Monday, January 3, 2022

MMXXII

How about this, a new Rink Rats only three days from our last – someone has too much time on their hands.

2022 BACK AT IT - Despite the Omicron surge over the holidays, millions are gearing up to go back to work or school Monday (today) — and no one is sure of what comes next.

Most of the nation’s largest school districts have decided to forge ahead and remain open, at least for the time being. And the rising number of cases has not yet been followed by a proportionate increase in hospitalizations and deaths, though hospitalizations have increased in recent days — a sign that the Omicron variant seems to cause fewer cases of severe illness. But the highly contagious variant is still racing across the country, and teachers, parents and workplaces are bracing for the impact.

In California, employees at all Los Angeles County public and private schools will have to wear medical-grade masks at work and students and staff must wear masks outdoors in crowded spaces under tightened rules issued in anticipation of classes beginning Monday.

More than 85,000 cases were recorded in New York on New Years Eve, the highest one-day total in the state since the pandemic began. The number of positive test results represented roughly 22 percent of the total tests reported by the state.

 

MAKE IT WORK - At the risk of reducing your workplace woes in 2022, RR sampled last week professional New Year resolutions that workers committed to accomplishing in the new year. Here are some reader responses that may spark ideas for your personal 2022 playbook:

“Stop feeling guilty for taking time off.”—Kelly, CA

“Focus on one professional development area each month. Read a biz book, keep up with national news, improve soft and hard skill sets, ask more ‘why’ questions of my team.”— Alicia, Houston

“Own the problem and pick up the phone.”—Mike, Dallas

“Stop being available all hours of the day. Work and personal life has completely blurred since being 100% remote.”—Marie, Chicago

“Don’t continuously scan for emails all day. Dedicate time to read/respond so I can fully focus on other work.”—Jen, Brooklyn

“Review how the workweek went and plan the following week with small changes that can improve it.”—Diana, Portugal

“Take 2–3 hours every Wednesday for a creative or restorative activity.”—Caitlin, Seattle

“I’m making a New Year’s resolution to stop procrastinating, but I think I’ll make it for next New Year’s.”—Jim, Maui

If you remember, this writer’s New Year resolution was to have a hole-in-one this coming year.

 

Major events we will be looking out for in 2022:

Space: 2021 was monumental for the space industry, from the James Webb telescope launch to Jeff Bezos spraying an emotional William Shatner with champagne. But 2022 could top it.

NASA is launching two extremely powerful rockets as part of its goal to send astronauts back to the moon in 2025.

SpaceX could launch its Starship rocket into orbit. It’s the reusable spacecraft that will ferry NASA astronauts from their capsule to the lunar surface and enable SpaceX's Mars ambitions.

Blue Origin, SpaceX, and Virgin Galactic will ramp up their space tourism efforts by selling more joyrides to wealthy people. Virgin is hoping to begin commercial service this year.

This cool-looking space plane, Sierra Space’s Dream Chaser, could send cargo to the International Space Station.

Sports: 2022 will give us two big international sporting events, each with plenty of geopolitical overtones.

Beijing will become the first city to host both a Winter and Summer Olympics when the Winter games kick off there in February. The US and some of its allies aren’t sending diplomats to the competition to protest the Chinese government’s human rights abuses.

February 13, the Super Bowl will be held in Los Angeles for the first time since 1993, when the Dallas Cowboys beat the Buffalo Bills, 30-13, in Super Bowl XXVII at the Rose Bowl in Pasadena, California. The Swami likes the Packers vs. Chiefs.

The World Cup will oddly take place in November—because it’d be way too hot to play soccer in host country Qatar during the summer. Many critics have taken exception to Qatar hosting; the Gulf state has been accused of mistreating migrant workers who built the soccer stadiums and of bribing FIFA officials to secure the hosting rights in the first place.

New regulations: A slew of new state laws are going into effect this year. The most notable? 26 states and Washington, DC, will raise their minimum wages (CA and parts of NY will bump it up to at least $15/hour).

Plus, a controversial new California law that requires more living space for breeding pigs and other livestock took effect yesterday. Critics argue the law will cause bacon prices to spike in CA—other researchers, however, have said price increases would be modest.

Streaming: Netflix will look to rev up last year’s sluggish growth with new seasons of its biggest hits, including Stranger Things, Bridgerton, and The Crown. HBO will try to redeem the unredeemable—Season 8 of Game of Thrones—with a prequel, House of the Dragon. Amazon Prime Video will release its highly anticipated and uber-expensive Lord of the Rings series, while Disney+ will supply us with more Marvel and Star Wars content we’ve been so starved of.

Music: One of the highlights of the year in music will definitely be ABBA’s Voyage concert in May, where the Swedish pop legends will perform in a purpose-built London arena using digital avatars. Good luck finding tickets.

We will also hopefully see the return of festivals like Burning Man and Coachella, which have been canceled for the previous two years.

Some notable album releases: Lizzo, Mitksi, The Weeknd, Avril Lavigne (!), and possibly Kendrick Lamar. And possibly Rihanna.

Global politics: South Korea, France, Hungary, the Philippines, and Brazil are among the countries holding pivotal elections this year. The US midterms will take place in November.

 

2022 TECH - The holidays are always a bit extra hectic for tech reporters who cover CES, the massive tech trade show in Las Vegas. In fact, it starts tomorrow with in-person media events, though we decided to cover it remotely because of the recent surge in Covid cases. While the event’s timing isn’t great, it gives us a chance to think about some of the tech priorities we’ll be focusing on in the year ahead:

Smart home: After years of talking to our speakers about setting timers and playing music, how will we get to the next level, where devices respond to our needs even when we don’t enunciate them?

Sustainability: Lots of companies strike green poses, but we’re starting to see real moves to build gadgets that last longer and require less energy. Will we be able to resist upgrading our phones every year or two?

Family tech: From new parental controls to devices for monitoring the wellbeing of older loved ones, families can access more tools to improve their lives together. The trick is identifying which tech will provide truly meaningful assistance.

Metaverse: The hype cycle hasn’t been kind to virtual reality, but the hardware and software are both improving rapidly. This will be the year when we see it really take off—or fall into another trough of disillusionment.

Cryptocurrency and NFTs: Yes, it’s all still so…cryptic. But normal non-geeks will start to dabble in these markets when the reasons for doing it become clearer, and the tools to do so get easier and more prolific.

Social media: Will there be a reckoning for social media in the year ahead? Not only are its harms to children being scrutinized more closely, its ability to amplify information—and misinformation—will once again be a key factor in our national elections.

 

JANUARY 6, 2021 - 705 people have been arrested in connection with the Jan. 6 riot, and the FBI is looking for more. Many cases have entered the punishment phase:

71 people have been sentenced for riot-related crimes. They include a company CEO, an architect, a retired Air Force colonel, a gym owner, a former Houston police officer and a University of Kentucky student.

31 defendants have been sentenced to prison or time already served in jail, with terms ranging from 10 days to 63 months.

22 received sentences of three months or less.

56 of the 71 pleaded guilty to a misdemeanor count of parading, demonstrating or picketing in a Capitol building. Most were sentenced to home confinement or jail terms of weeks or months.

Three rioters charged with assaulting police officers got prison terms ranging from more than three years to just over five years.

A seemingly genuine display of contrition, before or during a sentencing hearing, can help a rioter avoid jail. The judges often cite remorse as a key factor in deciding sentences.

Many rioters have said they lost jobs and friends.

Thousands of hours of videos from surveillance cameras, mobile phones and police body cameras captured them reveling in the mayhem. Many boasted about their crimes on social media.

2022 SUPPLY CHAIN 101 - What got us into this mess?

At the beginning of the pandemic, companies assumed demand would drop sharply ... Instead, we shopped online and demand soared ... China shipped PPE in containers that piled up around the world, when they were needed in China ... U.S. ports seized up from all the incoming goods ... Shortages of one thing turned into shortages of another ... Toyota's widely adopted "just in time" model meant companies hadn't stockpiled parts and raw materials. Typically, firms produce only as much inventory as they need to satisfy short-term sales. It keeps costs low. They do not necessarily hold excess inventory.

