken the most cautious approach, pausing
its season two days earlier than planned, fifty season games have been
cancelled. Teams will break for the holidays today and return on Sunday, with
first games on Monday December 27.
The big picture: The Biden administration is weighing a
potentially "stark shift in messaging" that would — much like the NFL
and NBA — focus on living with the virus, rather than beating it, CNN reports.
"We're getting to the point now where ... it's about
severity," Xavier Becerra, the secretary of the Department of Health and
Human Services, told reporters last week. "It's not about cases."
"Sports leagues have made it as clear as possible that in
an Omicron age, their future depends on making peace with the virus,"
writes NY Mag's Will Leitch. "That future looks increasingly like our
own."
In its never-ending race to stay ahead of COVID, the Biden
administration keeps falling behind.
Why it matters: The U.S. faces an overwhelming surge of cases
driven by the Omicron variant less than six months after President Biden
celebrated "Independence from COVID-19,"
and experts say the administration could have done more to better prepare the
country.
A common theme is that the Biden administration has been
reactive (sound familiar), chasing the latest COVID crises rather than getting
ahead of them.
There's widespread agreement that the administration should
have made cheap, at-home rapid tests widely available months ago.
The reality: Only 30% of vaccinated Americans have received a
booster shot after a messy rollout ... COVID tests are in short supply right
when Americans need them for the holidays ... and hospitals are already
stretched thin by Delta caseloads and worker burnout.
Most ominously, only 62% of Americans are fully vaccinated.
And while most experts think that the high rates of lingering vaccination
resistance aren't the administration's fault, they were foreseeable.
Here we are on the eve of Christmas with Omicron spreading,
tests scarce even if you can afford them, and a large portion of vulnerable
Americans who are not boosted or not vaccinated at all — all too late to matter
for so many.
NFL WEEK 16 - Green Bay, the NFL's
lone 11-win team, remains atop Rink Rats power rankings with three weeks left.
1. Packers
((11-3)
2. Chiefs (10-4)
3. Buccaneers
(10-4)
4. Rams (10-4)
5. Cowboys (10-4)
21 teams have between seven and 10 wins, so the gap between
the Packers and the field is minuscule.
The big picture: 27 teams are still alive with three weeks
left, tied for the most such teams since the playoffs expanded in 1990.
AFC playoff picture: 1. Chiefs (10-4); 2. Patriots (9-5); 3.
Titans (9-5); 4. Bengals (8-6); 5. Colts (8-6); 6. Chargers (8-6); 7. Bills
(8-6)
In the hunt: Ravens (8-6); Steelers (7-6-1); Raiders (7-7);
Dolphins (7-7); Browns (7-7); Broncos (7-7)
NFC playoff picture: 1. Packers (11-3); 2. Cowboys (10-4); 3.
Buccaneers (10-4); 4. Cardinals (10-4); 5. Rams (10-4); 6. 49ers (8-6); 7.
Vikings (7-7)
In the hunt: Eagles (7-7); Saints (7-7); Washington (6-8);
Falcons (6-8); Panthers (5-9); Seahawks (5-9); Giants (4-10)
📆 Coming
up: The Chiefs, Buccaneers, Titans and Cowboys can all clinch their division
this week.
Thursday: 49ers (-3.5) at Titans
Saturday: Browns at Packers (-7); Colts at Cardinals (-1)
Sunday’s best: Ravens at Bengals (-2.5); Rams (-3) at Vikings;
Bills at Patriots (-2.5); Steelers at Chiefs (-8.5)
Sunday night: Washington at Dallas (-10.5)
Monday night: Dolphins at Saints (-3)
NHL 不 Bù - NHL players won't participate in the Beijing
Olympics, marking two straight Winter Games without them after they played in
five straight.
Question: Which countries won men's hockey gold in the five
Olympics with NHL players (1998, 2002, 2006, 2010, 2014)?
Answer: Czech Republic (1998); Canada (2002, 2010, 2014);
Sweden (2006)
MANNINGCAST - However, rumors of
Manning’s true interest in NFL franchise ownership have long persisted. That
interest appears to be mile-high, according to CBS Sports’s Jason La Canfora,
who reported Sunday that new potential ownership groups for the Denver Broncos
have been lining up and Manning “has already had discussions with several of
the groups expected to be favorites to land the team.”
Furthermore, plans for Pat Bowlen’s heirs to sell the
franchise appear to be in motion, and, barring some unforeseen circumstances, a
new ownership group “would be fully on board by the October ownership meetings
next year.”
That means, assuming Manning aligns himself with the winning
ownership group, he would be a part-owner and potentially an executive within
the Broncos organization by the time the 2022 NFL season rolled around. And
that almost certainly means he would not be able to continue the ManningCast
broadcast for ESPN2.
Logistically, it just wouldn’t make sense. It would be
extremely hard to be an executive for an NFL franchise and then split those
duties with preparing to broadcast games about other teams each week. It’s true
that Eli is employed by the New York Giants and still works on the broadcast,
but his role is way different from that of a team owner and potential
executive.
THE SWAMI’S WEEKEND PICKS –
NFL Football Pick of the Week – Sunday
12/26, 4:25 PM (EDT), CBS: Pittsburgh Steelers (7-6-1) vs. Kansas City Chiefs
(10-4-0). Big Ben’s last chance at glory, Chiefs can cinch AFC best record.
Chiefs win 24 - 17.
College Football Pick of the Week – Monday
12/27, 11:00 AM (EDT)), Quick Lane Bowl, Ford Field, Detroit Michigan: Nevada Wolfpack (8-4) vs. Western Michigan
Broncos (7-5). The wolfpack from Reno will prevail over the Broncos (famous
alumni Tim “The Tool Man” Allen, 40 – 28.
2021 Season to Date (49-36)
Next Blog: 2021 Review
Until December 29, 2021 Adios.
Claremont, California
December 22, 2021
#XII-5-442
3,495 words, ten-minute
read
CARTOON OF THE WEEKEND – The
Holidays
RINK RATS POLL – How much are you spending on holiday gifts this season?
___ $0 Bah Humbug
___ $0 - $100
___ $100 - $500
___ $500 - $1,000
___ $1,000+ (Don’t forget me!)
QUOTE OF THE MONTH – “Right
is right even if no one is doing it. Wrong is wrong even if everyone is doing
it.” – Saint Augustine
Rink Rats is a blog
of weekly observations, predictions and commentary. We welcome your comments
and questions. Also participate in our monthly poll. Rink Rats is now viewed in
Europe, Canada, South America and the United States.
Posted at Rink Rats The Blog: First Published – May 3, 2010
Our Eleventh Year.
www.rhasserinkrats.blogspot.com