The second reason is the specialization of product lines. For example, cars are being manufactured that consist of thousands of components. Disruption in a supplier for a specific component — such as a small screw somewhere in the car — may hold up production of the entire car.

And the third thing is outsourcing and globalization of manufacturing. So a disruption in Taiwan, for example, affects our domestic supply chain, as well.

What’s driving these trends?

A Typically, companies take the view of minimizing costs, maximizing speed, maximizing efficiency and maximizing choice for consumers.

Costs are minimized by having very low “safety stocks,” because carrying excess inventory is very costly. Maximizing speed and efficiency means lean operations and just-intime manufacturing. Maximizing choice for customers points to the specialization of the line. You can buy Nike sneakers in a zillion colors.

These have big advantages, but they do have disadvantages.

At the beginning of the pandemic, shortages were mainly driven by a surge in demand for products. Now, more of the problems originate from problems with the supply chain.

Industries that have experienced the most disruption are those with sustained demand and a high geographical concentration.

For example, the semiconductor industry is still experiencing quite a bit of disruption. The demand for semiconductors has surged because they’re used in many consumer products, such as cars. And the semiconductor industry is very concentrated in two geographical regions, Taiwan and South Korea. Manufacturing is done by only two companies.

The final thing, especially for the semiconductor industry, is that the entry costs are very high. It’s not easy to decide tomorrow that you will become a semiconductor manufacturer.

Products that are manufactured in the U.S. don’t face as much disruption because they’re not subject to the shipping constraints.

But to be realistic, the outsourcing and the globalization of trade cannot be easily reversed because of the advantages that it has. Outsourcing led to much lower prices, due to much lower production costs.

Domestic manufacturing needs to be boosted in industries that are of strategic concern for the U.S. Semiconductors are a good example. The White House has some initiatives to invest heavily in the domestic semiconductor industry to increase capacity.

It’s not likely that all manufacturing will be onshore. But maybe we’ll see more in strategic industries.

Strategies - There is a trend toward diversification of the supply chain, called dual sourcing. It’s “China plus one” — an alternative supply source outside China.

But this takes time. Especially in China, there’s a lot of investment, knowhow and infrastructure that makes operating there much easier. Companies are trying to replicate the same infrastructure and the same efficiency in countries such as India and Vietnam.

One way to prevent shortages could involve increasing “safety stock” excess inventory.

Also, making production more flexible. If you have a simple product line, and there is some disruption in one of your facilities, you can conceivably ramp up production capacity in other facilities. It’s “reverse specialization” — if you make your components more common across your product lines, then it’s easier to deal with disruption.

It will take some time — maybe three or six months, probably longer. Firms typically underestimate the investments needed to fix them. I would guess the situation will not be back to normal before another year.

POLITICS 2022 - Welcome to the election year.

The question on everyone’s mind right now is this: How bad will it be for Democrats? Will the GOP simply recapture the House, as the minority party typically does in the first cycle following one-party rule of Washington? Or will this be a beefed-up version of 2010/2014, with a massive Tea Party-like wave sweeping Republicans into power and flipping both chambers of Congress?

Will Democrats have something new to campaign on, like a slimmed-down version of Build Back Better? Or will The Other Joe With Veto Power (Sen. JOE MANCHIN ) hold the line? And if the West Virginia senator caves — and should Democrats muster support for some sort of social spending bill — will it even matter to voters? Or will inflation and supply-chain concerns continue to dominate voter fears and motivate ballot decisions, as they did in 2021?

And don’t forget the pandemic that was supposed to be under control by now. How bad is this thing going to get in the coming weeks and months — not only regarding infection rates and death, but in supercharging the culture war? And what will the ongoing pandemic mean for Biden, his agenda and the Democratic Party writ large?

One year after Jan. 6, and as redistricting resets the board, Donald Trump’s loyalty tests could fracture or radicalize the GOP. Democrats’ inability to modify the filibuster or enact voting rights protections — along with their own fractures and President Biden's sinking approval ratings — could exile them from power come November.

2022 TALKING POINTS -

Business: The big story of the year is going to be interest rates, both nominal and real. How far will the Fed hike rates — and how negative will rates remain once you adjust for inflation? If inflation remains high, even a series of rate hikes will leave real rates deep in negative territory, reinforcing the impression that all central banks are dovish these days.

Tech: Big Tech is likely to continue to come under pressure from regulators and lawmakers around the globe, as well as continued internal pressure from workers. A gridlocked Congress means states and Europe are likely to take the lead on the legislative front.

Media: The media and entertainment sectors continued to see a high volume of consolidation in 2021, pegged to the rise of streaming. In 2022, we'll be looking at how those deals will shape the streaming ecosystem. Most notably, we'll be watching the formation of a new media giant through the combination of Discovery and WarnerMedia.

Work: Companies spent 2021 trying to figure out what hybrid work would look like after the pandemic, but new variants keep foiling their plans. The fallout is affecting everything from how downtowns recover to the way we get around.

Health care: With improving vaccination rates and the development of new anti-viral treatments, it's still possible the pandemic will reach an "endemic" level — meaning the population has gained some immunity, but the virus continues to circulate.

Energy: Be on the lookout for progress, or lack thereof, in turning climate pledges into action. The Glasgow summit capped a year heavy on new emissions-cutting commitments, but big steps to transform them into reality are less certain. We'll also be watching emerging science as crucial new IPCC reports roll out, and will track unrelenting extreme weather and climate events.

Cities: Lagging foot traffic in downtowns and lingering staffing shortages could forever change how local business is done. Meanwhile, a greater emphasis on public transit and electric vehicles could reshape how we get from point A to B.

World: 2022 will be a year of seismic elections. In France, President Emmanuel Macron hopes to fend off the far right. In Brazil, far-right President Jair Bolsonaro is fighting for survival. Term limits mean new presidents will be elected in South Korea, Colombia, the Philippines and Kenya — all before Americans go to the polls for midterms.

China: Will Beijing and Washington be able to find a sustainable, peaceful way to manage their differences, or will the world become locked into another great power struggle?

Race and justice: The 2022 midterms are expected to focus on rising crime in cities, ongoing criminal justice reform and voting rights. Conservatives have signaled they'll use diversity lessons in classrooms and the quest for police reforms as wedge issues. But newly energized voters of color, a growing electorate in the U.S., may stop this backlash — if they get to the ballot box.

Gaming: Big console and PC game publishers face a pivotal 2022, as the industry’s ocean liners try to offset the swelling cost of making blockbuster games. We'll see more famous game franchises pop up on mobile, and we just might learn whether the $2 billion + invested in the controversial and unproven NFT gaming sector is a boom leading to a bust.

 

BIRTHDAYS THIS WEEK – Birthday wishes and thoughts this week to Katie Couric (65), Robert Duvall (91), Bobby Hull (83), January Jones (43), Stephen Stills (77). A belated birthday wish to Lennie McKinnon, we missed you in December.

 

MARKET WEEK - It’s the first week of 2022, a manufactured clean slate of sorts for markets and investors …

Set those year-to-date return calculators back to zero — and let us know what you’re watching most closely this year. 📝 Rink Rats investments issue will be our next Blog, January 10.

Already, oil prices have slipped 11% since their highs in late October, reflecting traders’ concern about slowing demand for fuel. The S&P 500 spent much of the past two months trading sideways, while some speculative investments, such as shares of smaller, fast-growing tech companies, fell sharply—hurt by fears that they would be especially vulnerable to tighter monetary policies. Even so, lower valuations, together with an expanding economy and ultralow interest rates, help explain why most Wall Street forecasters predict the S&P 500 will continue to rise in 2022. Investors also point to signs that each successive surge of Covid-19 has delivered a smaller hit to the economy as people learn how to cope with the virus. Many investors are also optimistic that inflation will subside this year, and some argue that increases in Covid-19 cases are more likely to slow inflation than accelerate it, meaning that the Fed could simply delay rate increases if the economy endures a rough patch.

The S&P 500 recorded 70 closing highs in 2021, according to S&P Global. That's the most for a single year since 1995's 77.

The index, widely considered a proxy for the broader market, has recorded at least 10 closing highs every year since 2013.

Yes, but: Before 2013, the S&P 500 hadn't recorded a single closing high since 2007.

Markets: The three major equity indexes begin 2022 near record highs after closing out their best 3-year performance since 1999. We’ll have a more in-depth stock market breakdown below.

MARKETS: 2021 PERFORMANCE

 

Nasdaq

15,644.97

+21.39%

S&P

4,766.18

+26.89%

Dow

36,338.30

+18.73%

10-Year

1.514%

+59.7 bps

Bitcoin

$47,124.05

+59.12%

Oil

$75.73

+55.50%

 

 

 

The 2021 stock market was bookended by meme stock mania in January and a brief Omicron scare in November and December. But in between, it was a remarkably smooth ride despite, you know, C***d.

The winners

If you followed Warren Buffett’s advice and put your money in an S&P 500 index fund, you did very well for yourself last year. The broad index gained 27% in 2021 and closed at a record 70 times—the most since 1995.

The top-performing S&P sectors: Energy, whose 48% annual gain was its best ever (thank you, soaring oil prices). Real estate was the second-best performing sector at 42%, while tech and financials both rose 33%.

The biggest winner in the S&P was Devon Energy, which gained nearly 190%. Ford, Moderna, and nine others in the index more than doubled their stock price.

So where are all the Big Tech names? They had a great but not amazing year. Microsoft rose 51%, and Apple’s 34% gain has it sitting close to a $3 trillion market capitalization. And by virtue of their immense size, Big Tech stocks were the top six contributors to the S&P’s performance.

The losers

Smaller, high-growth tech stocks faltered—just look at the Ark Innovation ETF, which declined 24% after shooting up 150% the year before. That fund is home to companies like Roku, Twitter, DraftKings, and Palantir.

Many “stay-at-home” stocks that boomed at the onset of the pandemic also fell back to Earth. Zoom lost nearly half of its value in 2021, and Peloton plunged more than 75%. 2021 IPOs stumbled, too: A fund that tracks public offerings fell more than 9% for its worst performance in three years.

What about next year?

Analysts see both opportunities and headwinds for the stock market in 2022. Most forecasters expect stocks to continue their upward march after corporations posted record profit growth in 2021 of 45%.

But analysts don’t expect stocks to surge as much as they did last year, in part because the Fed is withdrawing its pandemic-era support to curb the highest inflation in nearly four decades. The central bank is expected to wind down its stimulus measures this quarter and begin to hike rates for the first time since 2018.

5 Foods to Skip in 2022 Especially after 50 Years of Age

Fried foods that triple the calories

If it helps, pause to imagine the vat of oil that basket of fries or onion rings has been submerged in, and consider how its saturated fat “may have a negative impact on blood cholesterol,” says Amy Gorin, a registered dietitian and owner of Plant-Based Eats in Stamford, Connecticut. Not sure how to cut back? Here are three expert tips:

1. Christine Rosenbloom, a registered dietitian and nutritionist and coauthor of Food & Fitness After 50, says that because frying tends to triple the calories in foods, you should invest in an air fryer. (She swears by hers.)

2. Alicia Ines Arbaje, M.D., associate professor of medicine at Johns Hopkins Medical School, says to save your fats for dinner and to avoid them at breakfast and lunch.

3. Thomas Loepfe, M.D., a geriatrician at the Mayo Clinic, says, “Go with grilled, not fried."

Sugary drinks, including most bottled teas

Soft drinks aren't your only enemy. Bottled teas, fancy coffee drinks and “fresh” lemonades can all be loaded with the sweet stuff. “For example, the 16-ounce chai latte at Starbucks, one of its most popular drinks, has 42 grams of sugar,” Rosenbloom says.

With bottled drinks, beware of misleading labels. “Just because a drink says ‘pure’ or ‘green tea’ or ‘honey’ doesn't mean it has less sugar,” Rosenbloom says. And products touting their organic cane sugar, coconut sugar or raw sugar? “Sugar is sugar,” she adds.

“Aim to keep added sugar intake to 10 percent or less of total daily calories,” Gorin says. “For a 2,000-calorie daily diet, that would be no more than 200 calories, or 50 grams of added sugar per day."

Packaged foods with sneaky sugars

"Hidden sugars can be found in pasta sauces, yogurt, granola bars, instant oatmeal packets and breakfast cereals,” Allen says. Why's that so harmful for older adults? “Excess sugar can put stress on organs such as the pancreas and liver,” Allen says, “which can increase blood sugar and blood triglyceride levels and raise the risk of fatty liver disease.”

Adds Loepfe: “Sugars increase one's risk of cardiovascular disease and diabetes, the incidence and prevalence of which increase as we age.” And at a time in life when every calorie should be nutrient-dense, “added sugar really contributes to calories we don't need,” he says.

Check labels for added sugars — but don't fret over natural sugars in fruits or milk.

High-sodium instant meals (think: frozen pizzas)

"Seventy-five percent of people over age 60 have high blood pressure. And even if you're on medication, you want to lower your sodium intake,” Rosenbloom says. If you think you're eating a low-salt diet because you don't salt your grilled corn or soup, consider that frozen pizza or canned soup you just heated up.

"Seventy-five percent of the salt in our diet comes from processed foods, not the salt shaker,” she says. So what can you do? An easy way to spot low-sodium foods, she notes, is to look for those in which sodium is 5 percent or less of the daily value; anything in the 20 percent range is high-sodium.

Aim for 1,500 to 2,300 milligrams of sodium per day.

Ultra-processed snacks

Unless you're picking an apple from a tree or getting your milk straight out of a cow, most of the food you eat is processed — it's the ultra-processed foods that make the list to strike from your diet. “Minimally processed foods like bagged greens, diced vegetables and nuts offer convenience,” Allen says. “And canned tomatoes and frozen fruit and vegetables are an excellent way to enjoy produce processed at peak quality and freshness."

But many ready-to-eat, processed foods like cake mixes, snack chips, ketchup, sweetened yogurt and “meat lovers” frozen pizzas add food coloring, sodium, preservatives and other hard-to-pronounce additives in order to make consumers happy. And that's not good for you.

Many processed foods are void of fiber and nutrients like potassium or magnesium, and they tend to be calorically dense, with a lot of fat and salt, says Joseph Gonzales, a registered dietitian at the Mayo Clinic.

"And some of the preservatives, like nitrates, may be harmful in high amounts, perhaps leading to premature aging of cells in the body,” Loepfe says.

Make label-reading a habit. Better yet, cook at home.

 

TAX TIME - The third tax-filing season during the coronavirus pandemic is set to begin soon with more delays, uncertainty and frustration likely for taxpayers and tax preparers. There will be some signs of business as usual. The individual tax deadline will return to its usual mid-April date for the first time since 2019, and the IRS says it has been steadily reducing its backlog of 2020 returns and other lingering paperwork.

 

DRIVING THE WEEK - November construction spending data released Monday … November Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey results released Tuesday … Senate Banking Committee hearing on community development financial institutions Wednesday … Federal Open Market Committee minutes released Wednesday …

November trade data released Thursday … St. Louis Fed President James Bullard speaks Thursday …December jobs report released Friday … San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly and Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin speak Friday.

The annual CES tech conference begins today in Las Vegas. Omicron stopped some big exhibitors from attending, but more than 2,000 companies are expected to unveil innovations.

 

NFL SUNDAY - 11 of 14 postseason spots are now filled, following playoff clinching wins by the Titans, Bengals, Patriots, Bills and Eagles on Sunday. Meanwhile, the Chargers, Saints and 49ers kept their hopes alive with victories.

State of play: Here's what the playoff picture looks like ahead of tonight's Steelers-Browns game. (* = clinched)

AFC: 1. Titans* (11-5), 2. Chiefs* (11-5), 3. Bengals* (10-6), 4. Bills* (10-6), 5. Patriots*, 6. Colts (9-7), 7. Chargers (9-7) ... In the hunt: Raiders (9-7), Steelers (7-7-1), Ravens (8-8).

NFC: 1. Packers* (13-3), 2. Rams* (12-4), 3. Buccaneers* (12-4), 4. Cowboys* (11-5), 5. Cardinals* (11-5), 6. 49ers (9-7), 7. Eagles* (9-7) ... In the hunt: Saints (8-8)

Ben Roethlisberger says tonight's game against the Browns (8:15pm ET, ESPN) will likely be his final regular-season home game. And given the Steelers' improbable playoff odds, it's likely his final home game, period.

Of note: ESPN2's "Manningcast" is stacked, with guests including Bill Cowher, Roger Goodell, Snoop Dogg and Aaron Rodgers.

Lines: PIT -2 | O/U 42

 

2022 WEATHER CHANNEL - Scientists expect even more menacing weather disasters in '22, after a year of extreme climate, from the Pacific Northwest heat wave to the Texas cold snap.

This past year brought the uncomfortable realization that even scientists' worst-case scenarios don't fully capture what the climate system is already capable of.

Threat level: Some scientists who study extreme weather and climate events see a concerning trend — extremes outpacing predictions.

Scrolling through a list of 2021's billion-dollar disasters in the U.S. feels like a tour through the Book of Revelation.

Wildfires in the West were so intense and extensive that the sky turned a milky white and orange ... in New York City.

Hurricanes defied the odds and intensified right up to landfall.

Heat waves shattered records and killed hundreds.

In New York and New Jersey, three dozen died when heavy rains flooded basement apartments.

Those disasters galvanized climate activists into pushing for governments to slash emissions of greenhouse gas, but so far without success.

In the U.S., the most comprehensive and ambitious climate bill to date is stuck unless President Biden and Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) cut a deal.

Globally, negotiators at the COP26 climate summit in Glasgow made frequent mentions of extreme events. But the Glasgow Climate Pact produced no major breakthroughs.

 

TOP FIVE –

Men’s College Hockey Poll:

1.         Minnesota State

2.         Quinnipiac

3.         Michigan

4.         Western Michigan

5.         Minnesota-Duluth

Women’s College Hockey Poll:

1.         Wisconsin

2.         Ohio State

3.         Northeastern

4.         Quinnipiac

5.         Minnesota

2022 Golf Game Improvements (in priority order):

1.         Change drink choice at 19th hole

2.         Irons

3.         Driving

4.         Scrambling

5.         Putting

 

FROZEN FUN - Minus 5.7 degrees Fahrenheit.

That was the temperature at face-off of the 2022 Discover NHL Winter Classic, making the St. Louis Blues' 6-4 win against the Minnesota Wild at Target Field on Saturday the coldest game in NHL history.

"I was looking over my shoulder for a polar bear," Wild forward Marcus Foligno said. "That's how cold it was out there."

It was notably c-c-colder than the previous record-holder, the first of the NHL's 33 modern outdoor games, when the Montreal Canadiens defeated the Edmonton Oilers 4-3 in the Heritage Classic at Commonwealth Stadium in Edmonton on Nov. 22, 2003. The record book says it was zero degrees at face-off then.

But while the temperature was negative, the pluses outweigh the minuses when it comes to outdoor hockey. That's especially true here in the "State of Hockey," where it isn't just romantic but a part of real life maybe more than anywhere else in the United States.

NHL outdoor games are meant to honor hockey's roots, and going back to the beginning, the whole point of hockey is to make the best of the winter, to turn something frozen into something fun.

 

2022 RETIREMENT CONGRATS – Rink Rats would like to pass along a congratulations to Tony Mariano (St. Lawrence ’74) on his announcement of his upcoming retirement in the spring of 2022!

After competing for the Skating Saints (1971-74), Tony joined Norwich University athletics and started an illustrious and impactful career as a coach, Director of Athletics and most important – a tremendous mentor!

Congrats Tony you will soon be a member of RED, Retired Extremely Dangerous,

 

THE SWAMI’S WEEKEND PICKS –

NFL Football Pick of the Week – Sunday 1/9, 5:20 PM (PDT), NBC: Los Angeles Chargers (9-7) vs. Las Vegas Raiders (9-7). The winner is on to the playoffs, the loser on to the casino.   Chargers win 30 - 27.

NHL Pick of the Week – Saturday 1/8, 7:00 PM (EDT), HNIC: Toronto Maple Leafs (21-8-2) vs. Colorado Avalanche (21-8-2). Two top five power teams in the National Hockey League. Possible Stanley Cup Final participants, but Leaf fans don’t get too excited. Avs win 5 – 4.

College Hockey Pick of the Week – Friday 1/7, 7:07 PM (CDT), ESPN+: #9 Cornell University Big Red (9-3-1) vs. #5 North Dakota Fighting Hawks 913-6-0). It will be chilly in Grand Forks, N.D. outside this coming Friday, but even colder for the Big Red. Hawks win 6 – 2.

SCIAC Pick of the Week – Women’s Basketball, Saturday 1/8, 4:00 PM (PDT), SCFY: California Institute of Technology Beavers (5-5) vs. University of La Verne Leopards (8-3). Coach Jason Pruitt has an entertaining women’s hoop team this season, they shoot from anywhere. Leopards win this one in The Tents, 76 – 55.

Final 2021 Season to Date (51-37, .579) 

 

Next Blog: 2022 Investment Blog

Until January 10, 2022 Adios.

Claremont, California

January 3, 2022

#XII-7-444

 

5,640  words, ten-minute read

 

CARTOON OF THE WEEKEND – The New Yorker

 


 

RINK RATS POLL – 2022 …

___ I’m scared

___ Let’s make some money

___ Common sense

___ Good health

___ All of the above

 

QUOTE OF THE MONTH – “We need to stop just pulling people out of the river. We need to go upstream and find out why they’re falling in.” – Desmond Tutu

 

Rink Rats is a blog of weekly observations, predictions and commentary. We welcome your comments and questions. Also participate in our monthly poll. Rink Rats is now viewed in Europe, Canada, South America and the United States.

Posted at Rink Rats The Blog: First Published – May 3, 2010

Our Eleventh Year.

www.rhasserinkrats.blogspot.com

 

Friday, December 31, 2021

The Year of Living Dangerously

New Years eve in Clareville, California: after four days of rain (for Southern California this is a big deal) cloudless skies and 62 degrees highlight the end of 2021.

2021 was a year of many more lows than highs. The COVID virus claimed 823,000 American lives, 105,000 lives were lost to drug overdoses, the majority from opioid use. Marines from the 2nd Battalion, 1st Marines Regiment were on duty outside the Kabul airport on Aug. 26 when a suicide bomber detonated explosives, killing at 13 U.S. service members and scores of Afghans. Of the 13 American service members — 11 of them Marines — killed in the suicide bombing on Aug. 26, five were 20 years old, and seven more were in their early 20s. One was 31. Finally, On January 6, 2021, a mob of supporters of President Donald Trump attacked the United States Capitol in Washington, D.C. They sought to overturn his defeat in the 2020 presidential election by disrupting the joint session of Congress assembled to count electoral votes that would formalize then President-elect Joe Biden's victory.

Individuals we lost in 2021:

Hank Aaron (86), Michael Collins (90), Bob Dole (98), Olympia Dukakis (89), Lee Elder (87), Larry King (87), Rush Limbaugh (70), John Madden (85), Colin Powell (84), Harry Reid (82), Stephen Sondheim (91), Desmond Tutu (90), Cicely Tyson (96), Betty White (99).

Well it's finally here! The end of one nasty ass year! Congratulations to all of you for getting through it. Now as we are facing the New Year, it's time for New Year's resolutions! I've got mine already, and it is a simple one (with the unknowns ahead in 2022). My resolution is for making a hole-in-one in 2022. I have never had one, it is about time. Stay tuned.

MARKET YEAR - U.S. stocks saw a third consecutive year of big gains, with major indexes closing 2021 near record highs.

Even with the recent turbulence from the Omicron coronavirus variant, the S&P 500 saw a 27% advance for 2021 and has hit 70 highs. It is the third straight year of double-digit gains for the broad index, and the second in the midst of the Covid-19 pandemic. The Dow Jones Industrial Average and Nasdaq Composite have gained 19% and 21%, respectively, this year, helping send the major indexes to their best three-year performance since 1999.

Some traders note that warning signs are flashing: Inflation could turn companies’ and customers’ finances upside down. Many companies that have been market darlings are losing money. Big-name stocks continue to log giant one-day swings. However, individual traders and institutional investors are hungry to take bigger risks and willing to accept bouts of volatility.

The year kicked off with a mind-bending start: Day traders who poked around with stocks early in the pandemic plowed money into meme stocks such as GameStop Corp., disrupting the power dynamic by which professional investors are usually the market king. Money managers say that this year more than ever, they are closely tracking where individual investors park their cash and monitoring their trading activity for clues on the market’s moves.

Cryptocurrencies further entered the mainstream, helped by influencers including Elon Musk and the debut of the first bitcoin exchange-traded fund. Crypto prices soared, then spiraled lower, then soared again. The market for nonfungible tokens exploded.

Many investors, both institutional and individual, into options, a shift that can make the market vulnerable to bigger swings, some traders have said. Trading activity in options, which give traders the right to buy or sell stocks at a specific price by a stated date, hit the highest level in the industry’s history in data going back to 1973.

Initial public offerings and special-purpose acquisition companies, known as SPACs, broke record after record. SPACs as of last week had raised $162 billion in 2021, more than what they raised in the previous decade combined, according to Dealogic. Many of them are unprofitable; around 70% of companies going public through traditional IPOs have been losing money, a greater proportion than even during the tech bubble of the 1990s, according to Bank of America figures as of November.

The heavy speculation left some investors questioning if markets were in a giant bubble, though some of the excitement has started to fizzle. Near-zero interest rates and the central bank’s pandemic interventions have been a key support for stock markets for nearly two years now. The Federal Reserve signaled this month that it is prepared to raise rates next year and pare its bond-buying program at a quicker pace. When rates rise, investors have more options for where to park their money for a gain and can become less willing to take risks.

Investors also had to contend with one big factor that they mostly ignored for the past decade: inflation. U.S. inflation reached nearly a four-decade high last month, raising questions about how many price increases Americans can absorb. The emergence of the Omicron variant has whipsawed U.S. stocks since Thanksgiving.

Our economy was driven by the five key factors:

(1). COVID, (2).  Inflation, (3). Supply Chain¸ (4). Reply All emails, (5). Too many Six Sigma White Belt certifications.

 

DRIVING THE YEAR - Inflation, which is the rate of price increases over time, affects all of us on a personal level. We pay electric bills, go grocery shopping, decorate our houses, buy cars—and this year all of those things got more expensive.

Like, way more expensive. Thanks to a nefarious mix of soaring demand for goods and snarled supply chains, US consumer prices jumped the most in 39 years in November, and the 6.8% inflation rate marked the sixth straight month inflation grew by 5% or more. Producer prices, which can eventually trickle down to individuals, also increased at their fastest pace on record last month.

Of course, some inflation is good for the economy when wages keep up with rising prices (the Fed aims for a 2% inflation rate over time). But, so far in the pandemic, that hasn’t happened. While many Americans have gotten a raise in 2021, wage gains haven’t been sufficient to offset inflation, resulting in the erosion of purchasing power—especially for folks on a more or less fixed income.

Where do we go from here?

After months of claiming inflation was “transitory,” the Fed has dropped that term and adopted a more hawkish monetary policy to tamp down surging prices. The central bank is winding down its bond-buying stimulus program faster than originally planned, and also plans to hike interest rates three times in 2022.

In its inflation-fighting efforts, the Fed isn’t alone on the front lines. The Bank of England became the first major central bank to raise interest rates during the pandemic in order to combat the biggest annual jump in consumer prices in 10 years. Russia has raised rates seven times this year. Mexico, Chile, Costa Rica, Pakistan, and Hungary are among other countries which are tightening monetary policy to combat higher prices.

Looking ahead…as if economic policymakers needed another inflation curveball, Omicron has taken the mound. Central banks generally don’t expect the new variant to significantly dent economic growth, but they do think it may prolong inflation by exacerbating the supply–demand imbalance that fueled higher prices in the first place.

 


WAGES - A record number of states and cities will raise their minimum wages in 2022, with many exceeding $15.

Since the start of the pandemic, workers have been quitting in droves, citing low pay as a major culprit.

An analysis by the National Employment Law Project found 25 states and 56 municipalities will raise their minimum wages by the end of 2022.

In California and New York, as well as 47 cities and counties, the wage floor will meet or exceed $15 per hour by the end of 2022.

Reality check: 20 states haven't raised their minimum wages above the federal level, which has remained at $7.25 per hour since 2009.

2021’s MOST IMPORTANT COMPANY - Until recently, Pfizer was perhaps best known as the maker of Viagra. Then the pandemic happened, and the NYC-based pharma giant was taken a lot more seriously thanks to the Covid vaccine it produced in partnership with BioNTech.

That vaccine, which marshals cutting-edge mRNA technology, proved to be highly effective against Covid, saving countless lives and paving the way for a rapid global economic recovery.

Against the Omicron variant, however, a two-shot regiment of Pfizer’s vaccine offers only reduced protection. Adding a third booster shot restores effectiveness, according to a study from Pfizer and BioNTech.

But more shots = more sales, and Pfizer’s had plenty of those. The company expects to bring in $36 billion in revenue from its vaccine this year, which would put it among the top

selling drugs of all time. Thanks to its effectiveness, negligible side effects, and its ability to be produced in mass quantities, Pfizer’s vaccine has beaten out Moderna’s, J&J’s, AstraZeneca’s, and others as the “world’s preferred shot.”.

As Pfizer’s profile has grown, so has the influence of CEO Albert Bourla. During the pandemic, the Greek-born veterinarian and longtime company exec has counseled leaders across the globe, even becoming a “good friend” of the US president, as Joe Biden asserted. Former Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu called Bourla 30 times in the run-up to the country’s election, according to the FT.

Pfizer has plenty of critics, though, who say it has not done nearly enough to send vaccines to lower-income countries, where immunization rates are far lower than in higher-income nations. Leaders in Africa have accused the company of playing “hardball” and making “unreasonable demands” in terms of the legal concessions it required of governments there during contract negotiations.

Pfizer claims vaccine inequity isn’t its fault: “The low- and middle-income countries will be behind in deliveries because they didn’t place their orders,” Bourla said on a November earnings call.

Looking ahead…Pfizer’s top-line revenue could be astonishing next year. While it projects another $29 billion in annual sales from its vaccine, it has also developed a Covid antiviral pill, Paxlovid, which was authorized by the FDA this month. That drug could bring in an estimated $17 billion in revenue in 2022.

Runner up: SpaceX. Elon Musk’s company is the clear leader in the fast-growing private space industry, and it had itself an impressive 2021. It beat out Blue Origin for a lunar lander contract with NASA, launched the first-ever mission of all amateur astronauts, and, since May 2019 it has sent nearly 2,000 satellites into low-Earth orbit to build out its Starlink broadband internet system.

Runner up: Amazon. Founder Jeff Bezos may have stepped down as CEO over the summer, but under new CEO Andy Jassy the company is continuing to expand its reach into areas like advertising, media rights, and logistics. It still has a strained relationship with its warehouse and delivery workers (remember the pee bottles?)—a high-profile union vote at an Alabama facility was defeated in April, but workers there will get a chance at another vote after the National Labor Relations Board found that the company improperly tampered with the first election.

 

2021 INSPIRATION - Simone Biles, the GOAT women’s gymnast, was expected to leave the Tokyo Olympics with a carry-on full of gold medals. Instead, she took a step back to take care of herself.

It all started during the team final. After a rough vault routine, the 4-time Olympic gold medalist left the floor, stunning the American fans watching from home early that morning. Her teammate Jordan Chiles filled in on the uneven bars and helped team USA snag the silver medal.

Biles ultimately dropped out of the all-around final as well as the floor, uneven bars, and vault finals to prioritize her well-being. Biles later posted on Instagram that her “mind & body are simply not in sync,” a phenomenon that could lead to injury in highly technical and dangerous sports like gymnastics.

She did finish her Tokyo campaign with a bronze medal in the balance beam final, securing a tie with Shannon Miller as the most decorated American in the history of Olympic gymnastics.

“I truly do feel like I have the weight of the world on my shoulders at times,” Biles wrote on Instagram after the Olympic prelims.

Biles’s focus on mental health at the Olympics is part of a larger trend this year of athletes opening up about the emotional toll of high-level competition. In a press conference, Biles told reporters she felt inspired to prioritize her health over competing after watching Naomi Osaka withdraw from the French Open for mental health reasons.

Runner up: NASA’s Perseverance rover lands on Mars. There’s just something about a little guy making it to space. Around 4pm ET on February 18, NASA’s most sophisticated rover to date, Perseverance, landed in the giant crater Jezero on Mars. The Rover will spend one full Mars year abroad—687 Earth days or ~4,809 dog days if that is more helpful—searching for signs of ancient life on the planet.

 


2021 JACK ASS OF THE YEAR – Two words: The Thing.

2021 was remembered most vividly by its first month, when a sitting President and his allies attempted a coup by trying to overturn an election. Most notable was the January 6 insurrection of the U.S. Capital.

 

NCAA (NO CLUE AT ALL) - The NCAA board of governors on December 16 unanimously agreed to accept the final recommendations from its constitution committee, moving the organization another step closer to a new constitution to govern college sports.

One of the changes is clarifying language that ensures "to the greatest extent possible" that any imposed penalties do not punish programs or athletes who were not involved or implicated in the infractions -- a modification to the typically lengthy investigative process that sometimes isn't resolved until after the individuals who committed the violations have moved on.

Another change from the second draft of the constitution, which was shared Dec. 7, requires each school to make its name, image and likeness policies publicly available.

The new constitution continues to prohibit pay-for-play but states that athletes "may receive educational and other benefits in accordance with guidelines established by their NCAA division."

The entire NCAA membership will vote Jan. 20 at the 2022 NCAA Convention. If the constitution is formally adopted, as expected, each of the NCAA's three divisions will be tasked with ensuring that its rules fit the new framework. The new constitution would be effective Aug. 1.

The proposed constitution maintains existing revenue allocations and championship opportunities for each division, locking in 4.37% to Division II and 3.18% to Division III -- percentages that have been in place since January 1996. Each league has the oversight of its own budget, expenditures and distribution to its members.

The final version of the constitution also emphasizes athletes' physical and mental well-being, along with prioritizing diversity, inclusion and gender equity.

The push for sweeping change to the NCAA's governance comes after a tumultuous summer in which the organization suffered significant legal and political losses. In June, the Supreme Court of the United States unanimously affirmed a ruling that allowed for an incremental increase in how college athletes could be compensated. In July, a flurry of state laws made it illegal for schools and the NCAA to punish college athletes for making money by selling the rights to their name, image and likeness.

Many throughout college athletics had said they hoped the new constitution would simplify what they considered a complex and outdated rulebook by transferring authority from the NCAA's national offices to the conferences and their schools. The previous 43-page document has been boiled down to 20 and gives each of the three divisions more freedom to govern themselves.

BIRTHDAYS THIS WEEK – Birthday wishes and thoughts this week to Karla Bonoff (70), Sandy Koufax (86), Maggie Smith (87), Denzel Washington (67).

CHRONICLES OF HIGHER EDUCATION – Hurricanes are blowing over American universities — blustery winds of ideological disagreement, political distrust, and lots of anger over racial injustice and the marginalization of subordinated groups, all fueled and fed by social media. Under such intense pressure, senior administrators are making mistakes.

One such storm touched down recently at Yale Law School. Trent Colbert, a second-year law student, sent an invitation to classmates announcing a “trap house” party cosponsored by the Native American Law Students Association and the Federalist Society to celebrate Constitution Day. Some found the email — with its use of the phrase “trap house,” its mention that Popeyes’ chicken would be served, and its reference to the conservative Federalist Society — racist and offensive. Students complained, and administrators responded by privately pressuring Colbert to apologize and publicly condemning his email as racist. The administrators were in turn condemned for their response — their conduct labeled cowardly, incompetent, deplorable.

Administrators are caught in powerful crosswinds that make it likely that even the best ones — perhaps especially the best ones — will make bad decisions.

Yale is not unique. Storms have touched down in recent years at the University of Southern California’s Marshall School of Business, Georgetown Law, University of Illinois at Chicago School of Law, and the University of Michigan at Ann Arbor, to name just a few. The fact patterns are similar. Something happens — in class, on a final exam, or outside of class — that students find racist or otherwise offensive. Students protest — they demand statements of condemnation, swift action and public accountability. Administrators respond — they condemn, they punish, they disavow — and they do so quickly. Administrators are then pilloried — for overreach, for trampling academic freedom, for moving too quickly, for getting the facts wrong.

 

NHL CHRISTMAS BREAK – Rink Rats Power Rankings:

1.            Tampa Bay Lightning (21-7-4)

2.            Carolina Hurricanes (22-7-1)

3.            Florida Panthers (20-7-4)

4.            Toronto Maple Leafs (20-8-2)

5.            Vegas Golden Knights (21-12-0)

 

 

THE SWAMI’S WEEKEND PICKS –

NFL Football Pick of the Week – Sunday 1/2, 4:25 PM (EDT), Fox: Arizona Cardinals (10-5) vs. Dallas Cowboys (11-4). Both teams will make the playoffs and go no further.  Cowboys win 24 - 14.

2021 Season to Date (51-36)

Goodbye 2021. Don’t let the door hit you in the Covid!

Next Blog: 2022 What next???

Until January 10, 2022 Adios.

Claremont, California

December 31, 2021

#XII-6-443

 

3,141  words, eight-minute read

 

CARTOON OF THE WEEKEND –

 


 

RINK RATS POLL – 2021 …

___ forget it.

___ a great year.

___ let’s move on.

___ a horror show.

 

QUOTE OF THE MONTH – “We need to stop just pulling people out of the river. We need to go upstream and find out why they’re falling in..” – Desmond Tutu


Rink Rats is a blog of weekly observations, predictions and commentary. We welcome your comments and questions. Also participate in our monthly poll. Rink Rats is now viewed in Europe, Canada, South America and the United States.

Posted at Rink Rats The Blog: First Published – May 3, 2010

Our Eleventh Year.

www.rhasserinkrats.blogspot.com


Wednesday, December 22, 2021

Ho Ho Ouch

 

Christmas / Weekend Edition

A belated Hanukkah Sameach, Merry Christmas, to all our readers and supporters.

We close out another year of COVID, economic ups and downs, and debatable leadership in government, business, and education. More on this in next weeks’ year end “Rats” blog.

This week let us center on being with loved ones, stream one more film or TV series, enjoy the outdoors, stay healthy, and wear that mask when required.

2022, like 2021, will again be filled with challenges, good days and bad days. Through it all be positive, smile, tell the truth, have faith, and have a cocktail now and then.

 

THIS COST HOW MUCH! - U.S. inflation reached a nearly four-decade high in November, as strong consumer demand collided with pandemic-related supply constraints.

The Labor Department said Friday the consumer-price index—which measures what consumers pay for goods and services—rose 6.8% in November from the same month a year ago. That was the fastest pace since 1982 and the sixth straight month in which inflation topped 5%.

The so-called core price index, which excludes the often-volatile categories of food and energy, climbed 4.9% in November from a year earlier. That was a sharper increase than October’s 4.6% rise, and the highest rate since 1991.

The November prices trend came before the emergence of the Omicron variant of Covid-19, which poses a new threat from a pandemic that is well into its second year.

On a monthly basis, the CPI increased a seasonally adjusted 0.8% in November from the prior month, about the same as October’s 0.9% increase.

Prices for vehicles, rent, furniture and airline fares rose last month. Some energy prices showed signs of easing, but gasoline rose by 6.1% for the second straight month. Prices for recreation and communication declined in November.

The current bout of inflation has several identified causes, many of them linked to the pandemic. For one, consumers are flush with savings from government stimulus programs and depressed services spending from restrictions on businesses, leading them to open the spigot for goods that are in scarce supply.

There also are fewer workers in the labor market, encouraging those who are working to demand raises and crimping overall productivity. These factors and many others are driving up costs.

Energy prices, including gasoline, have gone up as oil-and-gas production lags behind a return of consumer demand coming out of the pandemic. This return of demand has also led to supply-chain disruptions. Truck drivers, seaport slots and warehouse spaces are all in short supply, leading to costly delays and rising shipping rates for goods.

These added costs, at every step from production to sale, lead to price increases for consumers, with some companies seizing on a rare opportunity to raise prices.

How is Inflation measured? There are different ways of measuring inflation, even among government agencies. The shorthand version comes from the already mentioned CPI, measured by the Labor Department. It is calculated using a survey of households and only covers spending on goods and services. It excludes expenditures that aren’t paid for directly, such as medical care paid for by a person’s health insurance. Its limited set of expenditures can make CPI more volatile.

The personal-consumption-expenditures price index, or PCE, takes into account a broader range of expenditures—and feedback from businesses—to provide a more expansive picture of price changes. This inflation reading is the Fed’s preferred measurement. The Commerce Department releases its PCE estimate monthly as part of its income and spending report.

What goods or services are driving the increase in prices?

Prices are going up throughout the economy, but not uniformly. Gasoline prices in October went up nearly 50% from the same month a year ago, putting them at levels last seen in 2014. Grocery prices climbed 5.4%, with pork prices up 14.1% from a year ago, the biggest increase since 1990.

Prices for new vehicles jumped 9.8% in October, the largest rise since 1975, while prices for furniture and bedding leapt by the most since 1951. Prices for tires and sports equipment rose by the most since the early 1980s. Not every single good is affected by inflation: Prices fell for airline fares and alcohol last month.

In this tight labor market, workers are getting raises. But in real-dollar terms, their money isn’t going as far as it used to. Average hourly earnings went up in October by 0.4% from the month before, but inflation went up by 0.9% over the same period, resulting in a 0.5% decline in real wage growth. On an annualized basis, average hourly wages are up 4.9%, less than the 6.2% rise in inflation.

Another factor affecting inflation is expectations about rising prices. If businesses believe there are widespread consumer expectations that prices are going up across the board, they may feel more inclined to raise their prices without fear that customers won’t spend or decide to shop at a competitor. This can also lead employees to ask for higher wages from employers because their cost of living has gone up, which can lead to an inflationary cycle of wage-price increases.

Housing prices have risen during the pandemic because of a combination of low mortgage-interest rates, strong demand and supply crunches for building materials and construction workers. Mortgage rates have stayed low as the Fed has kept interest rates near zero as part of its effort to support the economy. Economists expect mortgage rates to rise some as the Fed increases interest rates, likely starting that process by the middle of next year. Still, interest cost for purchasing a house is expected to remain low for the foreseeable future, in part because the Fed isn’t expected to raise interest rates by a lot.

In the short term, inflation can boost the stock market. Companies may report higher profits based on inflationary price increases. Nearly two out of three of the biggest U.S. publicly traded companies have reported fatter profit margins so far this year than they did over the same stretch of 2019, before the Covid-19 outbreak, data from FactSet show.

But that honeymoon only ends well if inflation is transitory, or temporary. Entrenched inflation would lead to the Fed raising interest rates more, which in turn raises borrowing costs and crimps growth to tame price pressures. Many investors expect a market correction if there are continued reports of high inflation over the next several months, because that could cause the Fed to act more aggressively.

The original Consumer Price Index

Began publication of separate indexes for 32 cities (1919): Collected prices in central cities periodically

Developed weights reflecting the relative importance of goods and services purchased by consumers, from a study that BLS conducted in 1917–1919 of family expenditures in 92 industrial centers

Collected prices for major groups: Food, clothing, rent, fuels, house furnishings, and miscellaneous

Began regular publication of a national index, the U.S. city average, in 1921: Based index on an un-weighted average of the city indexes.



 

HELP WANTED – Notice how many help wanted signs are in store fronts these days.

A strong economic recovery and persistent labor shortage pushed jobless claims to their lowest level in more than half a century last week, just 18 months after the pandemic prompted six million workers to file for unemployment in one week.

First-time claims for unemployment benefits, a proxy for layoffs, fell to 184,000 in the week ended Dec. 4, the lowest level since September 1969, the Labor Department said Thursday. The previous pre-pandemic low of 194,000 was recorded late last month.

Unemployment claims have been steadily falling all year as the labor market has tightened amid a shortage of available workers. While the Omicron variant of Covid-19 represents another threat from the pandemic, economists expect labor market conditions to remain tight.

Claims have now fallen below where they were in the year before the pandemic, when they averaged 218,000.

The steady decline in filings is an indication that employers are reluctant to lay off workers as jobs are plentiful, consumer demand is high and the pool of prospective workers remains lower than before the pandemic.

The labor market is unusually tight, with workers in high demand and jobs going unfilled. In October, there were two unemployed workers for every three job openings.

The unemployment rate last month fell to 4.2% from 4.6% in October, the Labor Department said last week, but hiring slowed. While almost 600,000 joined the workforce, there are still 2.4 million fewer people in the labor force than before the pandemic hit.

 

BABY BUMMER – U.S. population growth hit a record low this year, crawling up 0.1% in the 12 months ending July 1, per the Census Bureau. The country added just 393,000 people on net, or about one Cleveland’s worth. It’s the first time since 1937 that the US population grew by less than 1 million people.

This is an extreme instance of what has been a long-running trend. For years, U.S. population growth has been slowing due to 1) a declining birth rate as would-be parents delay or put off having babies 2) lower immigration levels to the US and 3) higher mortality rates due to an aging population.

What made last year so “extreme,” of course, is the Covid pandemic, which has only amplified the three headwinds just described.

The US population’s anemic growth will result in fewer Americans to fill jobs and to pay the taxes that keep programs like Social Security financially healthy. Countries like Japan, where the population has been shrinking since 2007, have already been forced to confront these issues

SHOUT OUT – Rink Rats received a lovely note from reader Al Karnas (St. Lawrence ’76). Al (aka Frank Piskor) is doing well, he has had a tough couple of years losing his wife Susan. But he reports his son Adam is winning the tech wars here in California with Google and daughter Sophie is a Captain sailing boats around the world.

SHOUT OUT PART DEUX – A Happy holidays wish to our “Zoom SLU boys”. One of the best things to come out of the pandemic was to meet often via Zoom with classmates and “old” friends. Forty-five years of memories, bad jokes, good and bad times, still we are here enjoying life and each other.

SHOUT OUT PART TROIS - Valeria Maria Ayos Bossa is a Colombian model, presenter, beauty queen and environmental activist. Her father is Spanish while her mother is of Trinidadian descent.

She received a diploma in marketing and strategy from the Executive Management Program at the University of La Verne in La Verne, Los Angeles County, California.

She was 27 years old when she was crowned Miss Universe Colombia 2021. On December 12, 2021, she represented Colombia at Miss Universe 2021 and competed against 79 other candidates in Eilat, Israel. She finished in the Top 5.

 

SNAP, CRACKLE, POP - One of 2021’s longest-running strikes came to an end on Tuesday, when 1,400 union workers at Kellogg factories in Michigan, Nebraska, Pennsylvania, and Tennessee approved a new 5-year contract.

Workers at the four plants walked off the job 11 weeks ago, after their existing contract expired without a new one in place.

The backstory: Amid soaring pandemic demand for Kellogg’s products, workers said, they regularly logged 72- to 84-hour weeks (a claim Kellogg has disputed). Due to Kellogg’s two-tiered benefits system, workers hired after 2015 typically earned lower wages than more veteran employees for similar work.

The collective bargaining agreement reached Tuesday ended the two-tiered system and also includes:

A pledge of no plant closings through fall 2026

A “clear path to regular full-time employment”

Across-the-board wage increases and cost-of-living adjustments

The deal follows a bitter battle between striking workers and Kellogg management that included a Dec. 8 threat by the company to permanently replace all 1,400 workers with new employees. In response, users in the Antiwork subreddit mass-applied to the open positions, overwhelming the application portal. And President Biden was “deeply troubled” by the plan to replace the workers.

 

BIRTHDAYS THIS WEEK – Birthday wishes and thoughts this week to Chris Evert (67), Jane Fonda (84), Nancy Newman …famous photographer, Rick Nielson (73), Jan Stephenson (70), Dick Wolf (75).

 

GOOD READ -To our readers missing Claremont, here is a fun piece:

https://www.latimes.com/travel/story/2021-03-17/claremont-driving-tour-craftsman-victorian-architecture

 

 

COVID IN SPORTS - Crazy to think that one month ago none of us had ever heard of Omicron. Now, it's the most dominant Covid strain in the US, accounting for 73% of all infections last week, the CDC said yesterday.

Throughout the pandemic, sports have often been at the forefront of America's response. That remains true as 2022 approaches — though health experts are split on how leagues are handling Omicron's spread.

The NFL responded to a recent surge in cases by limiting, rather than expanding, testing protocols. Moving forward, fully vaccinated players will only be tested if they show symptoms.

The cynical view: Tests mean cases, cases mean postponements, and postponements are bad for the bottom line. So, the league opted for less testing.

Another way to look at it: The NFL's approach hints at how most of society will come to view the pandemic and the risks facing vaccinated people, particularly if the early data is right and Omicron causes less severe disease.

What they're saying: While the NBA has different rules than the NFL, it has sent a similar message with its handling of the Omicron wave, which has seen 100 players enter protocols this month.

"This virus will not be eradicated, and we're going to have to learn to live with it," NBA commissioner Adam Silver told ESPN on Tuesday, adding that there are "no plans" to pause the season.

In fact, with Omicron constituting 90% of cases, Silver said the league is considering shortening the number of days a player can be out in protocols before returning to the court.

Silver said he hopes the NBA — which is 97% vaccinated and 65% boosted — can show the rest of the world a way forward "as this virus becomes part of our lives."

The other side: The NFL may be fine knowing that vaccinated players with asymptomatic cases are walking the halls of team facilities and playing in games. But its protocols ignore the reality that those players go out into the world, where people are more at risk.

"There's going to be a time where we want the NFL to demonstrate ... that we can start taking a different road," epidemiologist Michael Mina told WashPost. "But I don't think, in the face of Omicron, that now is the time to do that."

Of note: The NHL has taken the most cautious approach, pausing its season two days earlier than planned, fifty season games have been cancelled. Teams will break for the holidays today and return on Sunday, with first games on Monday December 27.

The big picture: The Biden administration is weighing a potentially "stark shift in messaging" that would — much like the NFL and NBA — focus on living with the virus, rather than beating it, CNN reports.

"We're getting to the point now where ... it's about severity," Xavier Becerra, the secretary of the Department of Health and Human Services, told reporters last week. "It's not about cases."

"Sports leagues have made it as clear as possible that in an Omicron age, their future depends on making peace with the virus," writes NY Mag's Will Leitch. "That future looks increasingly like our own."

In its never-ending race to stay ahead of COVID, the Biden administration keeps falling behind.

Why it matters: The U.S. faces an overwhelming surge of cases driven by the Omicron variant less than six months after President Biden celebrated "Independence from COVID-⁠19," and experts say the administration could have done more to better prepare the country.

A common theme is that the Biden administration has been reactive (sound familiar), chasing the latest COVID crises rather than getting ahead of them.

There's widespread agreement that the administration should have made cheap, at-home rapid tests widely available months ago.

The reality: Only 30% of vaccinated Americans have received a booster shot after a messy rollout ... COVID tests are in short supply right when Americans need them for the holidays ... and hospitals are already stretched thin by Delta caseloads and worker burnout.

Most ominously, only 62% of Americans are fully vaccinated. And while most experts think that the high rates of lingering vaccination resistance aren't the administration's fault, they were foreseeable.

Here we are on the eve of Christmas with Omicron spreading, tests scarce even if you can afford them, and a large portion of vulnerable Americans who are not boosted or not vaccinated at all — all too late to matter for so many.



 

NFL WEEK 16 - Green Bay, the NFL's lone 11-win team, remains atop Rink Rats power rankings with three weeks left.

1.         Packers ((11-3)

2.         Chiefs (10-4)

3.         Buccaneers (10-4)

4.         Rams (10-4)

5.         Cowboys (10-4)

21 teams have between seven and 10 wins, so the gap between the Packers and the field is minuscule.

The big picture: 27 teams are still alive with three weeks left, tied for the most such teams since the playoffs expanded in 1990.

AFC playoff picture: 1. Chiefs (10-4); 2. Patriots (9-5); 3. Titans (9-5); 4. Bengals (8-6); 5. Colts (8-6); 6. Chargers (8-6); 7. Bills (8-6)

In the hunt: Ravens (8-6); Steelers (7-6-1); Raiders (7-7); Dolphins (7-7); Browns (7-7); Broncos (7-7)

NFC playoff picture: 1. Packers (11-3); 2. Cowboys (10-4); 3. Buccaneers (10-4); 4. Cardinals (10-4); 5. Rams (10-4); 6. 49ers (8-6); 7. Vikings (7-7)

In the hunt: Eagles (7-7); Saints (7-7); Washington (6-8); Falcons (6-8); Panthers (5-9); Seahawks (5-9); Giants (4-10)

📆 Coming up: The Chiefs, Buccaneers, Titans and Cowboys can all clinch their division this week.

Thursday: 49ers (-3.5) at Titans

Saturday: Browns at Packers (-7); Colts at Cardinals (-1)

Sunday’s best: Ravens at Bengals (-2.5); Rams (-3) at Vikings; Bills at Patriots (-2.5); Steelers at Chiefs (-8.5)

Sunday night: Washington at Dallas (-10.5)

Monday night: Dolphins at Saints (-3)

 

NHL 不 Bù -  NHL players won't participate in the Beijing Olympics, marking two straight Winter Games without them after they played in five straight.

Question: Which countries won men's hockey gold in the five Olympics with NHL players (1998, 2002, 2006, 2010, 2014)?

Answer: Czech Republic (1998); Canada (2002, 2010, 2014); Sweden (2006)

MANNINGCAST - However, rumors of Manning’s true interest in NFL franchise ownership have long persisted. That interest appears to be mile-high, according to CBS Sports’s Jason La Canfora, who reported Sunday that new potential ownership groups for the Denver Broncos have been lining up and Manning “has already had discussions with several of the groups expected to be favorites to land the team.”

Furthermore, plans for Pat Bowlen’s heirs to sell the franchise appear to be in motion, and, barring some unforeseen circumstances, a new ownership group “would be fully on board by the October ownership meetings next year.”

That means, assuming Manning aligns himself with the winning ownership group, he would be a part-owner and potentially an executive within the Broncos organization by the time the 2022 NFL season rolled around. And that almost certainly means he would not be able to continue the ManningCast broadcast for ESPN2.

Logistically, it just wouldn’t make sense. It would be extremely hard to be an executive for an NFL franchise and then split those duties with preparing to broadcast games about other teams each week. It’s true that Eli is employed by the New York Giants and still works on the broadcast, but his role is way different from that of a team owner and potential executive.

 

THE SWAMI’S WEEKEND PICKS –

NFL Football Pick of the Week – Sunday 12/26, 4:25 PM (EDT), CBS: Pittsburgh Steelers (7-6-1) vs. Kansas City Chiefs (10-4-0). Big Ben’s last chance at glory, Chiefs can cinch AFC best record. Chiefs win 24 - 17.

College Football Pick of the Week – Monday 12/27, 11:00 AM (EDT)), Quick Lane Bowl, Ford Field, Detroit Michigan:  Nevada Wolfpack (8-4) vs. Western Michigan Broncos (7-5). The wolfpack from Reno will prevail over the Broncos (famous alumni Tim “The Tool Man” Allen, 40 – 28.

2021 Season to Date (49-36)

 

Next Blog: 2021 Review

Until December 29, 2021 Adios.

Claremont, California

December 22, 2021

#XII-5-442

 

3,495  words, ten-minute read

 

CARTOON OF THE WEEKEND – The Holidays

 

 


RINK RATS POLL – How much are you spending on holiday gifts this season?

___ $0 Bah Humbug

___ $0 - $100

___ $100 - $500

___ $500 - $1,000

___ $1,000+ (Don’t forget me!)

 

QUOTE OF THE MONTH – “Right is right even if no one is doing it. Wrong is wrong even if everyone is doing it.” – Saint Augustine

 

 

Rink Rats is a blog of weekly observations, predictions and commentary. We welcome your comments and questions. Also participate in our monthly poll. Rink Rats is now viewed in Europe, Canada, South America and the United States.

Posted at Rink Rats The Blog: First Published – May 3, 2010

Our Eleventh Year.

www.rhasserinkrats.blogspot.com